xeyra

And here did I just do the math in the other thread to find out Yuzu doesn't even need the 4Lz, technically. No one is dismissing Yuzu at all. Side-eyeing him if he goes Chopin+Seimei again doesn't mean I am dooming him or like him any less. Not dismissing Shoma doesn't mean one hates Yuzu. Anyways, I think I'll go back to the quiet off-season I was promised. Seeya in September!

I haven't seen his 4Lz so I can't say how it is but as I said, if it's a Flutz it's a Flutz with the appropriate negative GOE. However I never noticed many differences in GOE in their 4F, the other jump Nathan and Shoma share, no matter how much one cries about his 3.25F. Just saying.

I agree, I do think likely Shoma will have edge issues with the 4Lz, even as he is trying to work on them. It's a hard thing to fix properly in a short time. But you also seem to imply judges will suddenly start marking other things they haven't before just because Nathan is a contender. That seems unlikely since they haven't considered them as issues before. I think if that happens, it'll show more in GOE than tech calls. Maybe, if even. His 4Lz will likely not get the same GOE of his 4F or Nathan's or Boyang's 4Lz. But if he lands it well just when he needs to... which is Shoma's MO from last season...

Only if he flutzes on his 4Lz. Doubtful you'll see tech panels start marking down jumps Shoma has done for an entire season before with no issues just because USA. Better consider Shoma for the threat he is because I don't doubt he can win if Yuzu so much as falters and he doesn't.

As you could see in the overrall skating thread, yes. Possibly. But he can't have a huge BV difference from Shoma more so than Nathan, actually.

I did do some math in the overrall skating layout thread. It does give credence to the fact it's not Nathan's 7-quads Yuzu will need to be worried about unless Nathan boosts up his GOEs, but Shoma's 4Lz. However, it's also something quite positive to look at. Of course, it only counts if one delivers...

And this is the analysis. This actually makes a few points in the general discussion rather valid (does he need the 4Lz or not? Possibly not, actually, but that might be a bit risky), but one needs to remember these GOEs/PCS were valid only for the 2016-2017 season. Who knows what will come next season and how some will improve. BEST GOE AND PCS FROM 2016-2017 SEASON SKATER BEST SP GOE BEST FS GOE BEST TOTAL GOE BEST SP PCS BEST FS PCS BEST TOTAL PCS TOTAL ADDED TO BV HANYU 10.56 22.69 33.25 47.35 97.08 144.43 177.68 FERNANDEZ 13.04 15.20 28.24 48.26 95.70 143.96 172.20 CHAN 11.21 12.96 24.17 48.02 95.14 143.16 167.33 UNO 9.94 15.29 25.23 46.74 94.42 141.16 166.39 CHEN 7.32 12.11 19.43 43.54 88.86 132.40 151.83 JIN 6.92 15.24 22.16 41.86 86.00 127.86 150.02 So, let's take some scenarios, with layouts picked at random: SKATER TOTAL LAYOUT BV BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS NOTES HANYU 154.44 177.68 332.12 Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout UNO 164.43 166.39 330.82 SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lz CHEN 175.19 151.83 327.02 SP + Possible 7-quad layout FERNANDEZ 150.43 172.20 322.63 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lo CHAN 150.33 167.33 317.66 SP + 4-quad layout with 4F JIN 165.43 150.02 315.45 SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lo and 2x 4Lz So, from these complicated scenarios, a few things can be posited: Shoma would need to make certain a 5-quad layout with 4Lz would garner more GOE/PCS than he managed to get at Worlds. He just needs one good day and those 2 points difference will be gone. Nathan needs to work on his GOE/PCS, otherwise not even a 7-quad layout will actually save him. What will Yuzu achieve with a perfectly skated Chopin 3.0 allied even to just a Worlds 2017 FS... To note: PCS will probably rise steadily through the season.

