2019/2020 Senior Ladies

[Deliverpooh]

This season promises to be a very exciting year. The Olympic Champion became World Champion in the last season, while the Olympic silver medalist seems to be hitting her stride again.

 

Of course, there is also Rika Kihira and Elizaveta Tuk, whose triple axels always make them a threat for the podium.

 

With the entrance of young talents like the already famous Russian 3A and You Young into the mix, the battle for the medals is on.

 

Who do you think will shine this season? Will ladies without quads still have a chance at the gold?

 

This thread is meant for discussion of senior ladies during this season.

[ralucutzagy]

IMO, this season will be dominated by the ladies with quads and 3As  in their arsenal (russian babies, Rika). And with the actual state of judging, hardy anybody else stands any chance .... 

[Deliverpooh]

I wonder what Shcherbakova will do. To me, she's quite the dark horse, because she has high potentisl, but not Alina's PCS and reputation or Aleksandra's triple quad arsenal yet.

 

The important word here is 'yet' as she has the potential to grow a lot more in tech and PCS.

[Old Cat Lady]

I had my doubts about Scherbakova because I thought she was all 4lz or bust and she mostly busts, but she managed to stay on her feet in 3 of the last 4 competitions so maybe it's stabilizing.  If she manages to string together a few good competitions, I imagine her PCS will rise. 

 

The story for the ladies this year is going to be which Russians get left off the world team.  Trusova is the one to beat this year.  I'm really curious what kind of PCS Kostornaya will get.  I'm guessing the Russian team will be Trusova, Scherbakova, and Zagitova, which is really sad because I also expect Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva, and Kostornaya to all medal in both their Grand prix events.  I also wonder if Zagitova's PCS will come back down to earth this year since I expect her to get supplanted as the top skater.

 

I think only Rika will be able to break up the Russian podium.  Sadly, I don't think Satoko is a true world medal contender anymore - she'd need a lot of mistakes to get on the podium - and I don't see Wakaba making a comeback. Kaori is also hoping for mistakes to make the final.  I don't see any of the Koreans being a real threat this year and I think Tursynbaeva is likely a one time world medalist.

 

I also wonder if we're going to see a decent program from any of the ladies.  All the ones I've seen so far have ranged from awful to mediocre (but I haven't seen all the competitions yet) but I'm holding out hope that some of them will be good with a little more polish.

[Old Cat Lady]

Made some projected scores 

Methodology:

1. Used highest PCS from previous year - using a flat 8.5 for those who were in juniors last year, anticipating a rise as the season goes on

2. Only changed the GOE for elements with neg GOE, <, e, or v.  Used the GOE of a similar element from the same event if possible.  If none landed cleanly, used the highest score from an ISU event in Skating Scores on the element.  Used the actual composite GOE (after high and low dropped) for all other elements.  

3. If a skater lost a level, I changed it to level 4 but kept the actual GOE for the element.

4. was reluctant to use WTT scores. I used it for PCS but not GOE since Tuk didn't get a chance to skate in the 2nd half season events but she did multiple triple axels in the season

 

Keep in mind that these are based on actual attempted layouts and are not taking into account possible technical capabilities

 

Trusova - Ondrej Nepela - PCS of 8.5

BV = 114.84

Actual total score = 240.27

Projected total score = 243.05

 

Kihira - Autumn Classic - PCS from WTT for  SP, Worlds for LP

BV = 105.02

Actual Total Score = 224.16

Projected Total Score = 236.78

 

Scherbakova - Lombardia - PCS of 8.5

BV = 107.89

Actual Total score = 218.2

Projected Total Score = 230.67

 

Tuktamysheva - Lombardia - PCS from WTT

BV = 104.71

Actual Total Score = 214.38

Projected Total Score = 231.67

 

 

Medvedeva - Autumn Classic - PCS from Worlds

BV = 95.76

Actual total score = 217.43

Projected total score = 226.28

 

[anski]

I agree that Satoko will sadly be away from the podium from

now on. She’s a very talented skater but I don’t think she can compete with Rika and all the Russians coming from Juniors.

