Old Cat Lady

Actually, the other reason that you want to put the axel sequence on the flip is because this means that the GOE is taken off the axel instead of the flip (I forgot to include that in my original post so I'll edit). So even with the lower GOE, Yuzu still gains more points because the GOE is taken off the axel which is worth 8 points, as opposed to the flip, which is only worth 5.3 points. For example, if Yuzu got 3.5 GOE on the 4t/3t and 3 GOE on 3f/3a seq with all other elements at 0, his TES ends up being 99.08 If Yuzu gets 3.5 GOE on 4t/3a seq and a 3 GOE on 3f/3t with all other elements being 0, his TES ends up being 97.82. Even if Yuzu got 5 GOE on the 4t/3a seq and 3 GOE on the 3f/3t, his TES only ends up being 98.77, still lower than a moderate GOE for the 4t/3t and 3f/3a seq. Actually, in this particular layout, the 3 jump combo is already on his lowest value combo. But sometimes Yuzu plans 4t/e/3s instead of 3a/e/3s. This is detrimental to his score because the 3 jump combo almost always gets a lower score than a 2 jump combo. You want the highest GOE to go with the highest BV element. What do you think is the best way to contact them?

I was just writing a long analysis of next season's strategy! Here's what I have so far: I know I’m going to sound crazy, but I wonder if there’s any way to get some of these worksheets and layout calculations to TCC. The intellectual part of me says, obviously they have resources like these, but there’s a little voice that keeps thinking - what if they don’t and we didn’t help when we could have? Perhaps they’re so busy thinking about other things that they’re not tinkering around with the numbers the way fans do. I keep thinking about how Brian made the comment about adding 12 points to his SP score when people like Shanshani and I, who play with the numbers a lot, immediately knew that Yuzu lost a lot more than 12 points from that pop. I also wonder why they didn’t modify the jump layout if they were trying to scrape every point. Anyway, moving past crazy mode to, well, still kind of crazy mode. This was supposed to be the year that Yuzu wasn’t skating for points - I think we can safely say that time is long done. So I was thinking about what he could do to get the most points next year, disregarding changing citizenship. 1. If he can’t do the 4t on the back end of the axel, then move the axel sequence to the 3f. I realize that this doesn’t have the same wow factor, but it’s worth 1.73 to 2.27 more points between bv + GOE (assuming he’ll get at least a +3 GOE on both) and seems less risky. The problem with sequencing the 4t is that it's reducing the value of his third and 4th highest value jump whereas tacking it onto the 3f is a much less severe penalty. This also means that Yuzu will get the GOE off the second triple axel rather than the 3 flip. 2. Drop either the hydroblade or the Ina Bauer or both. I think judges will compare him to his past self and one of the bullets is “originality”. Even as a fan, it’s hard not to compare his competition hydroblade to his exhibition one. Sorry, but Haru yo koi ruined me for all other hydroblades. 3. Use a fast step sequence. Nathan has consistently scored higher on his step sequence than Hanyu or Uno in spite of being worse in all aspects. Nate has also scored consistently higher in his SP step seq than his LP step seq. This is undoubtedly partly because the SP step seq hides his weaknesses better, but I think judges also tend to equate quickness with mastery. In spite of what the bullets say, the deceleration for Uno and Hanyu is actually working against them. 4. Have the 3 combos immediately past the 2 min mark. The primary influencer of the score seems to be cleanliness so he should do whatever he can to make sure he’s clean. 5. Eliminate the difficult entries. I’ve heard several asshats say that since it isn’t “creative or original” he shouldn’t get credit for the bullet for steps before the jump, in spite of the “OR” between the statements. The judges who are actually following the guidelines will give him +5 anyway since he’s usually fulfilling 6 bullets, and the rest are looking for any excuse to not give him credit so will find some excuse to find something wrong no matter what. As stated in point #4, the primary factor in the GOE’s seem to be the quality of the landing. The difficult entries not only make the jump harder to land well but sap his energy for the rest of the program, making later jumps more difficult. 6. Cut down on transitions. Yuzu only got .11 more points on transitions than Nathan. The judges clearly don’t care about the disparity in quality. Yuzu should still keep more than Nathan (shouldn’t be hard to do more than waving his arms around while gliding into a jump) since the judges do seem to “rank” skaters with PCS, but he should save as much energy for the jumps as possible - again, see point #4. Once again, the transitions are sapping his energy, making him more tired for the jumps. However, wait until half way through the season to cut those transitions and difficult entries. This is the strategy that Raf has successfully employed the last 2 seasons. Start the season with a fuller program but an easier jump layout to make sure you can go mostly clean while developing a pcs baseline. The one consistent pattern throughout the years has been that the PCS ceiling gets higher when a skater shows consistency. 7. Move the 3 jump combo to his lowest value combo. The judges consistently give lower GOE to 3 jumps combos vs 2 jump combos. 8. Move the step sequence to the end. It is one of his Wow! elements and makes his layout more unique and leave the best final impression on the judges. It also means that he can move the jumps earlier so he has more energy for them. As for Layouts, based on what he is likely able to do: The highest scoring layout is 4lo 4s 4t 3lz (he's done it in practice so we know he's capable.) 4t/3t* 3f/3a seq* 3a/e/3s* This gives a FS base value of 93.35 compared to Chen's BV of 94.39 If we make the first combo a 4s/3t, it brings his base up to 93.57, though I don't think it's worth it considering how much less consistent that combo is. Though we should keep in mind that his base value for this worlds was high enough to win. The difference in score was entirely the mistakes on those two 4s's. Then he had the mistake on the step sequence as well (I saw it in real time and gasped when I saw it). However, he should still plan to upgrade his layout since he should anticipate improvement not only from Chen but who knows what might suddenly show up. eta: btw, if you change Chen's layout to 4lz, 4f, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t, 4t/3t, 3f/e/3s, his BV goes up to 98.55. Yuzu would either need to take a lead in the short or score about .7 higher in GOE to win.

