Old Cat Lady

@LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon A lot to cover in this edition of the GPF game. Firstly, your forms for GPF predictions. Just a reminder that I purposely omitted the men's predictions to minimize "fear of jinx" from impacting the game. Although, I fear TSL just gave Yuzu the kiss of death by predicting him to win - have they ever made a correct prediction? https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url Entrants: Men - Hanyu, Chen, Aymoz, Samarin, Aliev, Jin Ladies - Trusova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Zagitova, Kihira, Tennell Dance - Papadakis/Cizeron, Hubbell/Donohue, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Stepanova/Bukin, Gilles/Poirier, Chock/Bates Pairs - Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro NHK SCORES Louitunes is the only one to correctly guess Yuzu's ex, Sayu93 is the only one to correctly answer BQ4, River got 11 of 12 medalists correct which is the most in the game so far and the most I can recall in any prediction game. Louitunes, I'm guessing you meant Stepanova/Bukin for silver in dance but since you wrote Alexander/Igor I couldn't give you the points since Bukin's first name is Ivan and there was no last name written. If Igor is a diminutive of Ivan, someone let me know. eta: Corrected Bukin's 1st name ETA: Made a mistake in scores. Corrected table - let me know if you see anything weird. Spreadsheet with everyone's answers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SfMFOLSDMgH42bE40fNxVfMW9Wac0JZvIatMgHmSDik/edit?usp=sharing Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points mercedes 6 5 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 24 TeaFrida 4 5 4 9 2 0 0 0 0 24 airi 4 5 5 9 0 2 0 0 0 25 Paskud 3 5 4 9 2 2 0 0 0 25 LadyLou 4 5 5 9 0 2 2 0 0 27 Sukigirl 3 5 6 9 2 2 0 0 0 27 Figure Frenzy 4 9 5 9 2 0 0 0 0 29 Louitunes 4 9 5 6 2 2 0 0 2 30 Sayu93 4 5 6 9 2 0 2 2 0 30 Old Cat Lady 4 9 5 9 2 2 0 0 0 31 ralucutzagy 6 5 5 9 2 2 2 0 0 31 sallycinnamon 4 9 5 9 0 2 2 0 0 31 Legacy and Hope 3 9 5 9 2 2 2 0 0 32 river 6 9 9 9 2 2 0 0 0 37 Men's Podium 1. Hanyu 2. Aymoz 3. Sadovsky 4. Voronov Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaya 2. Kihira 3. Zagitova 4. Yokoi Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Moore-Towers/Marinaro 3. Mishina/Galliamov 4. Efimova/Korovin Dance Podium 1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Stepanova/Bukin 3. Guignard/Fabbri 4. Fear/Gibson BQ1: Which GP event will have the highest cumulative score among champions? NHK: 998.62 BQ2: Will we see an attempt in competition of either 4 axel, 4flip, or 4 lutz by Yuzu? No BQ3: Will we see any new records for margin of victory? No BQ4: In ice dance, will any of the medalists place behind a non medalist in either portion? Yes - Bronze Medalists Guignard/Fabbri were 4th behind Fear/Gibson in the FD BQ5: What will Yuzu skate to as his main gala program (as opposed to a short encore)? Haru yo koi NHK Answer Key GPF Qualifying Scores No one predicted Boikova/Kozlovskii scoring higher than Sui/Han and most of us either under estimated the ice dance inflation or guessed a men's WR so none of us guessed the correct combo of world records. If you picked Zhou as one of your qualifiers, I used your first alternate for men's qualifiers since Zhou withdrew. ETA: your answers are on the 1st and 2nd page of this thread Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 Total Points sallycinnamon 8 10 10 12 6 0 46 LadyLou 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 Old Cat Lady 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 TeaFrida 8 10 8 12 6 0 44 river 8 10 6 12 6 0 42 airi 8 10 8 10 6 0 42 Legacy and Hope 6 10 6 12 6 0 40 Louitunes 6 6 8 10 6 0 36 mercedes 6 8 8 6 6 0 34 Paskud 4 8 8 10 4 0 34 GPF Qualifying Answer Key 1.Who will qualify for the finals. (2 points for each correct) Men - Hanyu, Chen, Aymoz, Samarin, Aliev, Jin Ladies - Trusova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Zagitova, Kihira, Tennell Dance - Papadakis/Cizeron, Hubbell/Donohue, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Stepanova/Bukin, Gilles/Poirier, Chock/Bates Pairs - Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Moore-Towers/Marinaro 2.Who will be the top qualifier in each discipline? If there is a tie in points for placement, I will use highest total score as a tie breaker. (2 points for each correct) Hanyu - 322.59 Tusova - 241.02 Boikova/Kozlovskii - 229.48 Papadakis/Cizeron - 226.61 3. Which disciplines will have a new world record by the end of the series? (2 points total) Ladies: Trusova - Total 241.02, FS 166.62 / Kostornaya - SP 85.04 Pairs: Sui/Han - SP 81.27 Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron - Total 226.61, RD 90.03 (also 88.69 @ IDF), 136.58

