General Skating Chat

[shanshani]

1 hour ago, cirelle said:

 

I think I saw somewhere that Nathan had a 50/50 ratio of positive GOE for his 3A last season, so it seems like a bad idea to repeat/combo it. Though he did do it at least once last season. 

 

Hm, I didn't specifically look up Nathan's 3A success rates. Well, he did land them with positive GOE in his Olys FS and Worlds SP and FS, so it's possible he got better towards the end of the season. And he's almost certainly going to work on his 3A over the off-season, so I wouldn't count him out on repeating 3A, especially since he's done it before. But thinking about it more, there really isn't that much of a difference between 3Lz3T and 3A2T points-wise, so it might actually make more sense for him to go for the 3Lz and repeat 3T instead of 3A.

Re: Yuzu's 4Lz--I agree that the chances of seeing it in the beginning of the season are low, but I do think he'll try to get it back by the end. I guess it depends on how the season is going though. The new rules should in theory help Yuzu substantially, so he might decide it's not worth the risk this season, depending on how his rivals are doing under the new rules regime. If he wants to break his FS and overall score record again though, he's going to need to upgrade from his 2016-17 layout at some point, unless the judges are extra generous with +5GOEs. Plus, if he doesn't upgrade, my calcs have a clean and somewhat strictly scored Yuzu (3.5 average GOE, 98 PCS) just a little too close than is comfortable to a clean and generously scored Nathan. Granted, I did score hypothetical Nathan fairly generously (95 PCS, 2.5 average GOE) and I also gave Nathan repeat 4F instead of repeat 4T (and decided that 3Lz3T was worth it over 3A2T for Nathan after all), but I think Yuzu would not want to be so dependent on the judges' whims. (You can find the calcs here under the "hypothetical layouts" tab. The more realistic layouts are towards the bottom.)

 

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Why no 4Lz? Higher BV, and more or less the same quality as his 4F, so...

 

Nathan for whatever reason seems more comfortable repeating 4F (he's done it regularly the past couple of seasons). So this is more based on past behavior than anything.

 

Edit: Note that 95 PCS and 2.5 GOE is not that crazy based on what Nathan has been getting. While I do think it's more likely than not that his PCS will go down a little from his 2018 Worlds showing because he will no longer be getting the boost from following that complete mess of a final group, and at the end of the day I don't think judges will put Nathan above Shoma on PCS (and Nathan shouldn't go above Shoma on PCS if both are clean), but given score inflation and narrowing of PCS margins, it's not totally insane that he could get a 95. Nathan is also a pretty good performer with good musicality when he doesn't have to sacrifice his choreo in order to land quads, so it's also plausible that he'll genuinely improve significantly in PCS areas if he can figure out how to do both choreo and quads at the same time (and not just receive higher scores for whatever reputation or fed power or other reason).

On the GOE side, while Nathan averaged (an imo generous) 2 in his GOEs (when refactored on the -5 to 5 system) in his Olys and WC free skates, if he had cleanly landed the couple of jumps he got negative GOE on in those skates with +1 average GOE on the old system, he would have averaged about 2.4 GOE on the new system. So it wouldn't be out of question for a truly clean Nathan (no negative GOEs) to average 2.5 GOE under the new system.

[EisElle]

I think Shoma will go for repeated 4T that can give him good goe, and I agree he can backload all combos, he has the stamina and Axel and Toe are his best jumps anyway. It looks like he wants to improve on his 4S but I don't think he would repeat it and use it in combo, he has much more experience with the 4T and bv differential doesn't make it worth for him to repeat the sal, which is still a new jump (and last time he still had long preparation, so it makes sense to increase stability and learn shorter set up for good goe first, rather than train a new combo). I don't think he will drop the 4Lo, tho he might scale back to 3Lo for some competitions...(I wonder if he would jump a lutz in any form tho...probably 3Lo with positive goe is a safer bet than 3Lz for him, and in theory he doesn't need 4Lz, but he might want to go for it to be the 2nd skater with 5 types of quads.. I hope he won't go there tho)

 

I think Misha went to Raf to stabilize the Lutz and possibly the 4S too. He needs both to stay among top skaters and his main competitors in Russia (Dima Aliev, Samarin) have 4Lz too (tho with much much worse technique, but it's not like that's going to be punished), so he'll need his 4Lz even at RusNats, to qualify for Euros and Worlds... 

