Proposed changes for next season

[Old Cat Lady]

After Shanshani posted his/her spreadsheet I made my own worksheet and have been playing around with numbers all day.  I'm super excited for the new system. I really think Yuzu will break both records next year

 

For those who want to play as well, here's a link to my worksheet.  for .5 loop combos I just add .5 to the value of the 2nd jump rather than create another column.  Choreo seq doesn't go up by percentage like everything else so you have to change the value manually.  Please let me know if you see errors.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TKbJiEwnufGja09v0LPhvOutMgEnmtEAdrCEBOMk4Os/edit#gid=182646993

[TallyT]

11 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

After Shanshani posted his/her spreadsheet I made my own worksheet and have been playing around with numbers all day.  I'm super excited for the new system. I really think Yuzu will break both records next year

 

 

I am definitely confused but get the impression from all the facts figures and calculations being done all over the place that the only man - at the minute - who CAN break Yuzuru's records is...

(Oh, and Javi's chances of winning another Europeans to finish off with just got even better)

 

I have predictably few problems with this outlook.

 

[freyaminnie]

On 6/10/2018 at 2:01 AM, shanshani said:

Figure I might as well post this here too, since it's probably of special interest to you guys and I put way too much work into if for me not to try to show everyone. I went back and rescored some old competitions under the new scale of values + backloading rules + one less jumping pass in men's (didn't include the quad repetition rule because it would have messed up the calculations too much). Here's the link for men's and here's the link for ladies, and you can find the write up of how I got the results and a bunch of other gory details on goldenskate (are we allowed to link gs?) or on reddit. The long and short of it is that under the new rules, Yuzu benefits a lot.*

 

For instance, Yuzu would have won 2017 4CC by almost 4 points. Moreover, Yuzu's 2018 Olys skate beats Javi's personal best by 2 pts, Shoma's by 3, and Nathan Chen's pb by 7 points. There's almost a 20 point gap between Yuzu's PB and everyone else's. Even when Yuzu doesn't skate clean, his scores hold up much better than almost all of the rest of the field's (notable exception being Javi, who also gets high GOEs and sees a similar effect on his scores as Yuzu)--note that everyone's scores fall because of losing the 8th jumping pass, but Yuzu's falls less than everyone else. Nathan loses like 10 points on average, whereas Yuzu loses 4 (at least in the competitions I rescored). In one case, (GPF2015), his score actually goes up, which is kind of absurd if you think about it. Losing a triple + quad BV getting nerfed, yet he winds up with a higher score off of GOEs.

*At least if you assume judges will award GOEs in proportion to how they award them now. It's a pretty big *if*, to be fair.

 

With the reduce of time and one less jump pass in the free program I can see that all the past score is reduce from their original score.  I wonder if is it now possible for anyone to beat the WR Yuzu set at Worlds 2017 or is it going to stay forever until some rule change comes next. 

 

On the other hand, Yuzu could be the one to break his own record despite that odds..... 

[shanshani]

2 hours ago, freyaminnie said:

 

With the reduce of time and one less jump pass in the free program I can see that all the past score is reduce from their original score.  I wonder if is it now possible for anyone to beat the WR Yuzu set at Worlds 2017 or is it going to stay forever until some rule change comes next. 

 

On the other hand, Yuzu could be the one to break his own record despite that odds..... 

 

Actually, Yuzu's clean skates didn't go down very much at all, even after deleting a jumping pass--2017 Worlds FS only went down 4 points, 2015 GPF FS went down 2 points (and Yuzu's score actually went up slightly across the whole competition, because clean+high quality SPs tended to go up in score). This is because the gain to GOE points outweighs the loss of BV of the quads and partially offsets the loss of a jumping pass. If Yuzu can skate something very similar to his original planned layout for 2017-2018 minus the lowest scoring jumping pass (so this would be a layout of 4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, and backloaded 4S+3T (or 4T-3T, there isn't a big difference), 3A+2T, 3A+1Lo+3S and get around GOE +4 on all his elements and 98 PCS, he would score about 230, according to my calculations.