Sorry for the delay, but here's the form for NHK https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScXofzmHHZNfoRdrnf-1Rr4kU86Iri3-HWnWZfwMQA9F6Safg/viewform?usp=pp_url NHK Entrants: http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111939.htm Results for Rostelecom. We have a 3-way tie for 1st place. Sorry Mercedes, still no paper medal for you Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points airi 3 7 6 9 2 2 2 0 2 33 Paskud 7 7 6 9 0 0 0 2 2 33 Sukigirl 3 9 6 9 2 0 0 2 2 33 Old Cat Lady 4 9 2 9 2 2 2 0 2 32 ralucutzagy 6 7 6 9 0 0 2 2 0 32 river 6 5 6 9 2 0 2 0 2 32 Legacy and Hope 3 7 6 9 0 0 2 2 2 31 sallycinnamon 7 9 2 9 0 0 2 0 0 29 Figure Frenzy 3 4 6 9 0 0 2 0 2 26 Sayu93 3 3 5 9 0 2 0 2 2 26 mercedes 6 9 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 23 Louitunes 1 4 7 5 0 0 2 2 2 23 LadyLou 2 5 2 9 2 0 2 0 0 22 TeaFrida 0 7 3 9 0 0 0 2 0 21 Answer Key Men's Podium 1. Samarin 2. Aliev 3. Ignatov 4. Uno Ladies Podium 1. Trusova 2. Medvedeva 3. Bell 4. Miyahara Pairs Podium 1. Boikova/Kozlovskii 2. Tarasova/Morozov 3. Hase/Seegert 4. Ziegler/Kiefer Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Gilles/Poirier 3. Hurtado/Khaliavn 4. Kaliszek/Spodyriev BQ1: Who will get the most points on a single element? Samarin - 21.12 points - 4lz/3t in FS BQ2: Will Trusova beat her final PCS personal best by at least 1 point in either program? No BQ3: Will any champion win the PCS but lose the TES? No BQ4: In any of the disciplines, will there be a new record for largest point margin between 1st and 2nd? No BQ5: Will anyone have more than a 3 placement difference between the SP/RD and the FS/FD Yes Denis Vasilijevs SP:5th, FS:10th Morisi Kvitelashvili SP: 9th, FS:5th Yuhana Yokoi SP:10th, FS: 5th Alexia Paganini SP:4th, FS:9th @sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida@Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy

yup

Also the only one to predict Han Yan for silver

I think this works against Alyssa. The only advantage she has over the Russian quadsters is the point gap (and subsequent momentum) she can create with her 3 axel in the short.

I have no issue with figures not being popular for viewership. Most Olympic sports are not popular. If it was an added event without taking away from anything else, it wouldn't detract from other events while adding to the careers of skaters who don't currently get rewarded under the current system. At worst, it's stagnating rather than being counterproductive. At best, it helps promote the sport because suddenly more people in the sport can be competitive and an Olympic medal is one of the biggest growers of a sport. The little I heard about the artistic and technical program, is that there is merely more of an emphasis on certain aspects of the sport in one vs the other rather than a complete exclusion of half the sport. We already have required elements in all phases of sport so not sure why this makes a difference for the sport's appeal. Like I said, it sounds like it's structured sort of like the SP vs. FS today except a little more extreme with PCS being weighted differently. I don't see anyone outside of Russia voting for this either unless they make deals with Feds that have little to no chance in the ladies field. On principle, with the way skating is today, I don't really see a legitimate sporting reason to ban quads in the short unless they want to limit tech in general for all disciplines with the intent of rewarding quality in one phase while rewarding technical progression in the LP. It doesn't make sense to have different standards for men vs. women and I would also equalize the PCS factorizing between genders. I personally would actually like to see them simplifying the SP and having required jumps like in juniors - this way, people can't hide their weaknesses their whole career and truly complete skaters can get more of a reward. Though from a viewership perspective, banning the quads makes sense because the limited tech in the SP is the only thing that let's people continue to pretend that non-quadsters are competitive

