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fireovertheice

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  1. Waiting for GPF, and also for the complete translation (usually and generously done by @Lys), here other tidbits for thoughts from Ambesi&Dolfini pocast https://www.spreaker.com/user/talk-sport/puntata-9:

     

    To note: the following is not a literal translation but my summary of some points of the podcast (you can find the indication of the exact timing to check), also if I tried to stick to the original words and concepts expressed in Italian for the more interesting and "sensible" parts.

     

    1) Dolfini said (73.25 mins) that the program of Nathan Chen (meaning mostly the FS) is in the moment of the greatest technique expansion ("massima espansione tecnica") and thus the program is emptier by definition ("più vuoto per definizione") in comparison to those of the ladies - or other men - with similiar PCS scores, i.e. around 87/88 pts.

    Plus Ambesi and Dolfini both recall the fact the Nathan FS seems to be still having an open layout, with major liberty to change the transitions and the pattern in the set ups for the different jumps, so it's obvious that the program is poorer/ simplier in terms of TR. In doing so the strategy for this program of Nathan Chen seems to renounce deliberately to follow the rules to obtain major/maximum scores in PCS, in favor of a stellar score in TES.

    So they criticize North American analysts (Wong) complaining that 87 PCS for Chen's FS was a low score. For Ambesi and Dolfini clearly 87 for that program and performance was way too high.

     

    2) They speak about the eccessive levelling in the high scores for the top men because of the correlation between TES and PCS scores (from. 75.16): following Dolfini the latter (relation TES/PCS scores) is always been so in FS, also if under COP it should be not. Now, if certain athletes land difficult quads and have high TES , they tend to get automatically  high scores in all the PCS. For Dolfini this leads to the debate they had also in other occasions about the necessity of change in the coefficient between TES and PCS, with the raise of the latter.

    Ambesi stress that in the meantime the price for that is paid by the whole package athletes, as Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan as well as by other very good skaters in all the PCS that are not landing quads, such as Brown and Rippon. Brown is also faster than Chen, following Ambesi. Thus for Ambesi the problem seems to insist also the judges evaluation and in the application of the current rules.

    So, Dolfini concludes that the best would be to have both: change the coefficient and correct the evaluation of PCS, also if the latter is not so easy in the short time available to the judges.

     

    3) Lastly, they again stress out the necessity of a major differentiation among the scores of the five PCS, that could reflect better the characteristics of the single skaters but also their actual performance (minute 80.50 on). In the way its used now the new scoring system loss its meaning.

     

    In consideration of all these factors and in how the system works/is applied now (also with the excessive BV given to the 4Lz in comparison to other difficult quads), Chen with his strategy, just IF he lands all his planned jumps without falling in the FS (6quads with 2 Lz, one in combo and another in the 2nd half, and Flip), also with a far more than perfect skate (with PCS in the range of 88-90), is the favorite to win, beating also the best Hanyu and on the contrary to what Plushenko said.

     

    P.S. I like the fact that Ambesi then said that if Nathan lands all those jumps planned without falling, one has to bow to him and he should pass as the greatest jumper in the history of FS (I think that is clear who is the GOAT figure skater in his mind...)

     

  2. Did you hear that Franca Bianconi (ITA) will be the TS for the Ladies? https://twitter.com/stefionice/status/935896494456090624

     

    I think that most of you know her because she is the coach of some single ladies, like Roberta Rodeighiero, and of Marchei/Hotarek too. More is one of the two ladies commentators of RAIsport (the two who says tipically "Mamma mia!" after the performance of Yuzuru).

    These are the comps she took part as Specialist or Assistant in the Technical Panel: http://www.rinkresults.com/judge?judge_id=454

    We will see what she will do...

  3. Well, I have looked to the performance of the men and I agree with the majority of your comments.

     

    Just to add some salt about Ms. Martinez and PCS given to Nathan, that I was expecting also higher in the end (but luckily still the highest and the lowest scores are not counted).

    I think that this is a brilliant program coreographed by Shae Lynn (best coreographer of the last couple of season to me) and performed well by Nathan, but everyone with eyes - or almost - can agree this performance is nowhere near those 10s, not to mention 9.75 in SS and TR...

