2019/2020 Season prediction game

[airi]

I got potato medal 

[Louitunes]

Well I'm rather pleased with my result (going to ignore the Overall Average table. 😜).

 

 @Old Cat Lady thank you so much for organising all of this.  It was fun and apologies that I screeched my predictions in at the last moment at times. 

 

Round of applause and hip hip hurrah's for you. 

[river]

[mercedes]

11 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

This was a disaster for everyone so you still finished 2nd. This is by far the lowest scoring event. Everyone's answers - let me know if something doesn't look right: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QP4jngmC7nCTesXD31DsChJG9KqwGNMnvTfI72QnN7c/edit?usp=sharing

 

ralucutzagy was the only one to guess Scherbakova for silver. 

Sayu93 was the only one to guess Trusova for bronze.

Everyone picked Boikova/Kozlovskii for either silver or gold.  No one picked Mishina/Galliamov to medal.

 

We were unanimous in answering top 2 for BQ8 and we were unanimously wrong.  Yuzu+Yale got almost twice as many quads as the rest of the field, but everyone except Aliev hit all their 3 axels so they were able to squeak ahead. Y+Y got 15 (16 if you count Yuzu's 4t in the 4t/e/3f - I didn't even though the toe was obviously clean because my definition of "clean" is positive GOE and it doesn't get scored separately) vs. 17 for the rest 

 

There was a tie for number of ladies 3 axels vs. quads.  Since I didn't have tie as an option, I gave everyone the points considering our scores are sad enough as is.

 

I realized that the wording for BQ7 was a bit ambiguous - I meant 2019 worlds + this year's grand prix events.  I worded it "qualifying events", which I think everyone could only take to mean this year's grand prix events so I kept that but for "worlds" I took into consideration all previous worlds since I didn't specify which one.  Luckily, I don't believe it affected the answer because Stepanova/Bukin have never beaten Sinitsina/Katsalapov at a worlds.  

 

We were also unanimously wrong for BQ10, with 13 answering Jin and 1 Tennell

 

I did not count Yuzu's 3a/3a for BQ2 because I forgot about sequences and the wording of my question was "combo", though that did not affect the answer.

 

Shockingly, Chen did not get +5 for his choreo seq., though that did not really affect the game results.

 

 

Segment ranking:

	Ladies	Pairs	Dance	BQ1	BQ2	BQ3	BQ4	BQ5	BQ6	BQ7	BQ8	BQ9	BQ10	Total Points
Sayu93	6	7	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22
river	2	3	6	2	2	2	2	2	0	2	0	2	0	21
Paskud	5	4	4	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19
airi	5	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17
Legacy and Hope	2	4	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	17
sallycinnamon	2	3	6	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	17
Old Cat Lady	5	1	6	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	16
LadyLou	2	1	6	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15
Louitunes	4	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15
Figure Frenzy	5	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14
Sukigirl	2	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14
ralucutzagy	3	4	4	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	13
TeaFrida	2	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	13
mercedes	0	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	9

 

Answer Key
Ladies Podium
1. Kostornaya	2. Scherbakova	3. Trusova	4. Kihira
Pairs Podium
1. Sui/Han	2. Peng/Jin	3. Mishina/Galliamov	4. Boikova/Kozlovskii
Dance Podium
1. Papadakis/Cizeron	2. Chock/Bates	3. Hubbell/Donohue	4. Stepanova/Bukin
BQ1: Which discipline will have the most 10's and +5 GOE elements before factoring?
Dance:	Papadakis/Cizeron
	FD - SILi4
	Composition
	Interpretation
BQ2: Will anyone attempt a jump or combo that they have not previously landed?
Yes	Trusova: 4f, 3a
	Kihira: 4s
	Scherbakova: 4f
BQ3: In ladies, will there be more clean quads or 3 axels?
Tie	3a - 4	Kostornaya:3, Kihira: 1
	quads - 4	Trusova: 4f, 4lz, 4t
		Scherbakova: 4lz
BQ4: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all Level 4's, positive GOE's, and no pops?
No	Kostornaya & Chen both got vl 3 on their FS stsq
BQ5: In which disciplines will we have a new WORLD record?
Ladies	SP, Total
Men	FS, Total
BQ6: In ice dance, will any of the medalists finish lower in the Free Dance than the overall?
No
BQ7: In ice dance, will any couple defeat a couple that they have not beaten either at worlds or during their GP qualifying events?
Yes	Stepanova/Bukin defeated Sinitsina/Katsalapov
BQ8: In the men's event, will there be more clean quads + 3 axels landed by the top 2 or by 3-6?
3-6	Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15	Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE
	3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17
BQ9: Will the largest point margin be between 1st and 3rd in men or between 1st and 6th of one of the other disciplines?
Men 1 to 3	59.67
BQ10: Who will have the largest point disparity from their worst GP event and their best (including GPF)?
Aliev	39.84	259.88: Skate America	220.04 at GPF

 

 

Overall results total:

	Total	Skate America	Skate Canada	IdF	Cup of China	Rostelecom	NHK	Qualifying	GPF
river	241	28	19	28	34	32	37	42	21
Legacy and Hope	230	31	23	31	25	31	32	40	17
sallycinnamon	228	32	22	28	23	29	31	46	17
airi	226	23	24	30	32	33	25	42	17
Old Cat Lady	221	22	21	32	23	32	31	44	16
LadyLou	214	31	20	30	25	22	27	44	15
Paskud	209	23	23	23	29	33	25	34	19
mercedes	190	25	21	30	24	23	24	34	9
TeaFrida	190	18	25	22	23	21	24	44	13
Louitunes	186	22	23	17	20	23	30	36	15
ralucutzagy	151		22	27	26	32	31		13
Sukigirl	105				31	33	27		14
Sayu93	102				24	26	30		22
Figure_Frenzy	91				22	26	29		14

 

Overall Averages:

	Ave	Skate America	Skate Canada	IdF	Cup of China	Rostelecom	NHK	GPF
river	28.43	28	19	28	34	32	37	21
Legacy and Hope	27.14	31	23	31	25	31	32	17
airi	26.29	23	24	30	32	33	25	17
Sukigirl	26.25				31	33	27	14
sallycinnamon	26.00	32	22	28	23	29	31	17
Sayu93	25.50				24	26	30	22
Old Cat Lady	25.29	22	21	32	23	32	31	16
ralucutzagy	25.17		22	27	26	32	31	13
Paskud	25.00	23	23	23	29	33	25	19
LadyLou	24.29	31	20	30	25	22	27	15
Figure_Frenzy	22.75				22	26	29	14
mercedes	22.29	25	21	30	24	23	24	9
Louitunes	21.43	22	23	17	20	23	30	15
TeaFrida	20.86	18	25	22	23	21	24	13

Congrats to the medalists! 

 

Let me know if you have any suggestions for next time.  Maybe we'll play again for 4cc, Europeans, and worlds. 

 

 

@river @Legacy and Hope @airi @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @ralucutzagy @Paskud @LadyLou @Figure_Frenzy @mercedes @Louitunes @TeaFrida

I had  a moment of glory for IDF it seems LOL

thank you for doing this,it was really fun!

[yuzuangel]

12 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

3-6 Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15

Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE

          3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17

Yuzu and Nate's quad to 3A ratio versus the rest 

[Sukigirl]

Aside from overall average, I bombed spectacularly at GPF. Looks like I’m a Boyang 

[TeaFrida]

On 12/10/2019 at 7:04 PM, Louitunes said:

Well I'm rather pleased with my result (going to ignore the Overall Average table. 😜).

I don't know what you're talking about, what 'Overall Average table' 

 

I had lots of fun, thank you @Old Cat Lady 

[sallycinnamon]

So I got a bronze medal after all and a gold at GPF predictions. Good that I didn't have a silver medal this time...whenever I enter any competition/game etc I usually end up being the silver medalist LOL

Thanks for doing this @Old Cat Lady. It would be nice if you could do this for ISU Championships as well, Euros/4CC/Worlds...

[Legacy and Hope]

I'm honestly shocked that I did so well this year. Last year was my first year watching the GP series and I pretty much bombed the prediction game. At least I can say I learned something, despite having based all my Pairs and ID predictions on what other people were saying since I don't watch those 

I actually got BQ8 right according to my memory and the spreadsheet. Doesn't affect anything scoring-wise. Just gives me bragging rights. 

 

[Old Cat Lady]

@airi @Figure_Frenzy @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @Louitunes @mercedes @Paskud @ralucutzagy @river @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida

I've been on vacation for the last week and didn't realize Europeans was so soon.  Sorry, if this is a little late but here's the form if people still want to play.  Deadline is when the first skater steps on the ice for his SP, which I believe is the men's SP in 5 days, 2.5 hours.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfZn_qmQVqMnDnTMpxRIx9y7PXr-67hGgvO1lLAX3hEqpSiUA/viewform?usp=pp_url

 

eta: forgot the entries for Europeans

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1920/ec2020/

 

 

I changed the title to include the other ISU events but if you guys think it's easier to have a separate thread, let me know.  I also corrected previous scores - we didn't do quite as abysmally as I thought on the GPF - I had the formula wrong for the totals and I fixed Legacy and Hope's score to BQ8. Here's updated totals - sorry about that.  I'll make sure to post the spreadsheet to all the answers so people can check their scores.  

