General Skating Chat

[WinForPooh]

If Yuzu sees that table, I think Ghislain might be in big trouble, and Boyang might get a ninja Lutz-stalker.  

 

 

[OonsieHui]

13 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

If Yuzu sees that table, I think Ghislain might be in big trouble, and Boyang might get a ninja Lutz-stalker.  

 

 

I'm pretty sure Boyang will have a ninja Lutz-stalker regardless lol. Yuzu does not strike me as one to miss the chance to get up close and personal with basically the best Lutz in the business currently. 

 

Also, Ghislain x Yuzu = big trouble regardless XP

[Sammie]

This look so scary 

[Xen]

1 hour ago, Sammie said:

This look so scary 

That axis....wonder what would happen without the harness and fishing pole. But overall, it looks nice.

 

A certain cryptid might have seen this already, and well...let's get our wigs ready.

So Shashani, um, should we like...upgrade our calculations with 4A possibility?

I'm concerned for empress 3A's health....

[anirien]

I think this is the first time we've seen anyone fully rotate it, even in a harness, so that's certainly impressive. I'm worried this will only fire Yuzu up though. 

 

Been thinking about layouts for this upcoming season. Not sure how much it's been discussed, but I feel like, with the new rules, we may have seen the last of Yuzu's triple flip for, well,  the foreseeable future.

[OonsieHui]

Oh god. Why do I have this feeling that a certain alien is going to try for Nessie this coming season??

 

I'm like bouncing back and forth between "he knows he's got to take it slow. Injuries!!" and "there's no way in hell Yuzu is going to let anyone else land Nessie first!!"

[xeyra]

Yuzuru is recovering from an injury. Meanwhile other skaters have a lot of time and health to attempt these kind of jumps, which Yuzu doesn't. So it wouldn't surprise me if others land a 4A first in practice or even competition.

 

That's a very good attempt by Keegan. Would be interesting to see it without the harness. 

[WinForPooh]

That does look fully rotated and pretty good from Keegan. I don't expect him to land it in competition yet because he has UR trouble with his quads in competition, too, but it's still very cool to see.

 

I'm still firm in my belief that Yuzu has landed it in practice without harness. 

[shanshani]

1 hour ago, anirien said:

I think this is the first time we've seen anyone fully rotate it, even in a harness, so that's certainly impressive. I'm worried this will only fire Yuzu up though. 

 

Been thinking about layouts for this upcoming season. Not sure how much it's been discussed, but I feel like, with the new rules, we may have seen the last of Yuzu's triple flip for, well,  the foreseeable future.

We were speculating earlier about the possibility of a 3F-3A sequence because it has higher BV than 3A-2T and Yuzu seems to like axel sequences. So there's still a possibility of seeing Yuzu's triple flip.

 

1 hour ago, Xen said:

That axis....wonder what would happen without the harness and fishing pole. But overall, it looks nice.

 

A certain cryptid might have seen this already, and well...let's get our wigs ready.

So Shashani, um, should we like...upgrade our calculations with 4A possibility?

I'm concerned for empress 3A's health....

Yuzu with 4A and 4Lz eliminates Nathan's BV advantage even if Nathan gets back the 4Lo. Yuzu doesn't even have to repeat either of those quads--repeating 4S is fine. Nathan and Yuzu having the same BV means Yuzu wins in the clean skate scenario even if the GOE/PCS margins are narrow (and other scenarios where both make similar errors). I haven't done a simulation where Yuzu gets 4A but not 4Lz, but I imagined it would be like the Yuzu acquires 4Lz scenario, except even more in his favor.

[yuzuangel]

12 minutes ago, shanshani said:

We were speculating earlier about the possibility of a 3F-3A sequence because it has higher BV than 3A-2T and Yuzu seems to like axel sequences. So there's still a possibility of seeing Yuzu's triple flip.

Whoa, interesting thinking out side of the box here...although Gabby does a -2A sequence Brian surely knows much about it.

[xeyra]

It's either 4A or 4Lz, but not both for Yuzu, not for a while. This season I expect 4Lo from him and not much else, but we'll see. Remember he's playing catch up and even training 4Lz all summer last season, it was still a super moody jump that was hell on his knee sometimes. This time he has to add in recovery time to his summer so that leaves him less training time, reason why I don't expect him to recover the 4Lz this season. I expect him to want to try 4A more than 4Lz at this point. 

