General Yuzuru Chat

[xeyra]

  On 10/20/2017 at 5:13 PM, SuzyQ said:

 

Yes, you have grown a lot  

 

SP scores of the first GP event:

2013     80.40     3rd
2014     82.95     2nd
2015     73.25     6th
2016     79.65     4th

2017     94.85     2nd

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Everyone ignores 2012 in these lists, though. 

[swanbeau]

like i said in the men sp thread, its not the recycling, not even the lack of clean-ness, its the ur  it killed the ladies too lmao

[xeyra]

  On 10/20/2017 at 6:55 PM, Yolo3a said:

Honestly, I thought the judges were fine? He got a 46+ out of 50 in a program with a fall? He had 47+ in his WR breaking performance. So judges still went with program, but he lacked clean-ness and TES. 

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Let's all pretend the judges hate Chopin so much they didn't give it 112 at ACI or anything. 

[Yolo3a]

  On 10/20/2017 at 7:05 PM, swanbeau said:

like i said in the men sp thread, its not the recycling, not even the lack of clean-ness, its the ur  it killed the ladies too lmao

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Yeah ...

[Dori6886]

  On 10/20/2017 at 5:41 PM, Amura365 said:

I think that doing Chopin for a third time is beginning to look like a mistake. Especially given how he skated it this morning he's not doing himself any favors. As a Hanyu fan I was not impressed and it didn't look like the judges were either. If you're going to do a program for a third season you better sell the heck out of it. You have to skate it clean otherwise you're not justifying why you're using it. I know many will say Hanyu always had a slow start at the beginning the season. I'm well aware of his track record however he can't afford to make errors like that anymore when he's gotten Nathan Chen and Shoma Uno and many others nipping at his heels now he does not have a fall/mistake cushion anymore that doesn't exist.

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We can criticize repeating programs as fans (I was doing it too after he announced Chopin 3.0, but I love it now ) but there is no rules regarding repeating  programs, so as long as he has great skating skills, lots of transisions and good interpretation, there is no reason for judges to lower his scores in PCS because of repeat. Today's problem was in execution of technical elements and that's where he lost points. His SP score today was his highest SP score in his 1st GP since 2012, so I think it's too early to tell if repeating  Chopin was a mistake.

[micaelis]

Like some I'm also uncomfortable with Yuzu's short program choice for this season.  Considering the nature of Seimei I think he needs a much different short program, one more like LGC.  Actually, I like Parisian better than LGC but he can't do that at the Olympics.  It would be too much a repeat, despite the fact he set four world records with it.  Actually, if Yuzu was set on Chopin, I think he should have chosen a different long program, to be precise, I wish he'd gone with POTO.  It's very much dismissed by so many here but I think it actually the best of the long programs he's done in terms of the music and choreography working wholly together.  The fact that it's identified with that disastrous early season he had in 2014 I think has soured so many on it.  But it is unfamiliar enough to so many to actually seem like a new program and, on the basis of what Yuzu did in the GPF with that program, it is a program that Yuzu when he's on, can turn into a total knockout.  Add some  quads to bring it up to contemorary demands and I think he could have nailed this season.  My experience with figure skating is relatively new but I've been dealing with ballet and modern dance for decades and I have a keen sense of the marriage of motion and music that makes for the best dancing.  Choreographically I feel that POTO is probably the best long program he's had, with RJ1 as second.  Yuzu really soars when his music is strongly dramatic.  Enough, though, I've said what I wanted to say.  I'll settle for his choices and hope that he can recapture the magic he evoked back in those two weeks in late 2015.

[liv]

  On 10/20/2017 at 7:06 PM, xeyra said:

 

Let's all pretend the judges hate Chopin so much they didn't give it 112 at ACI or anything. 

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In CANADA to boot.... my evil yuzu hating home, lol.

[Dori6886]

In lighter mood: l didn't know it when I posted it earlier in Rostelecom Cup thread, but it looks like Eteri and her girls might feel betrayed by Yuzu 

[Xen]

*sigh* I need to get up in 5 hours to go practice. So sleep deprivation means tomorrow I probably won't practice jumps. But here goes.

 

Summary:

1) realistically, let's not expect Yuzu to win SP each time. If he skates squeaky clean maybe, but it's highly likely that he'll sit behind one of the sQuadsters in the SP later on in GPF and at Olys. Before people panic about what I released into the world-I still think he can win, but he'd have to go WR breaking mode. But top 3 is definitely easily doable for him.

2) Seimei and Chopin were smart choices, regardless of whether we wanted new programs or not

3) Like it or not, 4Lz was going to come and will probably stay. And it is quite critical that he add it this season.

 

And I think his goal is to dominate in the long. So there, everything is to achieve that goal.

 

Reasoning: 

  Reveal hidden contents

1) Why SP may not be his best shot this season:

 -SP has far less elements, this means less room for error, and less GOEs (which Yuzu excels at getting) to spread around. So a SP where everyone skates clean, means everyone is bunched together. 

