General Skating Chat

[golden]

china wont be hosting any events this year, including their scheduled jgp or coc 🤔

jgp has been reassigned to canada and has been updated on the isu website, coc's replacement is tba. i wonder why?

[katonice]

2 minutes ago, Sammie said:

I don’t know if it’s true. But no COC? 

Yes! Yes! Yes! A GP near me!!! 

 

1 minute ago, golden said:

china wont be hosting any events this year, including their scheduled jgp or coc 🤔

jgp has been reassigned to canada and has been updated on the isu website, coc's replacement is tba. i wonder why?

The usual venue for it was closed due to renovations for Beijing. But yeah, even Shanghai Trophy was cancelled, and that happens in another venue. Maybe they're really doing a lot of internal overhauling. 

[hoodie axel]

Probably trying to make sure their funding is now going for renovations and rehauling. Maybe they'll try for more funding, too.

[shanshani]

Speculation in other places is that it's retaliation/pressure over (what China sees as) unfair judging in the Winter Olympics across various events. I think the main complaints are short track, aerials, and maybe not the judging itself but the investigation of two Chinese figure skating judges for judging bias (one of whom totally deserves it, the other of whom I think is being unfairly singled out versus equally bad or worse judges coughUSA men's judge Parkercough). It's just speculation, but apparently China has pulled out of hosting all winter sporting events for the upcoming season. *Shrug*

[Xen]

24 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Speculation in other places is that it's retaliation/pressure over (what China sees as) unfair judging in the Winter Olympics across various events. I think the main complaints are short track, aerials, and maybe not the judging itself but the investigation of two Chinese figure skating judges for judging bias (one of whom totally deserves it, the other of whom I think is being unfairly singled out versus equally bad or worse judges coughUSA men's judge Parkercough). It's just speculation, but apparently China has pulled out of hosting all winter sporting events for the upcoming season. *Shrug*

And it might not be just olys, it might be more along the lines of "accumulated complaints" is what I'm also hearing elsewhere. We might be a figure skating focused forum here, and figure skating is gaining traction in China, but the closest equivalent to ping pong in the winter games for China is short track/speed skating.

[ralucutzagy]

I saw this on twitter too, but without any reliable source ... ugh 

[Xen]

3 minutes ago, ralucutzagy said:

I saw this on twitter too, but without any reliable source ... ugh 

The funny part is, in China everyone is talking about the twitter thing as if it is really true, and the guy who runs the QQ live stream for competitions also has a wechat, and there he even posted stuff from Tong Jian and Han Yan's weibo, that seems to indicate skaters are telling people to calm down and be patient.  Most of the rumor in China seems to indicate this move was more short track driven, and short track takes precedence in China over figures.

[shanshani]

Interesting. I glanced at the figure skating tieba, but my Chinese sucks pretty hard so if I don't put in a lot of effort to translate, I only get about half of what's being said. But I also got the sense that people were assuming that this decision was the result of politicking in response to various calls being made against China. Hopefully whatever's wrong will be fixed in the next couple of seasons. 

 

As for layout guessing, if Yuzu regains 4Lz (I'm going to be optimistic and say this is more likely than not):

 

4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T // 4T3T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A2T

 

No reason Yuzu wouldn't backload his combos, since that's what he does already. It's slightly riskier without the solo jump at the end, but if he botches an early combo he can just do 3T or 1/2Lo3S instead of 2T without losing too much BV (2T is only 1.3 pts). 4T3T could be 4S3T, but I think 4T3T is more likely. If he skates this layout clean, it should be possible for him to break his WR.

 

If no 4Lz:

4Lo 4S 4T 3F // 4T3T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A2T
 

3F over 3Lz because he's put in too much work on his flip to give it up for a measly 0.6 BV. Probably no world records with this, but should be perfectly competitive with the changes to SOV.

 

Nathan:

I'm not optimistic about Nathan re-adding 4Lo next season, because I think between Yale and his iffy 4S and 3A he has too much other stuff to work on, and I suspect 4Lo is actually the hardest non-axel quad. So:

 

4F3T 4Lz 4S 4T // 4T1/2Lo3S 3A2T 3A

 

Nathan's layout is a lot harder to guess than Yuzu's. He might repeat 4F instead of 4T, but apparently he's been working on his 4T, which to me suggests he's trying to turn it into a high GOE element and also tack on a harder combo. I think he's going to repeat 3A instead of going for 3A and 3Lz as his triples, as he has repeated 3A in the past. With the new rules buffing GOE skaters and nerfing BV skaters, he can't afford to give up too many points. If he does go for 3Lz, it would be in order to repeat 3T instead of 2T (which I think works out to slightly higher BV but less potential for GOE points. Backloaded 3A2T is 10.23 and 3Lz3T is 11.11, but the GOE bonus is calculated off 8 and 5.9 respectively. Granted, the GOE has to be pretty high for 3A2T to > 3Lz3T. But keep in mind that 3A and quads tend to get graded more leniently.)
 

