Old Cat Lady

That was my reaction too. I was griping about that for weeks. Tuk stalks half the rink to do a huge, beautiful triple axel and she gets 0-2 GOE (as she should considering the long prep deduction). Nate stalks half the rink to do a tiny 3 axel and judges throw a bunch of 4's at him And Nate's fans are still talking about how the Skate America panel was tougher than any of the other ones

Ahh. That would explain it. Well, I guess that just means we have some extra data. eta: btw, using the trimmed mean puts it slightly more in Yuzu's favor. Yuzu's average = 4.256 Nathan's average = 3.658 Difference = .598

I altered the form you made for judging to calculate raw GOE (I have 3 versions of your form now, lol) and checked the factored GOE's against ISU protocols. I'm not sure if my form is off or yours is but I have a few minor quibbles with your numbers. I got: Yuzu: 4T (GPRUS FS) - 4.57 4S (GPRUS SP) - 4.43 4S (GPFIN SP) - 4.43 3A (GPRUS SP) - 4.14 4S (GPRUS FS) - 3.71 Nathan: 4F (GPF FS) - 4 4T (GPFRA FS) - 3.72 3A (GPUSA SP) - 3.71 4F (GPF SP) - 3.43 4T-3T (GPF FS) - 3.43 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bz2lk-wF5FlI16_lmgUFfL85MmI_DS7M7AKIjE6fW6E/edit?usp=sharing (I was using this sheet to see how they would have scored if they didn't make mistakes so some of the GOE's/levels are altered. Also, I didn't attempt a formula for the choreo sequence so I just estimate and manually enter those)

Found the explanation for the metrics http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/WorldFame/espn-world-fame-100-2018 I think ESPN just doesn't know what to do with Yuzu. This list has a few things going against Yuzu. Google isn't the top search engine where his strongest fan bases are but they only looked at Baidu for Chinese athletes and they didn't look at Yahoo at all. And ESPN doesn't cover figure skating outside of a tiny blurb during the Olympics. I wonder if they would have even noticed him if it weren't for all the Poohs. Apparently he was chosen because he was the 18th most searched athlete last year but I can easily see them overlooking him on the Google list if someone didn't already know who he was. I find their endorsement numbers dubious. They explain that they had to estimate if they didn't know for sure. Did Phil Mickelson really lose $13 million in endorsements in 10 months? ESPN uses the biggest official social media account to determine followers (rather than a total). You would think that since Yuzu has no official social media, they could just use the most popular fan account. Last year someone said that there's a weibo account with 500k followers - though that's a severely diluted number since people are more likely to follow an official account than a fan account. Using 22 search score, 13.41 M in endorsements, and 500k followers - Yuzu has a higher score in 2 of the 3 metrics than 24 of the people ranked ahead of him. The calls for that free skate were so bizarre. The video I have didn't have a slo-mo replay for the toe that got called <, but both the axels looked shorter than either the loop or the toe that did get called. From the angles of the video I was watching, I thought both the quads were within the requirements and both the axels were around the quarter. In fact, the loop looked almost backwards at landing - the only thing I can think is that the caller got confused because of the deep curve on the landing. I can understand the mistake on the initial call but you would think it would have been corrected on replay - it didn't even look close to a quarter short to me.

I'm so confused about the search score. Tried to look it up but I still can't figure out what a good number is. Their #1 and #5 has a score of 100 but the guys in between are a lot lower. I'm guessing higher number is better but then why would supposedly more famous people have lower numbers than the #5? ESPN is probably estimating based on what publicists say Yuzu should be making per ad and how many endorsements he has. The Sekkei endorsement history makes me wonder how much money he has given up by only endorsing products he actually believes in.

That's a good point. He probably really doesn't have any skin care routine. I guess the universe actually is that unfair to us mere mortals

Dang. I made myself put the phone down and do other things because I've been compulsively checking only to see like 1 new post. A few hours away and I end up missing out on a new video 😭 This new ad makes me wonder though. Yuzu claimed he doesn't do anything to his skin. But, he chooses sponsors based on them making products he actually uses. Hmm. Is his secret out? It does seem unfair to the world to give him skin like that without him putting any effort into it - even through puberty! I'll never understand why they can't tailor something for him. Didn't they get measurements for Olympic suits and they still didn't fit.

