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xeyra

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  1. xeyra
    As promised, the 10s in PCS tables: As you can see, outside of the two 10s in Yuzu's SP at NHK 2016, which would sort of impact his PCS in IN by a couple decimals, most 10s in faulty performances were solo 10s, which are dismissed from the scoring. For a question of principle, I understand being salty at 10s, but scoring wise, they have little impact. Not being able to receive 10s shouldn't bring much change (and the wording is not even prohibiting 10s in performances with major errors, just 'suggesting' they're not given). And for comparison, from the 2015-2016 season: You see a lot more use of 10s in this season with Javi, though.
  2. xeyra
    I wonder if I should do a version of the BV table with some alternative SP layouts too. I'm almost positive Boyang will definitely change something in his SP if he's not repeating Spiderman. I'm not yet sure if Patrick will use the 4F he is training in the SP too or Javi the 4Lo. I suspect no, because it's such an added risk to do so in the SP, in Olympic season; we've seen with Yuzu how trouble with the SP can put you behind, so safer routes in the SP might be chosen by everyone. I suspect Shoma also saw the added strain of trying to do a 4Lo // 4F3T 3A layout in his SP, so he's going with the old layout, only backloading the 4T3T as well instead. I wonder, aside from Shoma and Yuzu, if anyone else might risk a backloaded combo in the SP next season. Nathan? Boyang? The inability to make up for a lost combo in the SP if it's your second jump tends to dissuade a lot of people from doing so.
  3. xeyra
    I'll try to find the table I created out of the data; I think I did it at work so it's in that computer. But 10s in PCS for a performance with errors doesn't really impact on PCS much, since it's usually a solo one in a category that gets thrown out. I guess even the thought of a single 10 in interpretation of the music for an otherwise great performance with a stepout is a crime to some, so I'm sure they'd judge Patrick's PCS by the same standards. The impact of 10s in faulty performances is overstated, anyway. Mostly, 10s are given to perfect performances, though even then people complain that 'is this what a 10 amounts to?' so they'd never give 10s to anyone anyway (except maybe PChiddy).
  4. xeyra
    To be honest, the only guys who got 10s with faulty performances were the uncles and Yuzu. @kaeryth, I think, did a compilation in the general thread about the 10s given in PCS for the men last season and what was noticed is that the 10s in faulty performances hardly ever mattered for Yuzu because he got mostly one 10 per category and thus it was the grade dropped from the average. Also 10s were mostly given for Interpretation of the music, more so than other categories in PCS, which I think is the more subjective of the components. I think Javi may have benefited from 10s from faulty performances a tad more, but that mostly happens at Europeans and you know he's got no competition there to make it matter. So I'm not sure it'll matter in the end; judges might just give 9.75 instead and have one of those dropped from the average. So I'm not particularly sure how this will affect anyone but at least people at GS will be happy not to see 10s for interpretation of the music when Yuzu doesn't land his 4Lo properly in his SP. I'm slightly more concerned about the wording for the SP solo jump, because I don't think it's clarifying enough for the judges on what it entails (as in, what is a creative movements into the solo jump anyway?). Will we see more or less disparity in SP solo jumps scores? Similarly, I don't think they clarify what counts as a major error in terms of scoring those 10s in PCS. Yuzu's 4Lo at GPF 2016 is a major error? Even though he just flailed at the landing? Does anything worth negative GOE count as a serious error? These are the questions that I have, and I guess we'll see how it goes next season. As for after Pyeongchang, if they increase the GOE from -3 +3 to -5 +5, it'll depend on what the criteria will be for those scores but in a perfect world, it should allow more differentiation between jump quality. If we'd been in a post GPF 2015 world, I'd say it would benefit Yuzu since the prospective rules were thought of with his WR breaking in mind, but Yuzu lost a bit of that momentum when he lost Worlds in 2016, so he's trying to work back to it again. Winning Worlds 2017 should help, but it'll also depend on what he brings to the table next season. But the higher GOE range can also be problematic if judges just give it away arbitrarily. As for the 30s less and one less jumping pass change to the FS, well, what can happen when you have 30s less eating at your stamina, I wonder. So do any of the new rules, for next season or the one beyond, benefit Yuzu? I don't know, we'll have to see. I don't think it'll benefit him any less than the previous rules did. At least we know he's safe from negative GOE on his solo SP jump due to lack of steps. He just better not pop it.
  5. xeyra
    I understand and I apologize, since I think I came a bit too strong even though essentially we agree and the math does help show it. The 10-15 BV difference interval was probably unnecessarily small. But I also don't want to dismiss Nathan and his ability to work on his GOEs or actually land his jumps, which is why I think Yuzu does need to up some of his BV too. He already did it with the SP and I expect something in the FS too. Nathan's GOEs/PCS right now might not be strong, but there's no guarantee they won't improve next season, or that he won't backload more jumps and thus increase his BV even further. And although the higher BV doesn't necessarily win, as we've seen, I'm always weary to consider last season as indicative of what to expect, because we never got to see Nathan land his 6-quads at Worlds to see exactly how that would have scored (if better or worse than 4CC). However, I do think he may have lost some momentum with his troubles at Worlds and he's going to have to build it again. Shoma, as seen rather well at Worlds, is the one closest to touching Yuzu, because he's also more well-rounded, but adding a 4Lz will definitely not be easy for him. Neither will it for Yuzu, to be honest, but aside from replacing a 4S3T for a 4Lo3T and/or a 3A for a second 4T, the only way to raise BV for Yuzu is the 4Lz. Or go Zagitova and backload all the jumps. But I also think Yuzu could get by with 4 different quads, if one of them is a 4Lz (no need for 5 quads, which may affect a program), as long as he wouldn't pop the 4Lz, because he'd be able to essentially keep the layout as is and we know the scoring potential of a good SP and that kind of FS. Funny, I'd never seen the first two attempts, only the latter. The last one is the more indicative of what his 4Lz is like at this point. It's fascinating how he basically trained it with the same short entry of his 3Lz. No long running edge going into it, just a wham bam thank you ma'am 4Lz.
