General Skating Chat

[OonsieHui]

It's probably been said a dozen times, but it annoys me how when you have a skater clearly ahead of the pack the response is to try to change the system so as to bring him down somehow to make the playing field level. Instead of just accepting that hey, there's this alien that's far ahead, not everything has to be a close fight, let's just score them according to their abilities, and if that means the alien is off the scales into the next universe so be it! 

 

Apologies for the random rant. 

[shanshani]

Eh, I disagree with the idea that the ISU is trying to target Yuzu with rule changes. Most of the changes implemented help him. GOEs being worth more is a massive benefit to him. If anything, the rule changes are targeting Nathan, since what the rule changes essentially did was nerf the BV pumping strategy that he relies on (I...may play too many video games) by reweighing GOE versus BV in favor of GOE and also limiting how many quads he could do. The only anti-Yuzu thing is the 4A base value, but that's hypothetical right now since we haven't even seen footage of anyone landing one in practice yet, let alone in competition.

[Xen]

22 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Eh, I disagree with the idea that the ISU is trying to target Yuzu with rule changes. Most of the changes implemented help him. GOEs being worth more is a massive benefit to him. If anything, the rule changes are targeting Nathan, since what the rule changes essentially did was nerf the BV pumping strategy that he relies on (I...may play too many video games) by reweighing GOE versus BV in favor of GOE and also limiting how many quads he could do. The only anti-Yuzu thing is the 4A base value, but that's hypothetical right now since we haven't even seen footage of anyone landing one in practice yet, let alone in competition.

I agree....I don't think what the ISU is doing is targetting Yuzu per se, and the GOEs is meant to help guys who have less quads but better quality overall. To a degree, it should theoretically help older skaters who have good quality, but less quads (think Javi here). That Yuzu is potentially effected for the good, is a small side benefit. The issue of underscoring, and the quad-inflation issue is really an issue of PCS, which so far we don't have a solution to since the core issue is national bias and politics. Now, if the GOE rules are actually applied conservatively, then technically Yuzu should benefit (he should be the only guy who could initially get up to +5 GOEs). In fact, majority of guys should be bunched at the +2 and +3 GOE part, with few (Yuzu for example) getting +4 and +5.

 

The issue of the quad limitation rule....think we argued before that the real issue was re-inforcing a giant gap between guys who have the higher value quads (4F and 4Lz and maybe 4A), versus guys who are constrained to just lower value quads. Then others also mentioned that injury is a real risk since there is more a push to get the higher value quads first versus lower value, or forcing guys to go for higher value quads even if injured (using Yuzu's layout in PC as an example of something not possible after such a rule). However, given how judging politics work, Yuzu won't be more significantly effected than he is today.

[shanshani]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

The issue of the quad limitation rule....think we argued before that the real issue was re-inforcing a giant gap between guys who have the higher value quads (4F and 4Lz and maybe 4A), versus guys who are constrained to just lower value quads. Then others also mentioned that injury is a real risk since there is more a push to get the higher value quads first versus lower value, or forcing guys to go for higher value quads even if injured (using Yuzu's layout in PC as an example of something not possible after such a rule). However, given how judging politics work, Yuzu won't be more significantly effected than he is today.

 

Actually I think the guys with higher value quads get hurt more by the quad rep rule, because they can only repeat one of their higher value quads. For instance, without the rule in place, Nathan could have done 4Lz3T, 4Lz, 4F3T, 4F, but now he can't repeat one of them and has to do a 3A or 3Lz instead. Whereas someone who could do 4T and 4S only would only lose out on a repetition of on 4S or 4T for a 3A or 3Lz--not as much of a drop in BV as losing a 4F or 4Lz. I did an analysis on the original quad repetition rule here, and even though that rule didn't pass, the conclusion should be more or less the same, just less drastic. To be honest, the idea that the quad rep rule hurts people with fewer quads doesn't make any sense to me.

Edit: at least insofar as we're talking about how easy it is for lower quad skaters being able to make up the difference in BV with higher quad skaters through GOE. This will definitely be easier post quad repetition rule--BV difference go down between people with high value quads and people with only 4S and 4T. But people with fewer quads are hurt with respect to people with no quads. The quad repetition rule narrows the BV difference between someone who isn't jumping quads at all and someone who is jumping only 4S and/or 4T. Basically, the quad repetition rule makes it easier in general for someone with a lower number of quads to beat someone with more quads.

 

Also note that this is mostly hypothetical, because even skaters with multiple quads tend to only repeat one. Most skaters, including Yuzu except during Olys, choose to repeat 3A instead. The only skater who repeats 2 quads regularly is Nathan (and maybe Vincent? Don't remember much about his layout). Looking at it that way, the quad rep rule is really 'targeted' at Nathan.