Boyang:

Not foreseeing major layout upgrades because Orser is probably going to make him work on skating skills/other aspects of his performance first. BV isn't quite as important as in the past now anyway. Only upgrade of note might be to repeat 4Lz? 

 

4Lz3T 4Lz 4S 3F // 4T2T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A

 

Dropping 3Lz might make his 4Lz more stable versus dropping 3F. Boyang gets relatively high GOE on his 4Lz, and so it might be worth repeating over 4T, especially since the amount of GOE points available for 4Lz is more than for 4T. Leaving solo 3A at the end allows him to earn back BV if he botches an earlier combo.

 

Not sure about other skaters. My impression is that Shoma has not had a good success rate on his 4Lo, nor has Mikhail had a good success rate on 4Lz. The new rules punish falls a lot more harshly, so I think those two are either going to have to improve significantly on those two jumps or drop them.

[Xen]

5 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Interesting. I glanced at the figure skating tieba, but my Chinese sucks pretty hard so if I don't put in a lot of effort to translate, I only get about half of what's being said. But I also got the sense that people were assuming that this decision was the result of politicking in response to various calls being made against China. Hopefully whatever's wrong will be fixed in the next couple of seasons. 

 

As for layout guessing, if Yuzu regains 4Lz (I'm going to be optimistic and say this is more likely than not):

 

4Lz, 4Lo, 4S, 4T // 4T3T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A2T

 

No reason Yuzu wouldn't backload his combos, since that's what he does already. It's slightly riskier without the solo jump at the end, but if he botches an early combo he can just do 3T or 1/2Lo3S instead of 2T without losing too much BV (2T is only 1.3 pts). 4T3T could be 4S3T, but I think 4T3T is more likely. If he skates this layout clean, it should be possible for him to break his WR.

 

If no 4Lz:

4Lo 4S 4T 3F // 4T3T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A2T
 

3F over 3Lz because he's put in too much work on his flip to give it up for a measly 0.6 BV. Probably no world records with this, but should be perfectly competitive with the changes to SOV.

 

Nathan:

I'm not optimistic about Nathan re-adding 4Lo next season, because I think between Yale and his iffy 4S and 3A he has too much other stuff to work on, and I suspect 4Lo is actually the hardest non-axel quad. So:

 

4F3T 4Lz 4S 4T // 4T1/2Lo3S 3A2T 3A

 

Nathan's layout is a lot harder to guess than Yuzu's. He might repeat 4F instead of 4T, but apparently he's been working on his 4T, which to me suggests he's trying to turn it into a high GOE element and also tack on a harder combo. I think he's going to repeat 3A instead of going for 3A and 3Lz as his triples, as he has repeated 3A in the past. With the new rules buffing GOE skaters and nerfing BV skaters, he can't afford to give up too many points. If he does go for 3Lz, it would be in order to repeat 3T instead of 2T (which I think works out to slightly higher BV but less potential for GOE points. Backloaded 3A2T is 10.23 and 3Lz3T is 11.11, but the GOE bonus is calculated off 8 and 5.9 respectively. Granted, the GOE has to be pretty high for 3A2T to > 3Lz3T. But keep in mind that 3A and quads tend to get higher GOE.)
 

Boyang:

Not foreseeing major layout upgrades because Orser is probably going to make him work on skating skills/other aspects of his performance first. BV isn't quite as important as in the past now anyway. Only upgrade of note might be to repeat 4Lz? 

 

4Lz3T 4Lz 4S 3F // 4T2T 3A1/2Lo3S 3A

 

Dropping 3Lz might make his 4Lz more stable versus dropping 3F. Boyang gets relatively high GOE on his 4Lz, and so it might be worth repeating over 4T, especially since the amount of GOE points available for 4Lz is more than for 4T. Leaving solo 3A at the end allows him to earn back BV if he botches an earlier combo.

 

Not sure about other skaters. My impression is that Shoma has not had a good success rate on his 4Lo, nor has Mikhail had a good success rate on 4Lz. The new rules punish falls a lot more harshly, so I think those two are either going to have to improve significantly on those two jumps or drop them.

