General Skating Chat

[SitTwizzle]

1 hour ago, rockstaryuzu said:

Don't forget that up until now, Japan hasn't even issued lockdown orders, only requests for cooperation from the public. They aren't taking the same approach to this pandemic as other places have. 

 

That being said, i hope they forgo the ticket sales and just stream or live broadcast instead. 

 

Anyway, I got curious about the actual situation in all of the GP cities and looked up some data. I couldn't find the same data for all of the cities - for example, Las Vegas, Grenoble, Chongqing and Beijing don't report the number of active cases - but I did get some useful stuff. 

 

All info current as of today except for the Chinese cities. All totals cumulative except where otherwise noted 

 

Las Vegas (SkAm starts oct 23):

population: 2 million in the greater Las Vegas area, 650,00 in the city proper

total cases: 44,997

total hospitalizations: 2841

total deaths: 716

infection ratio: 2.25 out of 100 people

 

Ottawa (SCI starts oct 30):

population: 1 million

total cases: 2560

currently active cases: 196

total deaths: 264 

infection ratio: 0. 25 out of 100 people, or 1 person in every 400. 

 

Chongqing (CoC starts nov 6):

population: 15.9 million in Chongqing proper, 30.48 in the greater Chongqing area

total cases: 583

total recovered: 577

total deaths: 6

infection ratio: infinitesimal but this is older data and things could be different now

 

Grenoble (IdF starts nov 13):

it was strangely difficult to find data for Grenoble but here is the data for the region where Grenoble is situated:

population: 161, 000

total cases: 2093

current hospitalizations: 23

total deaths: 153

infection ratio: 1.3 out of 100 people

 

Moscow (CoR starts nov 20):

population: 12.5 million in Moscow proper

total cases: 241, 359

currently active cases: 57,731

total deaths: 4460

infection ratio: 1.93 out of 100 people

 

Osaka (NHK starts nov 27):

population: 2.7 million

total cases: 4720

currently active cases: 1615

total deaths: 92

infection ratio: 0.175 out of 100 people, or roughly 1 in every 600

 

Beijing (GPF scheduled for dec 10)

population: 21.54 million in Beijing proper

total cases: 933

currently confirmed: 13 (ie. new infections)

total deaths: 9

please note that Beijing reported a cluster of 236 new cases in June but implemented strict measures to get control of the outbreak

infection ratio: also infinitesimal, but again this data may be old and things could be different now

 

It was difficult to tell how accurate some of this data is, as different countries have different policies in place for collecting and reporting. However it's safe to say that all these numbers are probably a LOT lower than the actual number of infected people. 

 

The risk of infection spreading is definitely going to be higher in some places than others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you so much for this awesome work!

A little precision though.

160,000 is the population of the city of Grenoble itself, in France cities tend to be just the centre of an urban area. For Grenoble for instance, this excludes Échirolles (35,000 inhabitants), hometown of Kévin Aymoz, the third city in the urban area; the skating rink is at the "border" between Grenoble and Échirolles.

The total population of the urban area must be near 700,000 now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenoble_metropolitan_area

 

This is directly related to the thread, but mention CoViD nevertheless.

Spoiler

As to contamination numbers, until the end of April, French policy have been "no test, no contamination, no death" but the excess of mortality graphs show the official numbers conceal the sad truth — and I don't think it overstretching to deduct that, while virtually nowhere all contamination can have been detected, France underreporting was stronger than elsewhere. But this is the past (and I think it more to the purpose, to consider the present where we can, rather than the past). From end of April on, massive tests are been done, and numbers are accurate (though France doesn't report anymore the number of tests, so it looks as if we're not doing them).

The present in France as a whole (and I think it is the same in the whole Western Europe and part of Eastern Europe), is that CoViD is no longer an epidemic here, but there are still cases. The demography of the epidemic have changed : the elderly are now protected, and detected early and taken care of when they are ill. Most cases occur with younger people, either from a household where a case have appeared, or who have attended one of the late bars which are now somehow "replacing" night clubs (these are still closed, fortunately, in spite of the pressure they put on the government to be able to reopen). More rarely family gatherings. I attended a marriage last month, we tried not to kiss but we didn't wear masks at the dinner and the social distancing was not full, there was no contamination as far as I know. We were conscious though. And most exposed people (vendors for instance) are quite prudent.