[Neenah]

3 hours ago, shanshani said:

Eh, I disagree with the idea that the ISU is trying to target Yuzu with rule changes. Most of the changes implemented help him. GOEs being worth more is a massive benefit to him. If anything, the rule changes are targeting Nathan, since what the rule changes essentially did was nerf the BV pumping strategy that he relies on (I...may play too many video games) by reweighing GOE versus BV in favor of GOE and also limiting how many quads he could do. The only anti-Yuzu thing is the 4A base value, but that's hypothetical right now since we haven't even seen footage of anyone landing one in practice yet, let alone in competition.

In theory, the rule change favours Yuzu and disadvantages Nathan because of the difference in quality. However, if we apply the new rules using the judges scoring tendencies from past seasons for both skaters, that disadvantage disappears. The judges tend to give higher GOE to quads (especially the more difficult ones) even if the quality is not great and no bullet points were met. considering how much impact the GOE will have in the new rules (its huge), this tendency of the judges will benefit Nathan very much. All he needs is to stay on his feet and the judges will most likely give him +3 GOE and that is 14.95 compared to a 4S with +5 GOE which is 14.55. Looking at this, which would be easier to accomplish a +3 GOE 4Lz or 4F from Nathan or a +5 GOE 4S or 4T from Yuzu or anyone else (history shows the former is more likely to happen). 

 

BTW, this is not about Nathan in particular but he is a perfect example considering his arsenal of quads. Any other skater who can consistently land a 4Lz and a 4F will have a similar advantage. I feel like many fans do not really realize how much the GOE will impact the scores with the new rules. It is really scary how much ground someone with Nathan's jumps potential can make up in GOE even without having perfect jumps, just because the judges will most likely give positive GOE.

 

We also keep making the mistake of calculating perfect scores and optimized layouts (especially for Yuzu), which looks great on paper but are really unrealistic expectations considering his health situation and what we've seen from the judges in past seasons. 

[KatjaThera]

2 hours ago, shanshani said:

 

Actually I think the guys with higher value quads get hurt more by the quad rep rule, because they can only repeat one of their higher value quads. For instance, without the rule in place, Nathan could have done 4Lz3T, 4Lz, 4F3T, 4F, but now he can't repeat one of them and has to do a 3A or 3Lz instead. Whereas someone who could do 4T and 4S only would only lose out on a repetition of on 4S or 4T for a 3A or 3Lz--not as much of a drop in BV as losing a 4F or 4Lz. I did an analysis on the original quad repetition rule here, and even though that rule didn't pass, the conclusion should be more or less the same, just less drastic. To be honest, the idea that the quad rep rule hurts people with fewer quads doesn't make any sense to me.

Edit: at least insofar as we're talking about how easy it is for lower quad skaters being able to make up the difference in BV with higher quad skaters through GOE. This will definitely be easier post quad repetition rule--BV difference go down between people with high value quads and people with only 4S and 4T. But people with fewer quads are hurt with respect to people with no quads. The quad repetition rule narrows the BV difference between someone who isn't jumping quads at all and someone who is jumping only 4S and/or 4T. Basically, the quad repetition rule makes it easier in general for someone with a lower number of quads to beat someone with more quads.

 

Also note that this is mostly hypothetical, because even skaters with multiple quads tend to only repeat one. Most skaters, including Yuzu except during Olys, choose to repeat 3A instead. The only skater who repeats 2 quads regularly is Nathan (and maybe Vincent? Don't remember much about his layout). Looking at it that way, the quad rep rule is really 'targeted' at Nathan.

That is the conclusion when you compare the new BV with previous BV for the same skater. When you compare the new BV of a skater with the new BV of another skater is the bigger issue, IMO. A skater who can do all the quads, can technically do 2x4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4T, 4S and 3A (plus combinations) and it won't require much effort (I don't think 2x4Lz and 2x4F was that common, because of the effort involved). A skater who can only do 4T and 4S, will, at best do 2x4S, 4T, 2x3A and then 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo (not to mention that combinations further complicate things). So I think it's not just what quads you remove, it's what you can replace them with. Add to that GOE depending on the BV, hence quads GOE will be much higher than triples GOE, and the difference can grow even more. It's 6 out of 7 jumps being quads, vs 6 (since nobody has done 7) our of 8 jumps being quads, and 3 out of 7 jumps being quads vs. 4 out of 8 jumps being quads.

 

But I think we'll only know how the new rules are until we see them at work. Who they'll favor depends on too many factors to really draw conclusions.

