Old Cat Lady

6 Grand Prix Series gold medals (2011 Rostelecom, 2012 NHK, 2015 NHK, 2016 NHK, 2018 Helsinki, 2018 Rostelecom) 6 Junior titles

2 World Championship gold medals 3 Skate Canada silver medals (sorry Zu, but it's funny) 3 Autumn Classic gold medals 3 ankle injuries in 3 years 4 National titles 4 Grand Prix Final titles 4 gold medals in Finland 4 scoring records under the new system 5 gold medals in a single season - the most he has earned - 2009/2010 (juniors), 2013/2014, 2016/2017 (if you count WTT)

It's still 4 hours away from the new year for me but looks like the majority of the planet is already starting their new year so Happy New Year to all! Crossing my fingers for great fortune and no injuries in 2019. Inspired by Jack Gallagher and ZuCritter’s 12 days of Christmas post, I thought we’d attempt to do something Yuzu related for each day of the year. let's see how far we can get. If multiple people want to do something for the same day of the year, go ahead. You can do either the numerical day of the year or something to do with the date. I’ll start with the easy one. Day 1 The number 1 figure skater!

I assumed it meant that Yuzu poked Nam on the butt (or pretended to) with his index/middle finger in the pose like the picture. Yeesh! We knew Yuzu was audacious but can you imagine doing that with a complete stranger - even if they were both teenage boys at the time?

Anyone know? Curious how each segment has been selling. Which events sold out. NHK, Rostelecom, Helsinki, and Autumn Classic all sold out right? What about the non-Yuzu/Japanese events? Was GPF sold out?

Trying to decide if I will re-subscribe. I liked that you could easily replay a lot of old competitions, but they suddenly removed all the programs before last year's GPF with no warning. I've been too lazy to learn how to use VPN's or sign up for Fuji. I've noticed a lot of comments about other streaming services crashing so as long as Yuzu competes, I'd rather pay money than deal with the stress of worrying about not being able to see it, especially with the way ISU's been cracking down on YouTube. And competitions are more fun to watch when I can watch with you guys. But beyond Yuzu, I doubt it's worth it for me. I still have to look for streams for a lot of events and most of the time I re-watch all the same events on Eurosport because I actually like commentary for competitions. Though I do enjoy no commentary for replays. Pros: 1. Great quality picture 2. Extremely reliable stream - haven't had any issues 3. Convenient/easy to use. I like that I can watch on TV any time with my Roku or online anywhere and don't have to have anyone translate to figure out how to watch 4. If you're interested in US sectionals you can watch them (though I personally don't care about them) Cons: 1. Cost. Pretty sure 59.99 is the most expensive skating service. I could probably get multiple streaming services and have access to more competitions for less. 2. No extras. Only Skate America had the gala, hit or miss with the medal ceremonies, and no interviews YMMV: Most events are no commentary.

Lol. I think this is the youngest I've seen Yuzu get identified. Surprised Shoma also got identified as a girl when he has such strong bone structure. The trend I've noticed is that the few times that these apps identify Yuzu as male is when his face looks more angular. Maybe it's that f'n perfect skin they both have.

The difference in PCS is a methodology difference - I substituted clean SP PCS for FS PCS. I figured let's be honest, judges give skaters, not programs, PCS scores, which is why Nathan can literally double the number of crossovers throughout the season and the PCS continues to rise. It looks like you also differentiated SP and FS scores whereas I used the highest element score between both and plugged it into all like elements. Looks like I made a mistake with Shoma. Plugged in the wrong number for 4t/3t (edited above) and I took his JPN Open score for 3a/e/3f and 3s/3t.

