Old Cat Lady

@Legacy and Hope @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @sallycinnamon Oops. just a reminder that there's still one more round. Sorry, the last post was just meant to be an update but you guys still have a chance to catch up if river manages to bomb https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url

any clue how these options for the awards were chosen? seems like there’s no rhyme or reason. i imagine they’ll give yuzu most valuable skater and whoever gets the most votes for newcomer and whoever has the most votes that didn’t already get something for the other categories. thinking of voting for “not yuzu” for 2 of the categories. part of me wonders if they’ll just eliminate any vote that votes the same skater for every eligible category. most of me feels ridiculous for participating in a popularity contest re: origin discussion. when i first saw it, i didn’t like it but i think that was largely because i loved the first costume and it just was nothing like i expected. but as i look at it more, i think i might like it more than the first one. accentuates all his lines better and the design just feels elevated. it’s like something you’d see on a paris runway

Just out of curiosity, I changed all the GOE's for the non-jump elements in Nathan and Yuzu's programs to all 1's and all 5's. There's only a 12-13 point difference, which is less than a decently performed 4 toe. No wonder Yuzu only spends 5 mins a week on his spins.

Same here on all points. Pretty sure I'm going to cancel after this year. The only thing I wonder about is how to get the geoblocked videos to play on TV and if the ISU videos are going to look as good as the NBC ones. My current computer has a lower quality picture than my TV so I can't tell just watching on the computer.

Redoing projections. Same methodology as the men 1 Trusova SP: 2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo* FS: 4s, 4lz, 4t/3t, 2a, 4t/e/3s, 3lz/3lo PCS: 33.92 - Rostelecom SP BV: 123.18 Ave Proj Score 248.37 2 Kostornaya SP: 3a, 3lz, 3f/3t* FS: 3a2t, 3a, 2a, 3f/3t*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz* PCS: 36.17 - NHK FS BV: 107.8 Ave Proj Score 246.99 3 Kihira SP: 3a, 3f/3t, 3lo* SP PCS: 35.8 - WTT FS: 3a, 3a/2t, 3f, 3s, 3f/3t,*, 2a/2t/2lo*, 3lo* FS PCS: 71.49 BV: 102.16 Ave Proj Score 236.75 Alternate layout: SP - 3a, 3f/3t, 3lz* FS - 4s<, 3a/2t, 3f, 3a, 3f/3t*, 3lo/2t/2lo*, 3lz* BV: 109.58 Proj. Score: 242.16 I put Kihira above Scherbakova in spite of a lower projected score because Scherbakova has gotten a lot more < or ! calls. Kihira also doesn't have her layout maxed out so I did a projection with that - since it looks like all the videos of Kihira's 4s are under rotated, I calculated with 4s< with GOE -1. 4 Scherbakova SP: 2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo* FS: 4lz/3t, 4lz, 2a, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz* PCS: 33.98 - Sk Am FS BV: 114.16 Ave Proj Score 238.35 5 Zagitova SP: 3lz, 2a, 3f/3lo* SP PCS: 36.92 - 2019 Worlds FS: 3lz, 2a/3t, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/2t/2lo*, 3f* FS PCS: 71.49 BV: 99.06 Ave Proj Score 234.75 7 Tuktamysheva 229.43 8 You 226.62 9 Medvedeva 226.18 10 Tennell SP: 3lz/3t, 2a, 3f* SP PCS: 34.71 - WTT (?) FS: 3lz/3t, 2a, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3t*, 3f*, 3lo/2t* FS PCS: 71.2 BV: 93.69 Ave Proj Score: 221.19 11 Bell 218.29 12 Miyahara 214.49 Miyahara's was the most difficult because you know she's going to get multiple < but she didn't get the same < calls in both competitions.

