2019–20 Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) Thread

[Lunna]

В 12.06.2020 в 14:26, SitTwizzle сказал:

Yes but GP season will be later. There is little surprise in the cancellation of summer GP, though Japan GP was scheduled for October 11th.

Azerbaijan GP was supposed to be on June 7th, we can clearly see such an opening of borders would be too early now.

And Singapore's was for September 20th, with all the practical difficulties of a GP in such a crowded country, I don't see how they could have maintained it, and rescheduling may be unrealistic too, in such a busy place.

Azerbaijan tried to reschedule but cancelled in the end. Azerbaijan and Singapore GPs are street races and need a lot of time for preparation, so that was main reason for cancellation as was stated by organizers. I've also read that Singapore organizers said it might not worth to hold the event without spectators. For Japan GP it was said that cancellation is cuz of boarder cross restrictions, I think promoters didn't get guarantee that situation will be better in October.

[SitTwizzle]

At last I have found a page I didn't think I could find anywhere : the graphs of the daily or weekly deaths (all causes), with the proportion of official SARS-CoV 2 deaths, compared with the trend of the expected deaths, up to the end of May.

France is a bit special, seeming to lay under the graph before and after the epidemic, I think it must be because our ultra-competent statistics services claimed they need 18 months to provide accurate death numbers anytime, people dead in rural zones remaining unreported the longer (they happen to be also the most untested and unreported of highly probable CoVid victims, as whistleblowers try to make know) and government keeping asking them new methods to get the numbers they want at every change of narrative. So, for France the peak has to be considered from its base, not from the trend.

And I saw my country is not the only one with high underreporting during the peak of the epidemic.

The countries with less underreporting in this page, seem to be Sweden and UK (lower "non orange peak"), then NYC.

I should like very much to have these data for Japan and Canada, of course. Though in Canada, there were reports of many deaths rather due to a poor management of lockdown in care homes, than to SARS-CoV 2 directly.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

[Purple]

45 minutes ago, Faithyu said:

I also think that we should ignore the "award", nothing helps better than as little attention as possible to get rid of this "award" and to show ISU what we think about it.

(I think it's just so sad that skaters are deprived of the opportunity for a little carefree fun, a get-together without competition)

And for those who still want to watch the award show please keep in mind that N.C. is not responsible for what the ISU does.

As for the wrongly presented bio or generally wrongly presented facts:

I always prefer to react to something like this, but as unemotionally as possible, even if it's hard to do. If you get emotional, quick-tempered or start to hand out insults,

it will only fall back on you or you won't be taken seriously. Then it's back to: "look at these crazy Hanyu fans."

But a neutral message with the correction of facts cannot be dismissed.

 

I think most here already ignoring the awards. With Covid 19 & re opening of economies, most people are busy back at work.

 

As to the glaring error in facts, it should not be taken laying down, so to speak. 

Because 1) It sends a message to ISU that its ok to be incompetent.

2) Such glaring error is most definitely not tolerated in other sports. The respective country would immediately complain. That is if the world body of the said sport be so foolish to do such a thing to a 2X OG champ. 

I have not seen or heard of another sport(Olympic & non Olympic) treating its most decorated sports person in such a shabby manner.

 

Whenever those fan say "Its all crazy Hanyu fans", I'll say "We do not tolerate this in other sports means we also do not tolerate this in FS. Equal opportunity."  and "Other World sporting bodies  would not dare conduct themselves in such an appalling manner." Both statements are true statements.

 

Example : Complaints abt unfair judging going up to IOC. This is also done in other sports, with much more aggressiveness.

So my reply has been "What's the big deal? We also bring complaints right up to IOC if the other World sporting bodies do not respond."

 

It hopefully opens their eyes to what is professional behaviour expected.

 

[SitTwizzle]

7 minutes ago, rockstaryuzu said:

Ugh. Sweden's virus arc has not been good. I don't feel at all comfortable with the idea of having World's there even if it's a year away. Let's hope there's a vaccine by that time. 

Of course they didn't test and treat enough but as they didn't confine either, there have not been as many deaths as in countries who were ineffective AND confined.