Of course, no matter what system, clarity, consistency, and accountability are ideal and necessary for legitimacy. Outside of even more tiresome political talk, I'm personally not against figures coming back or being a separate event, nor does it bother me if people who win them aren't good performers since that's not what's being tested. It tests a whole different set of skills than what current figure skating is so it is almost an entire different event - sort of like the way balance beam and uneven bars require very different skills to excel. At the very least, figures (and synchro) being separate medal winning events makes more sense than the farce of a team event that we currently have. But if someone were able to medal in figures, artistic, and technical program, they really would be deserving of an "all around" title. However, figures would not revive a lot of the lost skating elements unless they change the rules to require them (and at which point, it isn't really figures anymore) and is not an answer to one issue that the "artistic" event is meant to help with - which is viewer popularity. The likelihood is that only medalists in figures would even get televised - probably only gold medalists and whoever's from your country. And if it becomes a requirement for regular competition again, it would also hold back technical development, which is the other big audience appeal factor of the sport (not that I personally would miss it, but it is important for a certain faction of the audience, making it important from the ISU perspective) A large part of me wonders if the real motivation behind the separate artistic/technical events is just for more medal mongering at the Olympics. When looking from the ISU perspective as well as skater benefit, it makes sense. The Olympics is the stage in which the sport gets the most exposure so it might help increase popularity and more skaters would benefit more from their lifetime of hard work. However, it just "feels" wrong to me - like it cheapens the medal, but that's not a rational reason

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida@Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy TeaFrida is the only one to have guessed 2 of the men's medalists correctly. If you got a 0 for the men's predictions, don't worry - you weren't alone. Results in order of high score: river 5 6 6 9 2 0 2 2 2 34 airi 0 6 9 9 2 0 2 2 2 32 Sukigirl 5 5 6 9 2 0 0 2 2 31 Paskud 3 5 6 9 0 2 2 0 2 29 ralucutzagy 3 5 6 6 2 0 2 0 2 26 LadyLou 3 5 6 5 2 0 2 2 0 25 Legacy and Hope 0 6 6 9 2 0 2 0 0 25 mercedes 5 4 6 3 0 0 2 2 2 24 Sayu93 3 5 4 6 2 0 2 2 0 24 Old Cat Lady 2 5 6 6 0 2 0 2 0 23 sallycinnamon 3 4 9 5 0 0 2 0 0 23 TeaFrida 6 5 6 0 2 0 0 2 2 23 Figure Frenzy 0 4 6 6 2 0 0 2 2 22 Louitunes 2 1 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 20 Answer Key: Men's Podium 1. Boyang Jin 2. Han Yan 3. Matteo Rizzo 4. Keegan Messing Ladies Podium 1. Anna Scherbakova 2. Satoko Miyahara 3. Elizaveta Tutkamysheva 4. Young You Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Pen/Jin 3. Ilyushekina/Bilodeau 4. Della Monica/Guarise Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Chock/Bates 3. Fournier Beaudry/Soensen 4. Wang/Liu BQ1: Will the men's or ladies' medalists have higher FS scores before factoring (will use raw PCS) Men - 372.83 (Ladies had 360.82). The men pulled ahead largely on the back of Boyang's resurgence and Scherbakova getting ! called on all 3 lutzes BQ2: Who will have the highest raw PCS across both programs? Sinitsina/Katsalapov - 93.83 total BQ3: Which champion will win by the smallest margin? Dance - 1.35 points BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE on a spin (includes dance, pair, sbs, and singles spins) Satoko Miyahara FS - layback - 4.44 BQ5: Will the men or ladies have more < and << Ladies had 3 times as many carots called at 45 to 15 for the men

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida Here's the new form for Rostelecom. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe5PtdxW6mjjTiEOTapDOa1o0bYa-LUTer6im7AOSe6tVVIjg/viewform?usp=pp_url Here's the entry list http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111936.htm eta: Looks like I missed some people! @Sukigirl @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @Figure_Frenzy