I feel conflicted about the new vs. recycled programs. On the one hand, each of his recycled programs have been better the second (or third) season he did them. I don't think I would be watching skating during this season if Ballade wasn't as masterful as it was at the Olympics, making me immediately obsess over him. His Olympic Semei is the one I watch over and over, in spite of cleaner performances in 2015, because by that point he had such command over the choreography that I find it far superior over the previous versions. I also don't feel like I've gotten enough of these programs and he hasn't even come close to tapping Origin's potential. However, I also think there is so much artistic potential to still be explored and skating careers are so short. I can't help but think about the possible treasure that will get displaced by a repeated program. Unless he's able to skate his dream performance at worlds or WTT, I hope that if he does decide to repeat a program, that it's Origin. As someone else said up thread, he's already given us a supreme version of Otonal. There's an infinitessimal amount that he could improve on it, but if Rostelecom is the best version we ever get of it, I'm happy to keep playing that on loop. I definitely don't want 2 recycled programs. But ideally he'd skate his best programs of the year at worlds. Get 2 new programs next year. Then skate full versions of these programs in Ciontu 12 and 13 with the even greater grandeur that he will have acquired from further experience. I don't give a flying fart about quads so he can do a delayed single axel on the gong, eliminate some of the jumps, and add in some of the choreography he lost. You may ask, "why wouldn't he do it in Ciontu 2?" - well, because he's going to a full version of LGC, of course. Plus, if he repeats Origin in Ciontu 13, it means that he'll be skating until he's at least 36.

Made the mistake of scrolling through my YouTube play lists before bed. There's more deleted symbols than videos now. One of my favorite videos is Kuyashi Zu from 2017 4CC and now almost all the LGC vids are gone. Way to make myself depressed right before I have to sleep

Thanks! Sigh. For Yuzu, I'll dance with my old foe Technology I should have learned these VPN thingies a long time ago anyway. Since Yuzu keeps the notes people throw him, perhaps we could write notes to go with the Poohs encouraging the overseas market. I don't know how these licensing things work - do they have to get one for each country? Maybe the market isn't dense enough to make it worth it. You'd think that they'd at least make it available in China

I don't think it's so much the chest/waist ratio that's odd, though I think his is still more pronounced than average. In side by sides with Boyang and Nathan, Yuzu seems to be similar in the chest and shoulders, if not even a little broader in the shoulders, and slightly smaller in the waist but not by that much, and your numbers above seem to support that. What's odd is that most skinny guys tend to be straight up and down from that point on but Yuzu's hips flare out more. The "ideal" hip/waist ratio for men is .9 and for women it's .6-.8 - female celebrities tend to be very close to .7. Going by the wax figure measurements, Yuzu's is about .77 so the "normal shoulders" and the slightly bigger hips are working together to create the illusion of the extra small waist - though his waist is actually extra small, just not as extra small as it appears. Of the world class skaters, I can only think of Tomono, juniors, and females that have a smaller waist. Squeeeeeeeaaal!!! I have to download line just to get these stamps. Now I need to figure out someone willing to talk to me FYI, there's an Asian fusion chain restaurant called Kona. They have a jalapeno yellowtail in a Yuzu ponzu sauce, which, of course, I only ordered because of the Yuzu sauce. DO NOT ORDER IT! The sauce isn't very good and completely overpowers everything else - I couldn't even taste the jalapeno, much less the yellowtail. Just figured I'd give you guys fair warning since you guys would probably be most likely to fall into the same trap I did... won't stop me from trying the yuzu lemon tart the next time I'm there. Anyone here try the "All Eyes on Yuzu" beer?

Did anyone else notice that, with the season close to finished, Nobu's JPN Open Free skate is unofficially the 9th highest personal best of the season, higher than Cha, Brezina, Zhou, and Brown? His 176 fs is higher than the silver medalist in each of the Grand Prix series events, the bronze medalist at the final, and the winner of all the lower level events except for Ondrej Nepala. I realize that JPN Open was a cheesefest, but the judging was no more farcical than at Europeans or 4CC, so I am compelled to say "come back Nobuuu! You retired way too early!" ETA: oops. I probably should have put this in the retired skaters thread. Sorry

Good to know he's feeling well, but ick, a Chaplin program. I hope he's not playing Chaplin - outside of varying degrees of execution levels, those all look pretty similar and have become rather tiresome. Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze's was a masterpiece. I liked that Anton brought a level of tenderness to the portrayel. But even done at its very best, there are large chunks of the same old schtick. By the time Cappellini and Lanotte got to it, in spite of being a great program and them doing a great job, I couldn't enjoy it Wow! I never noticed how beautiful she was before. I guess I was distracted since I don't like her skating

I attempted to convert my fiancee but I failed. For some reason showing him dozens of pictures of Yuzu's and talking about how pretty he is didn't manage to convince him But he is coming with me to Autumn Classic if I manage to get tickets and our passports in time - crossing my fingers that the US government will be processing those.

My predictions: Japan Yes 3 Papadakis/Cizeron Dance, Ladies Yes deleted for fear of jinx Yes deleted for fear of jinx Yes Canada Yes

Now that teams are in, I'm starting the worlds prediction game. Have fun!

Is it my screen or does he have some peach fuzz in this photo? I love his priorities - doesn't bother to shave for his official photo. I imagine it never looks like much more than this so he probably rarely shaves unless it's something really important. He's looking more grown up these days - might be able to pass for 18.