Now that we’re heading into GPF, thought I’d redo projections. I changed methodology somewhat and used only Grand Prix events since this is the pool of judges that we’ll see for the important competitions. With the thought that there are natural variances within performances even when clean, I used given scores and then corrected mistakes. I only changed GOE’s for negative and 0 GOE’s. I tried to replace the GOE with a similar element from the same competition - the thought being that I want scores from a realistic panel rather than an “ideal” score. If there wasn’t anything comparable, I tried to replace it with a GOE that they have received before. If a skater lost levels, I used the raw GOE they were given and applied it to the element with level 4 I used the higher BV layout but tried to use GOE’s from the event and then averaged them For PCS, I used the highest PCS received in an ISU competition within the last 2 seasons for each segment. If a skater’s PCS are still on the rise, I used whatever is their highest PCS scoring segment for both their programs or 8.5, whichever is higher. Even then, it is likely low *caveats* Keep in mind, that these scores are likely going to be low. Judges seem to score higher overall when there’s a truly clean program. Judges often judge relatively even though they aren’t supposed to. So once these skaters are in the same competition, the patterns are likely change. Long story short - I likely wasted a lot of time so hopefully it’s at least interesting. THESE SCORES ARE NOT NECESSARILY WHAT I THINK A SKATER SHOULD GET, BUT WHAT I THINK THEY WILL GET. Hanyu - don’t think there’s any need to say much. I, like many, was a little disappointed by double recycling but there’s no question to me that both programs are on a higher level than last year and I’m glad to be able to see them close to their potential. SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* SP PCS: 48.47 - Skate Canada FS: 4lo, 4s, 3lz, 4t, 4t/e/3f*, 3a/2t*, 3a/3t* FS PCS: 96.4 - Skate Canada BV: 139.35 Ave Proj Score 325.3 (Sk Can=326.53, NHK=324.08) 328.62 In orange, is a theoretical score with a better quality 4t/3t in the SP with a GOE of 4.2 and the rest of the GOE’s the same as Skate Canada Chen SP: 4lz, 3a, 4t/3t* (changed SkAm lz GOE to 3 in spite of positive GOE because of clear visible error) SP PCS: 46.51 - IdF FS: 4lz, 3lz/3t, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t*, 3a/2t* PCS: 94.78 - 2019 worlds BV: 140.75 Ave Proj Score 320.616 (SkAm = 321.51, IdF = 319.72) Alternate layout: SP: 4lz, 3a, 4t/3t* FS: 4lz, 4f, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t* Proj. Score: 328.62 Skate America GOE's, SP 4lz changed to "3" Frankly, I think both programs are garbage. Worst SP in 3 years - I actually like Nemesis and Caravan, while not my cup of tea stylistically, was at least choreographed and performed well. Rocket Man, like most rock medleys, has no interpretive depth. But judges don’t care and his PCS continues to rise. Notice that Yuzu's current layout with a better 4t/3t projects the exact same score as Nathan's 5 quad layout with the 4lz fixed to 3 (3 is higher than his average jump GOE but lower than his highest). Really, this comes down to the makeup of the panel and who can execute better - not just being clean, but who can have smoother landings, avoid snow and turnouts, project better on the performance, etc. all the details will matter. Although realistically, Nathan has the edge in a 5 vs. 4 competition because this projection isn't taking into account his PCS rise and a quad has a tendency to get a higher GOE. Shoma Uno. SP: 4f, 4f/2t, 3a* SP PCS: 46.5 - 2018 Lombardia FS: 4s, 4f, 4t/2t, 3a, 4t*, 3s/3t, 3a/e/3f* FS PCS: 92.88 - 2019 4CC BV: 135.78 Ave Proj Score 302.66 Had to do a lot of guessing because there were so many mistakes. But even with degrading of quality all around, if he can land the jumps, he’s still the 3rd best skater (I didn’t do projections for Zhou or Kolyada since they didn’t skate the GP) He says that he wants a coach that will support him emotionally rather than for technical expertise. I think that there’s a difference between needs and wants and Lambiel is a terrible choice for his coach. If all he wants is emotional support, he would have been better off with coach Fluffy, but it might not have been his decision. Lambiel currently has a talented skater that’s regressed and a bunch of skaters that are never going to be at Shoma’s level. In the short term, Lambiel is better than nothing - Shoma’s regressed in his steps and spins and Lambiel can at least get those back to their previous level but Lambiel isn’t good at teaching anything that Shoma wasn’t already good at last year. Long term, hopefully Shoma finds someone who can actually help him improve from his previous level. Alexander Samarin SP: 4lz/3t, 4f, 3a* FS: 4lz/3t, 4f, 4t, 3a, 3a/2t*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo* PCS: 44.12 - 2019 Europeans FS BV: 136.63 Ave Proj Score 298.78 For whatever reason, this is the one Russia is giving the push. Other than the 4lz, his GOE’s are pretty low for a top skater. While immensely talented, he seems just as inconsistent as Kolyada, Kolyada has a higher scoring potential, and Kolyada places highest of Russian men at worlds. But I guess the Russian fed is sick of waiting for Kolyada to fulfill his potential and figured they’d start from scratch with a new one and hope for better. Boyang Jin SP: 4lz, 4t/3t, 3a* SP PCS: 42.32 - 2019 4cc FS: 4lz, 4t/2t, 4t, 3a/e/3s, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3f* FS PCS: 84.3 - 2019 4cc BV: 134.54 Ave Proj Score 290.62 Currently only does 3 quads in his FS. Has lower PCS and GOE’s than Chen in spite of bigger jumps, comparable and sometimes better spins and footwork. But he’s also much less consistent which can contribute to this. I’m going to be optimistic and say that these will rise if he can string together cleaner competitions. Part of me thinks he should be higher than Samarin because of a bigger jump arsenal and being able to perform better on the big occasions. Dmitry Aliev SP: 4lz/3t, 4t, 3a* SP PCS: 43.3 - 2019 Lombardia FS: 4lz, 4t, 4t/3t, 3f, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo/e/3s* FS PCS: 86.36 - 2019 Cup of Russia BV: 134.78 Ave Proj Score: 288.63 Has plateaued. Was my favorite Russian man. I love the fluidity of his movement but his programs are rather mediocre this year. His LP especially is ill suited to his skating. Aymoz SP: 4t, 3lz/3t, 3a SP PCS: 44.65 - 2019 AC FS: 4t, 4t/2t, 3a, 3lo, 3a/3t*, 3f*, 3lz/e/3s* FS PCS: 89.8 - 2019 AC BV: 122.82 Ave Proj Score: 285.23 Programs jam packed with transitions of varying levels of success. Jumps are frequently sloppy, which detracts from the presentation. Higher scoring potential than Brown because of the quad but Brown does everything else better. I personally don’t like either of their LP’s. But he seems to be the one on the rise. Jason Brown - 272.56. Didn’t go into as much detail because I don’t consider him a real medal contender right now. It’s unlikely that enough skaters will implode on the world stage for him to slip onto the podium and he’s prone to implode himself. His LP is terrible. Yes, it looks good because his skating is beautiful but the program itself is not interesting.