In addition to what shanshani and sweetwater already said, lighting, ice condition, layout changes, difficulty of layout, change in skating skills, and even the size of the rink. Pretty much anything outside of a skater's normal conditions when building the muscle memory can affect the ability to land a jump. I read that Shoma actually changed the position of his blade to help him land the 4 loop, but I think it eventually caused other issues so I'm guessing he doesn't do that anymore, which explains why he no longer attempts the loop. Nathan's only ever attempted/landed the loop once in competition and I get the feeling it was more to get the "only man to land every type of quad" milestone. I read that he hasn't practiced it in long time, though that might be fan speculation. It's possible that he quit doing it more as a preventive measure since he had that hip surgery. I think he was also slightly lighter in 2017 than he is now. Or maybe it's the quad that's most difficult for him and so he just can't do it with the demands of the new FS format. Or it could be simply that after taking a break from that element, he hasn't been able to successfully rebuild the muscle memory. When I first heard about the artistic and technical program split, just like most of the fandom, I thought it was so stupid. but the more I think about it, I'm warming up to it. If it's the way @KatjaThera described it, it doesn't seem like it would be that different from the SP vs. FS. The "technical" program would be jump heavy, like the FS already is. The "artistic" program would limit the ability to win by pure BV and provide relatively greater reward to quality of skating, like the SP already does. Both would contain aspects of both, but weight certain aspects more heavily. Theoretically, this provides a more competitive format for skaters like Brown and would be a good avenue for more experienced skaters who may be losing their jumps but peaking in other aspects. And older ladies won't have to be pushed out of the sport every few years when their bodies no longer allow them to keep up with the baby quadsters. Ladies will actually have enough time to develop into complete skaters and build a relationship with the audience. We don't have to constantly make drastic changes depending on whether high tech or skating quality is the flavor of the month. In the men's thread we're discussing the impact of multiple quads on the body - skaters will then have a choice in how much wear and tear they're willing to put their body through. This also means that dying elements can get a chance to be revitalized in the sport. I would love for a MITF requirement to be added back into skating. They're one of the best tests of edge quality, control, and body line. And skaters won't have to choose between actual skating vs. mugging/posing and bad dancing (which is apparently what the choreo seq currently rewards) The format wouldn't be all that different from gymnastics or swimming or track - which has separate events for different types of skills as well as medals for an "all-around" to reward athletes that excel in all aspects. Obviously, as in with all sports, in order for both programs to have legitimacy, they need criteria for winning to be standardized and transparent. And I really, really hope, they come up with a more athletically respectable name than the "artistic" program

Yup. Still 1.5 hours until ice dance starts. And even if you're late, it would only disqualifying you from answering questions for that discipline. The only purpose of the time limit is so no one gets an unfair advantage. btw, I already wrote up GPF prediction form but I excluded the men's podium predictions because it's a big event and at the last big event involving Yuzu, there was a lot of abstention for fear of jinx and the ones who did predict felt guilty for the jinx. But there are a lot more bonus question's to make up the difference. If everyone wants me to put the men's podium prediction back on the form, let me know.

I normally go purely by point potential + form and a peek at ISU best scores unless it's ice dance and I'm too lazy to even look for results so I just pick whatever names I recognize. But since the men's event is a complete crapshoot and my other favorites have no shot at GPF, I picked Keiji to win. Trying to use whatever cosmic force I can muster to will him to the GPF.

If that's true, then it makes me like Raf more

I agree. Though his latest statements are so obviously ridiculous that I think it's actually poor strategy because it makes you question everything he says. But then again, I do wonder if some fans are more informed about skating culture that a lot of the judges so maybe the judges do fall for it. That being said, I think a quint is more likely for Nathan than a 4axel - as in, no way in hell are either happening but he could probably do a quint on a harness eventually. The 4axel BS has been around for years but the quint talk is clearly in response to the buzz around Yuzu.

