Proposed changes for next season

[Xen]

7 hours ago, hoodie axel said:

There's a world of puns, like "Today, in this episode of Golden Pond and Floras" but if I switch to "on Golden pond" it feels like an insult to Karen Chen. >_>

I'll also post this over in Gen Skating chats, since I guess layout guessing games will be starting soon:

Spoiler

So Layouts layouts: app used https://ytse17.github.io/figure-skating-calculator/

Layout and spins decisions are based on their WC 2017 layouts, and +GOEs are kind of based on the skater's jump preference (more GOE on toe or edge jumps)

 

(NOTE: redoing, just noticed that the app has been applying +5 GOE values to +3 GOEs)

Yuzu: 4Lo 4S 4T3T 3F//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A +StSq4 ChSq FCCoSp4 FCCSp4 CCoSp4, +3 GOEs on all non-3F jumps, and +2 GOE avg on other elements=  BV 87.6 Possibly he'll want to swap the 4T and 4S around, and go //4S 3A1Lo3S 3A in second half, but the boost in scores isn't that high, if he goes 4S3T 3A1Lo3S 3A though, it only jumps to 132.46, but the risk of missing combo is higher.

 

Boyang:

4Lz 4T2T 4S 3A// 4T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz3T  +StSq4 ChSq FCCSSp4 CSSP4 CCoSp4, +3 on Toe jumps, +2 GOE on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= BV 88.8

 

Shoma:

4Lo 4F 4T 3Lz //3A3T 4T2T 3A1Lo3F +StSq4 ChSq  FCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, gave +3 on edge jumps, +2 on toe jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= BV 90.60

 

Nathan:

4Lz 4F3T 4F 4S//3A 4T2T 3Lz2T2Lo +StSq4 ChSq  CCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, +3 on toe jumps, +2 on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else = BV 92.2

 

This is pretty much old old data, and I think everyone is capable of executing them. But if we're going also based on how GOEs are judged, other than Yuzu hitting the GOEs I used here, I don't think the other guys will actually hit the GOEs I've listed. Shoma has a slew of +1 GOEs, and if GOE bullets tighten a bit more, I think other than the 3A GOEs matching the ones I gave for this hypo, the rest will actually go lower, as even his 4Lo gets a stack of 0's and 1's. Boyang I think should actually end up around avg +2 GOEs for his jumps (honestly he should also get the first 3 bullets on a normal basis). Nathan I think will get a decent number of +3's, but I foresee GOEs dropping on the combo jumps and his spin GOEs generally avg around +1 GOE now.

 

 

[Murieleirum]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

Hmm....The only guys who could probably score+5 GOEs under the new system, are probably skaters whom even under the old systems got consistently high number of +3 from judges (and specifically must have hit bullets 4, 5, 6, 7). Currently, unless I'm very mistaken, other than Yuzu's 3A and maybe some of his quads (like 4T and 4S), possibly Javi's 4S, and perhaps Boyang's 4Lz jumps, other guys haven't been that consistent. If the skater hasn't even been able to consistently get +2 GOEs from many judges on a panel under the old system, then probably don't even consider the possibility.

 

But that's what I'm saying. Yuzuru's jumps have always been rewarded, even if not as much as we would like. This is why he's been able to win everything he won. Because he did get the high GOE's, because he delivered. Even if getting high GOE's becomes harder, if there is someone who will get those +5's, it's him. I have absolutely no doubt about that. See judges adjusting to the new system for the first competitions - but after december, I am sure 5's will start popping up and guess which skater is gonna get them. 

 

I don't think judges are going to suddently see Yuzuru's jumps as low quality and I don't think they've been holding him down as much as some of you people make it seem! I do believe that he should have won 4CC 2017 and Rostelocom 2018 instead of Nathan, and he didn't win because of crappy judging, but that was mostly because of no gap in PCS - Yuzuru was held back and Nathan was overscored.

 

Ultimately, it depends on Yuzuru and the judges both. You cannot say it only depends on the judges. Because yes, they can do whatever they want, they are often unfair and blind - but not everyone, and usually most keep themselves in the limits of decency. So, if Yuzuru delivers, he will still get rewarded. 