 

However, 4A getting such lower points so soon after Yuzu said it's his next goal - and after there have been reports he has been training it and could bring it to competition soon - is a bit too much of a coincidence, IMO. Why lower the points of a jump nobody has even landed yet? How much would a quint be then? Shouldn't be much higher, I guess. By the previous logic, it should be 14 points (4T is 1.5 points higher than 3A, so 5T should be 1.5 points higher than 4A, no?). That's less than a 4A was previously... They should have just made a BV for quints then, too, if 4A that has never been jumped is now considered not that difficult anymore. Surely quints aren't either, then? It's just another half a rotation, anyway. (Sorry, I'm still annoyed nobody defended 4A's honor...)

 

46 minutes ago, Neenah said:

We also keep making the mistake of calculating perfect scores and optimized layouts (especially for Yuzu), which looks great on paper but are really unrealistic expectations considering his health situation and what we've seen from the judges in past seasons. 

 

That actually includes my concern. We all say it doesn't really affect Yuzu because we assume he's going to get all his quads back. But there is a chance his health won't allow that and then it wouldn't be quite so easy anymore. Even a perfect Yuzu might have a hard time fending off a Nathan who lands all his jumps decently, if he doesn't have all his quads. (Though I could be wrong, because I haven't actually done the math.) And then yes, there are the judges...

[xeyra]

My feeling is BV will matter a lot initially while judges get used to the new GOE scale. They won't be giving skaters +5s even if they nail everything perfectly. It's likely a lot of skaters will be bunched up at +2/+3, which means BV will play a huge role. And consistency, since we know consistency tends to improve GOEs and PCS.

[shanshani]

42 minutes ago, Neenah said:

In theory, the rule change favours Yuzu and disadvantages Nathan because of the difference in quality. However, if we apply the new rules using the judges scoring tendencies from past seasons for both skaters, that disadvantage disappears. The judges tend to give higher GOE to quads (especially the more difficult ones) even if the quality is not great and no bullet points were met. considering how much impact the GOE will have in the new rules (its huge), this tendency of the judges will benefit Nathan very much. All he needs is to stay on his feet and the judges will most likely give him +3 GOE and that is 14.95 compared to a 4S with +5 GOE which is 14.55. Looking at this, which would be easier to accomplish a +3 GOE 4Lz or 4F from Nathan or a +5 GOE 4S or 4T from Yuzu or anyone else (history shows the former is more likely to happen). 

 

BTW, this is not about Nathan in particular but he is a perfect example considering his arsenal of quads. Any other skater who can consistently land a 4Lz and a 4F will have a similar advantage. I feel like many fans do not really realize how much the GOE will impact the scores with the new rules. It is really scary how much ground someone with Nathan's jumps potential can make up in GOE even without having perfect jumps, just because the judges will most likely give positive GOE.

 

We also keep making the mistake of calculating perfect scores and optimized layouts (especially for Yuzu), which looks great on paper but are really unrealistic expectations considering his health situation and what we've seen from the judges in past seasons. 

It's not just in theory. If you backtest the new rules using the actual GOEs the judges handed out (which I did here), you'll see that Yuzu loses around 4 points across the short and the free (entirely because of the loss of a jumping pass) even on messy competitions, whereas Nathan consistently loses double digits, even in his cleaner competitions. Yuzu would have won 2017 4CC under the new rules, not Nathan. If you run a hypothetical competition (for instance, here) with Yuzu having +4 GOE across the board and 97.5 PCS, while Nathan has +3 GOE across the board and 95 PCS, Yuzu wins in all cases except the one where he keeps something like his 2016-2017 layout while Nathan adds the 4Lo. Maybe +4 GOE across the board is optimistic for Yuzu, but so is +3 GOE and 95 PCS for Nathan, especially since he's landed the 4Lo exactly once and hasn't tried it again and still has trouble with his 4S and 3A.

Basically, in order to get a Nathan victory in a case where both of them perform similarly (ie. neither of them falls more than the other), you have to make some pretty generous assumptions about Nathan's progress and pretty ungenerous assumptions about Yuzu's. Note that so far, (on the 3 point scale) Nathan's personal best average FS GOE is 1.29 (Olys), whereas Yuzu's personal best average FS GOE (GPF 2015) is 2.64.
 