    However, there is no surprise that Ms. Sasha Martinez Mendoza was invited by USFSA at this comp, and not only for her scores at 4CC last year. She seems to be a regular at U.S. International Figure Skating Classics from 2013 and in some of the U.S. Challenge skates for junior and novice level (all comps held at Salt Lake City, the hometown of Nathan: http://www.rinkresults.com/judge?judge_id=247) ).

    And also this play of underscores / overscores in a so blatant and excessive way: really this makes no good to the sport and to the athletes.
    I hope that the panel will have an honest discussion/review after this segment of competition and that we will see more balanced scores in FS also for single judging. Luckly the highest and lowest scores are not to be taken in consideration, but yet is frustrating to read protocols like that (but also some missed calls from the technical panel...).

    Really: there is no way that ISU will do something about that before/ for Olympics?

     

    Edit: I just discovered that our Ms. Martinez was judge also at JPF 2013 in Mexico, where Nathan won the title: there she was overscoring him but not that much. Anyway they have a long story "together"...

     

  4. Frankly I say so, not only for the issues Patrick showed in the first part of this season (but also in the second part of the last one, in a certain degree), but because this season it will be the FS to make the difference and mostly for the TES. It's because of this that Yuzuru introduced the 4Lz and backloaded a little bit both his programs.

    The SP will be important to stay in the first positions and not losing to much/gaining something, and for order of skating the FS. But with the actual  jumps layout of Chan (i.e. without a 4S in the FS), I doubt that he really could win. For Javi is different because he have something more to play in TES with in case of bad skates of the others in the FS, as in part we have seen at IdF.

     

    And also if for the SP he is capable to go around 100 or little more with a single quad, he never had the cushion that Yuzu or Javi could have with a clean skate and two quads. And I think that a clean skate in the SP is more reachable for everyone of the top men with min difference: in fact for now almost all have topped the 100s (Uno - a couple of times - Fernandez, Chen  and Yuzu).

    More: last season Chan had a clean SP only at GPF scoring 99.76, and at WC, where he gained a 102.13 score; and this at WC is the same layout he presented at the only competition of this season. In Helsinki he had already good GOEs: 2.43 for the combo, 2.00 for the 3Lz and 2.00 for the 3A (that rarely he lands clean...). And he earned excellent PCS, for a total of 48.02. Also being generous and giving him all +3 on jumps, and a couple of points more on spins and one point (I think the max) in PCS, he can be scored max around 107/108. Without  a second quad he will not score much more than that.

    At the last WC in the FS he scored 193 and something because he had the 4S, but still was not enough because the others were clean or just cleanish and the cushion from the SP not so high.

     

    So, if he want be really competitive: 1) he have to introduce a second quad in the FS and better a second quad in the SP; 2) then he has to be foot perfect in both segments of the competition ; 3) he has to hope that Yuzuru, Javier, Shoma and Nathan had not good skates at least in one of the segments, better the FS.

    For these reasons at the moment his win seems not so easy and probable, also if I agree with you that is not impossible at all. As I said, it depends on what he will shows at Nats, in terms of layouts/TES as well as of psycological and phisical form.

  5. Quote

    @micaelis wrote: My current run-down of major threats to Yuzu at the Winter Games is Shoma still the biggest, with Javi now back in conention after his disaster in China, Boyang needs to his PCS up significantly or hope his quads pull maximum GOEs.  We'll find out about Nathan this week at Skate America.  Patrick Chan?  I'm afraid he's by and large yesterday's news.

     

    At the moment - unless major meltdowns in the next competitions or injuries (i hope not) - the major threats for Yuzuru's gold at OGM are Nathan and Shoma. I think that Javier and Mikhail could be a threat for the other podium positions and I think that honestly this is also their realistic goal, unless disastrous skate from the others (for Javier Brian said: a medal of any color...).

    For Boyang we will see better in this weekend. I doubt also very much that Chan will be a podium contender...it depends on what he will be able to produce from Nationals on.

  6. At the moment they are trying so hard to prop Nathan up: almost two articles a day...some of them with a sort of bombastic title (such as: "Chen marches toward Olympics...", "More than spins and jumps" over a photo of Chen with ballet shoes, "Nichol takes Chen through artistic rite of passage", and "Utah native Nathan Chen is changing figure skating, and his next stop is the Winter Olympics").