post GPF/Golden Spin update Ave Clean GOE's Uno - 9.36, 8.96, 9.32, 9.32, 9.39 SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = 107.39 FS: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a, 3a/e/3f, 3s/3t = 207.45 Total: 314.84 Chen - 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07 SP: 3a, 4f, 4t/3t* = 104.01 FS: 4f, 4lz, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/3t*, 3f/e/3s* = 203.19 Total: 307.21 Kolyada - 9.05, 8.74, 8.99, 9, 9.06 SP: 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = 99.54 FS: 4s, 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a, 3lo*, 3lz/3/2s*, 3a/2t* = 189.53 Total: 289.07 *This score is lower than previous total because I assumed that the 3lz/e/2s was a popped 3s but looked at the layout and realized that it was intended that way. Brown - PCS: 9.01, 8.89, 9.09, 9.05, 9.18 SP: 3f, 3a, 3lz/3t* = 95.16 FS: 2a, 3a/3t, 3s, 3lo, 3a/2t/2lo*, 3f/3t*, 3lz* = 178.2 Total: 273.36 Cha - 8.1, 7.81, 8.12, 8.16, 8.16 SP: 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a* = 93.18 FS: 4t, 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a/2t, 3a*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lo = 178.42 Total: 271.6 Interesting to note that a no quad Brown has a higher potential average than a 3 quad Cha Max Earned Points Chen: 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07 106.08+209.69=315.77 Uno: 9.35, 9.05, 9.35, 9.35, 9.4 105.55+207.35 = 312.9 *Note: as far as I can tell, Shoma's only been credited for fully rotated 4s twice in his career - 2017 GPF and 2017 Lombardia, which, of course, were under old rules (did not yet check to see if he landed backwards in those competitions). However, <4s still earns him more points than he would likely get with a 3lz anyway and if he every does get full credit, it brings his score up around 4.5 pts. eta: they look around 1/4 turn short at those events too. Looks like that's just how he lands it Kolyada: 9.05, 8.74, 8.99, 9, 9.06 102.44+193.98=296.42 Cha: 8.43, 8.21, 8.43, 8.5, 8.46 97.41+186.52 = 283.93 * Since his scores are generally trending up, I think this is the more relevant metric.

http://cloud.isu.org/index.php/s/lQgpjqo5tDnzjbP#pdfviewer Chen BV: 47.67+94.39 = 142.08 Projected Score: 101.26 + 201.62 = 302.88 Majorly upgraded tech though I trust Chen to follow his submitted program content even less than I trust Yuzu to tell the whole truth Uno BV: 47.1+91.43 = 138.53 PS: 107.09+208.22 = 315.30 Cha BV: 42.9+97.95=124.1 PS: 92.78 + 177.95 = 270.73 I don't have the stats for the other 3 guys so this is just a rough estimate based on their higher scoring events Messing BV: 82.13 + 41.59 = 123.72 PS: 96.87 + 191.36 = 288.23 Quad lutz added to his layout! Brezina BV: 41.6 + 77.81 = 119.41 PS: 93.58 + 18087 = 274.45 Voronov BV: 51.21 + 99.24 = 125.42 92.48 + 181.78 = 274.25 Quad loop added to his layout! Looks like his aiming hard for not last. Average total scores I also added points lost through mistakes in their previous competitions to their totals and averaged the scores out. Chen - 285.87 Uno - 307.75 Cha - 269.69

102. The way he mothers Shoma and now Jun. Previous champions were threatened by the up and comers but he nurtures and guides them. 103. His weakness for all children

75. The way his eyes squish into nothing as he smiles when he's truly joyful.

So... none of the other pervy aunties are going to say it? Considering it's devout following, it seems blasphemous to not acknowledge it. 72. That glorious 73. The wasp waist and the succulent thighs that help create that heart shape distinctive to him.

