Jump to content

xeyra

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,169

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by xeyra

  1. xeyra
    The SP PCS are a different animal than FS PCS. They're a lot more bunched up together. While high 8s in the FS would give a score in the high 80s, which is still about 10 points away from a high 9s score, in a SP they give you a score of about 43-44, which comparatively to a high 9s score makes for very little difference. So Nathan might reach a low 9s score of 45-46 in the SP when clean, and with his BV it can be very good for him. The FS score, though, that'll be the differential factor between men. We'll see his FS today or tomorrow (I forget which day it is) and we'll see what his 'base' PCS score will be there. Edit: Whether he should be getting high 8s/low 9s or not, that's another thing altogether that I'm not going to touch.
  2. xeyra
    Yeah, apparently his planned content layout actually has the 4Lz as the last jump pass. He's out-crazying the anime...
  3. xeyra
    I always wonder, though. Is doing two quads in the second half of the SP really comparatively harder than doing them in the first half of a FS? A SP is basically half the length of a FS. Sure, you usually get your two quads out in a FS in the first minute or so and don't tire yourself out with spins or step sequences, but it's not like Nathan hasn't landed 4 quads in 2 minutes before so 2 should be relatively easy for him. Whether they'll have steps going into them we'll have to see but I always wondered why skaters didn't backload 2 instead of just one jump, considering. The ladies did start a trend first.
  4. xeyra
    Look, whether it should happen or not, Shoma is a World silver medalist and he's now going to start with a base PCS for when clean. And since Lombardia already started out wild in the ladies, you were never going to be seeing less than the base he established for himself for a clean(ish) performance last season. That's the nature of the game nowadays. Yuzu also has a base 45 PCS for the SP, even when he fucks up on it. I'm not going to go onto whether it's deserved or not, that one does more one-foot skating than the other, has more or less transitions, etc. I do think the fact ISU muddled up the definition of the steps to solo jump in the SP with this wonderful description - 'clear, recognizable (creative, interesting, original for jump preceded by steps/movements of the Short Program) steps/free skating movements immediately preceding element' - is probably not going to help make judging more objective on this particular aspect of the SP. I mean, what is creative, original steps/movements anyway? I'd consider a SE one, but not sure I'd call what Shoma did immediately before the 4F particularly creative or interesting, but who the fucks knows, at least difficult steps were better defined and easier to mark (not that judges applied it consistently across the board) than what we have now, so judges do what they want as always. The USA judge, by the way, was rather conservative across the board, including with Jason. It just really contrasted with all the other judges in Shoma's protocol because everyone else scored him very high. I probably wouldn't have been as conservative as the USA judge but would probably not be doling out 9.50 in transitions either. In fact, the contrast between judges on his transitions score is rather . I found the scoring in the ladies and the underscoring of Deniss comparatively more problematic and even Jason was generously scored (and Nathan too, in the US Classic, even though I quite like his new SP!). It's troubling, from a progressive PCS point of view, though, to start at such a high base for everyone at the beginning of the season so we'll see exactly how many ceilings we'll be hitting later on... Edit: Winter did have a lot of mileage in front of crowds during the summer at shows. It's not like Shoma is bringing a completely rough program he's doing outside of training for the first time. It has matured through the summer shows, although I've seen him do better versions of it outside of the jumps in some of the broadcast show versions.
  5. xeyra
    Not salty per se, just (boldly) predicting things will be wild this season considering how it's started. I await the wonders of US Classic to surpass Lombardia. The breaking of records I expected even before today because of all the BV upgrading going on by all.
  6. xeyra
    Many Records will be broken this season and any clean skate by Olys of Top men will have 49 PCS for SP and 99 PCS for FS. Just you wait.
  7. xeyra
    Only if I supervise him closely. I'm afraid he might burn my skillet.
  8. xeyra
    Interesting new site just launched with scoresheets and comparative ranks on elements and PCS per competition/segment. They currently only have last season and current season scores but it's interesting to look at the comparisons between skaters. For example, I didn't even notice that despite the low score on his SP at Worlds, Yuzu ranked first in two spins! http://skatingscores.com/
  9. xeyra
    Important question: why is he using an apron to do laundry!?
  10. xeyra
    I hate ironing. I'm glad you volunteer because I couldn't, not even for Zuzu.
  11. xeyra
    Who was it who did that manip of Javi in Yuzu's costume? @KatjaThera, was it you? It was awesome.
  12. xeyra
    So close to the start of the season? Is she going back to an old one or?
  13. xeyra
