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2 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

When you say H&L Layout, you mean 4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz, yes? Though 3Lz would need to be before choreo sequence here. I expect this is a possibility though I wonder if he might not still try for the 3 quad second half but that would require a triple (3Lz?) in the first half.

 

I don't expect 5 quads or 4Lz. 4 quads will be challenge enough with the lost training time. I do trust him to get in shape, because he can peak very quickly, as Brian has said before. The issue will be more of a lack of repetition with the runthroughs. But there'll be time still for practice even after they get to Korea. 

 

*crossing all fingers* 

 

Yes, yes. 

I suppose he could try for that in the second half but if they choose to do this, I imagine it'll be a question of balancing decisions. The old layout would trigger the muscle memory he has, and it'd be a huge help I imagine, so then they'd probably have to see where he is at with stamina, etc and how all of that works in runthroughs.

 

I don't expect 5 quads either at this point, and I am not sure on the 4Lz. Yuzuru is Yuzuru, and my reasoning is not his :laughing: I imagine the team would advise against it, but who knows. That he peaks quickly is definitely a benefit but it'll take a while with his stamina. 

 

It really would be something if he could do both parts of the TE, provided Japan qualifies. 

I'm crossing everything myself, and braiding the hair. Sigh.

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Everyone is talking about the H&L layout, but how many times did he do that cleanly in competition? Wasn't Helsinki the first time? (I don't really remember NHK, but I think it wasn't perfect?) So I wonder if it's really that big a difference? We don't know what he's been doing in practice and stressing about it too much will only create further meltdowns when he'll announce the planned layouts for Olys with people likely to despair before he even sets foot on the ice. Yuzu is Yuzu, he'll pick whatever he'll feel confident he can do and try his hardest with it. If he succeeds, he'll probably make history, and if not, I hope it'll be the option that will give him the least kuyashii.

 

ETA: As for Nathan's results, didn't he get some... err... great scores last year, too? And then the hype carried on to 4CC but no further? So it's not really new, however you look at it. And even with all that, he didn't get close to the records. And the SP and overall were set with just 4S and 4T, no fancy flips and lutzes and a gazillion quads. Yuzu's biggest rival is still Yuzuru Hanyu.

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This injury does come with a few blessings in disguise (although I wouldn't go as far as to say it is a blessing in disguise as a whole.) Reduced pressure on Yuzu, forcing him to rest and re-preak...

 

Hmm Yuzu is probably still gunning for gold, just bc he is Yuzu, but we have no idea about his condition so it's really premature to speculate on what layout Yuzu will go for

 

I just hope that Yuzu had some time to step back (and see how his competitors have been doing in his absence) to realize he doesn't need 5 quads or the 4Lz to win gold.

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I think the question about 5 or 4 quads will depend mostly on the fact how Yuzu feels about 4Lz. If he still decides to go for 4Lz then he can try 5 quads and there will be no need to YOLO smth if he pops one like last season. Though ideally 4 high quality quads must be enough.

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38 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

Everyone is talking about the H&L layout, but how many times did he do that cleanly in competition? Wasn't Helsinki the first time? (I don't really remember NHK, but I think it wasn't perfect?) So I wonder if it's really that big a difference?

 

It doesn't matter how many times he was clean. It matters that he had ample opportunity to skate it in the first place, which cannot be said for the new Seimei. Yes, it really does make a difference, or landing a new jump in practice would translate into landing a jump in competition, and it does not. It takes time to get into it all. If there's a very good reason why the 4Lz is most likely to get dropped, it is that. He had just the one competition with it, and though he landed it, Yuzuru takes time with his new ones, time he did not have now. He may still choose the new layout because he doesn't like backing down and who knows, he may even choose the 4Lz. Mentally speaking, that may suit him the best but we'll see. It's fun to discuss to pass the time!

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Somehow I can see him keeping the Lz AND dropping it :13877886: But yes, he has always taken a long time to learn a new jump (although the Loop was pretty stable right off the bat because, like Brian said, he overtrained it to the detriment of everything else, but 4S and 4S-3T anyone?)

But with this lack of time, well, I really don't know. He can win without it. It's not like anyone else has been skating lights-out with more than 5 quads, either. The max is 5 and Yuzu with his two 3As should beat a layout with 5 quads and 1 3A anytime. 

The main problem is he's not going to want to drop it. Has he ever dropped an element? But this season he's been making strategic decisions and not his usual impulsive ones, so...

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1 minute ago, yuzuangel said:

Somehow I can see him keeping the Lz AND dropping it :13877886: But yes, he has always taken a long time to learn a new jump (although the Loop was pretty stable right off the bat because, like Brian said, he overtrained it to the detriment of everything else, but 4S and 4S-3T anyone?)

But with this lack of time, well, I really don't know. He can win without it. It's not like anyone else has been skating lights-out with more than 5 quads, either. The max is 5 and Yuzu with his two 3As should beat a layout with 5 quads and 1 3A anytime. 

The main problem is he's not going to want to drop it. Has he ever dropped an element? He'd rather get a whole new program :P 

The only time he dropped an element was Cup of Doom era. And then the other situation is he upgraded his layout :mischief:

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2 minutes ago, yuzuangel said:

Somehow I can see him keeping the Lz AND dropping it :13877886: But yes, he has always taken a long time to learn a new jump (although the Loop was pretty stable right off the bat because, like Brian said, he overtrained it to the detriment of everything else, but 4S and 4S-3T anyone?)

But with this lack of time, well, I really don't know. He can win without it. It's not like anyone else has been skating lights-out with more than 5 quads, either. The max is 5 and Yuzu with his two 3As should beat a layout with 5 quads and 1 3A anytime. 

The main problem is he's not going to want to drop it. Has he ever dropped an element? But this season he's been making strategic decisions and not his usual impulsive ones, so...

As this is not a normal situation,  his layout may not be a made by choice but a necessity. Yuzu is stubborn but not stupid, so he will definitely go with the best layout he knows he is capable of executing at the Olympics

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But Yuzu isn't 19 anymore. His decisions before do not necessarily dictate his decisions now. He chose to have a really unstable element in Sochi (4S) that he missed all season outside of the first and last competitions. He could have that unstable element because of his TES potential then compared to the other men. 

 

These Olympics are something different, his rivals are more and stronger than at Sochi, and he has had no opportunity to test the 4Lz in competition since COR. I cannot imagine a scenario where Orser, or even Yuzu himself, even if relunctantly, would think it'd be a good idea to re-train and use the 4Lz for Olys, not when as a quad it puts double pressure on his right foot. He'll have enough trouble getting the rest of his quads in working order in a layout in time. 

 

Maybe I'm underestimating his crazy level or his recovery level but circumstances have changed since NHK and the lengthier than expected recovery. 

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4 minutes ago, xeyra said:

Maybe I'm underestimating his crazy level or his recovery level but circumstances have changed since NHK and the lengthier than expected recovery. 

 

Certainly but then Yuzuru's mentality still is what it is, and that will play its own role. I primarily mean that he just doesn't like backing down and that it is actually possible his mentality to be negatively affected by a more sensible, 'easier', layout. This is why, like @yuzuangel, I can see the 4Lz both staying and going. After all he could keep the 4 quad layout and switch out the quads. In this way, he keeps his new quad, while retaining the old, 'easier', layout, which would require less stamina. If he is doing really well in practice, he may decide to go for it. 

 

It's why that Team event, and to think I once moaned about it (and I am still not thrilled with it but it suits him now so I'll be a happy hypocrite), is going to come in handy. He may test-run something there, if the opportunity presents itself. 

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