Taking this away from the General thread and posting some speculative BV totals. Please note all this BV speculation doesn't take into account possible changes to SP as well. In another post, I'll do some speculative math as well. SKATER SP BV LAYOUT FS BV LAYOUT* TOTAL BV CHEN 53.15 4Lz3T 4F // 3A 115.74 4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz 168.89 117.10 4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz 170.25 122.04 4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 4Lo 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A 175.19 122.37 4Lz3T 4Lo 4F2T 4Lz // 4F 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A 175.52 UNO 51.31 4F // 4T3T 3A 107.34 4Lo 4F 3Lz // 3A3T 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 158.65 109.59 4Lo 4S 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 160.90 111.79 4Lo 4S 3A3T // 4F 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 163.10 112.69 4Lz 4Lo 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 164.00 113.12 4Lz 4Lo 3A // 4F2T 4T3T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 164.43 114.94 4Lz 4Lo 4F // 4F2T 3A3T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S 166.25 119.63 4Lz 4Lo 4S // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3A3T 170.94 HANYU 51.01 4Lo // 3A 4T3T 103.43 4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz 154.44 105.41 4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 4T2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz 156.42 107.06 4Lo 4S 3F // 4Lo3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3Lz 158.07 109.83 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz 160.84 111.26 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3A 162.27 FERNANDEZ 47.75 4T3T 4S // 3A 100.92 4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4T 3A2T 3Lz3T3Lo 3F 3S 148.67 102.68 4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4S 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F 150.43 103.11 4Lo 4S 3A // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F 150.86 104.41 4Lo 4S2T 3A // 4T3T3Lo 4T 3A2T 3F 3Lz 152.16 JIN 51.33 4Lz3T 3A // 4T 110.78 4Lz3T 4S 4Lo // 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz 162.11 114.10 4Lz3T 4Lo 4Lz // 4T2T 4S 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz 165.43 CHAN 48.05 4T3T 4S // 3A 94.25 4T3T 4S 3A1Lo3S // 4T 3A 3Lo 3Lz2T 3F 142.30 96.08 4F 4S 3A3T // 4T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3Lo 3Lz 144.13 99.98 4F 4S 3A1Lo3S // 4T3T 3A 3Lz3T 3F 3Lo 148.03 102.28 4T3T 4F 4S // 4T 3A2T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3F 150.33 ZHOU 53.15 4Lz3T 4F // 3A 112.29 4Lz 4F 4S3T // 4T 4S 3A 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3F 165.44 *Speculative layouts only EDIT 1: Added Vincent Zhou's possible SP/FS layouts. EDIT 2: Added more layouts to a few skaters.

He might as well go for it, then.

This is why I actually don't think he should try for 5 quads but try for consistency with a 4-quad layout with a 4Lz, because then the only new element he'd need to control is the 4Lz. He already has the stamina for 4-quads. And his BV would increase a lot, with that.

Regular in house simulations makes sense to participate in. And these are in contrast to pre-Worlds simulations with other skating schools outside of TCC, which is apparently the kind Yuzu doesn't do.

Yeah, I was wondering if this would have been that kind of simulation, since the last time TCC did simulations, Yuzu didn't participate in them, but I think that was probably because it was out of TCC pre-Worlds simulations.

Yeah, this is a good point. Everyone says how the Olympic experience is different. Yuzu, Patrick and Javi have the advantage here, having experienced it before. Nathan seems pretty unflappable, though, but the Olympics IS different. Shoma, I don't know. He'll always have Yuzu as a buffer until he surpasses him or Yuzu r****s, so it's different for Shoma. And Boyang will probably just be happy to be there and steal your medals from under your noses.

BTW, in an unrelated subject: in that recent TCC photo, it was mentioned that Yuzu was watching some simulations and later participated in them in the same group as Jun Hwan. I wonder what do these simulations entail? Were they doing runthroughs of their programs?

I don't know why speculation and talk about things is considered worrying, though. Sure, we trust him, but that doesn't mean we can't discuss possible strategies. But I'll stop since obviously the subject is gloomy.