    Come on, try to be a little realistic, he'll only get that 5Loop next season.
  14. xeyra
    I love Moulin Rouge and will continue to do so, so I know I'll enjoy programs with Moulin Rouge music. Except Tango de Roxanne. The only part I liked on that song was Ewan's singing and that's mostly because Ewan can do no wrong in my eyes, not because he's an amazing singer. The other warhorses, though, that'll depend on how many times I'll have to listen to them through the season in both seniors and juniors.... I know I'm already a bit tired of Nessun Dorma but two skaters and one pair I like are using Turandot, so I must endure for their sake!
  15. xeyra
    I thought that would be like that too, actually, which would be simpler, but then they decided to lower BVs too, so a -5 on a 4T fall would make it worth 4.5, which is basically a 3T, so it's still the same issue of punishing quads a bit disproportionally. Also, the icenetwork article talked about applying a set percentage off BV for GOE, so that stopped the idea of just a basic +5/-5 . Which makes things even worse when it comes to negative GOE. So I don't know. I'm speculating using these tables for fun but I've the feeling this is not going to be what they intend. Edit: might they lower quad's factoring from the 1 they currently have while doing these changes to GOE, I wonder.
  16. xeyra
    Yes, I questioned the same thing. -4/-5 GOE will have to be applied to something but I cannot think that they'll do the same 10% increments off BV for negative GOE as it's speculated for positive GOE (heck, I don't even think +5 GOE will be worth 50% of a jump's BV, which is... a lot), so whatever tables fans are doing and speculating about is likely to be wrong anyway. That or ISU really wants a fall on a quad to be worth as much as a so so triple, in which case say goodbye to quads.
  17. xeyra
    We have to remember, though, that these tables are speculative only. We don't yet know exactly how much each GOE interval will give or take away from a jump. We know they talked about increments of 10% of BV but maybe it'll be less for negative GOE or they'll have a different formula in the end than what we speculate. And I both doubt there'll be many over rewarding of +5 on jumps as well as that they'll take 50% off the BV of a jump in GOE if you fall on it. A -2 GOE on a fall in the new system, if at 10% of BV, would already make a jump worth less than the same jump with -4 GOE in the current system, due to the BV reduction too.
  18. xeyra
    Actually, now that I looked at the tables, I didn't actually sum up the individual 10s per PCS category so here's some revised tables. ETA: Replaced 2015-2016 table with correct totals since Excel decided to spaz and added stuff it shouldn't have.
  19. xeyra
    I just realized the image link to the 2015-2016 table is broken on this post. Fixed!
  20. xeyra
    Well, it's long-shot predictions, after all. Some took them more seriously than others. Plus there's some bias always.
  21. xeyra
    The artistic program could be so ripe for politicking. And likely based on 'taste'. Like Ice Dance. Either way, the goal is not to bridge any gap between 'artistic' and 'athletic'... it's to separate them. The overall medal is merely a possibility, not planned like the two separate program medals, so bridging the gap is not their intention going forward with the sport.
  22. xeyra
    Min maxing depends on capabilities and risk/reward but without 4A, the max layout would probably go something like 4Lz3T 4F // 4Lz 4F2T 4S 4T 3A1Lo3F. Or better yet, 4Lz 4F // 4Lz3T 4F2T 4S 4T 3A1Lo3F. Or even 4Lz 4F // 4Lz3T 4F3Lo 4S 4T 3A1Lo3F! But your suggestion, counting spins and steps: 4T 4Lz // 4Lo 4T-3T 4S-2T 3A-1Lo-3S 3A - 98.70 BV 4T 4Lz // 4F 4T-3T 4S-2T 3A-1Lo-3F 3A - 100.35 BV This without another repeat quad instead of one of the 3As. Max possible TES is hard to calculate because you don't know how the percentage will be applied exactly but going by the list the japanese created and assuming GOE intervals on combos are applied according to the first jump BV only (and without counting bonus), this would be an idea of the possible max TES on these layouts: 4T 4Lz // 4Lo 4T-3T 4S-2T 3A-1Lo-3S 3A - 140.75 TES 4T 4Lz // 4F 4T-3T 4S-2T 3A-1Lo-3F 3A - 142.65 TES Edit: This TES would never be achievable, though, because I doubt there'll be as much freedom with +5 GOE as there's been with +3.
  23. xeyra
    Plus one of the combos needs to be with a 2T otherwise there'd be 3 repetitions. And while some of the guys could jump a layout like that, you'd probably see the 4Lzers use their 4Lz3T combo in the first half. And variation on where the combos are, where the jumps are. Yuzu would probably jump that 4Lo in the first half, not the second, for example.
  24. xeyra
    Do you mean 3A-1lo-3S or 3F here?
  25. xeyra
    Yeah, it seems rather overkill to punish falls on quads THAT much. Using the 10% out of BV percentage for the GOE intervals, -2 GOE on a fall would take about -2.30 out of a 11.50 BV 4Lz. That'd be worth 9.2 (previously a fall on a 4Lz quad would be worth 9.6). So I can see that but at the same time, why have -5 GOE at all? Unless the interval percentage on negative GOE is lower than the 10% mentioned. I also just realized we also have to account for one less jumping pass when thinking about TES with the new system, actually. One jump is going to be cut, so I wonder if any person with quads will cut a quad or a triple...
×
×
  • Create New...