Old Cat Lady

Now that teams are in, I'm starting the worlds prediction game. Have fun!

Is it my screen or does he have some peach fuzz in this photo? I love his priorities - doesn't bother to shave for his official photo. I imagine it never looks like much more than this so he probably rarely shaves unless it's something really important. He's looking more grown up these days - might be able to pass for 18.

I agree. At the very least, it's definitely not Jun and I can't think of another male skater with Yuzu's shoulder/waist/hip ratio Couldn't find a good pic from behind, but judging from the front, Jun has a blockier figure from waist to hip and I don't think his practice gear is as form fitting as Yuzu's... the depths we go to find the tiniest detail about Yuzu

Jason's too happy go lucky to be Tigger. I think Jason is Roo. Consummately sweet but still bouncy. I think Yuzu is Tigger because Tigger goes back and forth from bouncy and happy to combative at the slightest challenge. I can't see Jason scowling with his fists up over anything Javi is Pooh because he seems to be Yuzu's best skating companion and has such a warm, relaxed personality Shoma is Piglet because of his meek personality but is brave when necessary Tracy is Kanga - the wise, nurturing mother figure Nathan is Rabbit - a little more serious than the rest Mikhail is Eeyore - poor kid can't seem to get any confidence Jun is Lumpy - exudes such a sweet nature Maybe Brian would be Owl? Vincent is the first person to come to mind for Owl but Brian needs to be someone and Owl is the closest that I can think of since Brian seems to have a more scholarly mindset Ghislain as Christopher Robin? I think Ghislain more than Brian because Ghislain seems to be a source of comfort as well as a mentor and they have a more affectionate relationship ...okay... I put way too much thought into this

Awww. Shoma's a perfect piglet I always thought Yuzu seemed more like a Tigger type - feisty, energetic, ultra competitive. Maybe Javi can be Pooh - he seems to be a better fit for Pooh's easy going personality

I tried it with 2016/2017 layout though I don't think it's as informative since we don't have as much data. I think Yuzu generally gets lower GOE on loop than toe so I dropped his loop GOE to 3. I used the same GOE for 4s/3t as he got in each of the events for 4t/3t, though I'm sure he'd get higher GOE for 4t/3t. I just used the loop GOE for his flips - I haven't looked that closely at it but I don't think there's a big GOE difference unless he gets an edge call for the flip. All the combos are in the bonus section Autumn Classic = 109.12 + 206.31 = 315.43 Helsinki = 109.86 + 209.31 = 319.18 Rostelecom = 110.46 + 203.18= 313.65 - I kept this to only 5 quads so that the comparison is more relevant. No 4lo in FS but replaced 2nd 4t w/4s. Average score = 316.08 The Rostelecom score actually went down in spite of a higher BV because of the higher GOE on 4t and 4s than 4lo. Helsinki only went up by .07. Unless Yuzu can get equal or better GOE on the loop vs. toe, it's not worth the risk. The only place it seemed to make a significant difference in score is at the Autumn Classic where several of his elements were lower quality - the poorer the quality of elements, the more the base value matters.

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I made a worksheet to see what the big 3 would have gotten if they skated their planned layout cleanly in each of their competitions. I used the highest PCS for each segment in all the programs. None of them skated a completely clean free skate and Nathan doesn't have a completely clean SP so their PCS scores are probably a bit lower than what they would get for a clean program. I only changed the GOE for step outs or falls. I tried to replace any jump error GOE with a clean element from the same competition but if there wasn't a comparable one, I just plugged in a 3. I also adjusted all levels to lvl 4 and pops to what I think they were trying to attempt in the moment Nathan - Different layouts for every event. SP PCS = 44.64 (SA), LP PCS = 90.94 (SA) Skate America: 100.98+193.18=294.16 IDF: 100.29 + 196.06 = 296.35 GPF: 105.92 + 209.15 = 315.06 - only competition with 6 quads Average Score = 301.86 Shoma - SP PCS = 46.35 (Lombardia), LP PCS = 92.88 (4CC). I changed all the SP layouts to 4t/3t even though he only attempted it in 1 event, with the assumption that it was because something was wrong rather than what he planned. I also removed all < in spite of getting them in every event. Lombardia: 107.76 + 208.19 = 315.95 Skate Canada: 106.53+209.54 = 316.06 NHK: 108.23 + 210.29 = 318.52 GPF: 106.19 + 207.88 = 314.08 4CC: 97.26 + 201.15 = 298.41 (only competition with only 4 quads) Average Score = 312.60 Since Shoma's doubled the 3t of the combo in the short of every event except Sk Can and < or stepped out of the 4s in every event, I also figured his scores with 4s< and 4t/2t Lombardia: 307.72 Skate Canada: 310.73 NHK: 310.29 GPF: 305.85 4CC: 298.41 (no change needed to layout) Average Score = 306.60 Yuzu - SP PCS = 48.09 (Rostelecom), LP PCS = 92.42 (Helsinki) Autumn Classic: 108.37 + 205.63 = 314 (had to make a lot of changes to layout due to mistakes) Helsinki: 109.93 + 209.18 = 319.11 Rostelecom: 110.53 + 203.59 = 314.99 (only 5 quads instead of 6) Average Score = 315.74 Notable that Yuzu's Rostelecom score ended up being higher than his Autumn Classic score in spite of me changing his layout at AC to 6 attempted quads because of lower quality elements. Nathan's 6 quad BV at GPF was 10 points higher than Yuzu's 5 quad Rostelecom BV but there is only .07 difference in score.

