Which GP(s) do you think Yuzu will choose?

[Paskud]

6 minutes ago, airi said:

It would be interesting if Nate wouldn't want SA, though I mean, unlikely, but if for various reasons he choose something else... and it's GP, nothing is completely impossible.

I thought about it already and for me it wouldn't change that much. Only chances for Shoma at SkAm are this way higher.  On other hand this would open a possibility for Zuz at NHK. Hmm, but I still think USfed will want their wonder boy on home ice, so:

 

SkAm: Nate/?Vince? + Boyang/Kolyada/Shoma

SkCa: Zuz + Boyang/Kolyada + Keegan

IdF: Nate/ Vince + Shoma/Kolyada

CoC: Nate/Vince/?Zuz? + Boyang + ?Keegan?

CoR: Nate/Zuz + Kolyada + ?Keegan?

NHK: Vince + Shoma

 

Plot twist: Zuzu lurks here and picks SkAm and IdF only to troll us all.

[CiaoCiao]

On 28 maggio 2019 at 2:50 PM, Paskud said:

Plot twist: Zuzu lurks here and picks SkAm and IdF only to troll us all.

 

Ahahahaha I'll have nothing against it if he goes to IdF because it's the only GP where I can actually go...

But I'll be happy to see Nathan too, because I saw him last year at IdF and I started to like him too or maybe HIS CURLS uhh 

[shanshani]

On 5/28/2019 at 8:50 PM, Paskud said:

I thought about it already and for me it wouldn't change that much. Only chances for Shoma at SkAm are this way higher.  On other hand this would open a possibility for Zuz at NHK. Hmm, but I still think USfed will want their wonder boy on home ice, so:

 

SkAm: Nate/?Vince? + Boyang/Kolyada/Shoma

SkCa: Zuz + Boyang/Kolyada + Keegan

IdF: Nate/ Vince + Shoma/Kolyada

CoC: Nate/Vince/?Zuz? + Boyang + ?Keegan?

CoR: Nate/Zuz + Kolyada + ?Keegan?

NHK: Vince + Shoma

 

Plot twist: Zuzu lurks here and picks SkAm and IdF only to troll us all.

considering I logicked myself into saying Yuzu would go to IdF, I would remain untrolled. Muahahaha. ^{I still want CoC. C'mon, Masquerade has to be a sign, right? RIGHT?}

 

9 minutes ago, CiaoCiao said:

 

Ahahahaha I'll have nothing against it if he goes to IdF because it's the only GP where I can actually go...

But I'll be happy to see Nathan too, because I saw him last year at IdF and I started to like him too or maybe HIS CURLS uhh 

Gotta hand it to him, Nathan has great hair. DEFY THOSE ASIANS HAVE STICK-STRAIGHT HAIR STEREOTYPES, NATE!

[Dreamer]

I am sure Nathan perms his hair.  I like Nathan, he seems to be a likeable young man.

What I don't like is unfair judging and biased calls.  If underrotations are called on one skater in an event, they should be called on others in the same event for sure.

Judges need to follow their own d**m handbook of ISU rules!!!

[Old Cat Lady]

3 hours ago, Dreamer said:

I am sure Nathan perms his hair.   

 

Huh. That never occurred to me but now that I think about it, I don’t think there’s any pictures of Nathan with curly hair as a junior 

 

 

The more I think about, the less I think that the ISU sways the assignments that much except in special circumstances like GP Finland.

 

Firstly, they don’t seem to do a ton of research on anything so I doubt they have a great understanding of fan bases outside of putting hometown favorites at their event.

 

secondly, it makes the most business sense to put yuzu at the potentially weakest event available and they haven’t seemed concerned about that in the past. 

 

I have doubts about yuzu being at COC because I got the impression from an article that the fans are extra crazy for him there and it made him uncomfortable. You guys seem to think rostelecom is unlikely because of it being clumped closely with other events. I got the impression that skaters in general don’t like idf because of the poor organization. Then the question is whether Nathan wants skate Canada. 

