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19 minutes ago, meoima said:

And seriously, in this world there is nothing comes for free and gives you best quality and quantity in just several months. Most people don't understand why Yuzuru has to choose Chopin. It's just 7 months away from the Olympic, not 4 years.

In classical music world, many pianists keep practicing from young, like 3-4 years old. Some of them might hit all the notes of the most difficult music pieces when they're 12 but I am telling you no one says their interpretation is greatest ever. 

It's Richer, Giles, Horowitz, Pollini... and other OLD pianists who are forever remembered as greatest pianists, not someone who only hit their notes right.

 

Come to think of it, talking about young talent who destroyed their abilities since young, there have been many opera singers who did that. Their natural voices were good and powerful and they wanted to be remembered too fast, they accepted rols that required so much destruction to their voices. With Opera, mostly you don't get famous after you're over 30 because it's only by that time your voices have become stable. Most opera singers are still students by the mid twenties because they have to wait for their voices to mature and study the roles and aria, songs at the dame time. I don't see any young voices singing difficult musical pieces since young to develop good voice when they grow up. If you want evidence, google Charlotte Church when she was 14 and look at her now. 

There are things in this world you can not rush. I do believe when it comes to art and technique going along, you can't rush. Figure skating is also an art, mind you. 

 

I agree that it takes time for artists/athletes to mature, and there is a peak time for everyone, but in the case of Nathan I heard he's not here for the long haul and is perhaps planning a different career after the Olympics so for him his team will probably rush and the fact that he's the best bet for medal for the US since forever means he'll get the push as well.

 

Like everyone has said though, it's all out of our hands and Yuzuru has the smarts to know what he is doing so fans and his team will keep on supporting him (even though some fans may or may not be disappointed in his FS when it is announced). Most importantly hopefully the JSF does their share of supporting him also because, although I do not know much about Ladies, there was conspiracy talk about how the JSF treated Japan's golden girl Mao during Sochi - if someone can englighten me - what was that all about?

 

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7 minutes ago, meoima said:

And seriously, in this world there is nothing comes for free and gives you best quality and quantity in just several months. Most people don't understand why Yuzuru has to choose Chopin. It's just 7 months away from the Olympic, not 4 years.

In classical music world, many pianists keep practicing from young, like 3-4 years old. Some of them might hit all the notes of the most difficult music pieces when they're 12 but I am telling you no one says their interpretation is greatest ever. 

It's Richer, Giles, Horowitz, Pollini... and other OLD pianists who are forever remembered as greatest pianists, not someone who only hit their notes right.

 

Come to think of it, talking about young talent who destroyed their abilities since young, there have been many opera singers who did that. Their natural voices were good and powerful and they wanted to be remembered too fast, they accepted rols that required so much destruction to their voices. With Opera, mostly you don't get famous after you're over 30 because it's only by that time your voices have become stable. Most opera singers are still students by the mid twenties because they have to wait for their voices to mature and study the roles and aria, songs at the dame time. I don't see any young voices singing difficult musical pieces since young to develop good voice when they grow up. If you want evidence, google Charlotte Church when she was 14 and look at her now. She might be rich but she will never be recognized as a good singer by experts. 

There are things in this world you can not rush. I do believe when it comes to art and technique going along, you can't rush. Figure skating is also an art, mind you. 

I'm agree with you. Everything need process. Even yuzu who has natural talent in the sport, he needs times to polish his talent. Now I can see the differences on his skating back then when he was 17 and now he's 22.

The skater needs time to reach the maturity and I remember one of commentator from cbc was saying that yuzu doesn't need it (time) anymore, he was there, he's own everything. 

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4 hours ago, Forcefield said:

 

I agree that it takes time for artists/athletes to mature, and there is a peak time for everyone, but in the case of Nathan I heard he's not here for the long haul and is perhaps planning a different career after the Olympics so for him his team will probably rush and the fact that he's the best bet for medal for the US since forever means he'll get the push as well.