    I expect his PCS will rise at this comp, hoping not in an unrealistic way.

     

    And: I didn't know that Chen had these strong sponsor: listed for now Coca Cola, Nike, Kellogs, Bridgestone and United Airlines. I imagine that this will produce strong pressure to deliver at OGM...

  7. Quote

    And @yuzuangel, thanks for the interesting charts! Amazing how clearly Ms. Azuma from CoR left her mark   That amazing Judge who gave Nathan a higher TR score then Yuzuru in the LP (9.5 to 9.25)

     

    Yes, she did a wonderful job indeed :facepalm:!

    Pratically she was playing the second American among the judges: not only she gave higher mark than Yuzuru to Chen in TR, but also in PE :O; her scores and those of the USA judge are the only all in green, i.e. above the medium score obtained by Chen.

    More: she gave sometimes better GOE to Chen than the USA judge (4F, 4T+combo, 3A, 3A+combo), while in scoring Yuzu she was more or less in the average with the exception of the 4T+3T: http://skatingscores.com/2018/gprus/men/long/

     

    About her scores at CoR 2017 see also this ironic - and informative - blog entry: https://fuckyeahdearlybeloved.tumblr.com/post/166667788816/one-of-the-judges-j3-gave-nathan-025-more-in

     

    Maybe this was the result of an hypercorrectness, a sort of way to show that she wasn't biased towards Nathan or other "rivals" of Yuzu, but in doing so at the end she damaged Yuzuru, because actually she made count the scores of the USA judge (in the case of Chen) and of the Russian and Uzbekistan judge (in the cases of Kolyada, Ge and Kvitelashvili). And if you look at her scores in FS, all her marks are above average (again in green) for each component and for each skater up to the sixth classified skater, with the only exception in CO for Yuzuru.

     

    @yuzuangel, thank you for your amazing and interesting work: I am using that site too and looking at your charts some phenomena are more evident (sadly ...).

    It is also true that sometimes is very difficult to find informations about the judges background. Mostly you can find only the other competitions they were attending.

     

     

  8. These two videos are always useful to explain in the essence the "footwork" in the transitions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhGY4aI7yzM&pbjreload=

    and the old "intricacy" (now the continuity etc...: this is an aspect of which Yuna Kim and Yuzuru are the best example): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnXGtSK9hCw that can be considered as opposit to a long preparation to and the telegraphing jumps/elements.

     

    In the videos is nice to see also part of the performances of Chan, Kim, Asada, Buttle and an explosive Orser :) (videos are from a DVD released ante 2012).

     

    Interesting also the examples (not responding to actual standard and scoring, I would say):

    average/above av. TR (ex. Jonny Weir): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6grQEfEEZ8

    good TR (ex. Jeffry Buttle): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdSXZr0dsl8&t

    very good TR (ex. Patrick Chan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYEVxjfy_IA

     

  9. @Xen as far as i know crossovers are considered transitions in the literal meaning of the term in FS, and they are considered under the category of "footwork > steps"; these are considered the among easy TRs, while the "footwork > turns" are the more difficult ones.

    Then there are also the "skating movements" such as SE, IB, lunge, arabesque, HB etc... and the "non-listed elements" such as FL, SJ, walleys and so forth, plus the "body movements"

    I think that this document here is very useful in this sense: http://www.skatinginbc.com/sites/default/files/technical-updates/transition_summary.pdf

     

    We have to pay attention to old criterion of "intricacy" that is now changed in "continuity of movements from one element to another", I suspect because the prior definition was misleading.

    In fact, also before for intricacy was intended the presence of "series of different transitional tools linking into each other and immediately into and out of listed technical elements". So, if you look at the rulebook that you have linked, I think that also now for "intricate footwork" written in the general description, is intended the "continuity of movements from one element to another" listed after, combined with "variety" and "difficulty".

     

    However to me it's true all this you wrote (but maybe not for some judges...?):

    Quote

    It makes sense to "count" them for this simple reason: if you have lots of crossover, then there cannot be lots of (....), variety and difficulty because there is literally not much spare time in the program to execute everything. Hence the quality of crossover shouldn't really matter in TR score  imo, but the quantity should. While for SS both quantity and quality matter. Again, if there is huge speed with only few basic steps, and everything else is on par (rythmic knee action, flow and so on) than the skater is displaying better skating skills, as a matter of fact.