 

It does seem like skate Canada and idf offer the most strategic advantage if yuzu wants nhk. 

 

It’s in both jsf and isu’s interest to keep Shoma and yuzu separate as far as they can tell, though in practice, I have doubts

[Anki]

On 5/28/2019 at 9:02 AM, Old Cat Lady said:

 

From the ISU perspective:

France has Papadakis/Cizeron and James/Cipres

US has Nathan

China has Sui/Han and Boyang but not sure how popular they are

Japan has a lot of choices

Russia has a lot of choices

Canada has no strong local draws.

 

Yuzu is easily the biggest draw internationally and is going to increase sales in every event except NHK, which will likely sell out anyway.  I'm guessing even Skate America would benefit more from him than Nathan.  eta: Skating is popular in Russia. Rostelecom could probably sell out without him as well.

I don't know if Nathan is popular, per se, but he is a 2 time world champion now and the most hyped skater in North America. Skate America and Skate Canada are the only events that Nathan can be a somewhat decent substitute for Yuzu, especially if Shoma is sent as well.  I don't think Nathan has enough drawing power to impact any other event.

 

You only need to look at the feeble turnout for Stars on Ice Us this year (when it is already very cheap) to understand that Nathan has no drawing power even in the US. 

So I highly doubt where he can draw crowds is factor in where he is placed. At the end of the day it will be the events that suits his college schedule the most.  

 

I don't know, Yuzu might want to go Finlandia this year given Finland is his new lucky place... in which case Skate Canada would be too close and IDF would make more sense. But then his priority is to prevent injuries this year in which case the less jet lags the better, so ACI and SC may still the better choice. I do think a large contributor to his injury at RoC is jet lag.. he himself mentioned that his loop wasn't working well because of the long flight.  

[ralucutzagy]

Omg, it's already June! Soon we will know the GP assignments !!! can't wait!

[Muralla17]

6 hours ago, Anki said:

 

You only need to look at the feeble turnout for Stars on Ice Us this year (when it is already very cheap) to understand that Nathan has no drawing power even in the US. 

So I highly doubt where he can draw crowds is factor in where he is placed. At the end of the day it will be the events that suits his college schedule the most.  

 

I don't know, Yuzu might want to go Finlandia this year given Finland is his new lucky place... in which case Skate Canada would be too close and IDF would make more sense. But then his priority is to prevent injuries this year in which case the less jet lags the better, so ACI and SC may still the better choice. I do think a large contributor to his injury at RoC is jet lag.. he himself mentioned that his loop wasn't working well because of the long flight.  

To Finland? I am lost... I think. 

Which competition will take place in Finland? Because no GPF there.... 

 

[Veveco]

20 minutes ago, Muralla17 said:

To Finland? I am lost... I think. 

Which competition will take place in Finland? Because no GPF there.... 

 

The Finlandia trophy, a challenger, not GP. 

 

Though I personally have big doubts about Yuzu going to Finlandia. It seems more logical to adapt your challenger choice based on gp assignments than the other way around (since GP assignments are not in your control, at least not fully). Going to IDF because of Finlandia is a strange reasoning to me. ACI makes much more sense in terms of logistics to me, regardless of GP assignment, but that's another topic. 

[Muralla17]

31 minutes ago, Veveco said:

The Finlandia trophy, a challenger, not GP. 

 

Though I personally have big doubts about Yuzu going to Finlandia. It seems more logical to adapt your challenger choice based on gp assignments than the other way around (since GP assignments are not in your control, at least not fully). Going to IDF because of Finlandia is a strange reasoning to me. ACI makes much more sense in terms of logistics to me, regardless of GP assignment, but that's another topic. 

Can you please tell me more about the challenger you mention... I have never Heard about it. Which kind of competition is it? When does it take place? Any other info is really appreciate. Thanks! 

[sallycinnamon]

6 minutes ago, Muralla17 said:

Can you please tell me more about the challenger you mention... I have never Heard about it. Which kind of competition is it? When does it take place? Any other info is really appreciate. Thanks! 