 

For Baidu bars, the general tone there seems to be this move might be prompted more by Speed skating, and figures is just collateral. Then there are some who suspect this is China's own OC pushing for something against the IOC, since the larger picture might involve all winter sports events this season. Additionally, the IOC has came in to inspect progress in Beijing, and given some precedence and how contracts kind of changed in the initial bids up to 2022, I wonder if there are some new stipulations that IOC wanted to add in, which China does not want to give in to if it is indeed a larger issue. The general tone on the baidu bars is this move has to have came from, or at least been approved by the chinese sports governing bodies. And something must have happened later than just Pyeongchang for this to have happened.

 

Also, if the events get relocated to other places, does the ISU have to also pay the new temporary hosting country to hold the event? It seems for normal GP events, the hosting skating association/country covers the cost, but in the case of emergency relocation, does the ISU have to pitch in its own funds? If yes, then it's a pretty strong move from China, since it's drying up the money for the international sporting bodies indirectly.

 

For your layouts:

Yuzu-he could start the season with 4Lo only and see how much traction it gets, and then gradually work in the 4Lz. Also my originaly BV was right, but the GOE addition was wrong, so without 4Lz, with 3/2 GOEs, Yuzu gets around 110 TES in the LP. So more likely he could break WR in SP than LP.

 

Boyang: hmm...if he's going to work more on SS, I suspect a repeat 4T and not 4Lz though, since he hasn't done it before. But he'll probably repeat the 3A.

 

Nathan: I think he'll repeat the 4F, because why not, he's done it before and his 4F usually gets pretty decent GOEs. Actually his 4F, IMO looks prettier than his 4Lz. =/

 

Shoma: I'm also worried about the 4Lo, but also his 4S. Think he'll repeat the 4S more likely?

[shanshani]

Yeah I'm very uncertain about whether Nathan will choose to repeat 4F or 4T. 4Lz seems unlikely. I only went w/ 4T because of what I've heard about his practice, but I don't follow Nathan that closely so I could be wrong. 4F makes more sense from the perspective of raw point potential.

 

Even though Boyang hasn't repeated 4Lz before, I think it's the easiest way to eek out more BV and potentially GOEs for him and keep him competitive. Right now he lags Nathan in BV, Shoma and Yuzu in PCS (and starting to lag Nathan...), and Yuzu in GOE, without being better than them at anything in particular (except his 4Lz!), making it hard for him to win even when he skates well. Therefore, he needs to compete on all fronts, and repeating 4Lz is a way to do it without taking the focus away from improving skating skills IMO.

 

I think there's a good chance Yuzu will break the SP record as long as he skates clean and executes with his usual degree of quality. It really depends on how GOEs are judged. If the judges happily use the whole range of GOEs, then it should actually be easier, not harder, for him to beat his old WR under the new system, because the total points from high quality elements goes up instead of down despite the BV reductions (eg. 4Lo +5GOE is 15.75 points, whereas 4Lo +3GOE used to be 15 points). If they're stingy about 4s and 5s then it'll be harder.

[WinForPooh]

Do you guys really think that Yuzu will stick to H&L jump layout difficulty level? I don't know what to think because for the last two seasons, we had a new jump from him that he was stabilising. So he put the newest and most difficult one first. During the Lo season, he also upped it with the CoD. During the Lz season, it doesn't look like he planned to follow it up with a Lo-combo but Lo combos are more difficult, aren't they? The smallest quad because of its mechanics, it would probably make more sense to leave it as a solo. But we know that he managed the 4Lz-3T in practice just fine before everything went to hell, don't we?

 

I've been thinking about this because of the combo backloading, too. If he sticks to his now fairly reliable combos, I think there's a good chance he'll backload all three, but if he adds a new combo, we might see that one in the first half of the programme.

 

All things going well, we probably would've seen either his 4A or his 4Lz combo in competition this season, but I wonder how much the injury really derailed, and what it will be like if he does get the 4Lz back. He said he might have to say goodbye to it for a while but that was before his rehab, right after the Olys. How rehab progresses can change a lot and it looks like his rehab is progressing really well. If he gets his 4Lz back and it's better than ever and doesn't cause him discomfort, I've no idea what to expect. 

[Neenah]

10 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

Do you guys really think that Yuzu will stick to H&L jump layout difficulty level? I don't know what to think because for the last two seasons, we had a new jump from him that he was stabilising. So he put the newest and most difficult one first. During the Lo season, he also upped it with the CoD. During the Lz season, it doesn't look like he planned to follow it up with a Lo-combo but Lo combos are more difficult, aren't they? The smallest quad because of its mechanics, it would probably make more sense to leave it as a solo. But we know that he managed the 4Lz-3T in practice just fine before everything went to hell, don't we?

