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xeyra

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Everything posted by xeyra

  1. I'm not sure a 4Lo3T would be any easier than just doing the 4Lz.
  2. I think with Javi and Patrick, adding a 4th quad to the FS is probably going to add even more to their inconsistency, but at this point I also don't see the point in adding a new jump and not adding a 4th quad. Yuzu might add the 4Lz and still be competitive with 4 quads, but I'm not sure the same applies with only 3...
  3. I've thought of yet another incentive for Yuzu to upgrade his FS layout, unrelated to the youngsters: if Javi does add the 4Lo and Patrick the 4F, they'll be a lot closer in scoring potential with H&L Yuzu because they get similar GOEs and PCS when clean. So it might not be the youngsters alone making him upgrade but the fact Javi and Patrick might too!
  4. I've seen those instagram posts with Jason's FS from a recent competition and I really liked what I saw. I think it'll be really powerful in an arena, especially with the costumary highlights Jason has in his programs, like the lovely spirals.
  5. I'm betraying Yuzu and his kitty!extraness by needing the money to visit Javi's hometown this August, so I'm skipping the photobook too. That and I'm past buying fandom merch anymore, no matter how much I'm into something or someone.
  6. I'd never seen this, because I don't actually follow Ice Dance much (though I should probably start) but I think I just fell in love. It's not just how original and amazing that was, but their deep, deep edges, especially Charlie's, on those turns, basically left me like this
  7. A general skating question, for anyone who might be more familiar with skating moves. I was reading this post about steps in FS and the poster mentioned that the less crossovers you do to accelerate the better and Yuzu does few of those, tending to use the chassé to gain speed instead. My question is mostly related to why gaining speed through crossovers is seen as more basic and thus less desirable than through a chassé. Is it because the first pushes off with the stroke of the feet and thus is considered easier, while the chassé uses the knees?
  8. You know it'll be 90% Yuzu being extra photos. What more incentive there is?
  9. She was really impressive with that deep, deep SE sandwich. Back then what was the format of a free skate, though? Because I saw a great amount of jump passes (didn't count but they seemed a lot more than the 7-8 of now), some spins but I suspect there wasn't anything resembling step sequences back then. At this time, they also had the compulsory figures portion, yes?
  10. Adding to my earlier post, I do think Shoma will have more trouble with the 4Lz than Yuzu, since Yuzu doesn't have to fix his edge on it as well as rotating it. Whether Yuzu will consider the jump competition ready, though, will depend on how his training goes, as everyone has said. But even if the success rate is low, it might not stop him. A rotated 4Lz with a fall is still worth more than a 6.60 BV 3Lz that'll never get max GOE. His attitude has changed a bit with age and experience and last season's troubles, but maybe he will risk it, much like he risked the 4S so he could have his two 3As and 3Lzs in his Sochi FS's second half. Or he might really want to go for super clean and not add it and still be competitive, especially with a 110+ points potential SP. It's just a question of weighing the risk of not upgrading the FS with it and relying on his gap in GOE/PCS to others not closing in too much, compared to the risk of upgrading it with a new element. Edit: Whatever his choice is, we'll know by August.
  11. Yeah, basically, this is what I expect Shoma to be going for, plus an alternative with two 4Fs for perspective, though I'm not sure he'd risk two 4Fs in the second half: SKATER SP BV LAYOUT FS BV LAYOUT* TOTAL BV UNO 51.31 4F // 4T3T 3A 112.69 4Lz 4Lo 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 164.00 114.89 4Lz 4Lo 3A3T // 4F 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 166.20 From what I've read and discussed, it doesn't make sense for him to do a solo 3A when his 3A3T combo garners so many GOE, so he'll probably move that combo to the first half. I thought initially he might not and do all his combos in the second half, but having 3 quads there is already risky enough and having 2 combos on quads would be even harder, so 3A3T in the first half might be his choice. This doesn't mean he might not change his mind halfway through the season. As for the 330ish total, that'll depend a lot on his 4Lz, and whether it a) is rotated and not UR'ed; b) doesn't get an edge call, because that will lower his GOEs and BV. And how much this layout will tax his stamina by the second half. But the same applies to Yuzu if he tries a 4Lz layout with 5 quads, especially since Yuzu would definitely do all his combos in the second half. Also, and to be honest, I trust Shoma to land his jumps, even if shakily and scarily, more than I trust Yuzu not to pop something. I've been traumatized when doing statistics on Yuzu's popstar status. This, of course, if the 4Lz is ready for Shoma, otherwise I wonder if he won't risk the 4Lo // 4F3T 3A SP layout and go for the WTT 2017 4-quad FS with 2 4Fs. That would be about 160.55 BV total. Comparatively, here are Yuzu's BV possibilities again (not including H&L's layout because I doubt he won't upgrade something): SKATER SP BV LAYOUT FS BV LAYOUT* TOTAL BV HANYU 51.01 4Lo // 3A 4T3T 105.41 4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 4T2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz 156.42 109.83 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz 160.84 111.26 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3A 162.27 So Yuzu will probably never have higher BV than Shoma (unless he decides to throw a 4Lz at his SP too, but then nothing guarantees Shoma won't try 4Lo in his either) and his GOE/PCS advantage is smaller with Shoma than with Nathan. This is not meant to scare anyone, by the way. Yuzu didn't have higher BV than Shoma by the second half of the season either and we know how Worlds went. But if Shoma does add a 4Lz, it is more likely for Yuzu to push himself to add it too, to tighten the gap. The 4Lz would be a risky element for both of them, though, so I think in this 'fight', the winner will be whoever stabilizes it with better quality first (or doesn't get UR/edge calls). And doesn't pop it. Of course, if they screw up too much trying to one-up each other, Nathan will just sweep in for the win.
