Guess Everyone's layouts

[Paskud]

2 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

Bringing this back bc i cant sit still with literally 4 weeks left until worlds

 

In order to get the most optimized layout yet doable at this point i think this is the ideal layout. of course we cant change what yuzu is planning but i just messed around with the app and came up with

 

4lo

4Sal

FCoSp4

StSq4

3F

4T 

2nd half

4S3T 

3Aeu3S

3A2T2Lo

ChSq1

FCSSp4

CCoSp4   

 Max value assuming 100 PCS and all + 5 GOE = 232.42 

You can't have two three-jumps combos. Only one. And I doubt he can do 3f as a third jumping pass. He doesn't have speed there to do so.

[makebelieveup]

27 minutes ago, Paskud said:

You can't have two three-jumps combos. Only one. And I doubt he can do 3f as a third jumping pass. He doesn't have speed there to do so.

The eu is actually counted as a jump tho urghh 

 

well i think he could create connecting steps to bring more speed into that 3F. its not impossible. 

 

he could do a 3A3Lo if thats possible instead of 3Aeu3s. I mean yeah its not common but not totally undoable. he seems to not want to lose bv by doing doubles but if he could do 3 jump combo it could help

 

[Paskud]

5 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

The eu is actually counted as a jump tho urghh 

 

well i think he could create connecting steps to bring more speed into that 3F. its not impossible. 

 

he could do a 3A3Lo if thats possible instead of 3Aeu3s. I mean yeah its not common but not totally undoable. he seems to not want to lose bv by doing doubles but if he could do 3 jump combo it could help

 

He never trained -3lo. This combo is extremely difficult and you can on fingers count all skaters who landed this internationally this season. You can't learn such element in 2-3 months on injured ankle. Better pray for 4lo to come back.

[makebelieveup]

5 minutes ago, Paskud said:

He never trained -3lo. This combo is extremely difficult and you can on fingers count all skaters who landed this internationally this season. You can't learn such element in 2-3 months on injured ankle. Better pray for 4lo to come back.

Yes, we can say he wont do a 3lz or a 3flip or a 4a but honestly we never know and i wont dismiss a possibility thats doable for him. people didnt even think he would be doing 4T3Aseq even when they saw his practice during media day. people didnt think he could even compete at pc but he won and even did a 4loop in practice. people didnt think he would put the 4t3t in the second half of the short after 1 comp but he did. we really don't know what he had trained for or what his busted ankle could up to.  itits not like im saying he'd do a 4a combo. Im not saying this is his layout im presenting an optimized layout that IS doable for someone like him. cant hurt to just guess around for the fun of it

[wpisces]

28 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

Yes, we can say he wont do a 3lz or a 3flip or a 4a but honestly we never know and i wont dismiss a possibility thats doable for him. people didnt even think he would be doing 4T3Aseq even when they saw his practice during media day. people didnt think he could even compete at pc but he won and even did a 4loop in practice. people didnt think he would put the 4t3t in the second half of the short after 1 comp but he did. we really don't know what he had trained for or what his busted ankle could up to.  itits not like im saying he'd do a 4a combo. Im not saying this is his layout im presenting an optimized layout that IS doable for someone like him. cant hurt to just guess around for the fun of it

I'm more convinced of him doing 3lutz or 3flip than 4lo. I don't doubt his ability but I think we won't see new combo/ jump at Worlds. " New" combo 4S3T did give him trouble all along 2016 2017 season. Even 4T3Aseq,which he has done many times in practice, gala... didn't have great success rate in competitions until now ( 1/3). Personally I would like him to ditch risky 4T3A which are more to show off than to maximize scoring potential because I think it isn't a smart combo strategically.

[SparkleSalad]

I don’t think 4T3A will be a priority now. He’s landed it in competition so hopefully he can put it aside and focus on maximising points (and maybe bring back some of that stunning choreography that he gave up for it.) 