 

I've been thinking about this because of the combo backloading, too. If he sticks to his now fairly reliable combos, I think there's a good chance he'll backload all three, but if he adds a new combo, we might see that one in the first half of the programme.

 

All things going well, we probably would've seen either his 4A or his 4Lz combo in competition this season, but I wonder how much the injury really derailed, and what it will be like if he does get the 4Lz back. He said he might have to say goodbye to it for a while but that was before his rehab, right after the Olys. How rehab progresses can change a lot and it looks like his rehab is progressing really well. If he gets his 4Lz back and it's better than ever and doesn't cause him discomfort, I've no idea what to expect. 

I think it is likely he will not be challenging too much difficulty in the beginning of the season at least (none of the skater should IMO). With the change of rules it is better to stick to a familiar layout you can execute well and observe how the judges are using the system before taking any risks. It is also better to start strong and push the judges to give high GOE from the beginning rather than have a bad start for the season and then try to climb up which is much harder.

 

There is off course the issue of his ankle which we don't really know much about. He did say that the 4L and 4Lz are a problem so it may take longer for those two jumps to make it back to his programs. Yuzu has a lot of work to do to get back to his competitive form, especially if he wants to do it safely. I personally expect the 4L back but I don't really know about the 4Lz since training both of them would probably be bad for his ankle and he has only a couple of months to be ready.

[WinForPooh]

2 minutes ago, Neenah said:

I think it is likely he will not be challenging too much difficulty in the beginning of the season at least (none of the skater should IMO). With the change of rules it is better to stick to a familiar layout you can execute well and observe how the judges are using the system before taking any risks. It is also better to start strong and push the judges to give high GOE from the beginning rather than have a bad start for the season and then try to climb up which is much harder.

 

There is off course the issue of his ankle which we don't really know much about. He did say that the 4L and 4Lz are a problem so it may take longer for those two jumps to make it back to his programs. Yuzu has a lot of work to do to get back to his competitive form, especially if he wants to do it safely. I personally expect the 4L back but I don't really know about the 4Lz since training both of them would probably be bad for his ankle and he has only a couple of months to be ready.

That's what I think too, but then I was very definitely shocked that he's jumping quads already. I assumed he'd only jump quads and the difficult triples after getting the total all-clear on his ankle. But he's been jumping 3Lo since end of May! I don't even know what he means by rehab, or by saying goodbye to 4Lz for a while. 

 

_{I'm in the traumatised-by-4Lz camp so I hope he sticks to 4Lo.} 

 

[cirelle]

7 hours ago, shanshani said:

Yeah I'm very uncertain about whether Nathan will choose to repeat 4F or 4T. 4Lz seems unlikely. I only went w/ 4T because of what I've heard about his practice, but I don't follow Nathan that closely so I could be wrong. 4F makes more sense from the perspective of raw point potential.

 

Even though Boyang hasn't repeated 4Lz before, I think it's the easiest way to eek out more BV and potentially GOEs for him and keep him competitive. Right now he lags Nathan in BV, Shoma and Yuzu in PCS (and starting to lag Nathan...), and Yuzu in GOE, without being better than them at anything in particular (except his 4Lz!), making it hard for him to win even when he skates well. Therefore, he needs to compete on all fronts, and repeating 4Lz is a way to do it without taking the focus away from improving skating skills IMO.

 

I think there's a good chance Yuzu will breakBut the SP record as long as he skates clean and executes with his usual degree of quality. It really depends on how GOEs are judged. If the judges happily use the whole range of GOEs, then it should actually be easier, not harder, for him to beat his old WR under the new system, because the total points from high quality elements goes up instead of down despite the BV reductions (eg. 4Lo +5GOE is 15.75 points, whereas 4Lo +3GOE used to be 15 points). If they're stingy about 4s and 5s then it'll be harder.

 

I think I saw somewhere that Nathan had a 50/50 ratio of positive GOE for his 3A last season, so it seems like a bad idea to repeat/combo it. Though he did do it at least once last season. 

[airi]

It depends on Yuzu's health, but if he can recover 4Lz safely, I really hope he brings it back to competition  We've seen how beautiful that jump can be... But it's hard to speculate because of rehab etc but I don't think it's likely for Yuzu to give up on a jump, if he only can do it.

8 hours ago, shanshani said:

Yeah I'm very uncertain about whether Nathan will choose to repeat 4F or 4T. 4Lz seems unlikely.

Why no 4Lz? Higher BV, and more or less the same quality as his 4F, so...