I did think about the devaluation of quads in pairs but I don't know as much about pairs or how people other than Duhamel (who hates it) feel about the change. I'm not sure if there was any incident that caused the move to it or if it's a purely preventive measure based on speculation. The one thing about pairs is that even at the simplest levels, I think it's still more dangerous than singles. Otoh, when I think about the major pairs injuries, they've all been during lifts and spins rather than throws and twists so, at least based on history, it doesn't make sense to limit 2 but not the other 2 (though obviously I'm open to being corrected since I didn't follow the sport for over a decade) The 4 axel devaluation is one of the things I'm super salty about with the change in system so I guess that's one of the reasons I'm hesitant to encourage devaluing all the quads. Though my main source of salt is it's devaluation in relation to the other jumps. Before they make changes to the system, I think they need to gather a group of top level skaters and coaches from different nations to determine the difficulty of, not only the BV of elements, but, for example, doing a lvl 4 spin at +5 GOE vs. a 4 Lz at +2 GOE and making their final value more relational to each other. Currently, there are significantly fewer skaters that are able to do a +5 GOE lvl 4 spin than are able to do a +2 GOE 4lz, yet the difference in value is 8.5+ points - well over double! Don't know how values were decided for the various versions of COP/IJS, but retired skaters from decades ago really don't have much insight on these things unless they work closely with current skaters since they never had to do them. I would agree that studies should be done but parameters need to be set *before* researching - Too often people decide on the outcome they want and then look for evidence to support it. Of course, there's still the philosophical debate about an acceptable level of risk vs. allowing personal freedom. Fair sporting principle vs. safety. And do we differentiate between "wear and tear" damage vs. danger? To me, pounding quads fall more under the category of greater "wear and tear" while lifts and throws fall under the category of "danger". GOE enhancers like height/distance and speed fall under both depending on the element. A study would also have to include the effects of elements done at different levels. Of course, we also have to be practical - this requires money and ISU isn't even willing to pay extra for fair judging But another thing to think about is that with experience, people find better ways to train so theoretically, people could jump quads more safely in the future. I also thought about the ethics of minors doing dangerous elements. With adults, I have a general principal (in life in general) of, give them the information and let them decide if it's worth the risk. Children can't be held to that same standard. You can try to discourage it by banning it in juniors but they're still going to be training them in order to compete once they reach seniors, though I suppose in training people can take safety measures to minimize risk. I'm not going to refute as I haven't looked into it myself. But it's pretty sad if the the 2nd year really is the optimal year of competitiveness. But I've always felt that men's skating is overall more interesting stylistically than ladies skating and there's a good chance it's because ladies are so much younger and haven't had time to develop. As for the reputation thing, that's yet another thing that can get fixed with stricter standardization on judging. Honestly, most things that people bitch about could be improved a lot by simply standardizing judging and taking more accountability measures btw, I'm not saying it's unfair to consider Trusova by competitive standards because she's out of juniors (it is a sport, after all), but I disagree that a 15 year old having lower quality aspects of skating is a sign of lack of effort into working on them since, for most people, these things take time and almost no one is good at everything. The Eteri school in general seems rather detail orientated when it comes to elements. They're all about gaming the system. I don't mean to undermine what Plush did do. He was clearly the jumping class of the field in his day and, for the most part, it was the smart move (he really only lost the 2nd OG due to layout stupidity). But he himself has alluded that he didn't push himself to his personal limits. His spins during grand prix were pretty awful last year and I was pissed at the GOE. But they did improve by worlds and I think they're better this year at this time than last year at this time. But I'm mainly comparing them to what they were at the Olympics, when they were absolutely atrocious.

Thanks! I would have lost it forever. I really have to be better about not procrastinating. I wasn't being serious either. My comment was just a light hearted jest because we were talking about Plush as psychic. there's still doubts about Beijing, I highly doubt that there'll be anything beyond that

certainly not competitive programs. Nobody knows what's going on with his exhibition programs though the likelihood is that it's either Crystal Memories from this summer or one of his old programs

I wish they could move Thanksgiving. There are more important things going on! I'm committed to visiting relatives who don't have internet. I'll have to watch on my phone It's easy for me to say in hindsight since I wasn't following skating at the time, but looking back, Zhenya was injured and Alina was building momentum, winning everything she entered including beating Zhenya at Euros. I would have picked Alina as well. According to Plush, Yuzu can win 4 Olympics so I guess we have a lot more skating to watch, lol