Shoma looks BUFF in this picture. I never realized how much bigger his shoulders were than Nate and Jun's

I don't think we'd want to do that for singles skating because a skater with worse skating skills will get more speed with doing straight crossovers than a skater that is doing a lot of complicated turns and steps. But I was disappointed that it didn't get used for ice dance. I thought the ice scope would have been great on twizzles to show how much distance gets covered. I think an ice scope like device could also be used to help with the composition mark. Either judges could get access to a screen showing the exact pattern of the program or there could be some sort of automatic thing that a minimum percentage of the ice needs to get covered to reach a certain score.

I can't believe I forgot about Nobu! After Yuzu, I think his is the program I watched most this season. It's sort of a guilty pleasure - I know it's cheesy but it's so fun and the fact that he doesn't take himself seriously makes it joyful rather than schmaltzy. But outside of Japan Open, which is in the beginning of the season and a fluff competition that's easy to forget, Chen hasn't had any major bombs while Uno's bombed at least one program every competition and in his only clean program of the year which was also at the beginning of the year and easy to forget, he still popped the back end of his combo into a double. Chen's GPF performance wasn't great but it was overshadowed by Uno bombing more. And there hasn't been a big outcry over Chen's rotations so he also doesn't have the target on him the way Uno does. Uno was also visibly tight throughout worlds. At this point, Uno needs to shake off the reputation, which he can only do through consistent performances where he doesn't get < calls. That's why he's better off focusing on cleaning up his jumps. Once he can improve his technique and go clean with them, then he can work on growing artistically. Fine. You win. But I plead of you to warn me if Uno does go with Wilson Funny thing is that earlier in the year I saw an exhibition that Uno did and immediately went on the Planet to complain about how it ruined Uno's skating for me because I couldn't unsee all the artistic shortcomings that all his antis have complained about. Couldn't stand to watch Uno for like a month after that. I never looked at who choreographed it until this thread and, sure enough, there's David Wilson. I think Wilson generally only works for naturally schmaltzy styles. I'm guessing it only works for Yuzu because Yuzu is so headstrong and puts a lot of himself into the choreography. Otherwise, it seems like Wilson tries to force skaters into a box rather than creating innovative programs that highlight the skater's strengths. But Lambiel has co-choreographed with Mihoko for some of his best programs and I did like the exhibition with Shae so there is hope.