 

[Paskud]

Quote

Regarding the Grand Prix (GP) final of this season, which also serves as the 2022 Beijing Olympics test competition of figure skating, it is being considered that both men and women will compete with 12 players instead of the top 6 GP series results. On the 5th, I found out by interviewing the people concerned.

Vice Chairman of the International Skating Federation for each GP Series athlete

　The GP Final is scheduled for December 10-13 in Beijing. Due to the spread of new coronavirus infection, travel and entry are restricted in each country, and a person concerned said that it may be postponed until the end of February next year.
　This season's GP series will be irregularly implemented in all 6 tournaments with participation limited to athletes from the host country and athletes based in the host country, and each athlete is expected to participate in only one event.

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020080501057&g=spo

[rockstaryuzu]

46 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

Thank you so much for this awesome work!

A little precision though.

160,000 is the population of the city of Grenoble itself, in France cities tend to be just the centre of an urban area. For Grenoble for instance, this excludes Échirolles (35,000 inhabitants), hometown of Kévin Aymoz, the third city in the urban area; the skating rink is at the "border" between Grenoble and Échirolles.

The total population of the urban area must be near 700,000 now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenoble_metropolitan_area

 

This is directly related to the thread, but mention CoViD nevertheless.

  Reveal hidden contents

As to contamination numbers, until the end of April, French policy have been "no test, no contamination, no death" but the excess of mortality graphs show the official numbers conceal the sad truth — and I don't think it overstretching to deduct that, while virtually nowhere all contamination can have been detected, France underreporting was stronger than elsewhere. But this is the past (and I think it more to the purpose, to consider the present where we can, rather than the past). From end of April on, massive tests are been done, and numbers are accurate (though France doesn't report anymore the number of tests, so it looks as if we're not doing them).

The present in France as a whole (and I think it is the same in the whole Western Europe and part of Eastern Europe), is that CoViD is no longer an epidemic here, but there are still cases. The demography of the epidemic have changed : the elderly are now protected, and detected early and taken care of when they are ill. Most cases occur with younger people, either from a household where a case have appeared, or who have attended one of the late bars which are now somehow "replacing" night clubs (these are still closed, fortunately, in spite of the pressure they put on the government to be able to reopen). More rarely family gatherings. I attended a marriage last month, we tried not to kiss but we didn't wear masks at the dinner and the social distancing was not full, there was no contamination as far as I know. We were conscious though. And most exposed people (vendors for instance) are quite prudent.

 

Google wasn't especially forthcoming with the French data, that's for sure.

 

On the other hand, I was pleasantly surprised, not to mention impressed, by how easy it was to get the Russian numbers. 

[Paskud]

Quote

According to the people involved, ISU is considering a plan to double the number of participants in the December GP Final (Beijing) to 12 players. If it is realized, first of all, the six winners of each tournament will be given the right to participate, and for the 7th to 12th places, they are looking for ways to rank and select the competition points of all 6 races. It seems that the aim is to eliminate the level bias, such as the Russian Cup, where the world's top female athletes are gathering, and discussions will continue until the next board meeting on 28th.

https://www.nikkansports.com/sports/news/202008050000653.html

[EisElle]

4 hours ago, Paskud said:

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020080501057&g=spo

....And how are they going to "select" those 12? Why only 2 out of 4 disciplines would suddenly get twice the usual number of entries? We already knew pairs don't exist, but now ID too?😱 and what even would be the sense of randomly adding 12 more skaters to a comp during a pandemic?

 

And at this point, if "gpf" is to be delayed till Feb and even lose its traditional top6 format, just host the Australian 4CC in Beijing instead and use that as olympic test event (especially since it looks pretty unlikely that dozens of foreign skaters will be allowed into Australia, come February)  

The sensible thing at this point would be to just let go of a "final" that would only be a major joke (since panels deciding who to send there will be 100% biased) and focus, instead, on how to organize 4cc and Euros in the best possible way: it looks they haven't spent these past month to make proper plans in that sense..

[Lunna]

12 participants in disciplines sounds sensible cuz there will be no juniors, but potential fields are too uneven and judging will be more of a joke than ever. I wonder when they should decide on 4CC?