 

Like everyone has said though, it's all out of our hands and Yuzuru has the smarts to know what he is doing so fans and his team will keep on supporting him (even though some fans may or may not be disappointed in his FS when it is announced). Most importantly hopefully the JFS does their share of supporting him also because, although I do not know much about Ladies, there was conspiracy talk about how the JFS treated Japan's golden girl Mao during Sochi - if someone can englighten me - what was that all about?

 

They forced Mao to train abroad in some bad rinks even though she wanted to train in Japan. But I think it was just a small time. Frankly I think Mao came to Sochi very well-prepared. She skated cleanly LP at Sochi and did very well in practice. So it's her mentality that killed her SP, it's not her preparation.

 

About USFA yes we all remember how they pushed their skaters too soon for Olympic gold but in the end did those skaters help them remain relevant in the public eyes as a skating nation? Tara technically said goodbye to the skating world when she was just 15 and didn't help US elevate skating popularity at all. Sarah Hughes is forever remembered as the Olympic Champion who bored the heart out of all the audience. Will they ever come back to watch Sarah's skating? Hilariously it's Kwan who kept US skating relevant not those Olympic Champions. 

Evan Lysacek is OGM yes but he is completely irrelevant to the American public and the skating world. 

Olympic title means a lot to some people but Olympic title alone doesn't make you a legend. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Hanmgse said:

I admit all this talk about BV scares me. We used to have Yuzuru as the skater with the highest base value, but this past season not only Boyang but also Nathan and Shoma upped their game. I still think a clean Yuzu wins any day, but my concern is more on how much can Yuzu make his programs harder, I know he always improved season by season. I just wonder if it will be enough against the crazy quad race.

I think @meoima said this many times, in the end of the day the one who gets gold medal isn't the skater who had many quads but the skater who skates clean/cleanest ?/less mistakes. 

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8 minutes ago, liv said:

What day is the press day in August? I forgot and do not want to wade back into the thread for it... I know it is early august... not that far away anymore!!! So m6ch will be revealed.. music, anyway... that will feed us for a long time, lol. 

The tweet literally said "first ten days of August" haha idk if it's an expression to say "early in the month" or it really is the time frame where we can expect it

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My opinion on clean Yuzuru vs. others, especially Nathan:


First of all, it's REALLY SOON to worry now because we don't know their layout/programs/condition/etc. It would be great to see everyone skate clean both SP and FS but I'm afraid it just isn't possible. But THEORETICALLY, if everyone skated clean both SP and FS, including Yuzu, I'm sure Yuzu would set a new record - i.e. above 330 (I don't think judges would want to hold him back if he did a perfect SP AND perfect FS).

 

A lot can (and probably will) change next season but until now: 

  • almost clean Shoma was 11 points off 330 (with MUCH higher BV and with VERY VERY VERY lenient judging and technical panel) 
  • clean Javi couldn't break any of Yuzu's records (with similar BV, although he was close, especially in SP)
  • clean Boyang was 27 points off 330 (with MUCH higher BV)
  • Patrick... he's never scored above 300 (although now he plans to add more quads so he has a potential to score much higher)

Can clean Nathan with 7 quads score more than 330? BTW, has he already confirmed 7 quads? Or is it just another speculation?

Anyway, Nathan has great potential and his weapons are quads but here are some of my thoughts about his disadvantages:

  • he probably won't backload much (while Yuzu/some others probably will and are VERY USED TO IT)
  • he doesn't have best quality quads (sure, he can improve but OTHERS WILL, TOO. Plus he seems to be more interested in quantity rather than quality)
  • he has long setup for his quads (not sure if this can be improved significantly over 1 summer)
  • clean Nathan will probably have high PCS but no way anywhere near CLEAN Yuzu, because: 
    • he lacks skating skills and maturity and it takes long time to develop those (longer than 1 summer)
    • he doesn't have natural flow and fluidity which Yuzu/Patrick have always had and it's quite obvious (not sure if this can be improved at all) 
    • with 7 quads there is not too much room to have great intricate choreo (just my speculation based on his empty FS last season with "only" 6 quads)
  • people expect Nathan to improve in everything (and I'm SURE he will) but you should also expect Yuzu/others to improve, too! Yuzu is aware of other skaters and he's always one step ahead EVERYONE (fans/rivals/coaches).