I think that Chen overtaking Uno's PCS had more to do with Uno being so inconsistent, or rather, consistently bombing. If Uno can fix his jumps and land them consistently, every other mark will go up as well. Besides - have you looked at Uno's choreographer history? When it's not Mihoko, he seems to favor David Wilson But I question how much a summer camp can do. Obviously I've never landed a quad, but it seems like it would be an ongoing process.

I think the IceScope should be used as an aide to judging. I forget who, but someone suggested that if a skater doesn't reach a predetermined height/distance, the 4 and 5 buttons automatically disappear. Same thing for rotation. The judges score the quality, and then the ice scope (or whatever equivalent) automatically deducts from the judges' GOE. Less 90 degrees, -1 (since judges are supposed to reduce for "lacking rotation, no sign"), 90 to 120 is -2 + <, 121 to 179 is -3 +<, and greater than 180 is << . I write this based on current rules - frankly, I don't think you should get both the </<< and GOE reduction, except maybe that the final GOE can't be greater than 3 since that means that the landing or takeoff wasn't good.

Are you guys doing okay financially? I noticed the Planet seems to have run into bandwidth issues lately. Sorry, I planned to send a donation earlier but ran into some fiscal troubles. I plan to send one for sure once I'm done with school and starting full time.

Was Shoma still injured at worlds? I keep wondering whether that result was mental or physical. I'm actually hoping it's physical as that's a lot easier to fix (if the injury wasn't too serious, of course). I'm not sure how much a choreographic change would do for Shoma. He already gets the 2nd highest PCS scores when he skates well. With Deniss, I continually wonder whether last year's worlds was a fluke or if his jumps are getting worse? Are the jump issues a matter of coaching or does he just not have the natural jumping talent? As much as I love ogling him, if Stephane is a poor jump coach, he really shouldn't be the primary coach of an elite skater when the jumps are so much of the score - in both TES and PCS apparently.

Finally, a category Canada can win! 1. Nam Nguyen 2. Keegan Messing 3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

We’re at the last big competition of the year so I figured we’d do another game because, why not? All the entries are in the second post of this thread. https://planethanyu.com/topic/906-2019-world-team-trophy-11-1404/ If you want to make changes, please edit your original post rather than making a new one. 3 Points for each correct placement. 1 point if you’re within 1 spot 1. List the top 3 combined totals for men 2. List the top 3 combined totals for ladies 2 Points for each correct placement (figured they’re smaller fields so should be worth less than for the singles disciplines) 3. Which country’s teams will be the gold, silver, and bronze medalists? 4. List the top 3 combined totals for pairs 5. List the top 3 combined totals for dance 6. Who will earn the most points on each team (remember that points are based on placement in each of the segments rather than score) 2 Points for each correct answer - you can choose across all disciplines. 7. Who will receive the highest raw GOE on a jump (includes throws for pairs)? 8. Who will receive the highest raw GOE on a non-jump element. If multiple skaters tie, it will be based on who gets the most elements with that GOE. If there is still a tie, choosing any of those skaters will get you the points. 9. Who will receive the highest raw PCS score? 10. For those who attended both, whose total score will improve the most from worlds? 11. In which disciplines, will there be a new world record? 12. Which country’s teams will have no falls or pops of greater than 1 rotation (i.e. quad to double, triples to singles)? 13. Will there be any singles skaters that have all positive GOE and level 4’s throughout the competition?

Poor Shoma. That cut looks so bad on him.

This makes me think that maybe a coaching change is in order. Fixing jump technique seems like a full time job and his non-jump skating is already the best in the world. If he needs to be sent to other coaches to fix his jumps then perhaps his coaches have taken him as far as they are able.