 

Nathan...no idea LOL I think he does feel more comfortable with flip than with lutz and if he has to repeat a quad in 2nd half I can see him go for Flip... not sure he would repeat the Toe,  idk how much he can get with good goe to make it more worthy than a decent flip  (and 4F gets higher factorization + judges boost, it might be easier to get +3 on a 4F than on a 4T)

 

RE Yuzuru, I think chances of 4Lo are high, I'm not not hoping for 4Lz for now. Probably regaining 4Lz would be ideal for many reasons, the first one being a clear statement that 'yes I'm fully recovered, my ankle has never been better'. And he could keep my beloved 3F in an non-optimized BV layout without worrying too much about the points he leaves on the table jumping a flip instead of a 3Lz. I think he can backload all combos but not sure if he wants to, it will all come down to strategy and how consistent he is in the 2nd half. I think he would go for 4S3T or 4Tlo3S as quad combo, idk why but I don't think he would go for planned 4T3T in the free (unless he really backloads all combos), he's worked too hard on former COD to drop it for something 'easier' like 4T3T...in SP the reasoning might be different, he'll aim for a really really trusted combo there, I think he's aware now the SP might weight more than before...

actually a lot of choices will come down to how much he wants to compromise his ideals with his desire to win. Of course he'll aim for gold, but he has not the urgency to win he had in PC.

I am indeed expecting a layout with 3F, but will he backload the bare minimum? Will he make easier entries into his jumps? (The goe bullet for entry doesn't even say that the steps must be diffucult or 'original'...really almost no point in going for crazy entries, half-assed steps a mile before the take-off might be enough)

 

I'm not expecting any +5 for Yuzuru, maybe some +4 at best,  tho technically most of his jumps can easily satisfy at least 5 of the new bullets, and every jump he lands well should start from +3 But I can see judges holding back and I can see them not giving male skaters the height&distance bullet easily on any triple (3A aside), so I'll probably keep complaining about Yuzu's 3F not getting enough love from judges  (I also hope Tech panels will stop making phantom calls on flip jumps and start calling more the lutz, which also has the higher BV so I would expect less leniency there plus a true lutz should have deep outside edge vs slight inside of a flip, imo even a flat edge has different severity on lutz than on flip, because in one case it much farther from ideal technique than in the other, so another reason why panels should be stricter on Lutz edge imo)

I also expect lower PCS for Yuzu's non-perfect skates, with all those new recommendations. Not something really big, but it would still further reduce his PCS advantage because I don't expect a similar deflation for the guys 'only' getting 8.75 and 9 or even 9.25

E.g. Yuzuru falls and should't get any 9.5 in some cathegory so he gets 9 or 9.25, someone else makes the same mistake but wouldn't get 9.25 anyway so they still get their 8.75, the gap in scores was artificially reduced while the actual gap in skill is still the same as before...

(And I don't like how things like SS or IN must be necessary related to technical mistakes. Also, is step out a serious mistake? UR call? Edge call? And what would an edge call have to do with IN or CO? Or a step out with SS?)

 

so imo,  while in theory the new system could advantage Yuzu with his usual GOE, I think his margin will be eroded both in PCS and GOE (because now bullets for GOE are super generic and I can see a bunch of +2 and +3 given freely on the hardest quads in particular, while judges will be reluctant with the +4 and +5 Yuzuru would deserve)

Probably he could still have an edge, but not as big as we could think from converting skaters's past scores.

(Btw thank you to everyone who run those simulations, they give a lot of food for thought)

 

I think the new system is better than I thought at first, provided that judges give the right marks (without holding back to leave room for inflation in 2022 AND without giving GOE based on reputation or type of jumps), and provided that PCS are scored properly too,  reflecting the real gap in skill among skaters (and among different components).

Of course all these 'provided that' are also the reason why I think next season scoring will be a huge mess and I'll be   reading scoresheets 

[Yuzuspiration]

Hey just wondering, but why do many skaters do crossovers with their arms extended straight out? I'm no skater, but to me it looks so amateur and interrupts the choreo, is it difficult to do them without the arms like that to balance?

[yuzupon]

1 hour ago, Yuzuspiration said:

Hey just wondering, but why do many skaters do crossovers with their arms extended straight out? I'm no skater, but to me it looks so amateur and interrupts the choreo, is it difficult to do them without the arms like that to balance?

Precisely. Crossovers are done mainly to gain speed (unless you're Uno; his team put those gazillion crossovers he doesn't need as a part of the choreo), and so they need to lean their body forward for better aerodynamic. But that upsets their balance and so they need to extend the arms to not fall on their faces.

[Yuzuspiration]

 

4 hours ago, yuzupon said:

Precisely. Crossovers are done mainly to gain speed (unless you're Uno; his team put those gazillion crossovers he doesn't need as a part of the choreo), and so they need to lean their body forward for better aerodynamic. But that upsets their balance and so they need to extend the arms to not fall on their faces.

Why does it seem so unnatural when other skaters do it but more natural when Yuzu does? Also I've noticed sometimes he doesn't even extend his arms.

[airi]

8 minutes ago, Yuzuspiration said:

 

Why does it seem so unnatural when other skaters do it but more natural when Yuzu does? Also I've noticed sometimes he doesn't even extend his arms.

Because he is Yuzuru Hanyu and is the gift to figure skating 

But really it has a lot to do with skating skills and good technique. His crossovers definitely weren't good in his early years. But of course he perfected them 

[yuzupon]

30 minutes ago, Yuzuspiration said:

 

Why does it seem so unnatural when other skaters do it but more natural when Yuzu does? Also I've noticed sometimes he doesn't even extend his arms.