     

    To me it depends really if the number of crossovers is in the average to consent variety and/or difficulty of TR or not: if among the top skaters the average of crossovers/crossunders is around 30-34, those skaters who use more than 40-42 crossovers (plus 20-30%) or more than 50-52 (plus 45-50%) than the others, are using less difficult TR in the first case, and surely also less varied TR in the second.

     

    In conclusion: also if we want to take in account crossovers for high scores in TR for the aspects of "continuity of movements" and "quality" (but only IF they are QUALITY crossovers" :biggrin:), a big or a huge number of crossovers should counted in negative way for the scores in TR regarding the aspects of "variety" and "difficulty".

    In this sense to count them, such as to count and to verify the difficulty of the other transitions too, should be done and to have an impact scoring TR. For this I began also to count at least the "skating movements" and the time of their hold, for example.

     

    An I agree also with this part:

    Quote

    The upper body movements executed while feet are busy doing crossovers do count for the TR mark, but again, doing arm movements while doing easy steps is easier than doing them while you have to focus also on what the hell your feet are doing, because intricate footwork is more tiring per se, and it challenges more the skater's equilibrium and focus etc etc, so beautiful movements in a program with lots of crossovers shouldn't be awarded as much as beautiful movements on intricate footwork.

     

    Maybe the most part of the judges is still working having in mind the 6.0 system, but athlets, technicians and fans are not. I think that we have the tools now and the way to let them know that we are all understanding, observing and following closely what they are doing, also if someone want to convince us that because is a "judged system" there is no way to find more objective way to score some parts of it.

    Sorry for the final rant :embSwan:

  10. 4 minutes ago, LadyLou said:

    @fireovertheice thank you for your hard work. I'll take my time with your table and post again later:smile:

    btw can I suggest to also add the SS and TR scores, given how more closely related those two components are to the listed content? (I know usually pcs are all in the same range, but I think it would still be more accurate :tumblr_inline_n18qraikFP1qid2nw:)

     

    Yes you are absolutely right: I was thinking now (and I have already done for some skaters) what you have just suggested :thanks:

  11. Hi :) For whom it may concern, I updated the table about numbers of (quality) crossovers, one-footskating etc. with this data:

     

    - values and numbers for Javier Fernandez FS on the basis of his performance at IdF (program packed with transitions, with number of crossovers and turns on one foot similar to Yuzu's ones, but with the major part of one-foot skating time concentrated in the STSq and ChSq; among the two-feet TR non listed there: 1 SE, 1 IB hold 1.5 sec, 2 lunges)

     

    - jumps layout at the competition taken in consideration (indicated with* the jumps surely intended/tempted)

     

    - PCS scores at the competition taken in consideration

     

    https://planethanyu.com/topic/44-general-skating-chat/?do=findComment&comment=115065

     

    I am interested in your considerations or observations... :peekapooh:thanks in advance.

     

     

  12. 2 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

    I have to wonder a bit how does Max know what Yuzu feels/felt... As far as I know, Yuzu doesn't really do interviews not in Japanese - or does them very rarely - and if that's insider info, it seems a bit rude to reveal it like this, when Yuzu himself has never spoken about it (and wouldn't, because it'd go against his usual style).

     

    I have to say - and my bad if I made not clear enough - that Ambesi and Dofini are speaking their opinions about all this (but I wrote clearly: "following him", meaning Ambesi...and so forth), not pretending to know for sure what Yuzuru is thinking. The only thing that they seemed to know was about the presence of 4Lz in the programs of this year and in what he was training. But frankly, looking at the second part of last season, for the experts or in general for persons who follow constantly the discipline and Yuzu, It wasn't difficult to say that.

     

    Quote

    That said, I'm pretty sure he is aware of the scoring issues. He's the type who sees a bigger picture than everyone else. So I'm sure he has taken that into consideration. But I also don't think he's the type to agonize over it. He acknowledges it and searches for ways to conquer it.