Though I've been watching skating for 25 years, I'm a lapsed fan so I can't really judge improvement on anyone who didn't skate at 2018 Olympics and Worlds or was a top skater at major events before that. With that in mind... Men Hard to pick most improved between Boyang and Nathan because they both made trade offs. Boyang has improved so much in PCS and spins but jumps have degraded. I also miss the playful joy from previous years. It was my favorite thing about him. I'm hoping that next year it will be back along with quality jump landings. Nathan's jump landings and spins are better quality than last year but it's hard to look past the fact that judges once again rewarded him for stripping his programs of choreography. I preferred both last year's programs over this year's. Nathan gets most improved hair and skin over the course of the season. Heck, maybe I'll give most improved to Yuzu. He's the only one of the top men to upgrade his tech without sacrificing performance. I'll give Kolyada the most improved program award. It's too bad his results weren't better this year. His Carmen deserves to be one of the iconic singles programs with that music. To think, I didn't like it when I first saw it but now I think this music was the perfect vehicle for him. Huge step up from that horrendous Elvis medley. Shoma seems pretty much the same but less consistent. I wonder if the pressure is getting to him now that he's expected to medal and there's been so much criticism over his silvers. I love his skating but I keep wondering how he'll fare in the coming years - he's always under rotated that 4sal by a quarter, his loop apparently required adjustment to his blade that doesn't work anymore, his flip is pretty much always under rotated to some degree, and for some reason, his 4t/3t is MIA this season. I guess he's never had much motive to correct his technique before but now that the rules have changed and he's developed a reputation, he's getting called and will have to fix at least one of his quads. Can he? In spite of the world medal, Vincent still seems about the same level as last year. I'm also not as enamored of Cha as a lot of other people are. His presentation still looks very juniorish to me and he's another one that chronically under rotates, except he doesn't even have higher point quads to under rotate. My biggest hopes for next year: Kolyada strings together clean programs at worlds, Bubbly Boyang returns and gets rewarded for his improvements, and that Yuzu is injury free. Ladies Since I didn't see Rika last year, I'd say Kaori is the most improved of the ladies. Last year, my only thought when she was skating was about how boring she was. This year, while she's still not the best performer, my first thoughts are about how powerful her skating is. Tursynbaeva has also improved but not by nearly as much as her scores would indicate. Her performance ability is non-existent. Of all the ladies, I thought she was least deserving of her PCS scores. Alina Zagitova has probably regressed the most, both technically and artistically, which makes it even more impressive that she still ended up the top lady. I admire her grit and am happy that she was able to get her world title. Overall, the ladies programs were underwhelming but I love Satoko Miyahara's LP. She was by far the most beautiful skater. Hopes for next year: Team Japan kicks David Wilson to the curb. He choreographed so many snoozers this year. Pairs The only pair that I really loved were Sui/Han. They emanate greatness as soon as they step onto the ice. Grudging most improved is probably Zabiako/Enbert. Their presentation went from insufferably boring to cheesy but at least they're trying and I actually find them entertaining this year. Their elements are smoother this year and they're more polished. Last year, I couldn't sit through a program but this year I'm able to pay attention long enough to notice the fine details like how pretty her feet are during their twist and how fast they spin on the sbs spins. I doubt they'll ever be great performers but with time, maybe they can progress from an Elsova/Bushkov type to a Totmianina/Marinin type. Best newcomers: Boikova/Kozlovskii. Their skating is delightful and they're well matched. I wonder if they'll ever be able to skate "big". I think that's what it takes to get to the top these days. Tarasova/Morozov same ol, same ol. Hopes for next year: T/M figure out their style and cater to their strengths rather than trying to force a style for the sake of versatility and that they're able to get their nerves under control. That Sui/Han stay injury free. And that Vanessa James works on being a more polished skater. Dance The one good thing about being a lapsed fan is that I haven't seen Papadakis/Cizeron often enough to be sick of them. I can't remember when the lead ice team was so far ahead in quality from the rest of the field. I am sick of generic ballads as a whole, but I still thought their skating was gorgeous. The question is, will anybody improve enough to make it a competition by the time Beijing rolls around? I'm not attached to any of the couples so I'm looking forward to seeing how things shake out next year. I just want to see someone improve enough to conceivably challenge P/C