 

Apart from Rika, I think the podiums and Top 5 scores will be dominated by Russia. I feel very bad for Tuktamysheva because she’s my favorite lady and actually one of the strongest Russians, but the “Juniors” will come on top and we all know RusFed will always favor Zhenya and Zagitova over Liza...

[Paskud]

Everybody forget about Lilbet and Young You.

[sallycinnamon]

6 hours ago, Paskud said:

Everybody forget about Lilbet and Young You.

 

Young has big scoring potential if she lands the 3A consistently, otherwise she'll have a harder time.

 

The news about Lilbet's injury is a bit concerning, I don't know how she'll do in the coming season.

[Old Cat Lady]

Actually I mentioned both Tursynbaeva and the Koreans as a whole in my initial post about the ladies that I don't expect to threaten to medal at the world podium this year. And OP also mentioned You.

 

With Tursynbaeva, even without the injury, I thought last year's silver was a one shot deal. I'm not sure how serious her injury is, but that puts her more in doubt.  I imagine Eteri is going to be focusing more on her skaters that are favored to be world medalists, especially Trusova.

 

Young You is good for someone coming out of juniors, but she has neither the tech of Trusova/Scherbakova nor the polish and presence of the high level seniors. 

 

For projected scores, you can use Tursynbaeva's worlds score since the tech panel deemed her clean at that event

BV = 96.64

Total Score = 224.26

 

Young You based on U.S. Classic if she were clean with all her levels and 8.5 PCS

BV = 104.34

Actual score = 199.29

Projected score = 228.17

So far she is 0/4 on landing the 3a clean (defined as + GOE)

 

For scoring potential based on the level that you can reasonably expect (as opposed to squeaky clean with all levels) + political pull + reputation points I'd say the top 10 is currently:

 

1. Trusova

2. Kihira

3. Zagitova

4. Scherbakova

5. Tuktamysheva

6. Medvedeva

7-8. Kostornaya / Sakamoto - really not sure where Kostornaya should be

9. Tursynbaeva (I have her so low because she's less consistent, especially in the first half of the season)

10. Miyahara - Just doesn't have strong enough tech - both in quality and bv

 

I put Kihira above Zagitova because her 3 axel seems more consistent than last year.  

 

[liv]

Obviously the 3A are the story, with Trusova on top. If she lands those jumps no one will beat her despite her obvious flaws elsewhere. Scherbakova, if she is consistent with her lutz, might make a run for it too, and her pcs should be better than Trusova's. As for Kostornaia... she has the best pcs, and should on goe, but that doesn't make up ground because the other 2 do the same intricate choreo and spins that she does so still get good marks. The problem is she does it all so much better... kind of like a Jason Brown situation,  but without the rewards. And that has always been a problem, properly rewarding goe and pcs. 

 

Non Eteri coached Russians will have troubles even before they step on the ice... reputation mark disadvantage.

 

Tursynbaeva... to me that was a one shot medal. 

 

Kihira. If she skates cleanly she is a contender, but her program was a disappointment to me. Sakamoto, miyahara... they need bigger tricks now. Mihara, with illness and no bigger tricks.... I will just enjoy watching them and their ease and flow in just skating. 

 

I hope everyone just continues to work hard and they don't get discouraged, only motivated. It is a long journey to the Olympics. So many things can happen. I worry especially for young bodies pounding away on quads. I was chatting with a coach at ACI who said * she's crazy* with the risks she was taking with young bodies. Time will tell. 

[yuzuangel]

On 9/24/2019 at 4:55 AM, Old Cat Lady said:

I think only Rika will be able to break up the Russian podium. 

Unfortunately, I agree. I think Kaori is pleasant to watch, but she doesn't have the tech (no lutz in the SP because of obvious flutz, only one lutz in the FS that gets called), nor does she have the reputation scoring. Wakaba...sigh. Poor girl, it seems like she's constantly injured, so I'm not sure we'll see enough consistency and 3As (if any) in competition for her to challenge the top ladies.

 

Satoko...her jumps are no better than before, and her consistency may be worse than ever. I don't see her being a medal contender at Worlds anymore, and with the rise of other Japanese ladies over her, she will see dips in her PCS as well. Even though she should be getting one of the highest PCS in the field. 