I agree. At the very least, it's definitely not Jun and I can't think of another male skater with Yuzu's shoulder/waist/hip ratio Couldn't find a good pic from behind, but judging from the front, Jun has a blockier figure from waist to hip and I don't think his practice gear is as form fitting as Yuzu's... the depths we go to find the tiniest detail about Yuzu

Jason's too happy go lucky to be Tigger. I think Jason is Roo. Consummately sweet but still bouncy. I think Yuzu is Tigger because Tigger goes back and forth from bouncy and happy to combative at the slightest challenge. I can't see Jason scowling with his fists up over anything Javi is Pooh because he seems to be Yuzu's best skating companion and has such a warm, relaxed personality Shoma is Piglet because of his meek personality but is brave when necessary Tracy is Kanga - the wise, nurturing mother figure Nathan is Rabbit - a little more serious than the rest Mikhail is Eeyore - poor kid can't seem to get any confidence Jun is Lumpy - exudes such a sweet nature Maybe Brian would be Owl? Vincent is the first person to come to mind for Owl but Brian needs to be someone and Owl is the closest that I can think of since Brian seems to have a more scholarly mindset Ghislain as Christopher Robin? I think Ghislain more than Brian because Ghislain seems to be a source of comfort as well as a mentor and they have a more affectionate relationship ...okay... I put way too much thought into this

Awww. Shoma's a perfect piglet I always thought Yuzu seemed more like a Tigger type - feisty, energetic, ultra competitive. Maybe Javi can be Pooh - he seems to be a better fit for Pooh's easy going personality

I tried it with 2016/2017 layout though I don't think it's as informative since we don't have as much data. I think Yuzu generally gets lower GOE on loop than toe so I dropped his loop GOE to 3. I used the same GOE for 4s/3t as he got in each of the events for 4t/3t, though I'm sure he'd get higher GOE for 4t/3t. I just used the loop GOE for his flips - I haven't looked that closely at it but I don't think there's a big GOE difference unless he gets an edge call for the flip. All the combos are in the bonus section Autumn Classic = 109.12 + 206.31 = 315.43 Helsinki = 109.86 + 209.31 = 319.18 Rostelecom = 110.46 + 203.18= 313.65 - I kept this to only 5 quads so that the comparison is more relevant. No 4lo in FS but replaced 2nd 4t w/4s. Average score = 316.08 The Rostelecom score actually went down in spite of a higher BV because of the higher GOE on 4t and 4s than 4lo. Helsinki only went up by .07. Unless Yuzu can get equal or better GOE on the loop vs. toe, it's not worth the risk. The only place it seemed to make a significant difference in score is at the Autumn Classic where several of his elements were lower quality - the poorer the quality of elements, the more the base value matters.

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I made a worksheet to see what the big 3 would have gotten if they skated their planned layout cleanly in each of their competitions. I used the highest PCS for each segment in all the programs. None of them skated a completely clean free skate and Nathan doesn't have a completely clean SP so their PCS scores are probably a bit lower than what they would get for a clean program. I only changed the GOE for step outs or falls. I tried to replace any jump error GOE with a clean element from the same competition but if there wasn't a comparable one, I just plugged in a 3. I also adjusted all levels to lvl 4 and pops to what I think they were trying to attempt in the moment Nathan - Different layouts for every event. SP PCS = 44.64 (SA), LP PCS = 90.94 (SA) Skate America: 100.98+193.18=294.16 IDF: 100.29 + 196.06 = 296.35 GPF: 105.92 + 209.15 = 315.06 - only competition with 6 quads Average Score = 301.86 Shoma - SP PCS = 46.35 (Lombardia), LP PCS = 92.88 (4CC). I changed all the SP layouts to 4t/3t even though he only attempted it in 1 event, with the assumption that it was because something was wrong rather than what he planned. I also removed all < in spite of getting them in every event. Lombardia: 107.76 + 208.19 = 315.95 Skate Canada: 106.53+209.54 = 316.06 NHK: 108.23 + 210.29 = 318.52 GPF: 106.19 + 207.88 = 314.08 4CC: 97.26 + 201.15 = 298.41 (only competition with only 4 quads) Average Score = 312.60 Since Shoma's doubled the 3t of the combo in the short of every event except Sk Can and < or stepped out of the 4s in every event, I also figured his scores with 4s< and 4t/2t Lombardia: 307.72 Skate Canada: 310.73 NHK: 310.29 GPF: 305.85 4CC: 298.41 (no change needed to layout) Average Score = 306.60 Yuzu - SP PCS = 48.09 (Rostelecom), LP PCS = 92.42 (Helsinki) Autumn Classic: 108.37 + 205.63 = 314 (had to make a lot of changes to layout due to mistakes) Helsinki: 109.93 + 209.18 = 319.11 Rostelecom: 110.53 + 203.59 = 314.99 (only 5 quads instead of 6) Average Score = 315.74 Notable that Yuzu's Rostelecom score ended up being higher than his Autumn Classic score in spite of me changing his layout at AC to 6 attempted quads because of lower quality elements. Nathan's 6 quad BV at GPF was 10 points higher than Yuzu's 5 quad Rostelecom BV but there is only .07 difference in score.