 

Edit: I went ahead and added a page to the spreadsheet calculating scores for hypothetical layouts, so you can see how I got to that number. I also calculated hypothetical scores for a Nathan Chen-like skater, for comparison purposes and to see what someone like Nathan would have to do in order to break Yuzuru's WR. I gave him a fairly maxed out layout that I'm fairly certain Nathan would need a season or two of development to pull off well, +3 GOE across the board, and 92 PCS (a smidgen higher than he got at Worlds). Overall, it's pretty generous. Even with those stats, he only matches Yuzu's 2017 Worlds FS record under the old system. To be honest, I feel like they made it a little too difficult to compete on BV--that one point GOE advantage across the program I gave 'Yuzu' completely obliterates 'Nathan's' BV advantage.

[freyaminnie]

2 hours ago, shanshani said:

 

Actually, Yuzu's clean skates didn't go down very much at all, even after deleting a jumping pass--2017 Worlds FS only went down 4 points, 2015 GPF FS went down 2 points (and Yuzu's score actually went up slightly across the whole competition, because clean+high quality SPs tended to go up in score). This is because the gain to GOE points outweighs the loss of BV of the quads and partially offsets the loss of a jumping pass. If Yuzu can skate something very similar to his original planned layout for 2017-2018 minus the lowest scoring jumping pass (so this would be a layout of 4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, and backloaded 4S+3T (or 4T-3T, there isn't a big difference), 3A+2T, 3A+1Lo+3S and get around GOE +4 on all his elements and 98 PCS, he would score about 230, according to my calculations.

 

Edit: I went ahead and added a page to the spreadsheet calculating scores for hypothetical layouts, so you can see how I got to that number. I also calculated hypothetical scores for a Nathan Chen-like skater, for comparison purposes and to see what someone like Nathan would have to do in order to break Yuzuru's WR. I gave him a fairly maxed out layout that I'm fairly certain Nathan would need a season or two of development to pull off well, +3 GOE across the board, and 92 PCS (a smidgen higher than he got at Worlds). Overall, it's pretty generous. Even with those stats, he only matches Yuzu's 2017 Worlds FS record under the old system. To be honest, I feel like they made it a little too difficult to compete on BV--that one point GOE advantage across the program I gave 'Yuzu' completely obliterates 'Nathan's' BV advantage.

 

Thank you for the comparison! It's great to see that a clean skate is likely to get more fair point compare to the skate that has high BV but hasn't been done clean. 

 

Though I think "Nathan" might have got higher PCS if they does really go All Clean and get +3 across the boards, but I can see the comparison on what might happen now.

 

I think if the judges do they job correctly, we can hope that the new change in SOV will make figure skate more interesting and more beautiful for this season Ci

[cirelle]

On 6/10/2018 at 7:38 AM, Old Cat Lady said:

After Shanshani posted his/her spreadsheet I made my own worksheet and have been playing around with numbers all day.  I'm super excited for the new system. I really think Yuzu will break both records next year

 

For those who want to play as well, here's a link to my worksheet.  for .5 loop combos I just add .5 to the value of the 2nd jump rather than create another column.  Choreo seq doesn't go up by percentage like everything else so you have to change the value manually.  Please let me know if you see errors.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TKbJiEwnufGja09v0LPhvOutMgEnmtEAdrCEBOMk4Os/edit#gid=182646993

 

Hmmm, I would be interested in seeing CoR 2017 recalculated. I might do that tonight if I have the time. 

[Murieleirum]

On 6/10/2018 at 7:28 AM, robin said:

 

The time cut will probably benefit Yuzu but for different reasons. Yes, 30 seconds were cut but only one jump along with it. In past free skates one jump did not correspond to 30 secs of the whole program. I think there is Brian’s opinion on this somewhere on the internet but I couldn’t tell you where he said it... but essentially, the free programs will be more tightly packed and there will be less resting time for skaters so rather than being easier on their stamina it might have the opposite effect. Yuzu’s set up time for jumps is short and precise so he won’t suffer from this as much as other skaters who “waste” more time going into jumps. So I also don’t see jump entries getting more complex due to the time cut, if anything they will get simpler 

 

Which means the difference between Yuzuru's skating and everyone else's skating will also increase visibly. Unless some youngsters (looking at you, Boyang) decide to take the harder route and work on their SS and Transitions, which would allow them both to stack up GOE points and decrease the duration of their jump preparations. Shoma is not so badly put in terms of Transitions (he has a nice 4T3T entrance) and preparation time (his 3A is solid). His programs might also feel less empty than Boyang's or Chen's. But his jump's GOE's shouldn't increase at all, since he's lacking, per se, two of the GOE bullets (very good height/lenght, good landing position). 

