General Yuzuru Chat

[yuzuangel]

26 minutes ago, lilsailor said:

but if they had given shoma the gold it would've been a massive

yet if shoma has landed the 3Lz he would have won gold, and Sochi 2014 certainly showed that massive outrage doesn't change results 

[Yukiko Sakae]

I want to buy this Tracing Ice. Yuzuru is so cool

[yuzuangel]

1 minute ago, Yukiko Sakae said:

I want to buy this Tracing Ice. Yuzuru is so cool

 

I can't wait for the FaoI and 2016-17 photobooks to come out 

[moni]

2 hours ago, xeyra said:

 

 

Only if there's no more than 10-15 or so BV difference total across both SP and FS. Anything more and, if both go clean, Nathan's BV might make up for lower PCS/GOEs. So Yuzu does need to raise his BV too. Which he will. How, we shall see. 

 

BV is important but it's nothing if the skater doesn't deliver. For example Nathan in Helsinki. I think Yuzu can afford to have more than 10-15 point lower BV (I'm not saying he should, just that he can).

I remember you did some great statistics about scoring and BVs some time ago, so I'm quite surprised you wrote this. We can compare Nathan at his best (2017 4CC - 7 quads) vs. Yuzuru at his best (2015 GPF - 5 quads):

1. (I know these are different events + different years but I just want to show that BV isn't everything, even when Nathan might be overscored and Yuzuru underscored as it was at 4CC, IMHO)

2. hope I didn't mess up the numbers, it's almost 3 a.m. here

 

SP: 

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	47.45	14.36	49.14	110.95
Nathan	53.15	6.43	43.54	103.12
difference	-5.7	7.93	5.6	7.83

 

FS:

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	95.19	25.73	98.56	219.48
Nathan	106.48	9	88.86	204.34
difference	-11.29	16.73	9.7	15.14

 

Overall:

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	142.64	40.09	147.7	330.43
Nathan	159.63	15.43	132.4	307.46
difference	-16.99	24.66	15.3	22.97

we can observe some facts:

•  Yuzu can easily make up the BV disadvantage by getting high GOE+PCS: overall, his BV was lower by 17 points, yet he beats Nathan's score by almost 23 points thanks to GOEs and PCS
•  Yuzu got more than double Nathan's GOE (in SP, in FS and overall, too), the total difference is more than 24 points
•  Yuzu's PCS in both SP+FS  were more than 15-point higher compared to Nathan 

But this was Yuzu in 2015. Since then he has added 4Lo and maybe will upgrade even more for next season. So will Nathan. However, this was an example that Nathan with 7 quads scores lower than perfect Yuzu with 5 quads, so even though Nathan might have 8 or 9 quads overall next season (scary!!!) Yuzu will have 6 or 7, so the difference in BV won't change THAT much and it will be mainly about who skates the most clean. (Shoma and Javier might be more dangerous in terms of upping the BV.) 

 

[Yatagarasu]

40 minutes ago, robin said:

 

I'm not saying he should not raise his BV, I'm just saying he knows his own condition the best and he's the one who has probably thought all of his possibilities through the most.

If at the end of all of his considerations he does not include the 4Lz or does not add any quads to his layout then I'm pretty sure he will have a valid reason.

 

You said above that it is going too far to expect a higher BV, which is why I said that it really isn't, considering the reality of current men's division. This isn't a question of him owing anything to fans, I am just talking about taking a look at the current state of men's division and where the other skaters are and potentially might be. His performance at WTT alone, as well as his current SP layout, show us this. So Yuzuru's health aside, what valid reason do you have in mind then? 

[meoima]

3 hours ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

Not really, it's just facing reality. 

Shoma had a score of 214, 45 for his FS in Helsinki, with negative GOEs for both the 3Lz ! (-2,10) and the 4T (-0, 23). All of this too, with the a double 4T, one in combo, and the 4F in the first part of the program. At WTT already, we were looking at a double 4F, with the 4F combination moved to the second half of the program. That alone is already a significant increase, for a 4 quads program (13, 53 vs 11, 33 which is a full 2, 2 points; to remind you Yuzuru won in Helsinki by 2, 28 points for perspective sake). This is also prior to taking into account the 4Lz, which he is openly practicing and could not only include it but might then up his FS overall count to 5 quads that will then have a 2 x 4F, 4Lz, 4Lo and a 4T. His PCS is right there (94, 42) and will more than likely rise further on, on account of both his growing reputation, and pretty good music choices. 