[Xen]

7 minutes ago, Murieleirum said:

 

But that's what I'm saying. Yuzuru's jumps have always been rewarded, even if not as much as we would like. This is why he's been able to win everything he won. Because he did get the high GOE's, because he delivered. Even if getting high GOE's becomes harder, if there is someone who will get those +5's, it's him. I have absolutely no doubt about that. See judges adjusting to the new system for the first competitions - but after december, I am sure 5's will start popping up and guess which skater is gonna get them. 

 

I don't think judges are going to suddently see Yuzuru's jumps as low quality and I don't think they've been holding him down as much as some of you people make it seem! I do believe that he should have won 4CC 2017 and Rostelocom 2018 instead of Nathan, and he didn't win because of crappy judging, but that was mostly because of no gap in PCS - Yuzuru was held back and Nathan was overscored.

 

Ultimately, it depends on Yuzuru and the judges both. You cannot say it only depends on the judges. Because yes, they can do whatever they want, they are often unfair and blind - but not everyone, and usually most keep themselves in the limits of decency. So, if Yuzuru delivers, he will still get rewarded. 

No disagreements with me in regards to Zu, I'm least worried about him. If he wants to break records, without a 4Lz using the layout I have above, if Zu skates clean and gets above 93 PCS (doable), he can break his own FS record again.

 

I'd be more curious how judges score Boyang, since technically he should be getting the first 3 bullets too on most of his jumps. Technically Kolyada, when he's clean, should also be able to deliver on the first 3 bullets, Aliev maaaybe, Jason Brown when on, and Cha Junhwan should be alright usually. I'm more curious how certain other skaters will be impacted, because they can't just hit random bullets anymore, they have to hit specific bullets now. Don't follow US men much, but anyone think Zhou could get higher GOEs than Nathan under new GOE system?

[Lunna]

2 часа назад, Xen сказал:

ve refrained from arguing over at Golden Pond and Floras, but in so far as layout is concerned, the one I'd probably choose if I were Yuzu are:

//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A for my second half 3 jumping pass

-If somehow I miss the first combo, I can immediately switch to 3A1Lo3S and 3A2T for ending, which minimizes loss.

Scoring wise:  4T1Lo3S+3A2T+3A: 34.76

                       4T+3A1Lo3S+3A2T:  34.76

Equivalent in BV, and if +3 across the board in GOEs, both are at 47.51 TES.

Not bad.

I will be surprised if Yuzu will not backload his two safe 3As and if I'm right, now that there's no coefficient so score-wise it doesn't matter to backload 4T or 3A with 3S combo. So if Yuzu will repeat 4T it will be safer to do ... 4T3T//4T 3A1Lo3S 3A2T to avoid BV loss if second 4T will not go well, but I will not put it past him to backload all his combos in the end (he's never gone for safest options after all)

[hoodie axel]

38 minutes ago, Xen said:

I'd be more curious how judges score Boyang, since technically he should be getting the first 3 bullets too on most of his jumps. Technically Kolyada, when he's clean, should also be able to deliver on the first 3 bullets, Aliev maaaybe, Jason Brown when on, and Cha Junhwan should be alright usually. I'm more curious how certain other skaters will be impacted, because they can't just hit random bullets anymore, they have to hit specific bullets now. Don't follow US men much, but anyone think Zhou could get higher GOEs than Nathan under new GOE system?

Boyang: He should be getting them.

Kolyada: Yes.

Aliev: No, his technique is pretty terrible.

Jason Brown: His technique is declining. His 3As should hardly be getting any +GOE under the current one.

JunHwan: Gets too sloppy at times. Let's see.

 

Nathan: Should be getting +3 tops. Pretty average quality toe-jump quads, and not-too-good edge ones. His 4F might get better than +3, though.

Zhou: Let him fix his UR issues. He's one whose performances I've never managed to finish watching.

 

Anyway, I think the top US man soon is going to be Alexei Krasnozhon. At least by the end of the quad, he will be.