I noticed gala videos being copyright stricken on Youtube by NBC. As far as I know, NBC doesn't broadcast any gala programs. Am I wrong? I don't see anything about gala here and it's not on my NBC Gold. https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2019/10/02/figure-skating-season-broadcast-schedule/

Well I didn't do any better. I called him Andrei. I thought about giving you the points since I was 90% sure I knew what you meant but wasn't sure if that would be fair to everyone else. I'm going for a couple upsets for GPF predictions. I'm in the middle of the pack so the only way for me to have a shot at catching River is for something unexpected to happen.

Oh dear. Brain fart. Corrected my post. Thx In that case, if Igor is a diminutive of Ivan, let me know. AFAIK, they're separate first names.

This is the current standings for the overall. Since not everyone participated in every event, I did both a total and an average based on event results (omitted qualifying scores since high score potential skews averages too much) Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying river 220 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 Legacy and Hope 213 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 sallycinnamon 211 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 airi 209 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 Old Cat Lady 205 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 LadyLou 199 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 Paskud 190 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 mercedes 181 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 TeaFrida 177 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 Louitunes 171 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 ralucutzagy 138 22 27 26 32 31 Sukigirl 91 31 33 27 Sayu93 80 24 26 30 Figure_Frenzy 77 22 26 29 Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Sukigirl 30.33 31 33 27 river 29.67 28 19 28 34 32 37 Legacy and Hope 28.83 31 23 31 25 31 32 airi 27.83 23 24 30 32 33 25 ralucutzagy 27.60 22 27 26 32 31 sallycinnamon 27.50 32 22 28 23 29 31 Old Cat Lady 26.83 22 21 32 23 32 31 Sayu93 26.67 24 26 30 Paskud 26.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 LadyLou 25.83 31 20 30 25 22 27 Figure_Frenzy 25.67 22 26 29 mercedes 24.50 25 21 30 24 23 24 Louitunes 22.50 22 23 17 20 23 30 TeaFrida 22.17 18 25 22 23 21 24

@LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon A lot to cover in this edition of the GPF game. Firstly, your forms for GPF predictions. Just a reminder that I purposely omitted the men's predictions to minimize "fear of jinx" from impacting the game. Although, I fear TSL just gave Yuzu the kiss of death by predicting him to win - have they ever made a correct prediction? https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url Entrants: Men - Hanyu, Chen, Aymoz, Samarin, Aliev, Jin Ladies - Trusova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Zagitova, Kihira, Tennell Dance - Papadakis/Cizeron, Hubbell/Donohue, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Stepanova/Bukin, Gilles/Poirier, Chock/Bates Pairs - Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro NHK SCORES Louitunes is the only one to correctly guess Yuzu's ex, Sayu93 is the only one to correctly answer BQ4, River got 11 of 12 medalists correct which is the most in the game so far and the most I can recall in any prediction game. Louitunes, I'm guessing you meant Stepanova/Bukin for silver in dance but since you wrote Alexander/Igor I couldn't give you the points since Bukin's first name is Ivan and there was no last name written. If Igor is a diminutive of Ivan, someone let me know. eta: Corrected Bukin's 1st name ETA: Made a mistake in scores. Corrected table - let me know if you see anything weird. Spreadsheet with everyone's answers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SfMFOLSDMgH42bE40fNxVfMW9Wac0JZvIatMgHmSDik/edit?usp=sharing Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points mercedes 6 5 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 24 TeaFrida 4 5 4 9 2 0 0 0 0 24 airi 4 5 5 9 0 2 0 0 0 25 Paskud 3 5 4 9 2 2 0 0 0 25 LadyLou 4 5 5 9 0 2 2 0 0 27 Sukigirl 3 5 6 9 2 2 0 0 0 27 Figure Frenzy 4 9 5 9 2 0 0 0 0 29 Louitunes 4 9 5 6 2 2 0 0 2 30 Sayu93 4 5 6 9 2 0 2 2 0 30 Old Cat Lady 4 9 5 9 2 2 0 0 0 31 ralucutzagy 6 5 5 9 2 2 2 0 0 31 sallycinnamon 4 9 5 9 0 2 2 0 0 31 Legacy and Hope 3 9 5 9 2 2 2 0 0 32 river 6 9 9 9 2 2 0 0 0 37 Men's Podium 1. Hanyu 2. Aymoz 3. Sadovsky 4. Voronov Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaya 2. Kihira 3. Zagitova 4. Yokoi Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Moore-Towers/Marinaro 3. Mishina/Galliamov 4. Efimova/Korovin Dance Podium 1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Stepanova/Bukin 3. Guignard/Fabbri 4. Fear/Gibson BQ1: Which GP event will have the highest cumulative score among champions? NHK: 998.62 BQ2: Will we see an attempt in competition of either 4 axel, 4flip, or 4 lutz by Yuzu? No BQ3: Will we see any new records for margin of victory? No BQ4: In ice dance, will any of the medalists place behind a non medalist in either portion? Yes - Bronze Medalists Guignard/Fabbri were 4th behind Fear/Gibson in the FD BQ5: What will Yuzu skate to as his main gala program (as opposed to a short encore)? Haru yo koi NHK Answer Key GPF Qualifying Scores No one predicted Boikova/Kozlovskii scoring higher than Sui/Han and most of us either under estimated the ice dance inflation or guessed a men's WR so none of us guessed the correct combo of world records. If you picked Zhou as one of your qualifiers, I used your first alternate for men's qualifiers since Zhou withdrew. ETA: your answers are on the 1st and 2nd page of this thread Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 Total Points sallycinnamon 8 10 10 12 6 0 46 LadyLou 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 Old Cat Lady 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 TeaFrida 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 river 8 10 6 12 6 0 42 airi 8 10 8 10 6 0 42 Legacy and Hope 6 10 6 12 6 0 40 Louitunes 6 6 8 10 6 0 36 mercedes 6 8 8 6 6 0 34 Paskud 4 8 8 10 4 0 34 GPF Qualifying Answer Key 1.Who will qualify for the finals. (2 points for each correct) Men - Hanyu, Chen, Aymoz, Samarin, Aliev, Jin Ladies - Trusova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Zagitova, Kihira, Tennell Dance - Papadakis/Cizeron, Hubbell/Donohue, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Stepanova/Bukin, Gilles/Poirier, Chock/Bates Pairs - Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro 2.Who will be the top qualifier in each discipline? If there is a tie in points for placement, I will use highest total score as a tie breaker. (2 points for each correct) Hanyu - 322.59 Tusova - 241.02 Boikova/Kozlovskii - 229.48 Papadakis/Cizeron - 226.61 3. Which disciplines will have a new world record by the end of the series? (2 points total) Ladies: Trusova - Total 241.02, FS 166.62 / Kostornaya - SP 85.04 Pairs: Sui/Han - SP 81.27 Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron - Total 226.61, RD 90.03 (also 88.69 @ IDF), 136.58