    On top of that, I doubt he would not have been tempted by 4Lz anyway. He wants all quads. Would he have taken the risk this season? Who knows. But he is not being forced to add it. He wants it and this gives him a good reason to add it.

     

    They don't said that Yuzuru was agonizing about that, but just what you have said. Because "He acknowledges it and searches for ways to conquer it", in the current situation he has to do two things; raising TES but at the same time trying to be clean as much as possibile. From here the new 4Lz, a little backloading in the second half of the programs and the revisitation of the old programs. He is not leaving back anything that could be possible let him down after.

     

    Ambesi is saying that Yuzuru would add the 4Lz before Nathan and Shoma landed them (just right after Boyang did it). But I think that is probably true that if the 4Lo, GOE and PCS would be enough for a sure win, he would have not risked to train a new jump in the short season of OGM, IMO.

  13. 3 hours ago, Yatagarasu said:

     

    4T-3T, I am pretty sure, though @fireovertheice can check in with us please. But we have a 4T-3T video, and I am almost positive that no, he has never tried that one.

     

    Thank you skating gods and all because hips, hips. Owww. *crosses legs*

     

    Sorry, @yatagarasu is absolutely right: Ambesi said 4T-3T (my bad in doing the transcription I left behind the Toe- and is quite different).

    You can hear it clearly at 5.40-5.41

  14. About what Yuzuru could be thinking about 4Lz and the fact that training it can be dangerous for his health or not, and also about what he was training in practice at NHK, I listened again the last podcast of Ambesi and Dolfini (the 7th, minutes around 5.00-6.50): https://www.spreaker.com/user/talk-sport/puntata-7

     

    Following Ambesi, as we know, the day before practice Yuzuru had high fever (around 39°); at the only practice he attended, Yuzuru realised soon that's something was off:  after warming up Yuzu tried the combination 4T-3T, landed, but he began to shake his head (in negative way), probably because he felt that the effects of the flu were still there; then he tried another jump, that he opened, after which he tried to jump the 4Lz. This jump, in his intentions, should be the opening jump of the short program, because the layout has been trained with the Lutz for first jump. That  day this jump had not enough height/parabola, but he didn't open as usual, in order to complete the rotation instead. He did it, without having enough space to land properly and leading to the injury.

     

    When Ambesi asked to Dolfini, what are the effects of the flu and high fever on skating and more on jumps (6.52-6.57), Dolfini answered that in this condition skaters lack the energy and coordination to do such difficult jumps (the quadruples), the lack of right balance and also problems in the legs, that can result heavier than usual (around 7.00-10.00 minutes of the podcast). We are seeing maybe the effects of the flu also on Shoma after more than a week from his recovery: http://shoma-uno.tumblr.com/post/167602841157/shoma-after-the-short-program-november-17th.

     

    The conclusion of Ambesi and Dolfini after all this saying, is that the problem was the condition after the flu for jumping quadruples, and not the 4Lz in particular. However, the fact that the injury arrived after a bad landing of the 4Lz, could have some psychological back effects.

    I cannot imagine the condition of Yuzu that day and I am a little bit angry at him and at his strong will to compete at NHK under those conditions, also If, from some points of view, I can understand him.

     

    Then (around 15.00-17.00 minutes of the podcast) Ambesi said that following him, and knowing Yuzuru, is not thinkable that he would skate at the OGM without 4Lz. He said also that Yuzu trained and added the 4Lz in his layout because last season he probably felt that he was not scored well/properly in comparison to others  (litterally: "non si è sentito verosimilmemte premiato fino in fondo in termini di valutazioni ottenute") and to be "sure" to win he realised he needed the 4th quadruple.

    It will be very difficult now to turn back from this acknowledgement, also because this situation (the jumps layout and the GOE/PCS scores of some others, mostly Shoma and Nathan) it has been confirmed by the first competitions of this season. Then he and Dolfini speak about the correct scoring of PCS and the problem of their levelling among the top skaters: this is one of the factor pushing Yuzu and others for a more difficult layout.

     

    * I edited the part about the combination trained, that as Yatagarasu stated was 4T-3T, and I stressed the parts where I wrote that Ambesi and Dolfini are expressing their opinions on the basis of what they know. It was clear to me that they were not speaking for Yuzuru, and I am sorry if my  part of translation, part resume gave you other ideas. I hope that soon you will find the complete translation of the podcast so that you can check better.