GPF is almost here. For me, the interesting thing about the 2 big guns isn't so much who wins but what is Nathan going to bring to the table? Shoma's been the most consistent of the 3 leaders with his layout. Nathan's layout has been all over the place - his fans say that he's being conservative to focus on other things but the quality of his other elements weren't any better in France. Others say that he's being conservative because he doesn't need the tech in the fields he's been in - and while that's true, the big boys tend to use these early competitions as practice so it's interesting that he doesn't use them to test run his elements. The third theory is that he's just working the system since quality is supposed to be more rewarded with this system - but scoring trends indicate that Shoma will wipe the floor with him if he manages to skate anywhere close to clean. I personally think that Nathan's lost consistency on his jumps and that's why he's watering his programs down. His only reliable quad this year has been the toe. I think this event and how he responds to it will reveal a lot about what Nathan's goals are for this year. If it's just to remain in the mix until he re-prioritizes skating in a couple years, then his best bet is to play the odds and try to skate a conservative layout cleanly. Yes, there's a chance of a clean Kolyada beating him, but there's also a chance of winning the Power Ball. The likelihood is that even with a couple mistakes, he'll beat everyone except Hanyu and Uno. Even if he skates cleanly, he's not beating a mostly clean Hanyu or Uno. And if Uno keeps delivering with the falls or Hanyu implodes, Nathan has a shot at better than bronze. Whereas if he bombs a harder program, he can lose to a number of the second tier skaters. If Nathan ups the quad count, then it indicates that he's in it to win it this year. Raf seems like a smart guy - he has to know that Nathan needs at least 1 more quad than Uno if he wants to have any control of the outcome. On Shoma's part, I'm confused as to why he's doing 3s/3t as his combo. I assume he's more comfortable with it than loop or lutz but still seems strange. It probably doesn't make a difference for the GPF, but you would think he would want it for later - he has a shot at beating an imperfect Hanyu but he needs to scrape every point he can get. Are the other 2 triples really that much worse for him? The bronze pick is tough. Keegan has hometown inflation and the highest score of the rest going for him but he's also been wildly inconsistent this year. Brezina's score is trending the right way - Helsinki was almost 20 points higher than SkCan, SkCan was over 30 points higher than US Classic - did he peak in Helsinki or is it just another step in the overall trend? Jun has been the steadiest. While it's been a problem in previous years, none of Jun's landed quads have been called under-rotated this year so when he has been getting the < I think it's more a reflection of a problem with the jump itself rather than a technique issue. In Jun's case, I think it's more about building toward the future. His PCS keep going up even with more flawed skates. He wants to continue to build that momentum - focus on a solid foundation by skating his layout more cleanly to keep building those PCS and add in more difficulty in coming years. I think the Uncles need to just go for broke. They are unlikely to be contenders for medals in the biggest competitions so may as well put everything they have into any opportunity that comes their way. Another interesting question is what exactly is Jason Brown's goal. Is he trying to win medals on the world or Olympic stage? I personally don't see it happening even if he stabilizes a quad. So far in his career, he is 0 for 17 in his quad attempts. His non-quad layout can get him enough points to win medals in most events if skated well. He's already certain to get at least one of the world team spots. Though I suppose he wants to get the quad to try to stay in the mix when it's time to pick the Olympic team in 4 years. If he's hellbent on that quads, he needs to get that competition practice under his belt even if it means losing medals in the short term. I edited the original post to include Jin, Brown, and Cha since the competition amongst the dark horses is just as interesting as among the leaders. I don't see Messing, Brezina, or Voronov being long term contenders so didn't put the work into them but might do so in the future if they continue with good results.

Been thinking that Yuzu doesn't need more than 4 quad FS to keep competing. You think in the long term, the 4 loop is harder on his ankle since he has to both take off and land with it or the 4 axel would be worse because of the greater force on the landing? Short term, I imagine the axel is worse since it's unstable.

I know I said I didn't want him to go to GPF and I still don't, but this is the first time I've actually tear'd up over this injury. I guess his withdrawal makes it really hit home on a visceral level. Can't imagine how disappointed the people with tickets are just in case he's lurking - we're disappointed in fate, not at you , Yuzu. We're so proud of you for making the right decision for your health.