Quote

That is the conclusion when you compare the new BV with previous BV for the same skater. When you compare the new BV of a skater with the new BV of another skater is the bigger issue, IMO. A skater who can do all the quads, can technically do 2x4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4T, 4S and 3A (plus combinations) and it won't require much effort (I don't think 2x4Lz and 2x4F was that common, because of the effort involved). A skater who can only do 4T and 4S, will, at best do 2x4S, 4T, 2x3A and then 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo (not to mention that combinations further complicate things). So I think it's not just what quads you remove, it's what you can replace them with. Add to that GOE depending on the BV, hence quads GOE will be much higher than triples GOE, and the difference can grow even more. It's 6 out of 7 jumps being quads, vs 6 (since nobody has done 7) our of 8 jumps being quads, and 3 out of 7 jumps being quads vs. 4 out of 8 jumps being quads.

No, I was comparing the gap in BV between skaters that existed before and after applying the quad repetition rule. The gap always goes down once you apply the quad repetition rule. In both cases, the skaters will replace repeating a quad with repeating 3A or 3T (3T allows them to get rid of 2T). The replacement options are the same for both skaters, because they couldn't repeat any triples when they were repeating quads.

I highly encourage people to run numbers before drawing any conclusions on what will happen next season. I've made a template for this which you can find here--just input hypothetical layouts and GOEs and go to town, the spreadsheet does all the calculations for you (but you'll have to download it first). I feel like there's a lot of pessimism here that isn't really warranted if you do the math.
 

[Xen]

11 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

That is the conclusion when you compare the new BV with previous BV for the same skater. When you compare the new BV of a skater with the new BV of another skater is the bigger issue, IMO. A skater who can do all the quads, can technically do 2x4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4T, 4S and 3A (plus combinations) and it won't require much effort (I don't think 2x4Lz and 2x4F was that common, because of the effort involved). A skater who can only do 4T and 4S, will, at best do 2x4S, 4T, 2x3A and then 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo (not to mention that combinations further complicate things). So I think it's not just what quads you remove, it's what you can replace them with. Add to that GOE depending on the BV, hence quads GOE will be much higher than triples GOE, and the difference can grow even more. It's 6 out of 7 jumps being quads, vs 6 (since nobody has done 7) our of 8 jumps being quads, and 3 out of 7 jumps being quads vs. 4 out of 8 jumps being quads.

 

But I think we'll only know how the new rules are until we see them at work. Who they'll favor depends on too many factors to really draw conclusions.

 

However, 4A getting such lower points so soon after Yuzu said it's his next goal - and after there have been reports he has been training it and could bring it to competition soon - is a bit too much of a coincidence, IMO. Why lower the points of a jump nobody has even landed yet? How much would a quint be then? Shouldn't be much higher, I guess. By the previous logic, it should be 14 points (4T is 1.5 points higher than 3A, so 5T should be 1.5 points higher than 4A, no?). That's less than a 4A was previously... They should have just made a BV for quints then, too, if 4A that has never been jumped is now considered not that difficult anymore. Surely quints aren't either, then? It's just another half a rotation, anyway. (Sorry, I'm still annoyed nobody defended 4A's honor...)

 

 

That actually includes my concern. We all say it doesn't really affect Yuzu because we assume he's going to get all his quads back. But there is a chance his health won't allow that and then it wouldn't be quite so easy anymore. Even a perfect Yuzu might have a hard time fending off a Nathan who lands all his jumps decently, if he doesn't have all his quads. (Though I could be wrong, because I haven't actually done the math.) And then yes, there are the judges...

If we look at how GOEs are applied, then yes, Yuzu would be hurt under the new rules, as much as the current rules. The difference mainly is that under new GOE rules, the "hurt" is potentially bigger.  But the BV battle hasn't changed that much- in terms of pure BV, Yuzu isn't the highest.

 

How this "hurt" could have shrunk or been minimized, is if the PCS factorization got increased. That way, differences in PCs would be extended and provide a secondary buffer. However, since PCS factorization is not increased, it no longer provides a buffer, and differences can be matched by GOEs from BV%. That is probably where the concern would be.

 

31 minutes ago, xeyra said:

My feeling is BV will matter a lot initially while judges get used to the new GOE scale. They won't be giving skaters +5s even if they nail everything perfectly. It's likely a lot of skaters will be bunched up at +2/+3, which means BV will play a huge role. And consistency, since we know consistency tends to improve GOEs and PCS.

Yeah...so his first GP event silver trend might continue, and probably reverse by the time GPF rolls around and judges realize, oh hey there is a guy who has +5 GOE jumps.

[WinForPooh]

I think the concern is that the +4 and +5 GOEs won't be given out even if they're warranted. +2 GOE and 90 PCS were so rare a few years ago, but now they're handed out like candy everywhere, and the quality difference between a +2GOE 4T then and a +2GOE 4T last season is stark. As is the difference between a 90 PCS skate then (I mean, look at Stephane Lambiel's scores!) and a 90 PCS skate now. So going by what we know of judges so far, I think it's quite possible that we'll see a few +4s handed out here and there sparingly, maybe to Yuzu, and +2s and +3s handed out like candy, because they're already used to dashing off +2, and now +3 is not the highest so it'll be that much easier to give that.