 

I think a lot of people, including me, are willing to bet that Sasha Trusova will dominate the season. Her technical arsenal and her consistency is unparalleled. She's not my favorite skater to watch, but her team knows how to focus her strengths by giving her power programs, and power is one thing she has in spades.

 

I think Alina will be on the World team even without quads, if she can skate clean. She is the World and Olympic champion, she has sooo much experience by now compared to the rest, and if clean will get favorable scoring. 

 

The third spot on the team (barring any injuries/loss in form from Alina and Sasha), will probably be a bloodbath with Anna and Liza fighting it out for who can land the most quads/3As, and Evgenia possibly able to score higher than both if she's squeaky clean. Alena Kostornaia...is a beautiful skater but doesn't seem to get rewarded for it, and might need a few of the more favored ladies/ladies with more quads and 3As to fail. 

[Paskud]

10 hours ago, yuzuangel said:

Unfortunately, I agree. I think Kaori is pleasant to watch, but she doesn't have the tech (no lutz in the SP because of obvious flutz, only one lutz in the FS that gets called), nor does she have the reputation scoring.

I don't think Kaori's situation is that bad. Lilbet scored 75 in SP at worlds with a salchow after all. Kaori isn't Eteri girl, but flip and loop are still competitive.

And remember that she got 73 PCS (!) at worlds for a program with a big pop. She should be okay if she stays cleanish this season.

 

About Lilbet, well, we will see at Shanghai Trophy I guess?

[monchan]

Sasha lost to Kostornaia in JGPF and Scherbakova in Nats so I think anything can happen and change the ranking. Thou if she can skate clean (or even just cleanish), no one can challenge her at the top. Her consistency with quads is outstanding thou. As a medal contender, I'll put her, Alina, and Rika in first league, given their condition I've seen so far this ss (Alina skated ver well in test skate and Rika's 3As condition is much better than last ss). 2nd league is Anya, Liza, Evgenia. 3rd league is Kostornaia, Kaori (my 2 fav skaters ). Satoko might belong to this group too, but her condition isn't great in US classic, I must say.

A fall or pop can bring anyone down, and when the gap is close, medals will be decided by judge's magic hand , so I only hope skaters can show their best when it matters. Pls don't flop 

 

Btw I hope to see Kostornaia at Worlds but don't even think she will be selected 

[Deliverpooh]

Japan Open: the two best scores from Team Europe were Trusova and Zagitova

[Old Cat Lady]

If you take Japan Open seriously - and it does have ISU judges and tech panel - Zagitova is more competitive than I originally thought.

 

Her PCS rose since world's and, in spite of losing levels in 2 elements, which she doesn't usually do, there was only a 6.12 point difference in the free skate, which she almost makes up in the SP. Granted, Trusova had several messy landings and a lost level in her skate so she could shut the door completely by skating cleaner, but JPN Open shows that she needs to skate clean even with her giant tech gap.

 

Zagitova

World's SP score = 82.08

JPN Open actual score = 154.41

JPN Open FS projected score with lvl 4 everything = 155.92

Projected total score = 238

 

Trusova

Ondrej Nepela projected SP score w/8.5 pcs = 76.71

JPN Open actual score = 160.53

JPN Open projected FS score if clean = 168.51

projected total = 245.22

*Note.  Trusova's projections are based on a rise in her PCS as the season goes on.  Her PCS actually went down from her score at Ondrej Nepela FS in spite of it being a fluff competition.

 

With the ISU being criticized so much for not having a "woman" win (lol, that a 17 yr old is the "woman" amongst girls) and the desire to promote rivalry, I wonder if there will be a push to keep Trusova's PCS down (fairly, but that's a different discussion)

 

Even if Kihira skated cleanly, Zagitova would have beaten her in spite of two 3 axels (proj score=152.58). If you replace her 2a with a 3lz and use her worlds FS PCS, I end up with a projected fs score of 156.17

 

eta:

btw, Kihira's high SP score is from WTT = 83.97

83.97+156.17 = 240.14.  I'm assuming she'll do a lutz instead of a 2axel when her injury is healed.  However, WTT scores tend to be high.