 

[asiacheetah]

59 minutes ago, Xen said:

There's a world of puns, like "Today, in this episode of Golden Pond and Floras" but if I switch to "on Golden pond" it feels like an insult to Karen Chen. >_>

I'll also post this over in Gen Skating chats, since I guess layout guessing games will be starting soon:

  Hide contents

So Layouts layouts: app used https://ytse17.github.io/figure-skating-calculator/

Layout and spins decisions are based on their WC 2017 layouts, and +GOEs are kind of based on the skater's jump preference (more GOE on toe or edge jumps)

 

Yuzu: 4Lo 4S 4T3T 3F//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A +StSq4 ChSq FCCoSp4 FCCSp4 CCoSp4, +3 GOEs on all non-3F jumps, and +2 GOE avg on other elements= 131.72 (BV 87.6) Possibly he'll want to swap the 4T and 4S around, and go //4S 3A1Lo3S 3A in second half, but the boost in scores isn't that high, if he goes 4S3T 3A1Lo3S 3A though, it only jumps to 132.46, but the risk of missing combo is higher.

 

Boyang:

4Lz 4T2T 4S 3A// 4T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz3T  +StSq4 ChSq FCCSSp4 CSSP4 CCoSp4, +3 on Toe jumps, +2 GOE on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= 130. 64 (BV 88.8)

 

Shoma:

4Lo 4F 4T 3Lz //3A3T 4T2T 3A1Lo3F +StSq4 ChSq  FCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, gave +3 on edge jumps, +2 on toe jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= 131.25 (BV 90.60)

 

Nathan:

4Lz 4F3T 4F 4S//3A 4T2T 3Lz2T2Lo +StSq4 ChSq  CCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, +3 on toe jumps, +2 on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else = 137. 62 (BV 92.2)

 

This is pretty much old old data, and I think everyone is capable of executing them. But if we're going also based on how GOEs are judged, other than Yuzu hitting the GOEs I used here, I don't think the other guys will actually hit the GOEs I've listed. Shoma has a slew of +1 GOEs, and if GOE bullets tighten a bit more, I think other than the 3A GOEs matching the ones I gave for this hypo, the rest will actually go lower, as even his 4Lo gets a stack of 0's and 1's. Boyang I think should actually end up around avg +2 GOEs for his jumps (honestly he should also get the first 3 bullets on a normal basis). Nathan I think will get a decent number of +3's, but I foresee GOEs dropping on the combo jumps and his spin GOEs generally avg around +1 GOE now.

 

 

You think he will keep the 3F? I've always thought that's the one jump guaranteed to go the way of the Dodo. I see him putting in a 4Lutz because he doesn't go backwards technical wise unless of injury. Somewhere in that mess would be a 4Axel when he gets it.

[Lunna]

43 минуты назад, Xen сказал:

I'd be more curious how judges score Boyang, since technically he should be getting the first 3 bullets too on most of his jumps. Technically Kolyada, when he's clean, should also be able to deliver on the first 3 bullets, Aliev maaaybe, Jason Brown when on, and Cha Junhwan should be alright usually. I'm more curious how certain other skaters will be impacted, because they can't just hit random bullets anymore, they have to hit specific bullets now. Don't follow US men much, but anyone think Zhou could get higher GOEs than Nathan under new GOE system?

I agree. But even more I'm interested in ladies. I'd say Kathleen, Liza Tuk, Gabby can hit +3GOE at least, but what will Med and Zagi get? Med I think has more distance jumps but I will not call it "very good height" if we compare her to Osmond, will her GOEs drop or no? What GOEs Satoko will get? I'd say watching ladies we will need even more popcorn (or alcohol) then before.

[hoodie axel]

In all honesty, I think nothing's going to change. If you got a +3, now you'll be getting a +5. 

[axelnojutsu]

35 minutes ago, hoodie axel said:

In all honesty, I think nothing's going to change. If you got a +3, now you'll be getting a +5. 

yeah, maybe they'll start out conservative for the first couple competitions to test the waters but I don't think it'll ultimately change anything in regards to who gets candies 

[Neenah]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

There's a world of puns, like "Today, in this episode of Golden Pond and Floras" but if I switch to "on Golden pond" it feels like an insult to Karen Chen. >_>

I'll also post this over in Gen Skating chats, since I guess layout guessing games will be starting soon:

  Hide contents

So Layouts layouts: app used https://ytse17.github.io/figure-skating-calculator/

Layout and spins decisions are based on their WC 2017 layouts, and +GOEs are kind of based on the skater's jump preference (more GOE on toe or edge jumps)

 

Yuzu: 4Lo 4S 4T3T 3F//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A +StSq4 ChSq FCCoSp4 FCCSp4 CCoSp4, +3 GOEs on all non-3F jumps, and +2 GOE avg on other elements= 131.72 (BV 87.6) Possibly he'll want to swap the 4T and 4S around, and go //4S 3A1Lo3S 3A in second half, but the boost in scores isn't that high, if he goes 4S3T 3A1Lo3S 3A though, it only jumps to 132.46, but the risk of missing combo is higher.

 

Boyang:

4Lz 4T2T 4S 3A// 4T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz3T  +StSq4 ChSq FCCSSp4 CSSP4 CCoSp4, +3 on Toe jumps, +2 GOE on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= 130. 64 (BV 88.8)

 

Shoma:

4Lo 4F 4T 3Lz //3A3T 4T2T 3A1Lo3F +StSq4 ChSq  FCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, gave +3 on edge jumps, +2 on toe jumps, +2 GOE on everything else= 131.25 (BV 90.60)

 

Nathan:

4Lz 4F3T 4F 4S//3A 4T2T 3Lz2T2Lo +StSq4 ChSq  CCSp4 FCCoSp4 CCoSp4, +3 on toe jumps, +2 on edge jumps, +2 GOE on everything else = 137. 62 (BV 92.2)

 

This is pretty much old old data, and I think everyone is capable of executing them. But if we're going also based on how GOEs are judged, other than Yuzu hitting the GOEs I used here, I don't think the other guys will actually hit the GOEs I've listed. Shoma has a slew of +1 GOEs, and if GOE bullets tighten a bit more, I think other than the 3A GOEs matching the ones I gave for this hypo, the rest will actually go lower, as even his 4Lo gets a stack of 0's and 1's. Boyang I think should actually end up around avg +2 GOEs for his jumps (honestly he should also get the first 3 bullets on a normal basis). Nathan I think will get a decent number of +3's, but I foresee GOEs dropping on the combo jumps and his spin GOEs generally avg around +1 GOE now.

 

 

I don't know what I am doing wrong but I can't replicate your numbers at all.  I am using my own script and when I test the layouts you mentioned, I get much lower scores 

 

Would you mind sharing the detailed scoring for those layout (at least one) so that I can find where I am messing up   

[cirelle]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the judges kept yoyoing between ”It’s a quad! ALL THE GOE!” and ”Is it really ’very good’? I don’t know ’very good’. Let’s just not give that bullet” next season. That’s gonna be... trying.   

[Xen]

4 hours ago, Neenah said:

I don't know what I am doing wrong but I can't replicate your numbers at all.  I am using my own script and when I test the layouts you mentioned, I get much lower scores 

 

Would you mind sharing the detailed scoring for those layout (at least one) so that I can find where I am messing up   

I'm just using that app....nothing manually by hand or via excel sheets. o_O

Gimme a day to redo the layouts via excel sheets.  But essentially, I think due to the GOEs now tied to BVs, he can actually make up for a jumping pass and more via GOEs.

[xeyra]

Yuzu has never cared about BV loss if he REPs on a quad, or he wouldn't have put his 4T3T or 4S3T after his solo jump. But maybe that'll change now that only the 3 last jump passes can count for bonus.

[xeyra]

2 hours ago, cirelle said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the judges kept yoyoing between ”It’s a quad! ALL THE GOE!” and ”Is it really ’very good’? I don’t know ’very good’. Let’s just not give that bullet” next season. That’s gonna be... trying.   

 

The judges will also be adjusting so I expect lots of yo-yo GOEs this first year. Plus, ISU rules aren't very clear on 'very good heigh/distance' or 'serious error' so...

[Neenah]

20 minutes ago, Xen said:

I'm just using that app....nothing manually by hand or via excel sheets. o_O

Gimme a day to redo the layouts via excel sheets.  But essentially, I think due to the GOEs now tied to BVs, he can actually make up for a jumping pass and more via GOEs.

But the app only have +3 to -3 GOE, how are you calculating the new GOE using it?!!!!