 

A lot will depend on the skating order, panel of judges, their momentum, luck, etc... but right now my opinion is that PERFECTLY CLEAN Yuzu can win against all odds and I think in this case judges won't hold him back. And as many have already said: the most important thing will be to skate clean. And Yuzu knows it. And I trust him. We all should.

 

However, *IF* Nathans wins over perfect Yuzuru, it will be one huge scandal and @¯\_(ツ)_/¯summarized it perfectly:

 

9 hours ago, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:

Sure, the Ollies is a different beast and a breeding ground for dirty politics that, if the powers behind it want to get really dirty, not even someone like Hanyu would be impervious to falling victim to unsavory machinations. But unless one of the other competitors somehow manages to miraculously, in one short year, do better than what had taken even someone of Hanyu’s physique and caliber decades of hard work, stubbornness and grit to achieve in becoming a complete skater,  if Hanyu loses the gold despite skating his best in all his career, then everyone watching would be able to clearly see, without doubt or gray area,  that the Games is now compromised to a point where it’s beyond redemption and watching future Games would be a complete waste of time. It’d be worse than what happened at Sochi 2014, I imagine, especially since, unlike Kim, Hanyu, had maintained a constant strong presence throughout the entire cycle and making history as much as propelling the sport forward just about every season.

 

If they want to go down that route still, that’s entirely up to them, but the one who has more to lose out of that debacle won’t be Hanyu, it’d be the ones who let it happen. So long as he has his ideal skate, gold medal or no, he’ll have no overt lingering regret. Which I imagine was the place Kim was in back when they decided to not give her the gold. There's no home ground advantage for any of the top contenders in any of the fields this time, but if it happens to him still, he’d not have his second gold, but he’d have his ideal skate, something that he didn’t have back when he actually did win gold. In other words, if I had to choose only between Hanyu skating his ideal skate and not getting the gold and him getting the gold but not his ideal skate (where his FS isn't clean), I’d rather it be the former…cos the latter’s already happened.

 

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I appreciate this discussion very much. 

I'd like to remember a small thing to ease up anyone who might honestly feel worried about Nathan vs. Yuzuru.

If we're talking about clean programs:

- Yuzuru scored 330 with 5 quads total (clean SP and FS) and no scores were inflated. Almost two years ago. His skating and BV have improved since then. There's no doubt he would set a new world record with the new season's programs skated clean. 

- Nathan scored 307 (and something) with 7 quads total (clean SP and FS) with inflated scores. He might increase his crazy BV, but his PCS will stay the same at best and overall skating skills might even get worse, because of the strenght and focus 6 or 7 quads require. He has not yet come close to Yuzu's records. 

 

So I honestly really am not worried about this. Nathan can beat Yuzuru only if Yuzuru bombs his programs. And if Yuzuru bombs them, well, it's his responsability. 

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I do still think Yuzu might bring in the 4lz, but maybe in the free and not the SP - the SP is going to be strong enough BV wise with the loop and the 4t3t in the second half, if that's the layout he keeps, since this is the program that still holds the record high score with a lower bv layout. 

In the free it's either going to be the 4lz or some new combinations and bigger jumps moved to the second half, now he knows he can do it. There will be a BV increase whether he adds the 4lz or not.

Atm Yuzuru gives a vibe like he's prioritising skating clean consistently over having a super high bv and I agree with him tbh. So long as his BV is competitive, which it will be, it doesn't need to be the highest one there if he can skate two programs clean multiple times through the season ala Evgenia. Nathan might try 7 quads, he might even land them all, but you who he's going to have front heavy layouts with nothing happening between the elements. Even if the judges still give GOE for effort and 9s in PCS for landing jumps, anything Yuzuru does clean is done to a level that Nathan isn't producing right now. 