 

Grand Prix Final Scores

	Ladies	Pairs	Dance	BQ1	BQ2	BQ3	BQ4	BQ5	BQ6	BQ7	BQ8	BQ9	BQ10	Total Points
river	2	3	6	2	2	2	2	2	0	2	0	2	0	25
Paskud	5	4	4	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	23
Legacy and Hope	2	4	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	0	2	2	0	23
Sayu93	6	7	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22
airi	5	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	21
Old Cat Lady	5	1	6	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	20
sallycinnamon	2	3	6	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	19
TeaFrida	2	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	19
Louitunes	4	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17
ralucutzagy	3	4	4	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	17
LadyLou	2	1	6	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17
Figure Frenzy	5	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16
Sukigirl	2	3	3	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16
mercedes	0	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	15

 

Overall Grand Prix Series

	Total	Skate America	Skate Canada	IdF	Cup of China	Rostelecom	NHK	Qualifying	GPF
river	245	28	19	28	34	32	37	42	25
Legacy and Hope	236	31	23	31	25	31	32	40	23
airi	230	23	24	30	32	33	25	42	21
sallycinnamon	230	32	22	28	23	29	31	46	19
Old Cat Lady	225	22	21	32	23	32	31	44	20
LadyLou	216	31	20	30	25	22	27	44	17
Paskud	213	23	23	23	29	33	25	34	23
mercedes	196	25	21	30	24	23	24	34	15
TeaFrida	196	18	25	22	23	21	24	44	19
Louitunes	188	22	23	17	20	23	30	36	17
ralucutzagy	155		22	27	26	32	31		17
Sukigirl	107				31	33	27		16
Sayu93	102				24	26	30		22
Figure_Frenzy	93				22	26	29		16

 

 

Grand Prix event Averages

	Ave	Skate America	Skate Canada	IdF	Cup of China	Rostelecom	NHK	GPF
river	29.00	28	19	28	34	32	37	25
Legacy and Hope	28.00	31	23	31	25	31	32	23
airi	26.86	23	24	30	32	33	25	21
Sukigirl	26.75				31	33	27	16
sallycinnamon	26.29	32	22	28	23	29	31	19
Old Cat Lady	25.86	22	21	32	23	32	31	20
ralucutzagy	25.83		22	27	26	32	31	17
Paskud	25.57	23	23	23	29	33	25	23
Sayu93	25.50				24	26	30	22
LadyLou	24.57	31	20	30	25	22	27	17
Figure_Frenzy	23.25				22	26	29	16
mercedes	23.14	25	21	30	24	23	24	15
Louitunes	21.71	22	23	17	20	23	30	17
TeaFrida	21.71	18	25	22	23	21	24	19

 

Overall Season Scores - Includes Autumn Classic Scores

	Total	Skate America	Skate Canada	IdF	Cup of China	Rostelecom	NHK	GPF Qualifying	GPF	Autumn Classic
river	266	28	19	28	34	32	37	42	25	21
sallycinnamon	255	32	22	28	23	29	31	46	19	25
airi	250	23	24	30	32	33	25	42	21	20
Old Cat Lady	246	22	21	32	23	32	31	44	20	21
LadyLou	244	31	20	30	25	22	27	44	17	28
Legacy and Hope	236	31	23	31	25	31	32	40	23
Paskud	228	23	23	23	29	33	25	34	23	15
mercedes	206	25	21	30	24	23	24	34	15	10
TeaFrida	196	18	25	22	23	21	24	44	19
Louitunes	188	22	23	17	20	23	30	36	17
ralucutzagy	155		22	27	26	32	31		17
Sukigirl	107				31	33	27		16
Sayu93	102				24	26	30		22
Figure_Frenzy	93				22	26	29		16

[EisElle]

Thank you @Old Cat Lady 😊

I will try to do my predictions tomorrow after checking all the PB stats to try to have a not-so-wild guess for Men (whole Men podium is mightly hard to predict... for ladies at least one can easily guess a russian sweep in whichever order😅)

Tho it looks like my results in this prediction game have been getting worse and worse 

[Louitunes]

Cheers again @Old Cat Lady

 

In an attempt to keep Samarin off the podium I've omitted his name in my predictions.  (Insert - Stick Out Tongue Emoji - here) 

 

I hope to keep my position near the bottom of the list as I can only go upwards next season........ or can I????

[EisElle]

LMAO looking at the stats didn't help much

I kinda expect Sasha Samarin to do better than Dima now (sorry Dima), and while I am betting against Sasha Trusova this time, I think she'll do much better in Euros compared to GPF and Nats (she must be HUNGRY for a win now) so I truly feel like calling her vengeance upon me predicting her "only" for another bronze

 

The question about ladies getting higher tes...

 

(while doing the predictions I have realized that I expect italian skaters to get pewter at most it would be nice to be positively surprised)

[Old Cat Lady]

   @Legacy and Hope @mercedes @Paskud  @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida

 

Just a reminder that there's 5 more hours before the beginning of the event if you still want to play this round.  

 

If you get it in late, just skip the men's predictions and you can do the rest.

 

Also, anyone is welcome to join if they want to play and I'll add you to the notification list.

[TeaFrida]

Thank you for the reminder. Just sent my predictions, Russian sweep in Ladies seems very likely... and probably in pairs. I've predicted 9 out of 12 medalists to be Russian, *sigh*Euros*sigh*.