catching up with all 11 pages. sorry, didn't quote everyone. but I agree with the people who say it shouldn't be something too material. I'm pretty low income and even I don't usually want physical gifts because I can simply buy exactly what I want within reason and know what I like better than anyone else. And he gets gifts all the time while only living in an apartment - how much stuff can he keep? I think a scrap book type thing + donations to causes he cares about is best. 1 or two pages will be a graph or maybe just a big map showing locations of fans involved in the project. Pictures of everyone's locations might be unrealistic (or in my case, too boring to bother looking at) as it would take over the whole book. A couple pages will list the charities that have been impacted because of the way he has inspired everyone. If possible, have quotes and figures from people involved in the organizations. We could have another page showing his impact on the economy. I like the idea of including quotes about "things I would never have done if it weren't for Yuzu". He's said in the past how meaningful it was to him to know that people have taken a greater interest in Japanese culture because of him. We should have a compilation of quotes from public figures as well. I doubt he has time to read even a tiny fraction of everything said about him. I know he loves his fans but I imagine that it's even more special to hear all this praise from his idols and peers. It would be great to have a section devoted to quotes by young skaters that have been inspired by him. finally, this has been something I've been meaning to do for a while but haven't gotten around to, but I'd like to make a calendar commemorating either significant events in his life or in the life of someone who has been helped as a result of his efforts. The overall theme of the scrapbook would basically be how he has managed to change the world. I know this is an enormous project so perhaps this could be a next year cheer project but something I'd like to do

I don't get why they always gift a watch for these things. how many watches does anyone need? I wonder what Yuzuru does with all of his

What's lower than a complete numpty? because it seems like there are a lot of people out there who are incapable of counting transitions... because sexy ballet arms while gliding on two feet is considered a transition now. You're a lot nicer than me when it comes to Jason's program as well. [Admin edit: not constructive criticism]

I get that impression too just based on past patterns. Normally, when he talks about skaters, he talks about some aspect of their skating that he admires. However, when asked about Nathan, Yuzu merely said that his Nationals skate was "impressive from a numbers perspective". I think Yuzu respects Nathan as a competitor but doesn't actually like his skating. I can't recall him saying anything positive about Nathan's actual skating. Even when it comes to jumping, he references Boyang. I noticed that immediately as well. Was actually about to start a thread about strategy for next year and point out that it was literally those 2 mistakes that cost him this title. He definitely could have won against clean Nathan, inflated scores and all, if he just landed those 2 elements, and that's with most of his other elements not being to his usual quality either. That big gap is deceiving; people can't seem to grasp how much the new system crucifies you for any mistake, especially since it is a compounded punishment with pcs penalties built in (that realistically only hurt 3 or 4 skaters ) That being said, I think airi is right. While a clean Hanyu could have won, even though his other elements were lower quality than usual, the judges have unfairly forced the GOE/PCS gap to close and if Yuzu wants to continue competing, he needs to move forward with that in mind, and strategize around it.

lol, thanks. I wanted to get more from the "experts" but couldn't find much. Phil and Jackie did pretty well but they have the distinct advantages of seeing the skaters in person at the events and not fearing the jinx - most of us didn't get involved in the men's predictions. TSL wasn't ballsy enough to make actual placement predictions - I guess they're afraid to now since they've been so off so many times. I recently watched their 2014 worlds recap where they're mocking Aljona Savchenko for saying she wants to try to win Olympics in 2018 I think next year I'm going to keep the points to only the medalists if I'm going to involve the public figures, omit the men's field to keep the PH members on an even playing field, and have more bonus questions as they were the most popular part of the game. I'm open to suggestions. Maybe I'll try the google form that Joey uses for the Grand Prix but not sure what the advantage of that over just posting on the forum is. I'd like to do a pre-season prediction game as well but people seem to be more reluctant to make predictions about seasons and have to guess things so far in advance.

