General Yuzuru Chat

[Geo1]

5 minutes ago, yuzuangel said:

Wouldn't read too much into it. They're literally just fishing for clicks by being as pot stirring as possible.

 

I agree with this. TSL, like Johnny and Tara, shamelessly change their opinions as often as most people change their underwear.

[Lanvin]

ngl I need to stop hate watching I'm giving them too many clicks, but it is funny how inconsistent they are on opinions about everything from one comp to the next. they'll say Nathan has it locked up again after us nats.

[YuzuBoy]

10 minutes ago, Geo1 said:

 

I agree with this. TSL, like Johnny and Tara, shamelessly change their opinions as often as most people change their underwear.

Johnny and Tara...My ears bleed when I hear their commentary. I am happy enough to have Eurosport.

[CiONTUw4A]

Has this been shared? 

 

 

[yuzuangel]

30 minutes ago, CiONTUw4A said:

Has this been shared? 

 

 

is this the only recorded 2A he has ever jumped since juniors??!?!?

[gapil27]

Gosh I really admire this boy’s confidence. He’s all like I’m going to the Olympic now, might as well win it while I’m at it. Other people would be bashful and said I will try my best, I hope I can do the country proud but not Yuzu. So very driven and ambitious. And he’s not afraid to show it. 

[makebelieveup]

6 hours ago, yuzuangel said:

A slight aside: does anyone feel like judges become slightly more reasonable during olympic seasons (or, to put it differently, they're less willing to score one single skater to the moon)...because they want to create a bit more tension/drama?

 

This doesn't seem to be happening with Valieva, maybe because no one has been touching her in terms of quads + consistency. Last time they really drummed up Alina's score to match Zhenya's and didn't crazily overscore Zhenya (so much so that Alina actually won)...despite giving Zhenya a 160+ PB the season before. And of course the same happened with Patrick and Yuzu in 2014. If you skate well at the Olys you could get a huge personal best even if you've never had a record of it (a la Sotnikova) whereas if you're used to get extremely overscored, suddenly judges can...just score you fairly.

 

Hmm, just throwing that out there....

I wonder if lets say Nathan bombs at beijing and Vincent stays on his feet, will he be a second sotnikova? 20-30 pt inflation incoming.

 

my mentality approaching this game is "expect the worst, prepare for the best"

[Dreamer]

Olympic judges will be under scrutiny for their judging... The world and international media will be watching Yuzuru's opportunity to three peat as 3-time Olympic champion.  I read somewhere... Don't know whether it is true, that Chinese Olympic officials and IOC came to  Japan Nationals to watch.  Beijing is invested in a successful Olympics... What better way than to secure Yuzu's participation? So maybe,there was pressure to score him more reasonably. 

[CiONTUw4A]

 

 

This post has been tagged by yuzuangel as [NEWS].

[toesocks]

39 minutes ago, CiONTUw4A said:

 

 

oh yuzu please take care of yourself 

[Paskud]

44 minutes ago, CiONTUw4A said:

 

 

Someone here definitely deserves a weekend in onsen.

[Umebachi]

11 hours ago, shanshani said:

I disagree. I don't think Yuzu needs 5 quads to win. Nathan's jumps actually haven't been scored as generously this season, and even if the judges get a little bit more generous as long as they don't go to 2019 GPF levels Yuzu can win over Nathan even if Nathan does 1 more quad, especially if Yuzu upgrades 3A2T to 3A3Lo. See:

 

Assuming everything is landed squeaky clean, let's do an estimate of his score. Unfortunately Yuzu has only had one competition this season and it was nationals, so it's a bit hard to tell how international judges might score him, but if we look at his Nats scores, we see that:

 

Average PCS (both programs)	9.74
Average GOE (jumps, excl. 4A<<)	4.07
Average GOE (spins)	4.20
Average GOE (steps/choreo seq)	4.96

 

This is probably a tad generous compared to international judges, so let's suppose that Yuzu gets 4 GOE per element and 9.7 per component. (Note that he could also have executed the 4T3T combos and the 3A in the SP better, and the 4A<< probably cost him a couple of points of PCS). That would give him the following scores depending on his layout:

 

	3A2T & 3Lo	3A3Lo & 3F
4Lo	330.12	333.72
4A	332.92	337.08

 

Now let's look at Nathan. Nathan has been to two international competitions this season, but Skate America was a bit of a disaster for him so let's exclude that.

 

Looking at his Skate Canada scores:

Average PCS	9.28
Average GOE (jumps, excluding -GOE and one wonky 4Lz)	2.69
Average GOE (spins)	3.17
Average GOE (steps/choreo)	4.22

 

I rather generously excluded a 4Lz that got lower GOE due to axis/landing problems but still had positive GOE, which I didn't do for Yuzu's slightly flawed jumps. Even then, we can see that Nathan's average jump GOE was actually surprisingly reasonable that competition, given how stiff/unaesthetic his jump landings are, their lack of size, etc. I don't know if the judges have finally seen the light, or if they just didn't want him at Skate Canada any more because they want Yuzu and the $$$ his audience brings back, but let's not trust the judges too much. If we look at World's last season, his average jump GOE there was 2.95 (excluding fall), so lets round that up to 3. He also got 96 PCS in the FS for some ridiculous reason. 

