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14 minutes ago, liv said:

 

i agree. That is usually the case... My scary scenario is where Nathan goes totally clean. I know everything is theoretical, but the question for me is how much improvement in his skating will there be, beyond the jumps, and if so, how much will the judges give him for it. If he has knock your socks off programs, and also skates perfectly, what happens if the other guys go clean too? What if, for the first time in forever, the top guys all skate perfectly at the Olympics?

 

That being said, I would love to see it. A perfect final flight. What a treat it would be for everyone.

Goebel skated clean back to back at Salt Lake city on home ice with 3 quads in the LP (a quad in the second half) and went third on his home ice.

so yeah... the reason? His skating was weak compared to both Plushenko and Yagudin. The highest BV doesn't say it all. 

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26 minutes ago, meoima said:

Goebel skated clean back to back at Salt Lake city on home ice with 3 quads in the LP (a quad in the second half) and went third on his home ice.

so yeah... the reason? His skating was weak compared to both Plushenko and Yagudin. The highest BV doesn't say it all. 

 

Goebel and Nathan are very different cases. There is a big difference in skating skills between the two.... Goebel was weaker in almost every department, showed very little improvement year to year,  and was nowhere near either of those two legends.... and it was 6.0 then, not COP, so who knows what the marks would have been then.  

 

ITA about BV not being everything, ITA, i'm just saying the rest of " everything" of his skating will be getting better quickly and I'm afraid of the marks he's going to get. I am not a big fan of his, but he's young, has potential and has a powerful federation behind him.  

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27 minutes ago, liv said:

 

Goebel and Nathan are very different cases. There is a big difference in skating skills between the two.... Goebel was weaker in almost every department, showed very little improvement year to year,  and was nowhere near either of those two legends.... and it was 6.0 then, not COP, so who knows what the marks would have been then.  

 

ITA about BV not being everything, ITA, i'm just saying the rest of " everything" of his skating will be getting better quickly and I'm afraid of the marks he's going to get. I am not a big fan of his, but he's young, has potential and has a powerful federation behind him.  

I don't see the current Nathan being better than Goebel at 2002.

Well if you go for 6-7 quads, there's not much to improve your skating skills. There is something only time and experience can help and that is expression. In classical music world, there are many young prodigy who play difficult pieces like Lizst without missing a note. But it takes quite a long time for them to become someone as legendary as Pollini for example. I would rather listen to Claudio Arrau missing notes than to some young robots who can hit every note. 

 

I have faith in Yuzuru more. We all know American fed will do anything to support Nathan while JSF will more likely to not do that for Yuzuru. But Yuzuru is very good at dealing with tensions. The more everything is against him (Korean ice might not welcome him the most, strongest feds have their own favorites, JSF don't support him as much as they could) the more he can make it. 

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18 minutes ago, liv said:

 

Goebel and Nathan are very different cases. There is a big difference in skating skills between the two.... Goebel was weaker in almost every department, showed very little improvement year to year,  and was nowhere near either of those two legends.... and it was 6.0 then, not COP, so who knows what the marks would have been then.  

 

ITA about BV not being everything, ITA, i'm just saying the rest of " everything" of his skating will be getting better quickly and I'm afraid of the marks he's going to get. I am not a big fan of his, but he's young, has potential and has a powerful federation behind him.  

I won't be pessimist, sure we can't predict who'll get the gold medal for next year coz there are top 6 in men discipline right now, but as @¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said (i was agree with her/him) IF Hanyu manages to build a good momentum and then skate his lights out with his layout on the Oly stage, he’s untouchable, even if everyone else in the field does the same, monster BV or no monster BV.

 

I believe yuzu will be in his own league if he had the perfect skate like he did in Helsinki.

 

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29 minutes ago, liv said:

 

Goebel and Nathan are very different cases. There is a big difference in skating skills between the two.... Goebel was weaker in almost every department, showed very little improvement year to year,  and was nowhere near either of those two legends.... and it was 6.0 then, not COP, so who knows what the marks would have been then.  

 

ITA about BV not being everything, ITA, i'm just saying the rest of " everything" of his skating will be getting better quickly and I'm afraid of the marks he's going to get. I am not a big fan of his, but he's young, has potential and has a powerful federation behind him.  

 

Totally agree with you. But then its still too early, we dont know how much Nathan would improve in summer. Better wait until competitions begins. Yeah  one thing for sure, US fed/media will hype him up like crazy, with all those balletic articles and somehow it may effect to judges. Look at his marks at 4CC, 89 pcs for an empty LP and he's not even clean. I would not surprise if he get 92+ pcs for even emptier program with 6-7 landed quads. Tbh next year is his best chance, idk if he could hang on to 2022. 
Off topic : Just watched Wimbledon (yay Federer !!!) and I think beside all the BV/politics game, the most important thing for all top men (and other 3 disciplines too) is to keep injury- free in the next 7 months. Especially for the men, with all the quads they do, being healthy is the first priority IMO

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2 minutes ago, meoima said:

Korean ice might not welcome him the most

I think they will welcome him, even if he is Japanese. If all of the very favorable news (even more favorable than Japanese news) during 4CC are an indicator. 

 

And Nathan is already being heavily promoted. As @Danibellerika pointed out:

 

 

Nathan doesn't even have a world medal lol, everyone has olympic golds...

 

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If Nathan lands 7-quads, it's possible not even a super clean Yuzu might beat him, due to sheer BV. Who knows? But whatever happens, I just want people to do their best and skate well, and then the dice will fall where it will. 