 

I hope if he does bring back 4Lo that his ankle is ready for it. We know he can push himself to do it if he has to but that poor ankle... 

[Paskud]

54 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

Yes, we can say he wont do a 3lz or a 3flip or a 4a but honestly we never know and i wont dismiss a possibility thats doable for him. people didnt even think he would be doing 4T3Aseq even when they saw his practice during media day. people didnt think he could even compete at pc but he won and even did a 4loop in practice. people didnt think he would put the 4t3t in the second half of the short after 1 comp but he did. we really don't know what he had trained for or what his busted ankle could up to.  itits not like im saying he'd do a 4a combo. Im not saying this is his layout im presenting an optimized layout that IS doable for someone like him. cant hurt to just guess around for the fun of it

The same way we can predict -eu-4s combo. This is doable too.

[makebelieveup]

 

9 hours ago, wpisces said:

I'm more convinced of him doing 3lutz or 3flip than 4lo. I don't doubt his ability but I think we won't see new combo/ jump at Worlds. " New" combo 4S3T did give him trouble all along 2016 2017 season. Even 4T3Aseq,which he has done many times in practice, gala... didn't have great success rate in competitions until now ( 1/3). Personally I would like him to ditch risky 4T3A which are more to show off than to maximize scoring potential because I think it isn't a smart combo strategically.

yeah i dont doubt him doing a 3f or 3lz i was saying it bc someone had dismissed it. if he ditches  both 4t3a and 4loop, what would you suggest his layout to be? I think he wouldnt want to give up the 4quads 2 triple axels layout 

maybe

4S 4T 3Lz 3A 4S3T* 4Teu3S* 3a2T*

 

its gonna be hard to ditch that 4loop if he isnt leading after the sp really. he knows his competitors really well. i just dont think he will get home inflation as much as people think and if he does shoma would too. i didnt think shoma could actually be better after his injury but he proved me wrong. everyone is going to bring their A games here

 

 

9 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

I don’t think 4T3A will be a priority now. He’s landed it in competition so hopefully he can put it aside and focus on maximising points (and maybe bring back some of that stunning choreography that he gave up for it.) 

 

I hope if he does bring back 4Lo that his ankle is ready for it. We know he can push himself to do it if he has to but that poor ankle... 

lol *whispers* but remember someone was like if he isnt getting positive goes on it it means nothing. jk yeah i agree its kinda a wow factor element but isnt worth sacrificing for here. i think he will bring back those TR. its gonna be a darn packed program. he might do a biellman too

 

yeah that 4loop is what im hoping for. competing is his life as he said many times so even if he has to take a lot of painkillers he might do it in order to win :(

8 hours ago, Paskud said:

The same way we can predict -eu-4s combo. This is doable too.

you can though. i appreciate you corrected the first layout i presented by reminding me about the rules, but the tone you gave off appeared as if you are being dismissive and factual when i simply presented my personal opinions. since this isnt a debate out of good faith i shall move on 

[Neenah]

4 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

 

4S 4T 3Lz 3A 4S3T* 4Teu3S* 3a2T*

With the new rules only one quad can be repeated so this layout is not allowed. If Yuzu does not include the 4L then he can only have 3 quads in his program.

[makebelieveup]

7 minutes ago, Neenah said:

With the new rules only one quad can be repeated so this layout is not allowed. If Yuzu does not include the 4L then he can only have 3 quads in his program.

oh thanks. this is why i think he has to bring back 4loop 

4loop 4sal 3lz 4T 4S3T* 3aeu3S* 3a2t*

 

[Paskud]

On 2/18/2019 at 1:37 PM, makebelieveup said:

you can though. i appreciate you corrected the first layout i presented by reminding me about the rules, but the tone you gave off appeared as if you are being dismissive and factual when i simply presented my personal opinions. since this isnt a debate out of good faith i shall move on 

I didn't want to be rude. Sorry, if it sounds like that.