Sorry if I'm rehashing - it only just now occurred to me to check this thread. But I'm so confused as to why Voronov isn't in any of these smaller competitions unless he's still sick or injured. I realize that he has no chance at medaling at worlds but neither does Kovtun and Voronov has had a much better international season. It's looking like the men's team is going to be Kovtun, Samarin, and Kolyada. Samarin's had the best international season and is the only one who's performances are getting better so I think he's a no brainer. Kolyada will likely be in top 10 even if he bombs hard and is the only Russian man that has a realistic chance to medal without needing the big 3 to completely implode (though he's still depending on mistakes) so I feel like he should have his place on the team in spite of the horrible outings. Aliev and Kovtun (and Kolyada) are all head cases so you would think the Russian fed would want someone more stable to try to secure 3 spots and Voronov looks like the most reliable of the 3. It seems like there's almost as much reason for a men's skate off for worlds as there is for a ladies' skate off. In a way, it's seems more important since the men are in danger of losing a spot whereas I can't even imagine that happening with the ladies.

Here are the entries for worlds. Remember that the Russian ladies team is Alina Zagitova, Sofia Samodurova, and Evgenia Medvedeva NOT Konstantinova http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111664.htm Rules You have until the start of the first event on March 18 to get your final predictions in. Hydroblade created an event somewhere with times in your zone but I’m blind and can’t find it at the moment so I’ll have to link it later. I know how alluring that grand prize of “nothing” is but I feel that the honor system will be enough to keep everyone from changing predictions after the deadline. If you make any changes to your predictions, please edit your original reply rather than posting an additional one. I suggest predicting a top 5. If someone withdraws, I’ll bump everyone you predicted below that person up a spot. Scoring 1 point if your skater is within 2 places of your predicted placement 3 points for every correct placement Bonus questions are worth 2 point each eta: it occurred to me that maybe it doesn't make sense to award extra points for getting an entire podium or all the gold medalists, especially with "jinx factor" coming into play. Maybe I should just reward points for podium placements with bonus points available if you also correctly predict 4th and 5th - then any 6th place pick will just be cushion in case of last minute withdrawals (knock on wood ). Let me know if there's a preference. List the top 5 (or more if you want an alternate in case of withdrawal) for each discipline. Bonus Questions: FYI, in order to qualify 3 entrants for the following year, for 2-3 member teams the top 2 placements must total 13 or less. For 1 member teams, the person must place in the top 2 to earn 3 spots. To qualify 2 entrants, the top 2 placements must total 28 or less. If only 1 entrant, that skater/team needs to be top 10. Each member nation automatically gets 1 entry per discipline provided that they have someone that can reach TES minimum. For the questions, we will assume every country in question has at least 1 qualifying entry. 1. Which country will win the most medals? 2. Will we have an all Japanese/Russian ladies top 6? 3. How many of the gold medalists will win with at least 1 world record? 4. Which skater/team will win by the largest margin? 5. Which disciplines will have no falls from any of the medalists? 6. Will there be a +5 Final GOE element in the competition? 7. Who will get the most points on a single element? 8. Will anyone get a Final PCS of 10? 9. Who will have the highest total TES score? 10. Will the US increase its world team for next year (currently 9) 11. Will Canada or Japan have the smaller team next year or will they tie? 12. Will Russia qualify for 12 entrants in next year’s worlds? ETA: by composite I meant the final score after the high and low are dropped. Just realized that the way I worded it might be confusing so I changed the wording on questions 6 and 8 to "final" GOE

I highly doubt that Yuzu would do this layout, but based on previous competitions and with the assumption that he's avoiding lutz unless necessary, I think his highest scoring reasonable layout for the free skate is 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3f/3a seq*, 3a/e/3s* The seq penalty doesn't hit nearly as hard if he does it on the triple instead of the quad. While I've never seen him do a flip/axel sequence, I'm thinking it's reasonable to think he can attach the axel to a 3 flip if he's able to do it with the 4t and I believe this means he gets the GOE points for the axel instead of the flip. BV: 92.35 3 GOE: 116.05 4 GOE: 123.95 He would score slightly higher if he does 3lo/3a seq instead but he never combos the loop and the motion is so different than the other jumps that I think it might be difficult to adjust to even though it's on the front end. Obviously if the 3 lutz is good, then he'd replace the loop with the lutz.