Sorry for the delay, but here's the form for NHK https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScXofzmHHZNfoRdrnf-1Rr4kU86Iri3-HWnWZfwMQA9F6Safg/viewform?usp=pp_url NHK Entrants: http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111939.htm Results for Rostelecom. We have a 3-way tie for 1st place. Sorry Mercedes, still no paper medal for you Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points airi 3 7 6 9 2 2 2 0 2 33 Paskud 7 7 6 9 0 0 0 2 2 33 Sukigirl 3 9 6 9 2 0 0 2 2 33 Old Cat Lady 4 9 2 9 2 2 2 0 2 32 ralucutzagy 6 7 6 9 0 0 2 2 0 32 river 6 5 6 9 2 0 2 0 2 32 Legacy and Hope 3 7 6 9 0 0 2 2 2 31 sallycinnamon 7 9 2 9 0 0 2 0 0 29 Figure Frenzy 3 4 6 9 0 0 2 0 2 26 Sayu93 3 3 5 9 0 2 0 2 2 26 mercedes 6 9 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 23 Louitunes 1 4 7 5 0 0 2 2 2 23 LadyLou 2 5 2 9 2 0 2 0 0 22 TeaFrida 0 7 3 9 0 0 0 2 0 21 Answer Key Men's Podium 1. Samarin 2. Aliev 3. Ignatov 4. Uno Ladies Podium 1. Trusova 2. Medvedeva 3. Bell 4. Miyahara Pairs Podium 1. Boikova/Kozlovskii 2. Tarasova/Morozov 3. Hase/Seegert 4. Ziegler/Kiefer Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Gilles/Poirier 3. Hurtado/Khaliavn 4. Kaliszek/Spodyriev BQ1: Who will get the most points on a single element? Samarin - 21.12 points - 4lz/3t in FS BQ2: Will Trusova beat her final PCS personal best by at least 1 point in either program? No BQ3: Will any champion win the PCS but lose the TES? No BQ4: In any of the disciplines, will there be a new record for largest point margin between 1st and 2nd? No BQ5: Will anyone have more than a 3 placement difference between the SP/RD and the FS/FD Yes Denis Vasilijevs SP:5th, FS:10th Morisi Kvitelashvili SP: 9th, FS:5th Yuhana Yokoi SP:10th, FS: 5th Alexia Paganini SP:4th, FS:9th @sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida@Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy

yup

Also the only one to predict Han Yan for silver

I think this works against Alyssa. The only advantage she has over the Russian quadsters is the point gap (and subsequent momentum) she can create with her 3 axel in the short.