[SitTwizzle]

Maybe are they implicitly acknowledging there will be no 4CC in Sydney? But what about EC?

I agree with @LadyLou : better no GPF and normal EC and 4CC (somewhere else if Australia don't want to let them in and out, then China seems to fit), than a mock GP and no 4CC. Well, better all of them, even with a somehow different GP, but... only if safety is really efficiently promoted. Well, maybe should it not be called GP, rather "special GP" or something approaching?

[SparkleSalad]

3 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

Maybe are they implicitly acknowledging there will be no 4CC in Sydney? But what about EC?

I agree with @LadyLou : better no GPF and normal EC and 4CC (somewhere else if Australia don't want to let them in and out, then China seems to fit), than a mock GP and no 4CC. Well, better all of them, even with a somehow different GP, but... only if safety is really efficiently promoted. Well, maybe should it not be called GP, rather "special GP" or something approaching?

 

There's really no way we can have 4CC here and it does look like ISU is abandoning it for the sake of the GPF test event. I think the idea of moving 4CC to a Beijing is better but the best idea is to just cancel everything and stop risking lives for a corrupt sport. 

 

IOC could easily make exceptions to the rules for test events during a pandemic and stop this madness.

[Old Cat Lady]

3 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

 

There's really no way we can have 4CC here and it does look like ISU is abandoning it for the sake of the GPF test event. I think the idea of moving 4CC to a Beijing is better but the best idea is to just cancel everything and stop risking lives for a corrupt sport. 

 

What do people mean by "test" event?  Is it just an opportunity for skaters to see what a venue is like or does it have a real impact on qualification or something?  Either way, I think it makes more sense for a "test" even to be an event in which the most possible number of skaters have an opportunity to try it out.

[SparkleSalad]

32 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

What do people mean by "test" event?  Is it just an opportunity for skaters to see what a venue is like or does it have a real impact on qualification or something?  Either way, I think it makes more sense for a "test" even to be an event in which the most possible number of skaters have an opportunity to try it out.

 

A venue must hold an international competition before it's allowed to be used for the Olympics. It's to test the readiness of the venue and the host etc.

[sweetwater]

38 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

What do people mean by "test" event?  Is it just an opportunity for skaters to see what a venue is like or does it have a real impact on qualification or something?  Either way, I think it makes more sense for a "test" even to be an event in which the most possible number of skaters have an opportunity to try it out.

This is a description of test events for ToKkyo2020, but this should apply to Beijing2022 as well.

Quote

A test event is a dress rehearsal to confirm and improve the competition and Games operation capabilities in order to ensure the successful operation during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Test events have usually been held prior to past Games and will also be carried out in preparation for the Tokyo 2020 Games. Test events will be organised by the International Federations and the National Federations as well as by the Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee.

 

[Songster01]

On 7/24/2020 at 1:51 PM, Songster01 said:

 

Speaking specifically of the Sixteen Mile Road venue hosting ACI, Oakville is in Halton Region, which happily finally joined Toronto in making masks mandatory in public indoor spaces on the 22nd.  So that could help _IF_ people wear them properly and extra security is hired to make sure people keep them on properly, none of the uncovered noses and mouths nonsense, which I do see quite often unfortunately, despite the signs showing proper coverage.  Also specific to the Oakville rink: on the pro side the hockey glass could protect the skaters from fans' breath in the lower seats.  On the con side: people sitting higher up would face no wall.  And this study of an outbreak at a German meatpacking plant showed the virus had no problem moving more than 8m in a cold space with minimal ventilation and no filtration in the HVAC:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1286684497363247104?cxt=HHwWgIC1tfaunNsjAAAA  The Sixteen Mile venue is newish, but how good is its filtration (if any exists!) and ventilation?  There are only two narrow exits to the main arena that might provide some very limited and localized ventilation since they open into another cool space typically full of people at ACI.  So although proper masks would definitely be helpful in keeping the viral load down, when you'd have a packed space full of people yelling for a non-essential activity, like fans attending sports and performing arts, I would still not want to risk it personally.  While one might hope for rigorous compliance by Skate Canada, I don't have enough trust in skating feds to take care of people's safety.  Hoping SC learned their lesson after Worlds re: fans and safety, is basically just that, a hope.  They will talk a good game and might have decent control of athletes, their teams, and volunteers/staff when they enter the arena, but regarding the handling of fans the proof is in how they would control their behavior and facilitate good hygiene.  And we have no good examples to point to point to, since Worlds rightly was cancelled.  I recall both years I attended ACI in Oakville that security had a problem going after illegal cameras.  They would definitely need more people to patrol the long lines and then the entire stands regularly to take care of people not following mask guidelines. 