*snort* My points got higher the less I follow the discipline. 2 points for men, 8 for ice dance - most of the time, I can't even pick that podium AFTER the event

I managed to find a couple more clean skates for Uno. Just discovered RinkResults.com - that site is fantastic. But yes, I found 5 skates that had 1 element barely below 0 and there's 1 skate that had a GOE at exactly 0. I'll update the above post and I'm adding Cha. For Nathan, keep in mind that the +GOE list includes pops. U.S. classic only has 2 quads, 2018 Skate America has 3 quads, and 2016 GPF had 4 quads

By clean(ish), I mean with no obvious or serious errors - i.e. step outs, called <, falls. For the ave clean GOE, I tried to only include jumps that were around the quality of a normal landed jump for the skater, as opposed to the ideal jump for them. I think the only jump with negative GOE is Nathan's 3axel from his IDF free skate and I debated whether to include it but most would consider it clean and since he often has flawed axels even when clean, I thought it still reflected a decent jump by his standards. I also debated whether to include Shoma's 4s since so far, it looks like that's just the way he lands it but decided that since he didn't get < called at Lombardia it indicates that he's at least capable of rotating enough to not get called. The intention was to see how an average group of judges might score them if they all skated reasonably well by their standards. For example, Nathan's Sk America free was the cleanest free skate I've ever seen him skate but the jumps still had minor flaws but I consider it unreasonable to expect him to have all perfect jumps when he's never skated that way before. Yuzu is a more difficult case since he's actually had that skate with all perfect jumps but I wanted something that reflects a "normal" level rather than the once or twice in a life time skate. I hope this makes some sense Successful quad Attempts Nathan - 62% - 8 (5 toes, 1 flip - !, SkAm Lz) / 5 Falls or step outs(<lz, <T, S, F!, F) Yuzu- 76% - 13 (5 sal, 7T - 1 in messy combo, 1 lo - hooked landing) / 4 (< Lo, <T, S fall, T popped to double) Shoma - 55% - 12 (5 f, 7t) / 10 (2 < but landed S, 1 S step out, 2 <w/fall or step out F, 4 toes w/falls of step outs) Cha - 58.33% - 7 (4-s, 3-t), 3 falls, 2<s - including him because he's been consistent with good quality quads Kolyada - 42% (4 T, 1 S) / 6 including pops All Positive GOE skates in international competition Nathan - 15.15% 2016 GPF fs 2016 Trophee de France SP 2017 4 Continents SP, 2017 US Classic FS (popped toe w/+ GOE) 2018 SkAm FS Notable exclusions: 2018 Internationaux de France FS - arguably clean but had quality problems on 3 axel and 3t part of combo. Yuzu - 21.8% 2012 NHK SP 2012 Skate America SP 2012 World LP - fall wasn't on an element 2014 GPF SP 2014 Olympic SP 2014 Olympic team SP 2015 World Team Trophy FS 2015 GPF LP 2015 GPF SP 2015 NHK 2015 NHK SP 2015 World Team Trophy FS 2015 worlds SP 2017 4 Continents SP - Popped 4s to 2s but still received +GOE for combo 2017 autumn classic sp 2017 Worlds FS 2018 Helsinki SP 2018 Olympics sp 2018 Rostelecom SP Notable exclusions: 2011 Cup of China - don't get why judges marked down the toe. looked good to me. - eta: just realized that this might be the 1% of the times they actually deducted when there are no steps before the solo triple. I think it was originally supposed to be the combo 2012 Finlandia (edge call) 2014 WC FS - edge call, 2 clean but sloppy landings 2016 GPF short - technically clean but very weak landing on 4 loop Uno - 13.79% 2014 Gardena Trophy SP 2016 Team Challenge Cup SP 2016 4 Continents SP 2017 worlds sp 2017 Skate Can SP 2018 4 Cont SP 2018 Lombardia SP 2018 Oly SP Notable Exclusions - Didn't watch all these videos so don't know details, but these are programs that were at or barely below 0 on 1 element 2017.09 Lombardia Trophy - SP 2017.04 WTT - SP 2017.03 Coupe du Printemps SP 2015.12 GPF - FS 2015.11 Trophee Eric Bompard - SP Kolyada - 11.11% 2018 Ondrej Nepela SP (turn on landing) 2018 Worlds SP 2017 cup of china SP (lvl 1 spin and twizzle stumble) 2016 worlds LP 2016 worlds SP 2015 Gardena Trophy SP Cha - 25% - adding him because after seeing the others, I found him impressively consistent. 2018.02 Olympics SP 2018.09 Autumn Cl SP 2018.10 Sk Can SP