I have no issue with figures not being popular for viewership. Most Olympic sports are not popular. If it was an added event without taking away from anything else, it wouldn't detract from other events while adding to the careers of skaters who don't currently get rewarded under the current system. At worst, it's stagnating rather than being counterproductive. At best, it helps promote the sport because suddenly more people in the sport can be competitive and an Olympic medal is one of the biggest growers of a sport. The little I heard about the artistic and technical program, is that there is merely more of an emphasis on certain aspects of the sport in one vs the other rather than a complete exclusion of half the sport. We already have required elements in all phases of sport so not sure why this makes a difference for the sport's appeal. Like I said, it sounds like it's structured sort of like the SP vs. FS today except a little more extreme with PCS being weighted differently. I don't see anyone outside of Russia voting for this either unless they make deals with Feds that have little to no chance in the ladies field. On principle, with the way skating is today, I don't really see a legitimate sporting reason to ban quads in the short unless they want to limit tech in general for all disciplines with the intent of rewarding quality in one phase while rewarding technical progression in the LP. It doesn't make sense to have different standards for men vs. women and I would also equalize the PCS factorizing between genders. I personally would actually like to see them simplifying the SP and having required jumps like in juniors - this way, people can't hide their weaknesses their whole career and truly complete skaters can get more of a reward. Though from a viewership perspective, banning the quads makes sense because the limited tech in the SP is the only thing that let's people continue to pretend that non-quadsters are competitive

Of course, no matter what system, clarity, consistency, and accountability are ideal and necessary for legitimacy. Outside of even more tiresome political talk, I'm personally not against figures coming back or being a separate event, nor does it bother me if people who win them aren't good performers since that's not what's being tested. It tests a whole different set of skills than what current figure skating is so it is almost an entire different event - sort of like the way balance beam and uneven bars require very different skills to excel. At the very least, figures (and synchro) being separate medal winning events makes more sense than the farce of a team event that we currently have. But if someone were able to medal in figures, artistic, and technical program, they really would be deserving of an "all around" title. However, figures would not revive a lot of the lost skating elements unless they change the rules to require them (and at which point, it isn't really figures anymore) and is not an answer to one issue that the "artistic" event is meant to help with - which is viewer popularity. The likelihood is that only medalists in figures would even get televised - probably only gold medalists and whoever's from your country. And if it becomes a requirement for regular competition again, it would also hold back technical development, which is the other big audience appeal factor of the sport (not that I personally would miss it, but it is important for a certain faction of the audience, making it important from the ISU perspective) A large part of me wonders if the real motivation behind the separate artistic/technical events is just for more medal mongering at the Olympics. When looking from the ISU perspective as well as skater benefit, it makes sense. The Olympics is the stage in which the sport gets the most exposure so it might help increase popularity and more skaters would benefit more from their lifetime of hard work. However, it just "feels" wrong to me - like it cheapens the medal, but that's not a rational reason

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida@Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy TeaFrida is the only one to have guessed 2 of the men's medalists correctly. If you got a 0 for the men's predictions, don't worry - you weren't alone. Results in order of high score: river 5 6 6 9 2 0 2 2 2 34 airi 0 6 9 9 2 0 2 2 2 32 Sukigirl 5 5 6 9 2 0 0 2 2 31 Paskud 3 5 6 9 0 2 2 0 2 29 ralucutzagy 3 5 6 6 2 0 2 0 2 26 LadyLou 3 5 6 5 2 0 2 2 0 25 Legacy and Hope 0 6 6 9 2 0 2 0 0 25 mercedes 5 4 6 3 0 0 2 2 2 24 Sayu93 3 5 4 6 2 0 2 2 0 24 Old Cat Lady 2 5 6 6 0 2 0 2 0 23 sallycinnamon 3 4 9 5 0 0 2 0 0 23 TeaFrida 6 5 6 0 2 0 0 2 2 23 Figure Frenzy 0 4 6 6 2 0 0 2 2 22 Louitunes 2 1 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 20 Answer Key: Men's Podium 1. Boyang Jin 2. Han Yan 3. Matteo Rizzo 4. Keegan Messing Ladies Podium 1. Anna Scherbakova 2. Satoko Miyahara 3. Elizaveta Tutkamysheva 4. Young You Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Pen/Jin 3. Ilyushekina/Bilodeau 4. Della Monica/Guarise Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Chock/Bates 3. Fournier Beaudry/Soensen 4. Wang/Liu BQ1: Will the men's or ladies' medalists have higher FS scores before factoring (will use raw PCS) Men - 372.83 (Ladies had 360.82). The men pulled ahead largely on the back of Boyang's resurgence and Scherbakova getting ! called on all 3 lutzes BQ2: Who will have the highest raw PCS across both programs? Sinitsina/Katsalapov - 93.83 total BQ3: Which champion will win by the smallest margin? Dance - 1.35 points BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE on a spin (includes dance, pair, sbs, and singles spins) Satoko Miyahara FS - layback - 4.44 BQ5: Will the men or ladies have more < and << Ladies had 3 times as many carots called at 45 to 15 for the men