I don't want to underestimate Zu, but also don't want to overestimate him. He is human too. For me saying "why not -3lo at worlds" when he is injured and we don't know his current state (even when he is smiley and relaxed recently) is as crazy as, for example, "why not 4lo as a 3rd jumping pass in Origin" when he has no speed for any quad, let alone 4 loop, by many considered as hard (if not harder) as 4 lutz. Or I remember people (here on planet) saying after SP at COR "20 points lead! he can try 4a now" when he said he didn't touch Nessie since ACI and didn't attempt it even once during open practice.

I'm sure he can have -3lo combo after whatever jump, if he only wants. But now it isn't time for it. I know he was able to bring 4t3a while recovering from injury, but it wasn't new element. He was doing it in galas for years. People wondered if he would do it in competition, not because it is hard, but because reward in points is small.

At least that's me. I'm usually pessimistic. Zu has two months and a little to recover all his jumps (again), so Helsinki layout is the most I am able to hope.

And I hope Zuzu will be never injured again so he can play with Nessie and all combos and sequences he wants. And I want to see -eu-4s in competition one day for sheer chaos.

[makebelieveup]

22 minutes ago, Paskud said:

I didn't want to be rude. Sorry, if it sounds like that.

I don't want to underestimate Zu, but also don't want to overestimate him. He is human too. For me saying "why not -3lo at worlds" when he is injured and we don't know his current state (even when he is smiley and relaxed recently) is as crazy as, for example, "why not 4lo as a 3rd jumping pass in Origin" when he has no speed for any quad, let alone 4 loop, by many considered as hard (if not harder) as 4 lutz. Or I remember people (here on planet) saying after SP at COR "20 points lead! he can try 4a now" when he said he didn't touch Nessie since ACI and didn't attempt it even once during open practice.

I'm sure he can have -3lo combo after whatever jump, if he only wants. But now it isn't time for it. I know he was able to bring 4t3a while recovering from injury, but it wasn't new element. He was doing it in galas for years. People wondered if he would do it in competition, not because it is hard, but because reward in points is small.

At least that's me. I'm usually pessimistic. Zu has two months and a little to recover all his jumps (again), so Helsinki layout is the most I am able to hope.

And I hope Zuzu will be never injured again so he can play with Nessie and all combos and sequences he wants. And I want to see -eu-4s in competition one day for sheer chaos.

Okay thanks for clarifying what you intended to say. I guess text could really get lost in translation and I could be too sensitive as well. Trust me I am just as pessimistic. I am actually super worried which is why I am coming up with so many possibilities in my head. I have been keeping my expectation real low to put that pressure off myself and off of Yuzu. I feel like I want it to come but, at the same time, fear it is gonna be either the best or worst day of my life haha its how pessimistic I am. I don't think he will ever debut a -3loop or 4a, at least not at this point. I am not even sure if he would bring the 4loop, 4t3a, 3lz or 3flip back. But I was thinking that would be the layout that would garner the most points without adding a fifth quad... and since Yuzu is who he is, we can never expect what he would do. And I would love for him to prove me wrong. I honestly hope that he could maybe train a -3loop combo in the future just so it gives him more combo possibilities and he wont have to risk adding a new quad or seq...and honestly i feel like the layout i suggested makes more sense (get rid of the 3lz and put back the 3loop if u will) its too silly going back to that 4t3a when its not giving him as much points. but urghh again thats my mind again and im not his haha 

[Paskud]