 

Anyway, if the province maintains its Stage 2-3 guidelines (Halton is moving to Stage 3 this week), which would mean a maximum of 50 people indoors, fans are not a viable financial prospect for ACI.  Not enough allowed inside to be considered viable, thanks to the costs incurred by fans' attendance.  In fact, it's likely the athletes/their teams/rink staff/volunteers surpass that number anyway and would have to be staggered indoors (perhaps set up tents outside for overflow of essential folks?).  The province has said it plans to maintain Stage 3 until a vaccine arrives here, and hopefully they will keep their word.  So ACI without fans seems like the best to hope for in this province, unless the situation materially changes for the better regarding the pandemic.

 

 

Sorry for quoting my own post here, but you might like to consult the article linked to in the epidemiologist's tweet in the quote on aerosolization of the virus in a cold German meat packing plant.  It's one of the more recent articles showing up on aerosolization of the virus that show that lack of good ventilation indoors makes a cold building a happy playground for COVID-19.  GPs would apparently appear later than normal, possibly after the start of the flu season, which further complicates matters.  Even if the flu season is mild, it still means that many more people will need testing as they try to figure out what infection they have.  More people may need to isolate while awaiting results/end of symptoms.  Moreover, schools and childcare likely will be be open and provide fresh sources of infection.  Bars may also be open and provide more of the same.  How much so depends partly on luck, but mostly on plans that actually work to keep infections very low.  So keeping numbers down to the bare minimum necessary to staff a competition and obsessively clean and monitor a space would be crucial.  Fans anywhere, even in places that seem to have successfully controlled the virus, would be an unnecessary risk, so at any competition I'd hope they'd keep fans out.  Here in Ontario for now we are only allowed 50 people indoors and only if masked, so I wouldn't be shocked if they had to stagger different disciplines at an event to fit that number.  It's possible they might decide to loosen things like Québec did and up the numbers somewhat, but I rather hope they do not.  I think we are already pushing things here with bars and indoor dining. 

 

I hate the geographically close rule, especially if skaters are required to do 2 events (hopefully the rumours suggesting they won't have to do two are correct).  I would feel sick if any skaters training here in Canada had to decide whether going to the US was worth the risk if it was left to them to decide.  A chart showing current positivity rates in the US by state: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1291251411007803395/photo/1

Note that Nevada remains firmly in the red zone for positivity of tests, at over 18% atm.  Not some place they should be hosting an event at.  Yes, I know the numbers will change over time, one way or another, but multiple peaks can happen in any place that isn't vigilant.  If it much happen pick a state that is most likely to handle the disease well in the long term, with a proactive governor and more mature and community-minded populace. 

[rockstaryuzu]

14 hours ago, LadyLou said:

just host the Australian 4CC in Beijing instead and use that as olympic test event

Not a bad idea. 

 

Another option is to just make next year's Cup of China the test event and hold that in Beijing. 

 

[rockstaryuzu]

10 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

IOC could easily make exceptions to the rules for test events during a pandemic and stop this madness.

The longer this goes on, the more likely that the IOC will have to do this. 

[sallycinnamon]

It's fair there won't be virtual competitions, and I hope it won't return as an option in case they won't be able to organize the GP series. Many Americans were hoping for virtual comps which I disagree with, it is too risky in terms of judging in my opinion and the format wouldn't make much sense. To record programs at the place skaters practice wouldn't be called competitions and the scores could be easily manipulated.

So I've just read Chen thought there would be virtual comps and I disagree with him too (I haven't read the NBC article itself).

 

ISU's decision raised more questions but I sort of understand they don't want to cancel all international competitions in the fall. Skaters need competitons after such a long time and not everyone will be able to compete at domestic events. Some big federations would have it maybe easier, but small feds that don't even have regionals, would be in trouble.

I don't know how they will handle some things (Skate America in general, Osaka, GPF being in China), but I guess we will know more by the end of the month.