[Xen]

On 6/10/2018 at 1:28 PM, robin said:

 

The time cut will probably benefit Yuzu but for different reasons. Yes, 30 seconds were cut but only one jump along with it. In past free skates one jump did not correspond to 30 secs of the whole program. I think there is Brian’s opinion on this somewhere on the internet but I couldn’t tell you where he said it... but essentially, the free programs will be more tightly packed and there will be less resting time for skaters so rather than being easier on their stamina it might have the opposite effect. Yuzu’s set up time for jumps is short and precise so he won’t suffer from this as much as other skaters who “waste” more time going into jumps. So I also don’t see jump entries getting more complex due to the time cut, if anything they will get simpler 

I think the article was one with FS RU or something? But yes, that's what Brian said, that many junior men find the time constraints of the senior men's program better for stamina than the juniors version (which is 4 mins).

 

For Yuzu, this is where the fact he's so used to doing jumps from steps will benefit him-a lot of muscle memory to help him, whereas other guys have to retrain their muscle memory. But more than that, the cut in time to fit everything in makes it even more important that the skater has fast, tight spins and can hit the position for levels fast. That and the skater needs to be faster than before to hit turns and steps on the stsq where the major bulks of time are spent. Now, I could be wrong, but Yuzu does have very good spin speed, and he can hit positions very fast, and he is quick in his step sequences. While I think other guys are fast too, they are relatively slower than Yuzu, and with the push for more speed in step sequences, I think we can expect a lot more messups and LV3s incoming.

 

I actually think that if the guys go for just 3 jumps in the second half, it's actually the first half that is a time crunch-you need to fit in 4 jumps and potentially a stsq (because stsq is more tiring than a chsq) and possibly a spin. Though I guess you could also move all your spins to the latter half of the program, and go chsq spin spin spn (but how boring?), but I think most of the time crunch might actually impact the spin levels, and if you spend too much time on the stsq, it would rush your jumps and spins even further.

 

[xeyra]

Honestly, I love the hypotheticals but I think judges will use high GOE sparingly, so BV might play a big role initially because there won't be much differentiation on GOE range, no matter if jumps have differing quality. We might see a lot of +3s and a few +4s but no one, not even Yuzu, will be getting +4s/+5s regularly on multiple jumps. Maybe, MAYBE, his 3A in the SP might get the judges to go wilder.

[Murieleirum]

4 hours ago, xeyra said:

but no one, not even Yuzu, will be getting +4s/+5s regularly on multiple jumps. Maybe, MAYBE, his 3A in the SP might get the judges to go wilder.

 

Never underestimate Mr. Hanyu! 

 

6 hours ago, Xen said:

 

For Yuzu, this is where the fact he's so used to doing jumps from steps will benefit him-a lot of muscle memory to help him, whereas other guys have to retrain their muscle memory. But more than that, the cut in time to fit everything in makes it even more important that the skater has fast, tight spins and can hit the position for levels fast. That and the skater needs to be faster than before to hit turns and steps on the stsq where the major bulks of time are spent. Now, I could be wrong, but Yuzu does have very good spin speed, and he can hit positions very fast, and he is quick in his step sequences. While I think other guys are fast too, they are relatively slower than Yuzu, and with the push for more speed in step sequences, I think we can expect a lot more messups and LV3s incoming.

 

 

LGC's step sequence... favourite step sequence ever. 

[Neenah]

39 minutes ago, Murieleirum said:

 

Never underestimate Mr. Hanyu! 

 

Unfortunately it is in the hands of the judges and not Mr.Hanyu. 

 

I personally don't expect them to give him +5 even if he hits the bullets for it just like they didn't give him +3 when it was clearly deserved. I am also sure that Nathan will be getting the world champion boost as well and will have higher PC and GOE next season even if his skating doesn't improve, which is is why I don't think he is disadvantaged at all by the new rules even if he loses more BV than the others. 

[xeyra]

52 minutes ago, Neenah said:

Unfortunately it is in the hands of the judges and not Mr.Hanyu. 