 

So using 3 for GOEs for jumps and spins and 4 for steps/choreo (why), and 9.5 average components, we get these scores depending on Nathan's layout:

	4Lz 4T3T SP	4Lz 4F3T SP
5 Quad FS	330.09	332.19
6 Quad FS	336.07	338.17

 

So if Yuzu keeps the Nats layout and manages to land the 4A nicely, then he can beat a 5 quad Nathan under these scoring conditions, although the margins are very narrow so in reality it may be a tossup. If he also upgrades to 3A3Lo, then he can a cinch a more definitive win over 5 quad Nathan (honestly upgrading 3A2T to 3A3Lo is actually more valuable than upgrading the 4Lo to 4A, but Yuzu is Yuzu) and is competitive with even 6 quad Nathan (who, mind you, has to land 4Lo). Note that even if Yuzu doesn't manage the 4A, if he switches back to 4Lo or 4Lz but does upgrade 3A2T to 3A3Lo he can still win over 5 quad Nathan.

 

Overall, I feel like my scoring assumptions here were also fairly generous to Nathan--certainly much more generous than he deserves. 9.5 components, seriously? So if the judging is just a bit more reasonable, Yuzu can get a more clear-cut victory. Of course, if judges decide they're blind and want to screw over Yuzu instead then all of this is out the window. But there's not a whole lot Yuzu can do in that case.

 

Overall, I think it's more important that Yuzu skates clean and gets high GOEs on every element, because that's where the points he needs to make up any BV difference with Nathan comes from. If he starts having bad landings because he runs out of stamina due to 5 quads, that ultimately is going to cost him more in GOE and PCS than the extra quad helps.

 

I also think that there's a huge psychological component to judging that can't be captured by mathematical analysis, and that's actually the chief edge the 4A provides. The amount of points you're technically supposed to gain from landing 4A is ridiculously small compared to the jump's difficulty, but judges judge based on feelings, and landing 4A is really, really impressive. I think the impressiveness of achievements is part of why judges inflate Nathan's PCS so much (though obviously not the only reason)--landing 5 quads is impressive, and that feeling of being impressed is actually one of the biggest contributing factors to how they score PCS. So therefore, it's likely that landing 4A will be more valuable point-wise than it appears to be just based on the rulebook.

 

Edit: Lol in the time it took me to write this essay there have been like 2 new pages of posts. 

 

Thank you for doing the calculations.  I am sure Yuzu is doing the same.  I am hoping he will introduce 3A3Lo then 3F not only because of the point advantage but also because it will be insanely beautiful and mind-blowing.  Just at that point, the choreography calls for the majestic whirling motion of waves (or wind), representing the intensity of the physical battle (at Kawanakajima) and the emotional/spiritual struggle Kenshin experiences in the midst of the battle.   It would also beautifully flow from the opening 4A which throws us into the midst of the battle.  I can see Kenshin wielding the sword and shield on his white steed in the first opening steps.  I like the 2021 version of the opening move, as I find them to be more evocative of a real battle scene, where Kenshin is in the midst of parrying and pulling away momentarily to prepare for the frontal attack using 4A as the weapon of choice.  In fact, Yuzu uses the term 武器　(buki) several times to refer to 4A.  This term literally means "instrument of war".   

 

In the end, Uesugi Kenshin passed away before making any conquests beyond his family territories. But he is immortalized and remembered as one of the greatest warriors of the period, with deep philosophical and spiritual turn (the duality of man) that makes his story so unique and inspirational. You don't have to be a Shogun like Oda Nobunaga or Toyotomi Hideyoshi to become a hero, and Kenshin would certainly be my kind of a hero! 

 

Go Yuzu! May the spirit of Lord Kenshin be with you!!

 

 

 

[Umebachi]

2 hours ago, gapil27 said:

Gosh I really admire this boy’s confidence. He’s all like I’m going to the Olympic now, might as well win it while I’m at it. Other people would be bashful and said I will try my best, I hope I can do the country proud but not Yuzu. So very driven and ambitious. And he’s not afraid to show it. 

 

It's not that he is so confident about this (almost brash), but rather he has learned to articulate these thoughts and expectations into concrete words and put them out in public to make it stick.  Through these publicly stated commitments, he motivates himself and stimulates his psyche to create a mindset toward achieving the goal.  Otherwise he would have been crushed by all the pressure and negative thoughts.  He has spoken many times about having experienced deep depression and dark thoughts, and that he is only able to keep going by feeding into the positive energy generated by his fans and supporters.  And he can only do that by reaching out and making a sacred compact with the fans: that he will aim high and reach for the stars, and does so with gratitude and deep respect. 

 

He himself has said that making these pronouncements publicly helps him to organize his thoughts, and that he actually goes back and reviews all these interviews to analyze his own psychological state.  He is a student of human psychology and an intellectual boy.  

[Lynn487]

I just want to say thank you to all the uploaders who have brought Yuzu's performances, as well as the whole competition/gala, on here for us to go back and watch. Thank you very much!

 

[holina]

Why is he so cute 🥺