So annoying to not be able to split paragraphs. Anyway... I think we're just going in circles since I simply don't agree with your logic circle. What makes a quad a more excessive health risk than, for example, a throw jump that goes half way across the rink or a lift where the lady is upside down while 8 feet in the air? I don't see why quads are crossing this line when there are much more dangerous elements that don't. In fact, the GOE system encourages factors that make elements more risky - bigger jumps create more force and are harder to land (causing more likelihood for injury), Lucinda Ruh had some sort of brain damage simply from the speed of her spins, the Biellmann has caused chronic back injuries to multiple skaters, sbs pairs spins are supposed to be done close together yet pair skaters have had brain damage due to skate blades cutting the partners head, etc., etc, etc. Should we limit jumping bigger or spinning faster - a quad is just another iteration of an elevated element. Yuzu, Shoma, Vincent, and Boyang also have spins and step sequences and triple jumps in common. I'm not saying quads don't contribute to injuries, but I don't agree that it should be singled out. As we've already discussed, in all these cases there were other contributing factors - both Boyang and Shoma have outright said that unhappiness contributed to their slumps - mental issues have hurt far more careers than quads. And in Shoma's case, there are no reported injuries this year - his decline this year doesn't indicate anything physical at all and he was still in the mix for the gold last year - he has one bad competition under immense home town pressure and a rough start while in a difficult personal situation and now we're writing him off? He could still medal at worlds and/or 4CC this year. In Boyang's case, we don't know anything other than what we can see - instability in jumps, improvement in other aspects of his skating, the combo having derailed multiple previous skaters. In Yuzu's case, he was sick at NHK and adjusting to ice conditions in Rostelecom - it isn't simply attempting a quad that caused the injury, if so, these injuries would also happen at home when he's jumping them far more often than a competition. In Vincent's case, we don't know if that knee injury had anything to do with a quad - was he even doing them while touring shows? Vincent is also reported to have a difficult home life and multiple huge life changes not to mention he also started out slowly last year. He's the reigning bronze medalists - why are we writing him off already? Sure, there were also injuries in the mix but the sad reality is that, unless an athlete is extremely lucky, injury is a natural part of a sporting career. Honestly, not seeing where we disagree I'm not saying that skaters have maxed out. Most skaters are simply not able to max out every aspect of their skating. That's why you have a variety of skills available - some are good at jumps, some are good at spins, etc. Though as I've said, I do agree that there should be more point value on other elements and more time to do them. But at the same time, the value still needs to reflect the difficulty of doing the element. It's unfairly tilted the other way if you diminish the value of difficult elements to the point that there's no reward at all for increasing difficulty. I think it's a bit unfair to use Trusova as an example of an incomplete skater due to lack of incentive to work on them- she is just coming out of juniors. I don't expect any 15 year old to be a complete skater. The Eteri girls in general do seem to work on all their elements (though not so much the basics) which is a large part of their advantage. As for Nate, it's true that he doesn't generally do transitions into his jumps, but you can see why when he does try - the jumps visibly suffer every time so he's taking more risk for less GOE. Once again, while I agree that the current system should be tweaked a bit, even just judging according to the principles behind it should shift some of the focus. The major problem, as usual, is the judging. If judges actually properly capped Nate for his small, simple jumps and deducted for his often weak landings, the GOE+PCS for an exceptionally executed 3 quad program should still beat Nate's normal 5 quad program. If there were visual examples of what should get a 9 vs. 8. vs 7 in PCS, judges could be held to a clearer standard and skaters would have a better idea of what to do and there wouldn't be the general trend of using PCS as an ordinal rather than reflecting what the skater is actually doing. That being said, I would certainly change things about the current system. Other than cutting a jump for a non-jump element, I would also change the GOE system. The increase in factored GOE for increase in difficulty - By making it a percentage, you are compounding the problem of rewarding BV for BV's sake. Maybe the only tweak needed is that you get a flat +1 per GOE level for each element no matter what (don't take that seriously, just spit balling ideas) - suddenly an exceptionally done spin can be worth as much as a poorly executed axel - the BV would reward the difference in risk/difficulty of elements while the GOE incentivizes quality. A high quality quad is still worth significantly more, but people can no longer get away with having only quads. Of course, the problem with this is that it puts even more of the outcome in the judges' hands and then we circle back to the issue above And I would agree that Yuzuru has adjusted Origin so he can better execute elements. Otoh, poor execution does detract from the overall impression of a program so it's a trade off. This is why I'm not on board with all the Aymoz love coming from this forum - his LP is Daniil-esque - a bunch of ugly transitions for the sake of having transitions that lead to poorly executed jumps, which diminishes the quality of the performance (I do like his SP and SP's more in general which is why I think cutting a jumping pass would help). Obviously the ideal is to have both complicated transitions and great execution, but as Nate and Kevin show, most skaters are not capable of doing both and I do believe that they both work on it. But once again, this is a judging issue - let Kevin have his sky high transition score, let Nate have his performance score, but then reflect the shortcomings in the other marks. Give Samarin and Trusova the 7's they deserve. However, even with a change in system, in a field that's close, skaters are going to keep maxing out their jumps unless you rescale the BV's to the point that it is ridiculously out of proportion to the difficulty, making it unfair in the other direction. Even in the current system, Nate has improved his spins and quality of his jumps and performance quality while Yuzuru is working on a greatly devalued 4 axel and also improved his performance. No, neither of them are maxed out on everything but that's almost impossible so they need to find that balance and they are working on improving. In a close race, changing the system isn't going to stop competitive skaters from pushing their limits because they need every edge, which means there will still be injuries. Plushenko and Chan could afford to stagnate because they had a cushion between them and the rest of the field - then it bit them in the ass on the big stage (and in Plushenko's case, he was practically bionic from injuires by the time he retired in spite of not pushing himself more). eta: whew, clearly I am either an obsessive compulsive nutter or I have too much time on my hands.