 

It takes places in Finland in October, and it's one of the Challenger events. Yuzu also competed there twice, in 2012 and 2013. He won both events  (Finland is really a lucky place for him!)

You can find more info about the upcoming event here: https://www.finlandiatrophy.com/en/

[Sombreuil]

@Muralla17 this is copied from another thread from @sallycinnamon and gives you the dates of the Challenger competitions.

Posted May 13

ISU has published the official calendar for the next season:

 

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/21148-isu-communication-2250/file

 

• There'll be 10 Challenger competitions (ACI, Lombardia Trophy, US Classic, Nepela Trophy, Nebelhorn Trophy, Finlandia Trophy, Ice Star, Asian Trophy, Warsaw Cup and Golden Spin is the last one).
• GP series as we know (SA, SC, IdF, CoC, CoR, NHK Trophy in this order & GPF in Torino).
• Junior GP Series (Courchevel/FRA, Lake Placid/USA, Riga/LAT, Chelyabinsk/RUS, Gdansk/POL, Zagreb/CRO, Egna/ITA & JGPF in Torino).
• Europeans will be in Graz/AUT between 20-26 January, 4CC will be in Seoul between 3-9 February, Junior Worlds in Tallinn/EST between 2-8 March and then Worlds as we know in Montreal (16-22 March).
• Some new or relatively new small competitions are in the calendar, like Tayside Trophy in GBR in August, Mexican Open in September, Denis Ten Memorial Challenge in Almaty in October, Budapest Trophy in October etc...

[Muralla17]

8 minutes ago, sallycinnamon said:

 

It takes places in Finland in October, and it's one of the Challenger events. Yuzu also competed there twice, in 2012 and 2013. He won both events  (Finland is really a lucky place for him!)

You can find more info about the upcoming event here: https://www.finlandiatrophy.com/en/

Thanks a lot. Very interesting.... 

How and when it is announce which skaters do take part in each challengue? 😊

[sallycinnamon]

On 6/3/2019 at 12:08 AM, Muralla17 said:

Thanks a lot. Very interesting.... 

How and when it is announce which skaters do take part in each challengue? 😊

 

List of competitors are published on the event page after the entry deadline - which is 30 days before the competition. Some skaters announce their participation before that.

For example last season Yuzu's participation at ACI was announced in the end of July.

[IceWings]

On 5/28/2019 at 5:01 AM, shanshani said:

Noooo NA fans have Worlds, for fans in Asia if Yuzu doesn't go to CoC or 4CC then there's only NHK and Jnats, both of which are nearly impossible for non-Japanese fans to get tickets to T_T

 

^{screw superstition, please come to CoC Yuzu. it would improve China-Japan relations. do it for world peace}

 

I guess I don't hate the prospect of IdF for various personal reason though, plus the tickets might be less of a bloodbath.

 

Thinking it over, you guys seem to have covered all the speculative bases. The core questions seems to be

1. Which stops fit Nathan's schedule the best

2. Yuzu or Shoma at NHK (probably not both--they didn't meet last year either even though they could have)

3. Relative importance of skaters' choice vs fed preference vs ISU moneymaking

 

The only stop that's almost certainly a lock is Nate at SkAm. I think one factor you guys didn't discuss re: which other stop Nathan will pick is that there's far less jetlag involved in going to SCI than to other places, even if the travel times aren't that different. I don't know how good or bad at dealing with jetlag Nathan is, but I think it's at least as much of a factor as a couple extra hours of travel time. Therefore I think the odds of Nate at SCI are better than average, even if Kelowna isn't particularly easy for him to get to. I'm also on the skeptical side about Nathan picking NHK because of US Thanksgiving--it eats into exam time, JSF almost certainly doesn't want him, it's a pretty long journey, he'll have to face Shoma on hostile territory, and he might not want to compete so close to GPF either. So I think I'm leaning SkAm+SCI as most likely for him--in fact, since they are back to back, he could just go Las Vegas -> Kelowna and not deal with traveling back and forth from Yale. Yes, he misses more class and has to compete two weekends in a row, but on the other hand literally everything else is easier plus Nate has pretty solid stamina and I'm sure he could arrange accommodations at school.