Sorry if I'm rehashing - it only just now occurred to me to check this thread. But I'm so confused as to why Voronov isn't in any of these smaller competitions unless he's still sick or injured. I realize that he has no chance at medaling at worlds but neither does Kovtun and Voronov has had a much better international season. It's looking like the men's team is going to be Kovtun, Samarin, and Kolyada. Samarin's had the best international season and is the only one who's performances are getting better so I think he's a no brainer. Kolyada will likely be in top 10 even if he bombs hard and is the only Russian man that has a realistic chance to medal without needing the big 3 to completely implode (though he's still depending on mistakes) so I feel like he should have his place on the team in spite of the horrible outings. Aliev and Kovtun (and Kolyada) are all head cases so you would think the Russian fed would want someone more stable to try to secure 3 spots and Voronov looks like the most reliable of the 3. It seems like there's almost as much reason for a men's skate off for worlds as there is for a ladies' skate off. In a way, it's seems more important since the men are in danger of losing a spot whereas I can't even imagine that happening with the ladies.

Here are the entries for worlds. Remember that the Russian ladies team is Alina Zagitova, Sofia Samodurova, and Evgenia Medvedeva NOT Konstantinova http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111664.htm Rules You have until the start of the first event on March 18 to get your final predictions in. Hydroblade created an event somewhere with times in your zone but I’m blind and can’t find it at the moment so I’ll have to link it later. I know how alluring that grand prize of “nothing” is but I feel that the honor system will be enough to keep everyone from changing predictions after the deadline. If you make any changes to your predictions, please edit your original reply rather than posting an additional one. I suggest predicting a top 5. If someone withdraws, I’ll bump everyone you predicted below that person up a spot. Scoring 1 point if your skater is within 2 places of your predicted placement 3 points for every correct placement Bonus questions are worth 2 point each eta: it occurred to me that maybe it doesn't make sense to award extra points for getting an entire podium or all the gold medalists, especially with "jinx factor" coming into play. Maybe I should just reward points for podium placements with bonus points available if you also correctly predict 4th and 5th - then any 6th place pick will just be cushion in case of last minute withdrawals (knock on wood ). Let me know if there's a preference. List the top 5 (or more if you want an alternate in case of withdrawal) for each discipline. Bonus Questions: FYI, in order to qualify 3 entrants for the following year, for 2-3 member teams the top 2 placements must total 13 or less. For 1 member teams, the person must place in the top 2 to earn 3 spots. To qualify 2 entrants, the top 2 placements must total 28 or less. If only 1 entrant, that skater/team needs to be top 10. Each member nation automatically gets 1 entry per discipline provided that they have someone that can reach TES minimum. For the questions, we will assume every country in question has at least 1 qualifying entry. 1. Which country will win the most medals? 2. Will we have an all Japanese/Russian ladies top 6? 3. How many of the gold medalists will win with at least 1 world record? 4. Which skater/team will win by the largest margin? 5. Which disciplines will have no falls from any of the medalists? 6. Will there be a +5 Final GOE element in the competition? 7. Who will get the most points on a single element? 8. Will anyone get a Final PCS of 10? 9. Who will have the highest total TES score? 10. Will the US increase its world team for next year (currently 9) 11. Will Canada or Japan have the smaller team next year or will they tie? 12. Will Russia qualify for 12 entrants in next year’s worlds? ETA: by composite I meant the final score after the high and low are dropped. Just realized that the way I worded it might be confusing so I changed the wording on questions 6 and 8 to "final" GOE

I highly doubt that Yuzu would do this layout, but based on previous competitions and with the assumption that he's avoiding lutz unless necessary, I think his highest scoring reasonable layout for the free skate is 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3f/3a seq*, 3a/e/3s* The seq penalty doesn't hit nearly as hard if he does it on the triple instead of the quad. While I've never seen him do a flip/axel sequence, I'm thinking it's reasonable to think he can attach the axel to a 3 flip if he's able to do it with the 4t and I believe this means he gets the GOE points for the axel instead of the flip. BV: 92.35 3 GOE: 116.05 4 GOE: 123.95 He would score slightly higher if he does 3lo/3a seq instead but he never combos the loop and the motion is so different than the other jumps that I think it might be difficult to adjust to even though it's on the front end. Obviously if the 3 lutz is good, then he'd replace the loop with the lutz.