 

If Yuzuru skates 2 good programs it's going to take a high degree of bullshit to deny him a second ogm

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1 hour ago, moni said:

However, *IF* Nathans wins over perfect Yuzuru, it will be one huge scandal and @¯\_(ツ)_/¯summarized it perfectly:

 

Only if there's no more than 10-15 or so BV difference total across both SP and FS. Anything more and, if both go clean, Nathan's BV might make up for lower PCS/GOEs. So Yuzu does need to raise his BV too. Which he will. How, we shall see. 

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It's Yuzu, ofc we would worry about him and we want him to win but ultimately there's nothing he needs to do (just as he doesn't need to win everything all the time). 4Lz or whatever, as much as I really want to see it because I know it's instantly going to become my fave quad, it's up to him. If he feels up to it he may include it but to expect him to include it or expect him to raise his BV may be going too far. He will do whatever he thinks is best. His decision to bring Ballade back? I completely understand and agree with it after thinking about it. He'll do fine, let's trust him.

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1 hour ago, robin said:

If he feels up to it he may include it but to expect him to include it or expect him to raise his BV may be going too far. 

 

Not really, it's just facing reality. 


Shoma had a score of 214, 45 for his FS in Helsinki, with negative GOEs for both the 3Lz ! (-2,10) and the 4T (-0, 23). All of this too, with the a double 4T, one in combo, and the 4F in the first part of the program. At WTT already, we were looking at a double 4F, with the 4F combination moved to the second half of the program. That alone is already a significant increase, for a 4 quads program (13, 53 vs 11, 33 which is a full 2, 2 points; to remind you Yuzuru won in Helsinki by 2, 28 points for perspective sake). This is also prior to taking into account the 4Lz, which he is openly practicing and could not only include it but might then up his FS overall count to 5 quads that will then have a 2 x 4F, 4Lz, 4Lo and a 4T. His PCS is right there (94, 42) and will more than likely rise further on, on account of both his growing reputation, and pretty good music choices. 

 

This is just Shoma too, with Nathan raising his game, Javier potentially adding the 4Lo which would enable him to go up to a 4 quads program, etc. So really the increase in BV is simply a necessity. How he chooses to increase that BV is up in the air. Not including the 4Lz leaves him with eliminating one of the 3As, and having 3 quads in the second half but it's not that effective if we take into consideration the above. Then there is the option of the 4Lz plus 3 other quads, to increase stability or 4 if he wants to risk it but the Lz allows for both 3As to stay if that's the case. 

 

His choice of Chopin and the current layout are smart because it leaves him with a, more than likely, sure amount of points in the bag, but again, Shoma with a good SP may be even with him come OG, if not ahead, so the possibility of chasing in the FS is not even remotely implausible. Again, just Shoma. We'll see on the rest. 

 

Expecting him to raise the BV is simply facing where men's skating is at this point in time; there are quite a few excellent skaters. How he'll end up doing it, we'll see early August if we're lucky but there is no doubt whatsoever that he will do it because simply put, he has to. 

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if yuzuru skates lights out best performances of his life for both sp and fp they will have to give him gold, look at Helsinki as an example - they tried everything they could not to give him the gold ( underscored af etc ) but if they had given shoma the gold it would've been a massive - yuzuru is not stupid, he has the 4Lutz trained in case he feels the increased BV of the other skaters is too much for himto compete with, 2nd OGM is his dream, he'll do everything in his power to win

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1 hour ago, Yatagarasu said:

Expecting him to raise the BV is simply facing where men's skating is at this point in time; there are quite a few excellent skaters. How he'll end up doing it, we'll see early August if we're lucky but there is no doubt whatsoever that he will do it because simply put, he has to. 

 

I'm not saying he should not raise his BV, I'm just saying he knows his own condition the best and he's the one who has probably thought all of his possibilities through the most.

If at the end of all of his considerations he does not include the 4Lz or does not add any quads to his layout then I'm pretty sure he will have a valid reason.

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