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We have no idea what Yuzuru is going to come out with, until August at least, so this is my main thing right now. I am still in the same place I was previously, we will see the 4Lz. This alone would open up the field for him to experiment more, so I think his BV is also going to go up. Another important thing is that this past season, we've seen Yuzuru have first 2 then 3 quads in the second half, including that triple combination. One thing I am fairly certain of is that this will influence his thinking come this upcoming season's FS and second half quads will again appear, maybe even the full 3. Now he has already done this, so not being new ground is a big benefit. We need to wait and see what he's actually going to bring to the table to have a better idea. 

 

As for Nathan, well there's wanting and then there's actually doing it (which goes for all of them of course) but I think going for 6 seems pretty realistic at this point (I am not sure he'd go for the 4Lo). Nathan had trouble with stamina and 5 quads this season. His program was already empty, with one or two more quads, it is just going to get worse. His PCS will be good in the SP I think but the FS? We'll see. Then if he has some in the 2nd half, as he will, it increases difficulty greatly. So it's way easier to say it than do it. 
Then yes, USFSA will of course amp up the politicking, Lysacek didn't become the Olympic champion just like that; it was after months of carefully crafted both image and PR, some aimed against Plushenko directly. But Yuzuru isn't Plushenko, he is in a much better position, because there are no true flaws to go after and while they can repeat the scoring at Helsinki, Helsinki also showed that they can't underscore him without people noticing, even that much. And skating doesn't need another scandal. 

 

I am honestly not worried at this point. It's too soon, with too many variables just for those two, never mind the others, especially if the wonky judging from the previous season holds. But IMO if he goes clean, I think Yuzuru has probably got this - but clean, both in the SP and the FS. Anything else opens up the field. 

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Yes, let's believe yuzu and his team. They know what's better plan to do. Just praying everything goes well in Olympic season. 

 

Btw, sorry a bit off topic, but is there another video like this one?

This is really informative. I learn so much about this sport from this video. 

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1 hour ago, Yatagarasu said:

We have no idea what Yuzuru is going to come out with, until August at least, so this is my main thing right now. I am still in the same place I was previously, we will see the 4Lz. This alone would open up the field for him to experiment more, so I think his BV is also going to go up. Another important thing is that this past season, we've seen Yuzuru have first 2 then 3 quads in the second half, including that triple combination. One thing I am fairly certain of is that this will influence his thinking come this upcoming season's FS and second half quads will again appear, maybe even the full 3. Now he has already done this, so not being new ground is a big benefit. We need to wait and see what he's actually going to bring to the table to have a better idea. 

 

As for Nathan, well there's wanting and then there's actually doing it (which goes for all of them of course) but I think going for 6 seems pretty realistic at this point (I am not sure he'd go for the 4Lo). Nathan had trouble with stamina and 5 quads this season. His program was already empty, with one or two more quads, it is just going to get worse. His PCS will be good in the SP I think but the FS? We'll see. Then if he has some in the 2nd half, as he will, it increases difficulty greatly. So it's way easier to say it than do it. 
Then yes, USFSA will of course amp up the politicking, Lysacek didn't become the Olympic champion just like that; it was after months of carefully crafted both image and PR, some aimed against Plushenko directly. But Yuzuru isn't Plushenko, he is in a much better position, because there are no true flaws to go after and while they can repeat the scoring at Helsinki, Helsinki also showed that they can't underscore him without people noticing, even that much. And skating doesn't need another scandal. 

 

I am honestly not worried at this point. It's too soon, with too many variables just for those two, never mind the others, especially if the wonky judging from the previous season holds. But IMO if he goes clean, I think Yuzuru has probably got this - but clean, both in the SP and the FS. Anything else opens up the field. 

And seriously, in this world there is nothing comes for free and gives you best quality and quantity in just several months. Most people don't understand why Yuzuru has to choose Chopin. It's just 7 months away from the Olympic, not 4 years.

In classical music world, many pianists keep practicing from young, like 3-4 years old. Some of them might hit all the notes of the most difficult music pieces when they're 12 but I am telling you no one says their interpretation is greatest ever. 

It's Richer, Giles, Horowitz, Pollini... and other OLD pianists who are forever remembered as greatest pianists, not someone who only hit their notes right.

 

Come to think of it, talking about young talent who destroyed their abilities since young, there have been many opera singers who did that. Their natural voices were good and powerful and they wanted to be remembered too fast, they accepted roles that required so much destruction to their voices, by the time they're 30 their voices are done. With Opera, mostly you don't get famous before you're over 30 as it's only by that time your voices have become stable. Most opera singers are still students by the mid twenties as they have to wait for their voices to mature and study the roles and aria, songs at the same time. I don't see any young voices singing difficult musical pieces since young to develop good voice when they grow up. If you want evidence, google Charlotte Church when she was 14 and look at her now. She might be rich but she will never be recognized as a good singer by experts. 

There are things in this world you can not rush. I do believe when it comes to art and technique going along, you can't rush. Figure skating is also an art, mind you. 

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I admit all this talk about BV scares me. We used to have Yuzuru as the skater with the highest base value, but this past season not only Boyang but also Nathan and Shoma upped their game. I still think a clean Yuzu wins any day, but my concern is more on how much can Yuzu make his programs harder, I know he always improved season by season. I just wonder if it will be enough against the crazy quad race.

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