  12. It is annoying. The fact a 3T3Lo combo is worth as much as a 3Lo3T, for example, is rather baffling considering how much harder it must be to rotate a 3Lo as the last jump in the combo. Much more likely for one to do the first than the second the second than the first, with no incentive for it.
  13. Basically the whole of this practice session was a 'see, Patrick, what I'm going to do next time?'
  14. His reaction was priceless.
  15. Give it time. In a few years Gogolev will be doing it on a 4A.
  16. Go to a poster's profile and click the button that says Message, right next to Follow Member.
  17. They can get the spot, I think. I trust them to do so. I'm more worried if Japan will actually have a Pairs team with minimums to participate in the Team Event because their current best has citizenship issues since Francis is not Japanese and won't be able to go anyway.
  18. I'm happy we're all assuming Yuzu will be skating in the season after the Olympics at least.
  19. They only need one of those to get a spot. The missing discipline will get to participate in the Team Event only, by default, provided they meet the minimums.
  20. Or that Javi skated last. That did count too, actually. Especially after back to back good SPs, which is basically how Yuzu reached 330 at GPF 2015. Momentum does build from skater to skater and judges get more generous as they go along if people are having good performances.
  21. Patrick tends to be a bit inconsistent but when he's good, like at 4CC 2016 or in his SP at GPF 2016 or Worlds 2017, I did expect more 10s. This is where, I think, the idea we've had of PCS being tied to your TES and your BV gains credence. Javi's SP at Worlds was spectacular but that Patrick got less 10s than Javi did can possibly be tied to the fact he didn't do 2 quads.
  22. 4Lz // 3A 4T-3T seems quite doable for Boyang, though he might place the 4T3T before the 3A in that case. I also suspect Nathan might backload his 4F even if he doesn't backload the combo, so either 4Lz3T 3A // 4F or 4Lz3T // 3A 4F. There's really no reason why he can't since the SP is basically as long as the first half of a FS. I'm not sure Boyang is working on a 4F too. I think he sometimes has edge issues on his 3F, so it's a bit like Yuzu trying to do the 4F. Has there been rumors out of Weibo about Boyang and the 4F, though? I'm not actually considering that jump in any of my possible layouts but if he adds it too......... oh my. I calculated a bunch of options here, actually, for only for the SP and you can already see the myriad possibilities. Just for fun, here are the numbers with the changed SPs for Nathan and Boyang. SKATER SP BV LAYOUT FS BV LAYOUT* TOTAL BV CHEN 54.38 4Lz3T 3A // 4F 117.10 4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz 171.48 122.37 4Lz3T 4Lo 4F2T 4Lz // 4F 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A 176.75 JIN 52.61 4Lz // 4T3T 3A 110.78 4Lz3T 4S 4Lo // 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz 163.39 114.10 4Lz3T 4Lo 4Lz // 4T2T 4S 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz 166.71 Of course, all these BV calculations assume level 4 in everything and with these many quads, I wonder if skaters won't be too tired to get their levels properly. And once more into the math and GOE/PCS: SKATER TOTAL LAYOUT BV BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS (from previous season) SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS NOTES HANYU 154.44 177.68 332.12 Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout CHEN 171.48 151.83 323.31 Alt. SP + 6-quad layout 176.75 151.83 328.58 Alt. SP + 7-quad layout JIN 163.39 150.02 313.41 Alt. SP + 5-quad layout 166.71 150.02 316.73 Alt. SP + 5-quad layout Note: Please do take all this math with a huge grain of salt because applying last season's GOEs/PCS to prospective layouts for the coming season is sketchy at best.
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