xeyra

I was just reading this. Quite a few of these points have been raised in our discussion here, and whether this strategy will end up working in order to actually break his record. Is this just a fan blog talking about Chopin's choice much like we do here or is it something more official (like a skating/sports professional writing a column)?

Maybe in some pictures he can look much younger than he is but I don't think it applies here. He looks like a young man in a well fitted suit (it looks even better in color, for me personally), who just happens to be as tall as the ladies.

That second picture is so gorgeous.

Slouching!Yuzu in a terrible suit. Mai looks gorgeous! And Shoma's rocking that suit. See, Yuzu, even your kouhai has better fashion sense than you do.

No idea!

Javi and Miki at FaOI Makuhari

Full translation of Keiji and Shoma's interview for Quadruple 2017. There are some parts here that made me laugh so hard and others that are really sweet about their friendship.

Interview translation I came across today, which I think is interesting in the light of recent discussions. Original video. Edit: Don't know if there's a full translation of the video somewhere.

That's not helping! Wait, maybe it is.... I'm sold on this one now. It's disco-bally enough, white and wouldn't fit me even in my ears but it's the internet so I'll pretend I'm a size S.

Oh God, I have no idea what dress to choose, given my choices of marriage partners! HALP, what fits with smile and mental strength!????

I meant to comment earlier but yeah, I think this is the original version that's the prototype for Chopin 3.0. I think aside from the second half, the main difference for me is how he enters his first two spins, since he actually does some steps/choreography before going into the first spin, which matches the music more. However, I wonder if he's trying to change that a bit so the first half isn't an exact copy of this. Regardless, there's plenty of time still for modifications.

He might be dinged overall in both GOEs and PCS but there's only so low you can make him go with a clean performance before it becomes somewhat ridiculous. Of course, all of this means Yuzu must deliver, most of the time, because he's not only doing something he's done before, with some variation, but he's also using jumps he's done before. And hence lies the inherent risk in Chopin 3.0 to balance out some of its positives: can he be clean with this again and again? Also, this is not exactly the ladies division: will greater consistency increase his GOEs and PCS over time? Especially if others with higher BV also begin to be more consistent (Nathan could land 4Lz and 4F in his SP quite consistently by the end of the season, minus boot issues, and so could Shoma with his layout). But everything has risks. Of course, if he does include the 4Lz at least in his FS, it might prevent those "newer, fresher, younger, harder" attacks you mention anyway. Edit: I just realized we're basically going in circles with all this since we keep making the same points others have made before. I just came across Pamigena's comment earlier that's basically saying what I did here.

Of course, any of these BV situations will pale in comparison to the 122 BV Nathan might have with a 7-quad offering, but I'm not sure it's a sure bet he could land that kind of layout cleanly with positive GOE. As for Shoma, his planned WTT layout was around 107 BV and with an added 4S or 4Lz might put him around 111 or close to 115 BV respectively (if he goes for that). I'm not sure if Boyang will go for something similar to his attempted 4CC layout or if he'd go even further and add two 4Lz alongside the 4Lo (and/or go for 6 quads). His BV either way might be between 111 to 116. If Javi goes for a 4Lo, his initial layout will be slightly lower than Yuzu's last season because Javi doesn't backload as much. Patrick will likely not change his FS BV much (but is adding a 4S to his SP). So all in all, Yuzu will very likely not be able to catch up in BV with the younger generation, but he can try and make the gap a bit shorter from his current 103+. 4Lz provides that and a lot of layout freedom too. So here's crossing our fingers it all works out for him this summer and further on to the Olympics.

Maybe 3A2Lo might be slightly more feasible, even if it's not a particularly high scoring combination. There was the proposal earlier of something like 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4T3T 4T1lo3S 4S 3A2Lo 3A, which would be only a few points lower, at 111.81. Or with repeat 4S (112.03). Using 3A2T in these scenarios would lower the BV to 111.26 and 111.48 respectively. To mods: sorry, this did end up turning into a layout convo that probably belongs in the other thread.

115.44

I didn't quite see this earlier so I didn't reply then but... personally, my feeling last season was that judges (except the required ones at specific competitions) loved LGC. He got max GOE in his step sequence 4 times! Judges were loving that thing (and/or his pants). They just didn't love Yuzu failing to skate it clean.

What we can take away from all of this, which I'm sure everyone agrees, is that it won't be easy for him. He'll have the most pressure, the most to lose and probably will have to work the hardest to prove something to himself and the judges. And every little point will count. So unless Yuzu knows he can do a 4Lz that can earn him a +2 at the very least in the SP, it won't be mathematically worth it against the scoring he can get on his 4Lo right now.

I still want that 4Lz in both SP and FS, and I've always thought that the Chopin layout with 4T3T might be in preparation of eventually adding the 4Lz. But after doing the math and all the reasoning behind this kind of strategy, I feel that it's less of a risk to keep the 4Lo if he can assure himself that he can be reasonably clean with that layout. But, well, every strategy has its risks and this one has the additional Chopin 3.0 baggage. Then again, this doesn't preclude him deciding to add the 4Lz by NHK or something, if he loses to Nathan at CoR.

Of course, one could make an argument that leading the SP by 10 points would give him more freedom in the FS too, whereas aiming to keep within the range of others gives more pressure to do well in the FS. And yet, when he's had the pressure to chase this season, he ended up doing better, so maybe that's also a strategy? Edit: All these arguments are only valid IF he upgrades his FS BV reasonably. If he falls too much behind there, it can be relying on other's mistakes too much.

Yeah, making the tables and inserting the elements can be terribly time consuming so I'm not sure I'll finish it tonight. But don't expect fancy graphics from me. All I can manage is to make tables.

And since you can't really have a difference of 20 points in the SP between skaters if everyone goes clean because of the limited elements, which keep the BV reasonably balanced between all (even now there's differences of 1-3 points in BV ranges whereas in the FS there can be over 15 points in difference!), the SP is the ideal place to go for the reliable and aim for clean.

I think @meoima's point might be related to that skating adage: "you can't win it in the SP but you can lose it in the SP". And Yuzu has been very close to losing it in the SP this past season. Score ranges in the SP are a lot lower than in the FS if everyone goes clean.

I haven't done calculations on averages, only best GOE values for my 'fantasy protocols' I've posted in the skating thread, but you can find Shoma's averages last season here. Not sure if anyone has done the same for Nathan or Javi or Patrick. I have the protocols, I could try and do something similar for them once I get home tonight.

Which is why he has to upgrade his BV in a reasonable way somewhere, which might well be his FS. And if he uses his SP to go clean and reliable and keep him at the 110 ish range and even if he doesn't increase it past what this current Chopin BV gives him (51.01, still an upgrade from last season's), he can afford to make those kinds of risks in his FS a bit more. He will never have the highest BV in the field again so all he can do is to keep the difference reasonable so that his GOEs and PCS can still give him an edge. To note: this means I'm hoping for his 4Lz in the FS.

Just to correct/update the values here, if Shoma's SP has the 4F3T in the second half too, his BV would be 53.21. But I do agree Shoma's new layout will be a risk for him and, like any man, there's no guarantee anyone can really go clean. So I'm actually starting to warm up to the idea of having a more reliable SP without the 4Lz, as long as he doesn't allow himself to fall too behind on his BV in the FS as to let that be the difference between him winning or not. He should probably try and get closer to 110 BV for his FS as possible.