  15. It seems that Shoma had not serious problem at his ankle, but anyway - and it was clear - he wasn't at the top of the form: http://shoma-uno.tumblr.com/post/167602841157/shoma-after-the-short-program-november-17th

     

    When I read that, I thought again at what Dolfini said about the consequences of high fever on the body of skaters, mostly the legs and in general the balance, so that jumos are really hard (last pdcast with Max Ambesi when they were speaking about Yuzuru WD).

    If Shoma is not in good shape after more than a week after recovering from high fever, I cannot imagine the conditions under which Yuzuru attented the practice at NHK ...that stubborn boy.

  16. @kaerb frankly all this is just speculation among us without knowing actually what is his condition, how is going the healing process and how resuming training will procede in the next weeks. We all hope that he will be able to compete at Nationals (knock on wood !), but if, in the unfortunate case, he will not be able, OGM would be just the third competition this season (fourth if we consider the Team event for the short) and a YOLO for any variation of the layout.

  17. 9 minutes ago, Joey said:

     

    I'm like.... not surprised. At all :laughing:

     

    For now, I have no idea what to think about the SP 4Lz though. If he'd stick to that idea or not, given the injury set back. If he's in 100% form for nats, I wouldn't put it past him, but it's veeeery difficult to imagine right now :omg:

     

    I don't think at Nationals ...but later i.e. at OGM... who knows. It depends also what his main competitors wil be doing in the next month (because Yuzuru love to compete with himself, but he is fired up by the competition with the others :biggrin:)

  18. Yes, I confirm that Max stated clearly that Yuzu was doing so in practice. Anyway it will be 4Lz if health will consent, or the "old" 4Lo; I don't think the 4S, like ad ACI.

    I think that Yuzu made a good choice in training the Loop and now the Lutz and I am sure that he and his team will do the best in the current and future situation.

    In fact, he has to maximize points also in the SP because the others (escpecially Patrick and Shoma, and for SP also Chan) are too close in GOE and PCS.

     

    I made this chart with the SP PCS from the beginnig of the last season until now: http://i64.tinypic.com/21dn1pi.jpg

    (there isn't a way to show an image directly into the post? I didn't find it...).

     

    You can see that while until 4CC/EU of last season Chan, Fernandez and Yuzuru were in the same range and distant from 2 to 4 points from the others, now Shoma is in the same their range too.

    Chen is rising but is still a little bit under, like Kolyada. Jin is improving but not enough (in term of scores, naturally).

  19. It is always interesting to look at the names and nationality of the judges...http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpfra2017/SEG001OF.HTM

     

    Javi had a very good performance but Mr. Delfa (J1, Spain) gave him two 9.75 and three 10.00 with and average of 9.9. Obviously he gave among the lowest scores to Shoma ;).

    Such as for the ladies, Japan judge (J4) seemed be more objective for the skater of her country, while the Russian (J8) one tried to prop a little up Samarin.

    In general PCS of the first men are really a little bit too high and probably mostly because of reputation  and/or because of the comparison with the other performances of the night.

    Also with errors and fall Shoma seems to be stable in the range of the 9s-9.20s...and I don't say anything more.

     

    That said: kudos to Javi for a great performance World champion worthy (also if I don't like those kind of programs) and congratulations to Shoma and Samarin for the fight. I hope that all the men could have a good rest for a great performance tomorrow.

     

     

  20. 8 minutes ago, Xen said:

    Ah, well yes, that explains everything. Holy cow were those PCS scores a bit...through the roof. 

     

    Yep, she (Ms. Jean SENFT) clearly overscored Osmond (come on, for her the average PCS of Osmond in this performance should have been in 9.50s...), underscored Zagitova and also Mihara. Mihara was punished well also by the Russian judge (J4), who tried to help the Russian ladies. I have to say that, on the contrary, the Japan judge (J7) did nothing in particular to held up her country ladies ...

     

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpfra2017/SEG003OF.HTM

     

    It's true that the highest score doesn't count as well the lowest, but also doing so some scores are a still little bit to high or too low.

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