  6. xeyra
    Well, I'm just speculating it might have taken a toll on her, considering, but it may have been only her injury that prevented her from doing better last season. But I did watch that SC competition recently and I confess I felt a little revolted on her behalf because I don't actually think she UR'ed that many jumps.
  7. xeyra
    Patrick has gotten quite a few positive GOE 4T pops, since he pops them into triples and he just tends to stop the rotation sooner thus it looks like a nice triple. So although one knows it's a pop, it's still a pretty triple. Yuzu does seem to pop into singles/doubles more often than not, but I agree that he tends to be more sensitive to whether his jumps are going to work on takeoff itself (he's said this before, actually) and thus tends to pop them earlier.
  8. xeyra
    You can only do 8 jumping passes in a FS, don't forget. You can't do a layout like 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S 3T 3A 3T 4T 3A 3S 3Lz because you would then have 11 separate jumping passes. So you need the combos. And you're allowed 3 combos, 1 of which a 3-jump combo. So, combos are good. Missing a combo eats away at your BV. And, as per rules, you can't repeat a jump without one of them being in a combo.
  9. xeyra
    Also, combinations don't get any higher BV if they're a harder combination. So, for example, a 4T3T is worth the same as a 3T4T, because they just sum up the Base Value of the individual jumps.
  10. xeyra
    You mean moving the 3F to the second half entirely (he kind of had his 3F barely in the first half in H&L, true). This would make the BV 0.53 higher, so, 110.36. By the way, Yuzu can do 3A3T in that layout, instead of 3A2T, since he's not repeating any quads.
  11. xeyra
    Translation of the video in gif form. https://blckbetty.tumblr.com/post/163098279983/jfls-javier-on-patry-jordans-vlog
  12. xeyra
    She was battling a bone injury, I think. Adding to that, she sort of got destroyed at Skate Canada 2016; basically skated a clean FS but when the scores came up, she had been given underrotations on basically all her jump passes. I think that might have taken its toll on her mentally as well.
  13. xeyra
  14. xeyra
    Men with kitties are a weakness. Cute!
  15. xeyra
    In the end, I am somewhat expecting everyone to not up their BV too much after all and go safe and troll all my tables and math.
  16. xeyra
    He did land a few more at FaOI practices. Not many, but some. Also apparently his 4Lo was around 60% success rate at the beginning of the season. If he gets the 4Lz like that, who knows if he'll think it's enough. It is Olympic season, after all. He can't really experiment with the 4Lz like he did with the 4Lo last season. But this is also why he's doing Chopin with 4T3T. So he has a margin for that experimentation.
  17. xeyra
    His 4Lo sort of stabilized quickly in a way. Took him one season for a 2.43 GOE 4Lo and he landed rather a good amount of them more than he fell/popped/UR'ed. SP issues notwithstanding. He'd been trying it out for a while in shows, though. His 4S seems to have taken longer.
  18. xeyra
    If you gotta be something, be a rockstar.
  19. xeyra
    1Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 4Lz - 104.07. BTW, an underrotated 4Lz(e) is worth 8.40 BV + -4 GOE = 4.40. A 1Lz is worth 0.60. He'd need to pop it into a triple like Patrick or Javi. No more singles!
  20. xeyra
    This is where we must be cautious, though, because if Nathan works on perfecting a 6-quad layout instead of going for 7, he might actually start working on getting those GOEs up. Shoma's PCS will also rise now he's no longer just in Yuzu's shadow but a true contender, though a 4Lz in his FS might bring him as many issues as one in Yuzu's layout. Then again, I see Yuzu more likely to pop his 4Lz and Shoma flutzing and underrotating his. I don't know who'd have better BV on their failed 4Lz then.
  21. xeyra
    For all the crying about his underscoring in Helsinki, he'd still win against others with higher BV if they got the GOEs they got this season. Imagine what he can achieve with a 110+ SP.
  22. xeyra
    Oh, I think that 6-quad option is more likely for Nathan too. I was going by the highest BV for him for comparison purposes. Revising the table to meet your options: SKATER TOTAL LAYOUT BV BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS NOTES HANYU 154.44 177.68 332.12 Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout 160.84 177.68 338.52 Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz UNO 158.65 166.39 325.04 SP + WTT 2017 layout 164.43 166.39 330.82 SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lz CHEN 170.25 151.83 322.08 SP + 6-quad layout 175.19 151.83 327.02 SP + Possible 7-quad layout FERNANDEZ 150.43 172.20 322.63 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lo CHAN 150.33 167.33 317.66 SP + 4-quad layout with 4F JIN 165.43 150.02 315.45 SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lo and 2x 4Lz Edit: From my understanding, Shoma will probably not do the 4S because he has difficulty getting the strength needed for the takeoff for it (I don't remember if the issue is with his left or right leg, whichever is responsible for the takeoff on the 4S). Hence training the 4Lz.
  23. xeyra
    And how about this: SKATER TOTAL LAYOUT BV BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS NOTES HANYU 160.84 177.68 338.52 Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz Of course, this would require him to have a +2 GOE 4Lz by Olys.
  24. xeyra
  25. xeyra
    Corrected a mistake on Patrick's Best FS PCS, which changed some totals. Sorry about that.
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