 

I personally don't expect them to give him +5 even if he hits the bullets for it just like they didn't give him +3 when it was clearly deserved. I am also sure that Nathan will be getting the world champion boost as well and will have higher PC and GOE next season even if his skating doesn't improve, which is is why I don't think he is disadvantaged at all by the new rules even if he loses more BV than the others. 

 

I mean, I'd love to be proven wrong but I think either the judges will bunch up everyone at around +3s with ocasional +4s or they'll open the floodgates from the get go and hit everyone with all the GOEs. We'll have to see. I believe the judges aren't quite sure either...

 

[hoodie axel]

There will be an adjustment phase. See: Yuna's GOEs when she was producing excellent quality jumping in 2007 as she was in 2010 Olys. Though one could argue she hadn't built up her reputation in 2007 yet.

[Xen]

I'm trying to figure out how we could rescore the GOEs of old programs under previous GOE bullets, with the new bullets. Here's roughly how I think it comes out to be.

 

The "Old" bullets I'm using are from here: https://www.usfigureskating.org/content/2017-18 SP GOE Guidelines.pdf

New GOE bullets are:

1) very good height and very good length (of all jumps in a combo or sequence)

2) good take-off and landing

3) effortless throughout (including rhythm in Jump combination)

4) steps before the jump, unexpected or creative entry

5) very good body position from take-off to landing

6) element matches the music

 

My feelings based on a cursory readings are:

New Bullet 1= Old GOE bullet 4 ("4) good height and distance") and I'm not sure how judges will apply the "very" quanlifier

New Bullet 2= old bullet 5 ("5) good extension on landing/creative exit") I'm not sure what they want to do about "take off" since PR hasn't been punished so far

New Bullet 3= Old GOE bullets 6 and 7 ("6) good flow from entry to exit, including jump combinations/sequences"; and "7)effortless throughout")

New bullet 4= Old GOE bullets 1, 2 ( "1. Unexpected/creative/difficult entry" and or "2) clear recognizable steps or elements")

New bullet 5 = Old GOE bullets 3 and  7- the wording is where I'm lost, because it sounds like a weird combination of old bullets 3 (varied positions/delayed rotations) combined with the old 6 and 7 (flow and effortless jumping). It's weird, but I guess some combo of the 3 together

New bullet 6= old bullet 8 (matches to musical structure)

 

If my above hypothesis is right, and judges actually follow, I would have to say, we should be seeing less high GOEs. Mainly because before, you could get an assortment of bullets to get a +3 GOE, while now, you must get New GOE bullets 1-3 first (unless I'm mistaken), and those bullets are actually equivalent to hitting 4 bullets under the old GOE system. Hence previously, under old GOE system, you could get any random set of 6/8 bullets to get GOE+3, but now you have to get 1-3, plus 2 more, which ends up being 6 bullets but in a very specific order. And new bullet 3, if read strictly, I think should be 2 bullets must be combined together, not an "or" option between old bullets 6 and 7.

 

So if we had to rescore old programs under the new GOE:

if old program got original OLD GOE bullets 4, 5, 6 and 7= +3 GOE, can try for +4/5 GOE under NEW GOE system

If old program got Old GOE bullets of any form but misses any of old GOE bullets 4, 5, 6, 7= capped at +3 GOE under new system

 

Hmm....The only guys who could probably score+5 GOEs under the new system, are probably skaters whom even under the old systems got consistently high number of +3 from judges (and specifically must have hit bullets 4, 5, 6, 7). Currently, unless I'm very mistaken, other than Yuzu's 3A and maybe some of his quads (like 4T and 4S), possibly Javi's 4S, and perhaps Boyang's 4Lz jumps, other guys haven't been that consistent. If the skater hasn't even been able to consistently get +2 GOEs from many judges on a panel under the old system, then probably don't even consider the possibility.

 

Edit:

I've refrained from arguing over at Golden Pond and Floras, but in so far as layout is concerned, the one I'd probably choose if I were Yuzu are:

//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A for my second half 3 jumping pass

-If somehow I miss the first combo, I can immediately switch to 3A1Lo3S and 3A2T for ending, which minimizes loss.

Scoring wise:  4T1Lo3S+3A2T+3A: 34.76

                       4T+3A1Lo3S+3A2T:  34.76

Equivalent in BV, and if +3 across the board in GOEs, both are at 47.51 TES.

Not bad.

 

[hoodie axel]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

Golden Pond and Floras