 

This is just Shoma too, with Nathan raising his game, Javier potentially adding the 4Lo which would enable him to go up to a 4 quads program, etc. So really the increase in BV is simply a necessity. How he chooses to increase that BV is up in the air. Not including the 4Lz leaves him with eliminating one of the 3As, and having 3 quads in the second half but it's not that effective if we take into consideration the above. Then there is the option of the 4Lz plus 3 other quads, to increase stability or 4 if he wants to risk it but the Lz allows for both 3As to stay if that's the case. 

 

His choice of Chopin and the current layout are smart because it leaves him with a, more than likely, sure amount of points in the bag, but again, Shoma with a good SP may be even with him come OG, if not ahead, so the possibility of chasing in the FS is not even remotely implausible. Again, just Shoma. We'll see on the rest. 

 

Expecting him to raise the BV is simply facing where men's skating is at this point in time; there are quite a few excellent skaters. How he'll end up doing it, we'll see early August if we're lucky but there is no doubt whatsoever that he will do it because simply put, he has to. 

I am sure Yuzuru will do 4lz and at least 5 quads in LP. It is just Yuzuru as I know. 

 

Nathan might do just 6 quads if he thinks about his health but again I am not sure his team care about that. So 7 quads LP without transitions is possible.

 

Javi might mess a lot with 4Lo though... as he actually is the one who kept his layout for 4-5 seasons, so skating to a new layout might be quite dangerous.

 

About Shoma, with the way USFA is pushing Nathan, we might see someone finally getting his cheated jumps called fairly. 

[Anya]

Is this recent?

<Redacted, reason: Invasion of Yuzu's privacy>

[KatjaThera]

8 hours ago, Anya said:

Is this recent? 

<Redacted, reason: Invasion of Yuzu's privacy>

 

That's what the text says, at least...

 

"The latest image of Yuzuru Hanyu. It seems he is in Toronto now."

[Xen]

26 minutes ago, meoima said:

I am sure Yuzuru will do 4lz and at least 5 quads in LP. It is just Yuzuru as I know. 

 

Nathan might do just 6 quads if he thinks about his health but again I am not sure his team care about that. So 7 quads LP without transitions is possible.

 

Javi might mess a lot with 4Lo though... as he actually is the one who kept his layout for 4-5 seasons, so skating to a new layout might be quite dangerous.

 

About Shoma, with the way USFA is pushing Nathan, we might see someone finally getting his cheated jumps called fairly. 

I agree with this. Also the more Nate ups his quad count, the less likely he will go clean (if 16/17 is any indication). His jumps are mostly in the first half so he doesn't get the bonus that many of the other men get. When he goes quad happy, his jumps look progressively labored, which probably affects his GOE. In some ways, it is a challenge to Yuzuru to have to face Nate first and early on in the GP series, but a blessing in a sense-I think it'll push Yuzuru, and give him a chance to test the technical waters. 

 

As for Shoma, I'd be more worried for him. He's going against Patrick and Javi I think, in events where he does not have a homefield advantage. If any fed decides to go after japanese fed and skaters in general, I would not want to be Shoma up against Patrick at Skate Canada...

 

 

[yana]

8 hours ago, Anya said:

Is this recent? 

<Redacted, reason: Invasion of Yuzu's privacy>

 

The original blog who posted this photo said, TCC doing simulation at that time. So he watch other skaters before Yuzuru himself doing simulation in group 4 with Junhwan.

[CupidsBow]

4 hours ago, robin said:

 

I'm not saying he should not raise his BV, I'm just saying he knows his own condition the best and he's the one who has probably thought all of his possibilities through the most.

If at the end of all of his considerations he does not include the 4Lz or does not add any quads to his layout then I'm pretty sure he will have a valid reason.

 

But we are also talking about Yuzuru - who hasn raised his BV every season in both programs (except for 2014-15 but his whole season is a retrospective outlier and dumpster fire so). I can't imagine Yuzu for a second thinking he doesn't have to raise his bv at all after last year especially when he sorta already attempted 5 quads in the free (albeit in a 'aw-shit-popped-a-4s kind of attempt) and the only way to have 5 quads without sacrafing a 3A is to bring in a new quad

[Yukiko Sakae]

10 時間前, Yuazzさんが言いました:

Yes, let's believe yuzu and his team. They know what's better plan to do. Just praying everything goes well in Olympic season. 

 

Btw, sorry a bit off topic, but is there another video like this one?

This is really informative. I learn so much about this sport from this video. 

Is this the one you are looking for?

 

 

[xeyra]

15 hours ago, moni said:

 

BV is important but it's nothing if the skater doesn't deliver. For example Nathan in Helsinki. I think Yuzu can afford to have more than 10-15 point lower BV (I'm not saying he should, just that he can).