3 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

Okay thanks for clarifying what you intended to say. I guess text could really get lost in translation and I could be too sensitive as well. Trust me I am just as pessimistic. I am actually super worried which is why I am coming up with so many possibilities in my head. I have been keeping my expectation real low to put that pressure off myself and off of Yuzu. I feel like I want it to come but even fear it is gonna be either the best or worst day of my life haha its how pessimistic I am. I don't think he will ever debut a -3loop or 4a, at least not at this point. I am not even sure if he would bring the 4loop, 4t3a, 3lz or 3flip back. But I was thinking that would be the layout that would garner the most points without adding a fifth quad... and since Yuzu is who he is thats why we can never expect what he would do. And I would love for him to prove me wrong. I honestly hope that he could maybe train a -3loop combo in the future just so it gives him more combo possibilities and wont have to risk adding a new quad or seq...and honestly i feel like the layout i suggested makes more sense (get rid of the 3lz and put back the 3loop if u will) its too silly going back to that 4t3a when its not giving him as much points. but urghh again thats my mind again and im not his haha 

Imagine 4lz3lo. Eteri is quaking. 

And I think we will see 4loop. He needs it against Shoma's and Nate's scores. But everytime when I ask myself "Will he be able to do that? To win worlds? His competitors are more and more overscored." I always hear "Yeah, will be okay". Why my inner me don't want to be more dramatic!

I probably would be more worried, if not that leaked video from the beginning of January.

[holina]

I think his FS layout may depend on the results of the SP, as well as other competitor’s FS score (if Yuzu is skating after them).  Remember he is a guy who would calculate the points for all the possibilities and even change layout on the spot.  The 4T3A he performed in Helsinki didn’t get a good GOE and so he may be kuyashii about it 

Of course it will also depend on how he feels about his ankle.  I hope he doesn’t do anything too crazy and think about his long term health rather than the short term result of this one (although important) competition 

[Old Cat Lady]

Yuzu

I did some calculations.  I think based on what Yuzu's performed in competition, his layout will be

SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t*

FS: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t*, 3a/e/3s*

Using his highest scores of the season for each element, he gets 110.72+213.85 = 324.57  

 

I believe that he'll have the 4 loop for worlds, but if he doesn't, his projected score is

SP: 110.72

FS: 3lz, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t*, 3a/e/3s* = 209.22

Total Score:319.94 - this is calculated with him getting 3.5 GOE on the 3Lz.

 

I also used actual competition scores to calculate potential scores

Rostelecom SP: 110.53

Helsinki FS: Actual TES of 98.01 + 20.7 in points lost due to errors and adding in his highest PCS from this season of 96.16

Total score: 325.4

 

 

Nathan

He did pretty similar layouts for GPF and Nationals.  I doubt he'll add the 4s 

SP: 3a, 4f, 4t/3t*

FS: 4f, 4lz, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3lz/3t*, 3f/e/3s* 

Using highest GOE/PCS scores of the season: 108.49+209.69= 318.18

 

Using GPF scores: 

SP: Actual TES 48.78+ 12.63 points lost due to fall/loss of combo + highest PCS of season = 106.92

FS: Actual TES of 101.79 + 18.19 points lost due to mistakes + highest PCS = 211

Total Score = 317.92

 

I don't think he'll do a 5 quad free skate, but if he manages a 3 GOE on a 4s with the following layout

4f, 4lz, 4t/3t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4s*, 3f/e/3s* = 214.30

Total Score = 322.79

 

Shoma

SP: 4f, 4t/3t, 3a*

FS: 4s, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/e/3f*, 3s/3t*

Highest GOE/PCS scores: 106.55 + 207.57 = 314.12

One thing to note is that this score includes < for 4s.  He's been called for it in every event except Lombardia where he stepped out so his score ended up being lower than for the 4s<.

 

Lombardia SP: Actual TES of 57.65 + points lost through doubling the 3t and lost level on StSq 4.15 = 108.38

4 Cont LP: Actual TES of 104.48 + points lost through step out of 3f and replacing 3lo with 4s 11.29 + highest PCS = 208.93

Total Score: 317.31

 

GPF SP with TES points added in: 110.57

GPF FS with TES points added in: 209.89

Total Score: 320.46

 

 

In sum, if Yuzu does 4lo, he wins even if Nathan does 5 quads.  If he doesn't have it, he's at the mercy of the technical panel.