Looks like GS fan fest has a translation of an interview with Shoma. Some insights about his current state. Not sure if it's ok to put a link so if admins delete this, just go to page 750 of the Shoma fanfest https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?55427-Shoma-Uno/page750

I would agree that they should rehaul the points system to allow an extra skater but with very strict standards to get the 4th skater and the 4th skater would also have to be in the top 20 scores. I think instead of completely eliminating the possibility to go from 1 to 3, a fed could earn that 3rd spot if their entrant finishes in the top 3, but the 3rd entrant would have to be within the top 20 season's best before the next worlds The purpose of limiting the number of entrants is based on the idea that in order to grow the sport, more countries need a stake. But I don't see why we need to make it easier to get 2 entrants to fulfill this purpose. I think they should eliminate the points cap for a 2nd skater. If that country can't produce an additional skater good enough to make the FS, I don't see why they should get help getting 2 entrants. Of course, this would also require a change to 3 skater qualifications but I don't think it would be that hard to adjust. I've often thought this as well - not only for the ladies but some of the men. Even though the men can do the 3 axel, some of them have more stable quads than 3 axels and I think this may be because they're actually doing less rotation on the quads.

New Projections. Trusova - Skate Canada - still using 8.5 for PCS as she's yet to reach that but she's creeping closer Actual TES Actual PCS Actual Total SP 40.96 33.44 74.4 LP 100.2 67.42 167.62 Ded: -1 241.02 Proj TES Proj PCS Projected Total SP 42.69 34.00 76.69 LP 109.02 68.00 177.02 253.71 BV: 33.78 89.40 123.18 Kostornaya - IdF - used her LP PCS for both as her PCS rose drastically and I think it is more reflective of what her actual PCS will be than her previous PCS high. This is an example where Trusova's PCS rising with her TES could actually make a difference in an event where both go clean. I think most would agree that Kostornaya should have significantly higher PCS than Trusova - and I would say more than the 9 point gap. It also looks like a clean Kostornaya would beat a clean Scherbakova in spite of Sherbakova's 7 point BV advantage. Actual TES Actual PCS Actual Total SP 42.98 33.57 76.55 LP 88.38 71.07 159.45 deduction: 227.76 Proj TES Proj PCS Actual Total SP 48.66 35.54 84.20 LP 89.44 71.07 160.51 244.71 BV: 37.65 70.15 107.80 Kihira - Skate Canada Actual TES Actual PCS Actual Total SP 45.96 35.39 81.35 LP 77.5 71.48 148.98 230.33 Proj TES Proj PCS Proj Total SP 45.96 35.80 81.76 LP 84.38 71.49 155.87 237.63 BV 36.19 65.97 102.16 Zagitova - IdF. Here's another example of the PCS inflation possibly causing a flipping of results in a close contest. I replaced all of Zagitova's mistakes with a 3 GOE since there were multiple. This is higher than a lot of her other jumps at this competition but lower than what she's gotten in the past. I consider a 1 point difference in projections to essentially be a tie. This reaffirms my belief that the results between Zagitova and Kihira will just come down to who makes fewer mistakes. Actual TES Actual PCS Actual Total SP 38.32 36.92 75.24 LP 68.85 72.97 141.82 Deduction: -1 216.06 Projected TES Projected PCS Projected Total SP 43.80 36.91 80.71 LP 81.58 74.34 155.92 236.63 BV 33.63 64.94 98.57