Now that everyone has 2 Grand Prix events, I compiled some different projected scores. I go back and forth on whether it makes more sense to add this to the other thread or make a new one but concluded that it might be confusing to open a thread to a dead poll. obviously mods should combine threads if they disagree Average GOE received for clean(ish) elements across the Grand Prix - did not drop high and low. If an element was never performed cleanly, I subbed the average of that type of element Nathan - layout keeps changing so hard to tell what he’s planning. PCS: 8.88, 8.74, 9, 9.06, 9.07 = 44.75/89.5 SP- 3a, 4f, 4t/3t* = 101.26 LP - 4f, 4t, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 3lo* = 192.74 Total = 294 This last event has finally made me believe that he hasn't been able to do a 4 quad free skate. But just in case he is holding back for some reason, I also figured a 4 quad and 5 quad free skate LP layout 2 - 4f, 4lz, 3f/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 4t* = 198.91, Total=300.17 LP layout 3 - 4f, 4lz, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/2t/2lo*, 4t/3t* = 203.16, Total = 304.42 Shoma PCS: 9.22, 8.89, 9.03, 9.2, 9.14 = 45.48/90.96 SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a* = 107.09 LP: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/1e/3f*, 3s/3t* = 208.38 Total= 315.47 #Note - has under-rotated both his 4s on Grand Prix. Scores are for fully rotated 4s. Subbed ave of other quads for 4s and ave of triple combos for 3s/3t Hanyu PCS: 9.53, 9.43, 9.67, 9.67, 9.67= 47.97/95.94 SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* = 109.49 LP: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3a seq, 3f/3t, 3a/1e/3s = 214.97 Total = 324.46 #Note - subbed ave of quads for 4lo and ave of quad combo for seq. Kolyada - I'm throwing him in because if the world shakes off its axis and he actually manages to skate clean, he is the next biggest threat. I used stats from all events he entered because otherwise I wouldn't have enough data PCS: 9.05, 8.77,8.96, 9.02, 9.1 = 44.9/89.8 SP: 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a* = 99.84 LP: 4s, 4t/3t, 3lz, 3a, 3lo*, 3lz/1e/3s*, 3a/2t* = 193.46 Total = 293.31 His layout seems weird to me. Little tweaks could add a lot of scoring potential but I suppose with how fragile he is they don't want to change things around too much. Brown PCS: 8.99, 8.9, 9.13, 9.06, 9.21 SP: 3f, 3a, 3lz/3t* = 95.38 LP: 2a, 3a/3t, 3s, 3lo, 3a/2t/2lo, 3f/3t = 179.25 Total: 274.63 Cha PCS: 7.97, 7.67, 7.97, 8.05, 8.03 SP: 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a* = 92.47 FS: 4t, 4s, 3lz/3lo, 3a/2t*, 3a*, 3f/1e/3s, 3lo* = 177.33 Total: 269.80 Jin PCS: 8.24, 7.76, 8.14, 8.08, 8.19 SP: 4lz/3t, 4t, 3a* = 96.78 FS: 4lz, 4s, 4t/2t, 4t, 3a/1e/3s*, 3a*, 3lz/3t*=188.57 Total: 285.35 Max GOE: These are their scores using their highest points achieved during the season for each element, even if they didn’t ever perform it cleanly. Nathan PCS: 9, 8.86, 9.18, 9.18, 9.25 Layout 1: 103.97+197.65 = 301.62 Layout 2: 103.97 + 203.13 = 307.10 Layout 3: 103.97+ 208.72 = 312.69 #Note - used point total if he got a 3 GOE on 4s Shoma PCS: 9.35, 9.05, 9.35, 9.35, 9.4 = 46.5 103.97 + 204.95 = 308.92 Hanyu PCS: 9.57, 9.46, 9.71, 9.64, 9.71 = 47.97 110.72 + 210.65 = 321.37 Other Notable scores (all averages include scores of all judges) step sequence Hanyu: 3.92 Chen: 3.89 - until the IDF free skate, he had the highest average Uno: 3.83 I find this notable because a core bullet is 1) deep edges, clean steps and turns yet Chen received 4+ GOE on step sequences that were sloppy enough to lose 2 levels and skates on the shallowest edges of the 3 Choreo Sequence Chen: 3.67 Uno: 3.44 Hanyu: 3.17 Clean Axel GOE: Kolyada : 4.29 (from all events) Uno: 4.04 (GP events) Hanyu: 3.56 Chen: 1.72 (2.83 at SkAm, .61 in France - thought the drastic difference was interesting) Highest quad GOE: Chen: 3.78- 4t Hanyu: 4.44 - 4t Hanyu: 4.04 - 4s Uno: 3.39 - 4t Ave clean solo quad GOE Chen: 1.85 Hanyu: 4.13 Uno: 3.06 Kolyada (across all events): 3 Clean solo triples Chen: 2.51 Hanyu: 3.19 Uno: 4.04 (only does 3 axel as a solo triple) Kolyada (across all events): 3.19 Clean quad combos Chen: 1.89 Hanyu: 3.44 Uno: 3.33 Kolyada (across all events): 3.17 I'm sure I made mistakes, but I thought this still gives a good idea of where the guys are at right now. I looked on that other forum and most people are placing Chen ahead of Uno but Nathan's barely stayed ahead even though Uno's made 3 major errors in one event and 4 in the other - and that doesn't count the under rotation on the 4 sal (as opposed to 1 major error in both of Nathan's events). Right now Nathan is banking on errors from the other guys even with a 5 quad free skate. With Nathan's current layout, a good day for Kolyada could pass him.