 

So that leaves the next question, Yuzu or Shoma at NHK? I think Yuzu is more likely. Because of World's placements, he gets to pick before Shoma whatever JSF's preferences are regarding the national champion, and I really doubt JSF is going to outright refuse Yuzu in order to have Shoma. There's also a non-zero chance that JSF decides to have both Yuzu and Shoma. Therefore I think that as long as Yuzu wants NHK he gets NHK, and I'm not convinced that Yuzu hates competing near GPF enough to outweigh his love of Japan/sense of responsibility to Japanese fans/feelings of guilt for missing so many competitions in Japan or whatever not to go.

 

So for Yuzu's second spot, he would have to go with one out of Rostelecom/CoC/IdF, none of which he loves, I imagine, but probably not Rostelecom since it's so close to NHK which is close to GPF. So that leaves CoC and IdF (aka superstition versus ugly plastic stars). Not really sure which one he'd choose between those two. IdF is earlier so it gives him more time to adjust any problems with his programs, but there's less travel and jetlag involved if he doesn't go back to Canada between CoC and NHK...buuuut I'm not sure where he'd train/if he would even want to avoid going back to Canada between his two stops. Plus if he's relatively indifferent between the two, he might just let Vincent choose (not sure how this works behind the scenes), and I could think of reasons Vincent would pick CoC (namely he's fairly popular in China). Not sure what Vincent's schedule looks like though--is he starting college this year too?

 

So I guess I think NHK+IdF is the most likely pick for Yuzu, but I could see NHK+CoC. That leaves Rostelecom+whichever Yuzu doesn't pick for Vincent.

 

Therefore, my prediction:

SkAm: Nathan

SCI: Nathan
IdF: Yuzu
CoC: Vincent

Rostelecom: Vincent

NHK: Yuzu

 

A lot of ifs though.

 

If Nathan does SA and SCI, it's not just that he will do back-to-back GPs, he also has midterms on 10/25 according to the Yale Academic calendar. So I think Nathan doing SA & SCI is highly unlikely. That's also the reason why I think Nathan doing IdF is unlikely because that means 3 weeks in a row of stress for him: SA -> midterms -> IdF.

 

That's why I originally chose CoR for Nathan, but after @Blackberry said that he might get 2nd midterms before his Nov break, and probably assorted assignments are due before he goes on break, I'm thinking CoC will be the best choice for Nathan. So I agree with Blackberry's prediction of:

 

SA:  Nate + Misha (or Boyang)
SCI: Yuzu + Boyang (or Misha)
IdF: Vince + Shoma
CoC: Nate + Boyang
CoR: Yuzu + Misha
NHK: Vince + Shoma

 

This separates #1,2, and 3 and also separates #4,5, & 6. I think it's better for Shoma to be at NHK because he doesn't have to travel so it doesn't matter as much if it's close to GPF. Yuzu would be impacted more because he would have to travel for NHK & for GPF.

 

Alternatively, if the ISU is greedy and wants to place Yuzu at IdF to help ticket sales, we could see this:

 

SA:  Nate + Boyang
SCI: Vince + Shoma
IdF: Yuzu + Misha
CoC: Nate + Boyang
CoR: Yuzu + Misha
NHK: Vince + Shoma

 

I think this is less likely because then everyone is competing with the same person for both GPs (unless Boyang does back-to-back GPs at IdF and CoC).

 

If Nathan gets CoC and Yuzu gets NHK, then you will see Vincent + Shoma at CoR, but that means Shoma will go up against Misha too (violating the 4,5,6 can't meet rule), unless they don't assign Misha to CoR. I don't know how likely that is. If Shoma is not paired with Vincent, then he has to go against Nathan or Yuzu, and I don't think JSF will want that. So I think there's a better chance of Yuzu at CoR than NHK.