And there are other ways of protecting oneself and others than a vaccine which shouldn't be released safely before two years.

[rockstaryuzu]

12 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

Of course they didn't test and treat enough but as they didn't confine either, there have not been as many deaths as in countries who were ineffective AND confined.

And there are other ways of protecting oneself and others than a vaccine which shouldn't be released safely before two years.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE

 

You can see that the infection rate in Sweden continues to climb. 

 

As for the vaccine, there's no magic number of the amount of time to develop it that guarantees a vaccine's safety. If they have a working vaccine that doesn't actively kill people by next March, that's way better than nothing. 

 

Social distancing and masking are fine, but I don't think they're going to work all by themselves at an event like World's. 

 

[SitTwizzle]

5 hours ago, rockstaryuzu said:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE

 

You can see that the infection rate in Sweden continues to climb. 

 

As for the vaccine, there's no magic number of the amount of time to develop it that guarantees a vaccine's safety. If they have a working vaccine that doesn't actively kill people by next March, that's way better than nothing. 

 

Social distancing and masking are fine, but I don't think they're going to work all by themselves at an event like World's. 

 

I don't see it at all in these graphs.
The number of people tested positive is growing because, as you see, last month at last they endeavoured to test massively. Comparatively, UK and US did start testing early in the epidemic but what they lack is medical response : I won't start upon US medical system because it would become political, but as to UK, the NHS is in a pitiable state, both on the GP level (three weeks to get an appointment, ten minutes consultation, a paracetamol prescription whatever the trouble, is hardly a caricature) as on the hospital level, with a general mess (all the response from the heads of the NHS to budget cuts is to fire nurses and to recruit highly-paid executives in large numbers; plus the way the "localisation" was handled).

And I don't see Sweden in the graph of number of positive vs. number of tested, but it is not that precise : when you see France in the average, it really is a cheating, because we sooo undertested during the explosion and the pike, hiding its size, while many people proposed solutions for massive testing (300.000 tests per week for cheap, first offered in February unofficially, then officially mid-March in an open letter by lack of previous answer, a governmental promise three weeks later but to no avail except one very eloquent day of testing by misunderstanding from the proposers; only in late April, with numbers dwindling while their narrative was terrifying the population, they started two to three weeks of massive testing, 700.000 per week, to no avail because the epidemics was to its end; so they changed their narrative to pretend they "had won" against the infection, even suppressing retroactively a good number of the victims and of the infected from official numbers, and stopped testing while we still need it; and so, as a whole, we have a good cases/tests ratio but the reality is totally different).

But for Sweden, while not fighting enough, they were always honest (I repeat : I have no idea of the political colour of their government, or its attitude on other issues, I am just speaking of what I can see about the epidemic) and were among the few who counted their CoViD-deaths with accuracy, leading people to believe they had had more deaths than some others who were less honest/accurate (mostly Spain, France and Netherlands; once again, I have no idea of who is governing Netherlands, and I have second-hand relation about Spain which make me think they were rather overwhelmed at a moment than lying).

And you can see the graph of excessive death rate :

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

They are still at the limit of an excess, because 1) they seem to have effectively protected the weaker, unlike France for instance who did the opposite and have now a "too low death rate"; 2) there are still some deaths from CoViD but with effectual census and more tests, it is weaning.

 

Spoiler

 

As to the vaccine, we would need decades of much more efficient feedback to know the direct effects of course, but specifically for coronavirus vaccination, on MERS and on SARS-CoV 1 tested vaccines, a risk have been observed of potentially lethal immune reactions when in contact with the real virus, so I would say, no way for me unless properly tested on really knowing and willing people.

I think further arguments may be better, not even in the CoViD thread, but by private mail if you want.

 

 

Edit : thank you for having moved this part of the discussion to where it belonged!

[TallyT]

The US has had 150,000 new cases reported in the last three days and Russia 18,000. And those two countries are major Feds, so have to be under control before any international competitions can go ahead, even with all the precautions under the sun. from what I have read, her immunity is not going to cut it the way it does with other illnesses as people can get the virus more than once.