Unrelated to anything thought: Whoever goes to Yuzu's next competition should bring tiny goats and Nessies to lob at Brian. Think of how fun it would be to see him carrying around all 3

They only get 1? You would think the major perk of representing ANA is free flights. Unless maybe if they're completely booked.

If he gets 9.76 ave pcs and 4's on all his elements, he gets 219.55. 4.2 GOE on all his elements + 9.62 pcs gets him 219.68 Yesterday, his ave PCS 9.618 and everything but the 4t/3t and the camel spin got >4.

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I went back and checked clean senior international skates for the major skaters of the last couple quads. The only completely objective way I could think of to define "clean" is if all elements have positive GOE. This means that skates with pops are included for "clean" skates and many skates with edge calls got excluded, which significantly reduced the numbers for both Yuzu and Shoma. I questioned whether pops should be included or edge calls should be excluded (since it's their technique at the time rather than a mistake) but I figured that just leads one down a deep rabbit hole so best to just be cut and dry about the definition. Yuzu's 2012 WC skate is included as well - another one I question but he didn't fall on an element so he still ended up with positive GOE for the skate. Patrick Chan: 12 of 92 skates = 13% Javier Fernandez: 13 of 110 = 11.82% Nathan Chen: 5 of 31 = 16.29% Shoma Uno: 5 of 51 = 9.8% Hanyu: 21 of 85 = 24.71% Interesting that Yuzu has such a reputation for inconsistency but he has the highest percentage. Of course, part of that is because his elements are such high quality that even with mistakes he can get positive GOE on them. But there were also several skates that most people would consider clean that aren't in the list - I didn't count, but I'm pretty sure the latter outnumbers the former. Also, I couldn't find the results for a few very small competitions. Shoma seems to skate in EVERYTHING.

Lol, between my massive 17 points here and 19 points for SkCan, I'm so far out of the running at this point! Rostelecom dance is hard - this must be the weakest dance field in the series. I'm having trouble even finding the names on the personal best list.... er... I mean, in my memory for my deep and thoughtful analysis eta: I gave up. I just picked a Russian sounding name for bronze