- Bunching together means BV plays a much bigger role

- So unless Yuzu goes super clean (WR level clean) and no other guy does, the chances of him taking first place after SP is 50/50 because he does not have the highest BV. 

 

2) Seimei and Chopin:

- Not really surprised. Those were the iconic programs of his (yes I like LGC too but Chopin was safer and probably appealed to his emotional side a bit more). As for Seimei-seriously who else do you associate with Seimei? 

-I hate to say it ladies, but Yuzu does not strike me as romantic. I think RJ1.0 worked for him because the music and the step sequence focused more on his intensity and passion, which when married to his natural expressiveness, worked wonders. BUT he is probably not the type to pull off Phantom easily. His passion and intensity is focused on a goal, not necessarily a person, and mature as he is, that is actually an emotive barrier that is perhaps hard to truly cross. Plus, even if he really is that passionate, intense and romantic, he might not want to show it as a performance on ice. Remember he was a pissed off Romeo in RJ1.0, not a romantic Romeo trying to woo your hand there. 

-Seimei and Chopin are probably 2 programs where he doesn't have to worry about artistry-he can afford to be even a bit cool and thinking while skating (Seimei GPF15, ACI Chopin for examples). That's because he identifies with Seimei, and understands the fury and passion of Chopin. He's already had a season to do so, if it wasn't natural for him. 

 

3) 4Lz baby: part of his eventual goal, but the sQuadsters probably contributed too starting back in 2015/2016

-PCs scores are capped at 100 for long, 50 for short. He's gotten pretty close to that, so where does he go for more points against the new guys?  He has to raise his BV. 

-Because a higher BV plays to his advantage. A fairly clean Yuzu can slay other men in PCs and GOEs, even if the other guys are clean. More elements in the FS, more points for him to gain via GOEs and more pronounced the PCs differences. 

-But GOEs and PCs won't help you if you don't have a decent enough BV. You don't need the highest, but you can't be too low-that was Javi's mistake in 2016/2017

 

So with 4Lz and Seimei/Chopin combined, it's actually good strategy. Why?  Because everything revolves around the free program. 

 

1) So Nathan's team had supposedly a strategy where he would go reduce quads first, raise his PCs and then gradually add quads without taking hits to PCs (aka the Russian Pairs 2014 idea). And succeeds. A 4Lz and Seimei/Chopin combination can hold this off:

  - A 4Lz ensures that Yuzu is not too behind in the BV values in the long, and so long as he's decently clean, judges historically did give him a ton of candies in PCs for Seimei and Chopin. And Nathan, good as he is, has usually had less in those 2 components. Chopin especially-look at today's scores, he had 2 errors, Nate had none, and Yuzu still within 6 points. 6 points is easy to make up in the Free- it's just 1 jump, and Yuzu's come back from 9 points behind before (helsinki anyone?). So 6 points is totally doable, provided he does not leave to much of a BV gap that his good GOEs, PCS etc cannot make up. 

 

2) So let's say that Nathan's team miscalculated in that strategy, and the judges do not actually raise his PCS along their plans. Well then, Yuzu's program choice and 4Lz, provided he skates decently clean, can win outright. His higher BV, when executed, means he also won't need to worry much about Javi or Pchiddy. And his GOEs and PCs means he won't need to lose too much sleep over them in the free either. 

Now to sleep I go. 

[kelly]

Guys when did we get over 100,000 posts 

[Hydroblade]

  On 10/20/2017 at 8:19 PM, kelly said:

Guys when did we get over 100,000 posts 

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Yesterday  before he skated. I didn't get a screenshot of the 100k but i have of the 100010

[kelly]

  On 10/20/2017 at 8:20 PM, Hydroblade said:

Yesterday  before he skated. I didn't get a screenshot of the 100k but i have of the 100010

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Oh yay 

[yuzuangel]

  On 10/20/2017 at 8:22 PM, kelly said:

Oh yay 

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i was asleep  i really wanted post #100,000

[kelly]

  On 10/20/2017 at 8:23 PM, yuzuangel said:

i was asleep  i really wanted post #100,000

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I was in class but had to "go to the bathroom" for 10 mins just to see yuzu skate... Look what he makes me do...

[xeyra]

  On 10/20/2017 at 8:05 PM, Xen said:

 

Reasoning: 

  Reveal hidden contents

1) Why SP may not be his best shot this season:

 -SP has far less elements, this means less room for error, and less GOEs (which Yuzu excels at getting) to spread around. So a SP where everyone skates clean, means everyone is bunched together. 

- Bunching together means BV plays a much bigger role

- So unless Yuzu goes super clean (WR level clean) and no other guy does, the chances of him taking first place after SP is 50/50 because he does not have the highest BV. 

 

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I disagree here. Clean Yuzu will always win the SP even with Nathan going clean, despite lower BV, unless Nathan suddenly starts getting +3 on all his jumping passes and 45-46 PCS. Shoma and Yuzu have too close a BV that if both clean, Yuzu will win. 

 

Key word here, of course, being going clean. Which Yuzu needs to be a bit more in his SP from now on.