[xeyra]

BTW @shanshani, your calculations are mostly related to Yuzu vs Nathan, but how about Shoma, if he adds the 4S back? His GOEs and PCS are the closest to Yuzu's and he does have more BV.

[WinForPooh]

5 minutes ago, xeyra said:

It's either 4A or 4Lz, but not both for Yuzu, not for a while. This season I expect 4Lo from him and not much else, but we'll see. Remember he's playing catch up and even training 4Lz all summer last season, it was still a super moody jump that was hell on his knee sometimes. This time he has to add in recovery time to his summer so that leaves him less training time, reason why I don't expect him to recover the 4Lz this season. I expect him to want to try 4A more than 4Lz at this point. 

Considering that his 3A is pretty much back and huge, and his 3Lz is still MIA, I'd be more surprised to see 4Lz back than if he turned up with a 4A. 

 

But everything depends on how his rehab and recovery really is going. If they can get his ankle back to close to 100 percent, all bets are off, boy is goin' wildin'. 

 

If not, I will be keeping everything crossed that he just turns up and dazzles us with a couple of 3As, a whole bunch of glorious twizzles and hydroblades, flips (har) ISU the bird and skates off with an explosion in the background.

[axelnojutsu]

1 hour ago, xeyra said:

Yuzuru is recovering from an injury. Meanwhile other skaters have a lot of time and health to attempt these kind of jumps, which Yuzu doesn't. So it wouldn't surprise me if others land a 4A first in practice or even competition.

 

That's a very good attempt by Keegan. Would be interesting to see it without the harness. 

Rationally thinking it wouldn’t surprise me either but I want him to be Mr Quad Axel so bad  

[shanshani]

46 minutes ago, xeyra said:

BTW @shanshani, your calculations are mostly related to Yuzu vs Nathan, but how about Shoma, if he adds the 4S back? His GOEs and PCS are the closest to Yuzu's and he does have more BV.

I use Yuzu vs Nathan because Nathan is a good representative of the BV-centric strategy that takes a huge hit with the new rules, and Yuzu is Yuzu (and also a representative of someone with high GOE that benefits from the new SOV). Based on my re-scoring of past competitions, Shoma is somewhere between Yuzu and Nathan in terms of how much his score suffers under the new rules. He doesn't get hit as bad as Nathan because Shoma gets somewhat better GOEs than Nathan (though tbh, I'm not sure why--imo Nathan's the better jumper between the two) and Shoma doesn't repeat 2 quads or jump 4Lz (4Lz got nerfed harder than other non 4A quads), but there's still a decent-sized gap between Shoma's GOEs and Yuzu's GOEs. Boyang is roughly in the same boat as Shoma as far as GOEs go, though Shoma has higher BV and PCS. In the two competitions I looked at where I have data for both Yuzu and Shoma (2018 Olys and 2017 Worlds), their score gap grew after they were re-scored under the new rules. So I'd say Yuzu is stronger against Shoma now than he was under the old system (Shoma is in turn stronger against Nathan now than he was in the old system).

To be honest, I just know less about Shoma as a skater, so I'd have a harder time giving him a plausible layout for next season, whereas I know more about Yuzu and Nathan (and Boyang). What do you think a plausible next-season Shoma layout is? If we can put one together I can see what it should be scoring given various GOEs.
 

 

53 minutes ago, xeyra said:

It's either 4A or 4Lz, but not both for Yuzu, not for a while. This season I expect 4Lo from him and not much else, but we'll see. Remember he's playing catch up and even training 4Lz all summer last season, it was still a super moody jump that was hell on his knee sometimes. This time he has to add in recovery time to his summer so that leaves him less training time, reason why I don't expect him to recover the 4Lz this season. I expect him to want to try 4A more than 4Lz at this point.  

 

I think both is unlikely as well, but I think 4Lz is more likely than 4A. At the end of the day, he's been able to land 4Lz in practice for a while now, as well as with positive GOE in competition, so getting it back is going to be easier than getting a good enough 4A to attempt it in competition. I think Yuzu probably wants 4A more than 4Lz, but it's better to go for lower-hanging fruit first.