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida Here's the new form for Rostelecom. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe5PtdxW6mjjTiEOTapDOa1o0bYa-LUTer6im7AOSe6tVVIjg/viewform?usp=pp_url Here's the entry list http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111936.htm eta: Looks like I missed some people! @Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy

In addition to what shanshani and sweetwater already said, lighting, ice condition, layout changes, difficulty of layout, change in skating skills, and even the size of the rink. Pretty much anything outside of a skater's normal conditions when building the muscle memory can affect the ability to land a jump. I read that Shoma actually changed the position of his blade to help him land the 4 loop, but I think it eventually caused other issues so I'm guessing he doesn't do that anymore, which explains why he no longer attempts the loop. Nathan's only ever attempted/landed the loop once in competition and I get the feeling it was more to get the "only man to land every type of quad" milestone. I read that he hasn't practiced it in long time, though that might be fan speculation. It's possible that he quit doing it more as a preventive measure since he had that hip surgery. I think he was also slightly lighter in 2017 than he is now. Or maybe it's the quad that's most difficult for him and so he just can't do it with the demands of the new FS format. Or it could be simply that after taking a break from that element, he hasn't been able to successfully rebuild the muscle memory. When I first heard about the artistic and technical program split, just like most of the fandom, I thought it was so stupid. but the more I think about it, I'm warming up to it. If it's the way @KatjaThera described it, it doesn't seem like it would be that different from the SP vs. FS. The "technical" program would be jump heavy, like the FS already is. The "artistic" program would limit the ability to win by pure BV and provide relatively greater reward to quality of skating, like the SP already does. Both would contain aspects of both, but weight certain aspects more heavily. Theoretically, this provides a more competitive format for skaters like Brown and would be a good avenue for more experienced skaters who may be losing their jumps but peaking in other aspects. And older ladies won't have to be pushed out of the sport every few years when their bodies no longer allow them to keep up with the baby quadsters. Ladies will actually have enough time to develop into complete skaters and build a relationship with the audience. We don't have to constantly make drastic changes depending on whether high tech or skating quality is the flavor of the month. In the men's thread we're discussing the impact of multiple quads on the body - skaters will then have a choice in how much wear and tear they're willing to put their body through. This also means that dying elements can get a chance to be revitalized in the sport. I would love for a MITF requirement to be added back into skating. They're one of the best tests of edge quality, control, and body line. And skaters won't have to choose between actual skating vs. mugging/posing and bad dancing (which is apparently what the choreo seq currently rewards) The format wouldn't be all that different from gymnastics or swimming or track - which has separate events for different types of skills as well as medals for an "all-around" to reward athletes that excel in all aspects. Obviously, as in with all sports, in order for both programs to have legitimacy, they need criteria for winning to be standardized and transparent. And I really, really hope, they come up with a more athletically respectable name than the "artistic" program

Yup. Still 1.5 hours until ice dance starts. And even if you're late, it would only disqualifying you from answering questions for that discipline. The only purpose of the time limit is so no one gets an unfair advantage. btw, I already wrote up GPF prediction form but I excluded the men's podium predictions because it's a big event and at the last big event involving Yuzu, there was a lot of abstention for fear of jinx and the ones who did predict felt guilty for the jinx. But there are a lot more bonus question's to make up the difference. If everyone wants me to put the men's podium prediction back on the form, let me know.

I normally go purely by point potential + form and a peek at ISU best scores unless it's ice dance and I'm too lazy to even look for results so I just pick whatever names I recognize. But since the men's event is a complete crapshoot and my other favorites have no shot at GPF, I picked Keiji to win. Trying to use whatever cosmic force I can muster to will him to the GPF.