Made a mistake. The 4s at Lombardia was actually the highest 4s score Shoma's gotten this year. But still, his average points for the 4s is lower than what he got for the 3lo at 4CC. He also hasn't landed a 4t/3t cleanly all year and has only attempted it once, where he stepped out of it. If you go by the following layout: SP: 4t/2t, 4f, 3a* FS: 4s<, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/e/3f*, 3s/3t* Max GOE: 106.55+207.18 = 313.73 Ave GOE of landed jumps in GP and later:104.43+202.68= 307.11

Yuzu I did some calculations. I think based on what Yuzu's performed in competition, his layout will be SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* FS: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t*, 3a/e/3s* Using his highest scores of the season for each element, he gets 110.72+213.85 = 324.57 I believe that he'll have the 4 loop for worlds, but if he doesn't, his projected score is SP: 110.72 FS: 3lz, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t*, 3a/e/3s* = 209.22 Total Score:319.94 - this is calculated with him getting 3.5 GOE on the 3Lz. I also used actual competition scores to calculate potential scores Rostelecom SP: 110.53 Helsinki FS: Actual TES of 98.01 + 20.7 in points lost due to errors and adding in his highest PCS from this season of 96.16 Total score: 325.4 Nathan He did pretty similar layouts for GPF and Nationals. I doubt he'll add the 4s SP: 3a, 4f, 4t/3t* FS: 4f, 4lz, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/3t*, 3f/e/3s* Using highest GOE/PCS scores of the season: 108.49+209.69= 318.18 Using GPF scores: SP: Actual TES 48.78+ 12.63 points lost due to fall/loss of combo + highest PCS of season = 106.92 FS: Actual TES of 101.79 + 18.19 points lost due to mistakes + highest PCS = 211 Total Score = 317.92 I don't think he'll do a 5 quad free skate, but if he manages a 3 GOE on a 4s with the following layout 4f, 4lz, 4t/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4s*, 3f/e/3s* = 214.30 Total Score = 322.79 Shoma SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* FS: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/e/3f*, 3s/3t* Highest GOE/PCS scores: 106.55 + 207.57 = 314.12 One thing to note is that this score includes < for 4s. He's been called for it in every event except Lombardia where he stepped out so his score ended up being lower than for the 4s<. Lombardia SP: Actual TES of 57.65 + points lost through doubling the 3t and lost level on StSq 4.15 = 108.38 4 Cont LP: Actual TES of 104.48 + points lost through step out of 3f and replacing 3lo with 4s 11.29 + highest PCS = 208.93 Total Score: 317.31 GPF SP with TES points added in: 110.57 GPF FS with TES points added in: 209.89 Total Score: 320.46 In sum, if Yuzu does 4lo, he wins even if Nathan does 5 quads. If he doesn't have it, he's at the mercy of the technical panel.

Doesn't look like it's realistic. 3a, 4lz, 4a/4t in the bonus, level 4 everything and all 5 GOE's, all 10's for PCS gets you 130.1 eta: btw, if you change it to 4a/4lo the max is 131.2 I don't think there is a more difficult possible layout for the SP eta 2: 3a, 4a, 4lz/4t in bonus gets exactly 130

Perfect! Thanks

When do we get the 2019 Worlds schedule? i want to make sure my schedule is clear for the men's SP and free skate. I'm assuming it'll be overnight for me since I'm in the US but I want to make sure I won't collapse during work or school the next day either. Also, any idea how much men's SP/FS Autumn classic and all event tickets for 2020 worlds will be? I just found out that I can just take unpaid time off if I don't have enough vacation time so I'm already budgeting for these events. I was so worried that this would be Yuzu's last year so I'm so grateful that he already announced another season so I have time to save when I'm finally done with school. I know it's early, but if anyone is interested in sharing a room or something, let's make plans in this thread or pm me. Even if we just get the same hotel room we could share ubers or something to help cut costs.

I think for a lot of them that's wishful thinking. I would be surprised if he didn't go for it even if they do mess up unless he's still seriously injured. He's never been known for playing it safe and when he finally listened to Brian at 2017 Autumn Classic his FS was disastrous. I'm pretty sure you're right. I used Dataman's method for measurement on the salchow and the length was approximately double Yuzu's height, making it just under 3.5 meters long. ... er... of course I didn't put a ruler up to my computer screen This is so clever. Now I want to collect any still photo of a jump I ever see so I can measure. Additional examples for comparison. Nathan's height = 166 cm. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/16/sports/olympics/nathan-chen-mens-figure-skating.html Shoma' height = 158 cm. Did they overlap some of the frames on the second pic? I know his jumps are smaller but he wouldn't be able to do the jump if they were that small. Maybe it's the angle. I need to find that twitter vid of Shoma's axel. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/02/c573391f7ac7-figure-skating-uno-asserts-practice-makes-perfect-ahead-of-worlds.html oops, just realized that Performlive had all the stats listed. Oh well, still interesting to see the stills side by side. eta: just realized that Performlive has Yuzu listed at 170 cm instead of 172.