I'm not worried about BV. I just like the speculation and playing scenarios in my mind. Though I did go to check that Russian post about the total BV statistics again and with a faulty SP (which lowered his BV), Yuzu had about a 16 BV difference from Nathan at Worlds, so he does have room to maneuver. And he's already increased his SP BV for next season by a little too. So yes, he can, so far, afford a bit of a difference. But those differences can raise if others raise their BV too. To be honest, win or lose, I just want him to skate clean so whatever helps him do that. I might side-eye him a bit if he doesn't change anything in his FS and still brings Seimei 2.0, though. I also don't actually think Nathan will go for a 7-quad layout. I think his Worlds 6-quad layout will be what he'll probably use, with maybe some more backloading in both SP and FS. Training a 7-quad program will take way more stamina than I think he may be able to do regularly. Shoma, I've no idea if his 4Lz will be ready in time for the layout he's planning. Same for Javi and the 4Lo and Patrick and the 4F. Boyang will have the 4Lo though, since he was already training it last season so he'll bring it. So, yeah, Yuzu might not really need the 4Lz. But he might otherwise need to be clean in his FS pretty consistently.

Nah, I'm sure he'll have a new costume for Turandot. This is just his Dai-inspired 'show' costume. I'm... sure of this. Err.

LOL yeah. His SP BV tends to be very high, but the GOE/PCS are what determines the final score and since Nathan fell on the 3A at Worlds, it effed him up there. And he didn't get the full on BV because he missed levels on a spin and the step sequence.

Yes, I did the statistics. They're very enlightening but they're only valid for last season, though. We can't assume everyone else will stay static. You're assuming that if Nathan goes for a 7-quad BV of 122 or Shoma for the potential 112 BV layout he hinted at PIW yesterday and Yuzu stays static on his 103.43 BV, he'll still manage the advantage of GOEs and PCS alone. Not from Shoma, he won't. Shoma is actually his greatest rival at this point because he gets the GOE AND the PCS. What if Javi adds the 4Lo too? And who says Nathan won't improve on his GOEs too? Sure, he won't have much of a program if he goes for 7 quads, but that doesn't mean if he lands them, he won't get enough GOEs to make some difference, especially given the ridiculous 122ish BV he'd have then. You're also assuming Yuzu will get the same GOEs he got in 2015. I think it will depend on his early season and how clean he'll be, I guess. Worlds was a bit of an anomaly due to his 5th place and skating first in the FS, so we don't really know how his GOEs might have gone if he'd skated last. We also don't know how Nathan would have scored with a 2x4Lz and 2x4F layout, since he couldn't do that one at Worlds, having to improvise. The fact is, Yuzu can't stay static in an ever changing men's field. Maybe he'll be able to make up for a very large BV difference, yes, but that will be relying on him going foot perfect and everyone else doing some mistakes. Javi tried that last season and we know how it ended. So Yuzu will have to raise his BV somehow. Even if it's not a very high increase, he must raise it. Assuming he won't need to is assuming that everyone else will play safe. They won't. Edit: Of course, this requires the higher BV guys to also land their stuff on the day (and during the season, for momentum). There's no guarantee they will. But there's no guarantee Yuzu will either. So it'll be an interesting season to follow, that's for sure. Edit 2: @moni, the math actually does agree with you, BTW. But, as I said, this is assuming Nathan's scores would be static.

Nathan's highest total BV was from Worlds 2017 (SP: 52.15 + FS: 112.87). Edit: His SP BV lowered due to missed levels.

It's still terrible. He still doesn't have a neck with it. Burn it!! Shoma ilu but no, no dead chicken please. At least I know it's just for shows and not what he'll keep. Right!?

Only if there's no more than 10-15 or so BV difference total across both SP and FS. Anything more and, if both go clean, Nathan's BV might make up for lower PCS/GOEs. So Yuzu does need to raise his BV too. Which he will. How, we shall see.

when is it starting or did it already start?

I'd never seen that program before! It's gorgeous! Thank you for posting this! And hearing the commentary on how she was skating injury made it all the more epic when she landed those jumps so wonderfully!

If Nathan lands 7-quads, it's possible not even a super clean Yuzu might beat him, due to sheer BV. Who knows? But whatever happens, I just want people to do their best and skate well, and then the dice will fall where it will.