If that's true, then it makes me like Raf more

I agree. Though his latest statements are so obviously ridiculous that I think it's actually poor strategy because it makes you question everything he says. But then again, I do wonder if some fans are more informed about skating culture that a lot of the judges so maybe the judges do fall for it. That being said, I think a quint is more likely for Nathan than a 4axel - as in, no way in hell are either happening but he could probably do a quint on a harness eventually. The 4axel BS has been around for years but the quint talk is clearly in response to the buzz around Yuzu.

I did think about the devaluation of quads in pairs but I don't know as much about pairs or how people other than Duhamel (who hates it) feel about the change. I'm not sure if there was any incident that caused the move to it or if it's a purely preventive measure based on speculation. The one thing about pairs is that even at the simplest levels, I think it's still more dangerous than singles. Otoh, when I think about the major pairs injuries, they've all been during lifts and spins rather than throws and twists so, at least based on history, it doesn't make sense to limit 2 but not the other 2 (though obviously I'm open to being corrected since I didn't follow the sport for over a decade) The 4 axel devaluation is one of the things I'm super salty about with the change in system so I guess that's one of the reasons I'm hesitant to encourage devaluing all the quads. Though my main source of salt is it's devaluation in relation to the other jumps. Before they make changes to the system, I think they need to gather a group of top level skaters and coaches from different nations to determine the difficulty of, not only the BV of elements, but, for example, doing a lvl 4 spin at +5 GOE vs. a 4 Lz at +2 GOE and making their final value more relational to each other. Currently, there are significantly fewer skaters that are able to do a +5 GOE lvl 4 spin than are able to do a +2 GOE 4lz, yet the difference in value is 8.5+ points - well over double! Don't know how values were decided for the various versions of COP/IJS, but retired skaters from decades ago really don't have much insight on these things unless they work closely with current skaters since they never had to do them. I would agree that studies should be done but parameters need to be set *before* researching - Too often people decide on the outcome they want and then look for evidence to support it. Of course, there's still the philosophical debate about an acceptable level of risk vs. allowing personal freedom. Fair sporting principle vs. safety. And do we differentiate between "wear and tear" damage vs. danger? To me, pounding quads fall more under the category of greater "wear and tear" while lifts and throws fall under the category of "danger". GOE enhancers like height/distance and speed fall under both depending on the element. A study would also have to include the effects of elements done at different levels. Of course, we also have to be practical - this requires money and ISU isn't even willing to pay extra for fair judging But another thing to think about is that with experience, people find better ways to train so theoretically, people could jump quads more safely in the future. I also thought about the ethics of minors doing dangerous elements. With adults, I have a general principal (in life in general) of, give them the information and let them decide if it's worth the risk. Children can't be held to that same standard. You can try to discourage it by banning it in juniors but they're still going to be training them in order to compete once they reach seniors, though I suppose in training people can take safety measures to minimize risk. I'm not going to refute as I haven't looked into it myself. But it's pretty sad if the the 2nd year really is the optimal year of competitiveness. But I've always felt that men's skating is overall more interesting stylistically than ladies skating and there's a good chance it's because ladies are so much younger and haven't had time to develop. As for the reputation thing, that's yet another thing that can get fixed with stricter standardization on judging. Honestly, most things that people bitch about could be improved a lot by simply standardizing judging and taking more accountability measures btw, I'm not saying it's unfair to consider Trusova by competitive standards because she's out of juniors (it is a sport, after all), but I disagree that a 15 year old having lower quality aspects of skating is a sign of lack of effort into working on them since, for most people, these things take time and almost no one is good at everything. The Eteri school in general seems rather detail orientated when it comes to elements. They're all about gaming the system. I don't mean to undermine what Plush did do. He was clearly the jumping class of the field in his day and, for the most part, it was the smart move (he really only lost the 2nd OG due to layout stupidity). But he himself has alluded that he didn't push himself to his personal limits. His spins during grand prix were pretty awful last year and I was pissed at the GOE. But they did improve by worlds and I think they're better this year at this time than last year at this time. But I'm mainly comparing them to what they were at the Olympics, when they were absolutely atrocious.