I'm not that into pairs and dance these days and Yuzu is the only one I obsess over so I'll probably have plenty of time for debauchery. I predict Yuzu will keep Origin so he can focus on 4 axel and have another shot at skating it in Russia and his other pick will probably be NHK provided he places ahead of Shoma at worlds. I hope we get at least one new program next year. I don't get why he always repeats the short instead of the long (except for 2018 of course) but you would think he'd save more time by repeating the free instead of the short. Between the two, I'd rather he keep Origin because we've already seen Otonal skated almost perfectly - though I'm hoping we get to see that last little bit toward perfection at worlds. Plus, I like Jeff Buttle's work more than Shae's so I would love to see a new Buttle masterpiece

That's my backup plan. If I can't convince everyone to go in January then I want to go during Skate America. It'll still be fun to see Nathan. It'll still be the beginning of the season so I should be able to catch him before he discards all the choreography. I've actually liked his programs the last couple years before around GPF time. I hope I get to meet some of you guys next season

Jun is 17 I think 18 is the legal gambling age everywhere in the states. 21 is the legal drinking age.

I started a topic in community meetups for anyone interested in trying to set up a travel community. How bad is it that I'm trying to push my wedding to January so I can use my vacation time to go to Autumn Classic? Maybe hell will freeze over and Yuzu ends up at Skate America in Vegas so I can see him after the wedding.

But.... But... He didn't answer the question .... I want details! Pfft! was this on that "other" forum? I bet I can guess within 2 tries as to who it was. That's what I can't stand about them - there's such a huge double standard about the way they moderate over there. This reminds me. Do you guys think it would be feasible to create a Fanyu network to help each other with costs of travel? We could host each other or if you're not comfortable having people in your home share the costs of an Airbnb or something like that. Unfortunately not much goes on in MN but I'd be happy to share my guest room or split the cost of a room somewhere else.

Either that or he was a little Trollzuru even in the 3rd grade.

Incredible! World famous superstar Tiger Woods has 1 retweet and 14 likes. Glamorous Lindsay Vonn has 4 retweets, 53 Likes. The figure skater has 1.1k retweets and 2k likes. Do I overestimate Woods and Vonn's fame outside the US? Is this phenomenon because of Yuzu's lack of social media? I don't understand how Twitter works? (highly probable, don't use social media much). Woods and Vonn must have a lot of dedicated fans themselves and I always thought they were way more famous than Yuzu.

I agree. It was probably the best competition he's ever skated and the best skated LP of the season. But I also think it doesn't mean much - there was no pressure for Nathan at this event and everyone who follows the sport knows that there's a big difference between an early season performance on bad ice vs. a nationals performance when your programs are supposed to be polished and you're starting to peak. I feel like a lot of people are getting sucked in by the hype even as they're ridiculing the scores. FWIW, these are the scores I get 101.06+197.55=298.61 (I actually think his SP is great and my total PCS is pretty on par with the scores he gets internationally, though it's lower on SS and higher in other areas) Adjusted for international Chenflation (added +1 GOE for almost all the elements and +5 raw PCS for FS) 107.13+212.94 = 320.07 Also keep in mind that Chen's BV is only 5 points higher than Yuzu's. People are really over reacting. I honestly think it was just a slip of the tongue. I tend to be more empathetic because I am prone to diarrhea mouth myself. I've been an adult for longer than Johnny and I don't know how many times I've looked back on things I've said and regretted it - one time it cost me $3000 because I offered to help my parents buy a car and cut a check on the spot. It was supposed to be a loan but I know perfectly well I'll never get paid back and I don't have the heart to demand it since it's my parents. It was a bit crass and someone whose profession is PR spin should be better, but I don't think there was any thought behind it. I think Yuzu is better off dropping the sequence because he'll gain a lot more in GOE from the second axel as the first element than from the BV gain and it's more stable for him. Not sure, but isn't there also a risk of a jump getting invalidated if the tech caller decides that he "hopped" too much into the axel as the second half of the sequence? Seems like a really easy mistake to make in the heat of competition. Depending on the damage to the ankle, I think the layout will be similar to his Helsinki layout with the only question being about the sequence.

Wow, this is awesome! I never compared the 2 programs that closely. You can really see the tribute when they're next to each other. But you could always see Johnny in the way Yuzu moves so in a way, much of his career can be seen as a tribute.