I remember you did some great statistics about scoring and BVs some time ago, so I'm quite surprised you wrote this. We can compare Nathan at his best (2017 4CC - 7 quads) vs. Yuzuru at his best (2015 GPF - 5 quads):

1. (I know these are different events + different years but I just want to show that BV isn't everything, even when Nathan might be overscored and Yuzuru underscored as it was at 4CC, IMHO)

2. hope I didn't mess up the numbers, it's almost 3 a.m. here

 

SP: 

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	47.45	14.36	49.14	110.95
Nathan	53.15	6.43	43.54	103.12
difference	-5.7	7.93	5.6	7.83

 

FS:

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	95.19	25.73	98.56	219.48
Nathan	106.48	9	88.86	204.34
difference	-11.29	16.73	9.7	15.14

 

Overall:

	BV	GOE	PCS	TOTAL
Yuzuru	142.64	40.09	147.7	330.43
Nathan	159.63	15.43	132.4	307.46
difference	-16.99	24.66	15.3	22.97

we can observe some facts:

•  Yuzu can easily make up the BV disadvantage by getting high GOE+PCS: overall, his BV was lower by 17 points, yet he beats Nathan's score by almost 23 points thanks to GOEs and PCS
•  Yuzu got more than double Nathan's GOE (in SP, in FS and overall, too), the total difference is more than 24 points
•  Yuzu's PCS in both SP+FS  were more than 15-point higher compared to Nathan 

But this was Yuzu in 2015. Since then he has added 4Lo and maybe will upgrade even more for next season. So will Nathan. However, this was an example that Nathan with 7 quads scores lower than perfect Yuzu with 5 quads, so even though Nathan might have 8 or 9 quads overall next season (scary!!!) Yuzu will have 6 or 7, so the difference in BV won't change THAT much and it will be mainly about who skates the most clean. (Shoma and Javier might be more dangerous in terms of upping the BV.) 

 

 

Yes, I did the statistics. They're very enlightening but they're only valid for last season, though.

 

We can't assume everyone else will stay static. You're assuming that if Nathan goes for a 7-quad BV of 122 or Shoma for the potential 112 BV layout he hinted at PIW yesterday and Yuzu stays static on his 103.43 BV, he'll still manage the advantage of GOEs and PCS alone. Not from Shoma, he won't. Shoma is actually his greatest rival at this point because he gets the GOE AND the PCS. What if Javi adds the 4Lo too? And who says Nathan won't improve on his GOEs too? Sure, he won't have much of a program if he goes for 7 quads, but that doesn't mean if he lands them, he won't get enough GOEs to make some difference, especially given the ridiculous 122ish BV he'd have then. 

 

You're also assuming Yuzu will get the same GOEs he got in 2015. I think it will depend on his early season and how clean he'll be, I guess. Worlds was a bit of an anomaly due to his 5th place and skating first in the FS, so we don't really know how his GOEs might have gone if he'd skated last. We also don't know how Nathan would have scored with a 2x4Lz and 2x4F layout, since he couldn't do that one at Worlds, having to improvise. 

 

The fact is, Yuzu can't stay static in an ever changing men's field. Maybe he'll be able to make up for a very large BV difference, yes, but that will be relying on him going foot perfect and everyone else doing some mistakes. Javi tried that last season and we know how it ended. So Yuzu will have to raise his BV somehow. Even if it's not a very high increase, he must raise it. Assuming he won't need to is assuming that everyone else will play safe. 

 

They won't. 

 

Edit: Of course, this requires the higher BV guys to also land their stuff on the day (and during the season, for momentum). There's no guarantee they will. But there's no guarantee Yuzu will either. So it'll be an interesting season to follow, that's for sure. 

 

Edit 2: @moni, the math actually does agree with you, BTW.  But, as I said, this is assuming Nathan's scores would be static. 

[Anya]

I still have to listen to this, but I think this contains some Yuzu stuff 

 

Momo is a big Yuzuru Hanyu fan (who isn’t?) and in fact it was her interest in Yuzuru’s skating that brought her into the figure skating fold in the first place. 

 

http://www.openkwongdore.com/2017/07/17/episode-38-momo/

[Yuazz]

I think this topic about ' Yuzu's BV vs higher BV from the youngsters' will never end. It doesn't mean I was against it. It was interesting. Haha

 

As a fans, I think it was normal to feel anxious or worried whether yuzu's BV would be enough to win him a gold medal against those monstrous BV from the youngsters. But don't worry too much. Yuzu isn't stupid. He knows what's the best for him and what's the good plan to win him second ogm. 

 

Let's not worried too much, it's too soon. We don't even know what's his plan for his FS.