 

The thing is, the letter of the rule matters less than how the judges feel. So far, judges have had the 6.0 mentality to GOE. Bullets are not really always considered, or H&L Helsinki not having a single +3 GOE jump cannot be explained. But a 6.0 mentality of saving room does explain it. I think it's quite possible to see the 6.0 mentality reset for the new GOE scale. So while we can convert the former scores to the +5 scale, it might not really matter unless for once, judges decide to actually apply bullets and do it like that, instead of using it as a new 6.0 scale. I wouldn't bet real money on them doing it.

 

If quality only matters theoretically, and judges perform as expected from previous form, then we will probably see a lot of +2 and +3GOE high BV quads in fairly ordinary quality skates. 

 

The most realistic way of testing it, the way I see it, would be to compare a skate with two 4Lz, one 4F and the rest, with an average of +2 GOE, vs a skate with only 4S and 4T, and two 3As, with an average of +3 GOE. That is what I expect to see this season, practically speaking. Because this theory of excellent quality being rewarded highly but the quality being defined so subjectively is not going to help skaters with actual excellent quality because of that subjective definition. Even with GOE bullets spelled out so clearly they fudge it, as Helsinki demonstrated, as all the lack of negative GOE for SP solo jump demonstrated. The new rules plus old incompetence and 6.0 mentality won't give us what we should be able to expect.

 

Unless the judges actually decide to hand out +4 and +5 to exceptional 3As and 4Ts and 4Ss, they'll be beaten out by average 4Lzs and 4Fs getting +2. 

 

 

 

[shanshani]

I'm pretty sure the same result happens if you give Nathan +2 and Yuzu +3. Nathan wins only if Nathan upgrades from where he is now and Yuzu stays at 2016-2017. If they both stay or both upgrade, Yuzu wins. But I'm away from my computer atm so I'll check again later. 

[WinForPooh]

3 minutes ago, shanshani said:

I'm pretty sure the same result happens if you give Nathan +2 and Yuzu +3. Nathan wins only if Nathan upgrades from where he is now and Yuzu stays at 2016-2017. If they both stay or both upgrade, Yuzu wins. But I'm away from my computer atm so I'll check again later. 

I didn't mean to ask you to do more work! I mean you've done so much already, and it's all been so interesting, it's really cool.

 

I'm pretty sure we'll see the 4Lo back, though I'm not that certain about the 4Lz, and the 4A will probably take time, so... Yuzu might stay with his 2016-17 layout, at least to begin with.

 

But I'm also not entirely sure what we'll see from Nathan because he had that ankle injury before the Olys too (remember it was leaked that he wasn't practicing 4Lz as much as he was because of swollen ankle and Raf confirmed it after the Olys) and his previous hip injury makes adding 4Lo a little unlikely, and we have to wait and see how steady and reliable his quads are when his coaching and training situation changes drastically once school starts.  As many variables as there are with Yuzu, there are almost as many for Nathan, too. 

 

Other than that, it's only Vincent who has both 4Lz and 4F, isn't it? It's unlikely that his GOE and PCS will rise quite that drastically. 

[Xen]

4 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

 

Other than that, it's only Vincent who has both 4Lz and 4F, isn't it? It's unlikely that his GOE and PCS will rise quite that drastically. 

*sucks in breath* actually that is the one guy who is going to reap the benefits, I'm not sure about his GOEs, but his PCs will likely rise, it is his second season after all. How far those PCs will rise will depend on how Nathan performs. He's got way more to go before he hits a ceiling, versus Nathan.

[WinForPooh]

4 minutes ago, Xen said:

*sucks in breath* actually that is the one guy who is going to reap the benefits, I'm not sure about his GOEs, but his PCs will likely rise, it is his second season after all. How far those PCs will rise will depend on how Nathan performs. He's got way more to go before he hits a ceiling, versus Nathan.

Harder to fudge UR, though. He'll need to fix his UR problems if he's going to get the most out of the new SOV.

 

ETA: Though obviously not impossible. Yes, Worlds FS and Boyangman's 4T still rankle. But unlike Nathan, Vincent already has a reputation for UR so his jumps are more likely to be marked for review.

[shanshani]

I expect Vincent's PCS to go up as well. I think Nathan will remain the US's clear #1 though. At the end of the day Nathan's jumps are much cleaner than Vincent's.