After 3 events, here's the current overall standings. Ralucutzagy is short one event, Louitunes is missing the BQ for 1 event, and mercedes was short a couple BQ as well. Hopefully we'll get all the kinks worked out for the next game Legacy and Hope 85 sallycinnamon 82 LadyLou 81 airi 77 mercedes 76 Old Cat Lady 75 river 75 Paskud 69 TeaFrida 65 Louitunes 62 ralucutzagy 49

@sallycinnamon @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @river @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @TeaFrida Results of the IdF game. As usual, don't hesitate to speak up if you see anything weird - I wouldn't trust me too much. Unfortunately Louitunes, those were the wrong bonus questions so I couldn't give credit. I shockingly won this round after finishing near the bottom twice - scored myself twice thinking I must have made a mistake somewhere. Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 Total Points Old Cat Lady 6 9 4 7 2 0 2 0 2 32 Legacy and Hope 3 7 6 9 2 2 2 0 0 31 airi 6 3 4 9 2 2 2 0 2 30 LadyLou 6 3 4 9 0 2 2 2 2 30 mercedes 4 9 2 9 0 2 0 2 2 30 sallycinnamon 6 3 4 9 2 2 0 0 2 28 river 6 7 2 9 0 2 2 0 0 28 ralucutzagy 6 3 3 9 0 2 2 2 0 27 Paskud 1 7 4 9 0 2 0 0 0 23 TeaFrida 4 1 4 9 0 2 0 0 2 22 Louitunes 6 3 3 5 17 Answer Key Men's Podium 1. Chen 2. Samarin 3. Aymoz Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaia 2. Zagitova 3. Bell Pairs Podium 1. Mishina/Galliamov 2. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin 3. Denney/Frazier Dance Podium 1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates 3. Guignard/Fabbri BQ1: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all positive GOE's and level 4 elements? No BQ2: Will any of the medalists get a v in their spins No BQ3: Will there be more quads+3axels with positive GOE by the Skate Canada men's and ladies medalists or by the entire IdF field? IdF - 28 clean quads and 3 axels (Skate Canada medalists had 22) BQ4: Who will get the highest GOE before factoring on a single element. 1st tie breaker is GOE with high and low added back in. 2nd tie breaker is GOE on the skater's 2nd highest element. Nathan Chen - Choreo sequence - +5 BQ5: which disciplines will have a new season's best? Dance only

I never said that quads don't contribute to a health risk - what I'm saying is that elite sports in itself is a health risk. Where and why do you draw the line? What is the solution? And why arbitrarily focus on the quads when other factors have caused even more health problems? If you go by risk, pairs skating should be banned. In the case of Shoma and Boyang, as we have both acknowledged, we don't know what's going on with them. Why automatically put the onus on the quads? From the outside, Boyang also often seems depressed and under a lot of national pressure. As for Shoma, people have been speculating future problems due to his technique for years and I haven't heard about any current injury yet his skating took a steep decline from last year to this year. I wouldn't say Nate is the only one. He's just the most successful one. I still don't see evidence that Vincent's and Kolyada's problems are primarily due to quads and there's lower ranked skaters that have been injury free or at least, no more injury prone than before quads became a thing. I didn't say that you were saying that quads should be banned - just pointing out that the issue of shortened careers goes far beyond the quad race and was using examples to show why it is unreasonable to make them the sole focus. I would agree that a re-balancing is in order. the one measure that the ISU implemented to limit quads actually seems to cause injury because now skaters aren't competitive at the top with "only" 1 or 2 kinds of quads and are forced to learn new jumps - pretty sure it's the development stage that is the most high risk of learning any new element. Heck, even just applying the current system according to the actual guidelines and better defining the scoring would make a huge difference in quality of the programs. Under this system, there's no reason that a skater shouldn't have a 20 point cushion in PCS or in other elements -once again, it's the application of the system that's the problem. However, unless the field is weak or you rebalance to the point that BV is extremely disproportionate to an element's difficulty (which causes other problems), I don't see a huge difference being made because in a strong field, the top skaters will still have to eke out every point where they can find it eta: My personal ideal would be to cut 1 or 2 jumping passes but allow greater freedom in the passes. No penalty for sequences and a bonus for combos. Add the 30 seconds back in and have another non-jump element of the skaters choice. Don't know if this would do anything for health, but I think there would be a big improvement in quality of programs while also allowing the jumpers to still excel at what they're good at