 

Our own country - one of the lucky lucky luckiest in the world, our total figures are less than most individual US states - has just learned this past week how fragile the feeling of 'over the worst' is, with hotspots and spikes in Victoria. I am missing Yuzu and my other favourites like anything, but the risk of contributing to a second wave... no sport, no art, no music, no recreational activity at all - is worth innocent lives.

[Lunna]

9 часов назад, TallyT сказал:

The US has had 150,000 new cases reported in the last three days and Russia 18,000.

Government says that a big part of positive tests are asymptomatic and official numbers are lowering every day, though I can't say how much I trust our statistic as not everybody with symptoms are tested still. I only can say that mostly everything is opened here (in Moscow at least), 10% of stadium capacity are allowed to local football matches, soon cinemas will reopen, then theaters closer to September. I don't know what will happen in the Autumn, but I hardly believe there will be second lockdown purely for the economic reasons first.

[rockstaryuzu]

On 7/4/2020 at 7:34 PM, TallyT said:

The US has had 150,000 new cases reported in the last three days and Russia 18,000. And those two countries are major Feds, so have to be under control before any international competitions can go ahead, even with all the precautions under the sun.

I agree. 

 

I notice the UK rather conspicuously left Sweden off its list of 'green light' countries that Britons can now travel to without needing to quarantine when they come back. (Also Canada, Russia, and the US, the latter two for obvious reasons, Canada not so much) So the UK also has qualms about Sweden. 

 

I'm altogether unhappy about opening up from lockdown so soon. Today is the first full day back for all the staff at my hospital, and there are many too many people here, I tell you.  To think that four months ago this level of people around was normal...There isn't even that many here yet, it just feels skin-crawly having more people around. We're all masked, but still. 

 

[Paskud]

At this rate Zuzu will at JNats.

[Lunna]

1 час назад, rockstaryuzu сказал:

Also Canada, Russia, and the US, the latter two for obvious reasons, Canada not so much

The reason might be that Canada's boarder stays locked down, some countries want double sided relationship. As far as I've read Russia will think of reopening boarders for those who will open open boarders for us too (apart from statistic numbers). I totally understand why boarders stay closed for Russia, I only hope situation will be better by Autumn, though Autumn is flue season, so who knows where those numbers will go.

[SitTwizzle]

I had noted, but maybe not written here, that a French radiology clinic (in Mulhouse, an early "hot spot") had had the good idea of checking its stock of lung radios from last year, as the SARS-CoV 2 often make rather typical lung lesions, rarely found otherwise. They found one case in October (which could be from another cause after all), around ten in November, and dozens in December.

In Barcelona (Spain) they have found some cases as early as March 2019, and it seems there are other places.

That is, the virus has been around some time already, endemic, has exploded as an epidemic at different moments in different countries, and should go back to endemic (as it seems to have done in some countries) as others diseases did.

[rockstaryuzu]

2 hours ago, Paskud said:

At this rate Zuzu will at JNats.

Terrifying thought. 

[sweetwater]

3 hours ago, Paskud said:

At this rate Zuzu will at JNats.

It depends on whether domestic travel will be allowed in Japan in December.

[river]

2 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

I had noted, but maybe not written here, that a French radiology clinic (in Mulhouse, an early "hot spot") had had the good idea of checking its stock of lung radios from last year, as the SARS-CoV 2 often make rather typical lung lesions, rarely found otherwise. They found one case in October (which could be from another cause after all), around ten in November, and dozens in December.

In Barcelona (Spain) they have found some cases as early as March 2019, and it seems there are other places.

That is, the virus has been around some time already, endemic, has exploded as an epidemic at different moments in different countries, and should go back to endemic (as it seems to have done in some countries) as others diseases did.

The most recent article I can find only shows an 88% positive predictive value for chest X-ray for COVID-19. I suspect all of those cases prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in China are false positives. It’s much more plausible that this is a recent disease that spread. Endemic diseases don’t suddenly flare up out of nowhere like COVID-19 has.