5. Chaplin

Here’s the rest of the results. Sorry for the delay. I listed in order of those who got the most points based on top 5 predictions but I’ll do a total for just top 3 as well LADIES Ladylou - 8/6 Jackie Wong - 7/6 River - 6/2 Old Cat Lady - 4/2 Yuzuangel - 3/3 Kaeryth - 2/1 Anski - NA/1 Sllycinnamon - NA/1 Louitunes - NA/1 Phil Hersh - NA/2 DANCE Old Cat Lady - 10/3 (how tha F did I do so well in dance of all disciplines? Wild guessing works I guess) Ladylou - 7/5 River - 6/4 Kaeryth - 5/4 Jackie Wong - 5/4 Sallycinnamon - NA/3 Louitunes - NA/3 Phil Hersh - NA/7 MEN - lot of abstentions due to jinx factor. Personally, everyone except Nathan in my original top 6 did worse (and some cases a LOT worse) than I predicted. I deleted my predictions before the men’s SP but clearly, the jinx starts as soon as the event starts so I was too late. In the future, as long as Yuzu is around, I’m definitely omitting this category for major events. Poor Shoma. Louitunes was the only one who didn’t expect him in the top 3. I can’t imagine how crushed he was to place off the podium for the first time in 3 years at worlds in his home country after so much expectation. Pretty sure 99.9% of the skating world was sure he’d medal. Jackie Wong - 5/3 River - 4/3 Ladylou - 4/3 Anski - na/3 Sallycinnamon - Na/3 Phil Hersh- NA/3 Louitunes - NA/2 OVERALL MEDAL PREDICTIONS Top 5 picks 1. LadyLou - 27 2. Jackie Wong - 25 3. River - 20 4. Old Cat Lady - 20 5. Kaeryth - 14 Top 3 picks 1. LadyLou - 18 2. Jackie Wong - 17 3. Phil Hersh - 14 4. River - 12 5. Sallycinnamon - 11 6. Old Cat Lady - 10 7. Kaeryth - 8 7. Louitunes - 8 9. Anski - 4 BONUS - ANSWER KEY - original question had to be answered exactly in order to get points. Some abstained for jinx and looked like you were picking Yuzu but unfortunately, can’t give credit without specifications. Some of you elaborated on your answer incorrectly, but as long as the original question was answered correctly, you got credit. Text in parenthesis wasn’t necessary to get credit. Russia (5) No 3 (men, dance, pairs) Chen Dance, Ladies, Pairs, Men (from that perspective, an amazing event - I think no one got this right) Yes (Papadakis/Cizeron) - CuLi4 from Rhythm dance, ChLi1/Chst from free dance, Tarasova/Morozov - 3lpth from SP, Sui/Han - ChSq1 from FS) Hanyu (4t/3a) Yes (P/C - performance, composition from FD) Chen Yes (10) Tie (No one got this right either. Might be my fault - didn’t realize that everyone from 16-24th got 16 points so didn’t fully inform everyone)) No (lost 1 in men) 1. Ladylou - 12 1. Anski - 12 3. River - 10 4. Old Cat Lady - 8 4. Kaeryth - 8 4. Yuzuangel - 8 4. Paskud - 8 4. Sallycinnamon - 8 4. Louitunes - 8 10. Hoodieaxel - 4 OVERALL INCLUDING BONUS Top 5 picks 1. LadyLou - 27+12= 39 2. River - 20+10= 30 2. Old Cat Lady - 20+10=30 4. Kaeryth - 14 +8 = 22 Top 3 picks 1. LadyLou - 18 + 12 = 30 2. River - 12 +10 = 22 3. Old Cat Lady - 10+10=20 4. Sallycinnamon - 11+8 = 19 5. Kaeryth - 8 + 8 = 16 5. Louitunes - 8 + 8 = 16 5. Anski - 4+12=16 Let me know if I made any errors. Thanks everyone for playing

I was too tired and sad to score this but I'll get to it soon. I think next year I'll omit the men's event. Clearly I didn't delete my prediction before the jinx set in

I should have asked how many world records we were going to get. 4 in the pairs event alone I feel like I wasn't very clear so I'm going to score it 2 ways. The 1st score is for top 5 predictions. the 2nd will be only based on top 3. Pairs 1. Ladylou - 8/4 1. Jackie Wong = 8/4 3. kaeryth = 7/3 4. Old Cat Lady = 6/4 5. River - 4/2 SallyCinnamon - N.A./4 Phil Hersch - N.A./2 Louitunes = N.A./2 Anski - N.A. Pakud = N.A. HoodieAxel = N.A.

Lol, this doesn't seem to be too popular so I'll throw Phil Hersch and Jackie Wong into the prediction game. https://www.rockerskating.com/news/2019/3/19/2019-world-championships-preview-men-another-epic-comeback-on-the-way http://www.globetrottingbyphiliphersh.com/home/2019/3/14/who-will-win-2019-figure-skating-worlds-my-medal-crystal-ball-perfectly-clear-on-just-one-event I keep wanting to change my men's prediction but it's such a crap shoot past top 4. I have no clue who I would want to replace anyone with.