Idk precisely why for you other skaters extended arms feel unnatural, so I can't answer that.

What I have noticed is that skaters with excellent edge control (Chan, JP men including Yuzu, JP ladies, Russian ladies) do not always extend their arms when doing crossovers.

I haven't studied the other skaters as closely as I did Yuzu, so I can't be totally sure. For Yuzu, I think we all know that he doesn't do many crossovers to begin with because his stroking is efficient enough that he can minimise the number of crossovers in his program. Additionally, he prefers to use chassé to increase his speed.

Skaters like Machida, for example, extend their arms during crossovers to create the upper body lines. Machida in particular used to sort of reach his arms backward instead of raising it to his sides. Chan used to move his extended arms by crossing them over. So, there are cases when even if they don't need to do it, skaters extend their arms anyway because they just like to do it. After all, extending the arms during crossovers is actually the most natural way to do it.

[Sammie]

I don’t even know where to put this. So go Team TCC! 

[Murieleirum]

I am expecting 4Lz to come back by october... dunno why I have that feeling. I don't think Yuzuru's going to give it up... it wouldn't be like him. 

[EisElle]

13 hours ago, Murieleirum said:

I am expecting 4Lz to come back by october... dunno why I have that feeling. I don't think Yuzuru's going to give it up... it wouldn't be like him. 

I'll patiently wait for 4Lo first...and I'll rejoice for beautiful 4S and rippon combo

but yes, 4Lz would be fab and a healed Yuzu would 100% want to woo that jump back to him 

[shanshani]

I was bored so I made an excel document that will auto-score a program for you under the new SOV if you enter the program element abbreviations, GOE, and PCS. It works for both singles disciplines (though make sure you remember to change the discipline cell so that the PCS gets factored correctly). Doesn't work for pairs yet, but if there's interest I might work on adding it. If anyone wants to go and rescore old competitions (make sure to drop a jumping pass for mens) or wants to play the judge at upcoming ones, the sheet will do all the math for you, including looking up base values/dealing with obscure rules regarding how BVs are calculated for jump sequences/whatever, as long as you enter the elements correctly.

 

It can be found here. Make sure to download it, as it isn't editable on google drive.

 

All cells that are light blue are cells where you have to enter information. Red cells are cells that give you various values of interest based on what you input. White/grey cells are chiefly used as steps in the calculation and can be ignored. Further instructions for how to read/use the sheet can be found in the "How to use + Abbreviations" tab. As far as I know, the sheet can handle all regularly occurring element errors (eg. <, e, REP, SEQ) and other rule issues, but if anyone finds a situation which the sheet doesn't handle correctly, let me know.

 

(I thought I saw a website that did something similar, but I couldn't find it again, so *shrug*.)

[xeyra]

33 minutes ago, shanshani said:

(I thought I saw a website that did something similar, but I couldn't find it again, so *shrug*.)

 

This one?

https://ytse17.github.io/figure-skating-calculator/

[shanshani]

10 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

This one?

https://ytse17.github.io/figure-skating-calculator/

 

Brb gonna make myself feel like I wasn't wasting my time.

 

...Actually looking at it more closely, it's more suited for converting old scores than scoring (new or old) programs by hand. Plus I don't think it handles jump sequences, which my spreadsheet should. And the +REP calcs seem to be off (I think it's multiplying by 0.8 instead of 0.7). So my spreadsheet should also be more accurate?

[freeyafanfan]

On 6/19/2018 at 3:51 AM, Sammie said:

I don’t even know where to put this. So go Team TCC! 

Zhenya and Jason with Tracy and TCC   

[EisElle]

5 hours ago, freeyafanfan said:

Zhenya and Jason with Tracy and TCC   

oooooh it still feels s weird LOL (but where's Boyang? iirc he was supposed to move around Zhenya's time too, but there are no news so far...)

Also, do you ever think that now half of the men in the last warm-up group at OWG is going to train in the same place? I mean. of course we knew that already but I was rewatching OWG yesterday and it HIT me HARD

 

re: crossovers

I'm not gonna add anything substantial if not to spam Yuzuru in all-black + fan. Here he doesn't do anything special but still those crossovers  timed to the music look so...powerful? Idk, but they give me chills (video here)

my gifs uploaded with giphy

This not to say that crossovers are worth +100 PCS, but to say that when used well they can look good.

Still, top skaters are supposed to show off their skills challenging the hard stuff in their competitive choreo, and doing many crossover certainly isn't the way to do that. For how well crossovers might be done, musical and pleasing to the eye, they won't ever EVER be as hard as difficult turns and steps done with mastery and fitting the music, and score should reflect that too. Difficult steps and turns don't only require good basic skating, they also challenge skaters more re: things like balance and stamina. And of course, the harder the element, the more focus it requires and it also becomes harder to make it look natural and part of the expression.

That's why Yuzu's crazily fast stsq are so astonishing