General Skating Chat

[Xen]

Just now, Murieleirum said:

 

Well, but it's the same thing, you know. If you skate a perfect program, if all of your jumps are +3GOE (even if you don't give them 3GOE, you know they're perfect), if all the technical elements are superb, if half the public was in tears when he finished skating because of how much they were moved... that 0,25 GOE out of one jump, the 0,75 GOE of that one other jump, all these little underscorings sum up, creating a "massive" underscoring, but could have been filled by a 98, or maybe even 99 Presentation score. I agree 100% with Max on this: the judges didn't have the balls to give him 100, but that's exactly the score he deserved. Never in the history of figure skating we've seen a Program performed like H&L was in Helsinki. 

To me, the 100 score exists for a reason. Not using it when it's the case, it's just chicken behavior. 

 

He might have gotten it if he skated last, and possibly if he had a clean SP. Though honestly,  the SP mistake was not a fall and should not have detracted from scores in the LP (in my opinion)....

[xeyra]

8 minutes ago, Xen said:

He might have gotten it if he skated last, and possibly if he had a clean SP. Though honestly,  the SP mistake was not a fall and should not have detracted from scores in the LP (in my opinion)....

 

It wasn't the score that was the problem, it was the position he was in after the SP. Which eventually lead him to skate first, which is yet another issue. Usually judges tend to reward a bit more if they see good performances after good performances, I think, like what happened at GPF 2015. So if you skate last or close to it... 

[Xen]

5 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

It wasn't the score that was the problem, it was the position he was in after the SP. Which eventually lead him to skate first, which is yet another issue. Usually judges tend to reward a bit more if they see good performances after good performances, I think, like what happened at GPF 2015. So if you skate last or close to it... 

This is another issue with skating judging in general...the first skater on the ice in the group is usually going to be underscored, simply because judges feel the need to keep some points in reserve for later skaters. Realistically, that should not be the case at all...

 

Speaking of which, in the general chat, it seems Yuzu is back in a solid relationship with his 4T again. I wonder if a 4T-4T combo would actually be easier than a lone 4A to execute? Since the Toe Loop is an easier jump to rotate...

[xeyra]

1 hour ago, Xen said:

Speaking of which, in the general chat, it seems Yuzu is back in a solid relationship with his 4T again. I wonder if a 4T-4T combo would actually be easier than a lone 4A to execute? Since the Toe Loop is an easier jump to rotate...

 

He did try 4T-1Lo-4T at Worlds gala but I don't remember seeing him try a quad-4T. Not even a 3A-4T.

[kaeryth]

Theory time! So... I just realised when Yuzu said during the small medal's ceremony in Helsinki that he spent the night studying his short program he might've not meant just LGC. I think he was analysing stats like you guys and came to the same conclusion that having a not so clean SP has caused him a lot of trouble. He's got meticulous notes/stats/analysis...

 

 

I think that's why he looked surprised at his score for H&L; he expected to go above 200 but he didn't expect to break his record. I mean, this guy knows his scoring potential. At WC 2015 he predicted his SP to be 95. At NHK 2015 SP you can hear Orser at the K&C say "106?" and Yuzu replied "I hope so.." You can also clearly see that he knows when judges are being generous to him - 2017 4CC SP and I think 2013 2013 4CC SP as well.

 

So, maybe that's when he started thinking about Chopin. As a side note this troll said that he didn't know yet what he would be skating to for his next season and then we find out he'd been thinking about Chopin since after his LP as Helsinki... Conclusion: Never trust Zuzu.

[Xen]

27 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

Theory time! So... I just realised when Yuzu said during the small medal's ceremony in Helsinki that he spent the night studying his short program he might've not meant just LGC. I think he was analysing stats like you guys and came to the same conclusion that having a not so clean SP has caused him a lot of trouble. He's got meticulous notes/stats/analysis...

 

I think that's why he looked surprised at his score for H&L; he expected to go above 200 but he didn't expect to break his record. I mean, this guy knows his scoring potential. At WC 2015 he predicted his SP to be 95. At NHK 2015 SP you can hear Orser at the K&C say "106?" and Yuzu replied "I hope so.." You can also clearly see that he knows when judges are being generous to him - 2017 4CC SP and I think 2013 2013 4CC SP as well.

 

So, maybe that's when he started thinking about Chopin. As a side note this troll said that he didn't know yet what he would be skating to for his next season and then we find out he'd been thinking about Chopin since after his LP as Helsinki... Conclusion: Never trust Zuzu. 

To think he might have done this all by hand...by haaannnd

How did he resist the urge of excel?

If he loves manipulating systems numbers like that, the boy has a future as a game designer too now...

 

[xeyra]

54 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

Theory time! So... I just realised when Yuzu said during the small medal's ceremony in Helsinki that he spent the night studying his short program he might've not meant just LGC. I think he was analysing stats like you guys and came to the same conclusion that having a not so clean SP has caused him a lot of trouble. He's got meticulous notes/stats/analysis...

 

 

 

 

Wait. which video are these from? Good heavens, man, learn to use spreadsheets!

[Dara]

8 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

Wait. which video are these from? Good heavens, man, learn to use spreadsheets!

It's from 2012 or 2013 I think... He showed his "practice note".

Maybe he just likes making notes by hand? I usually use all kinds of spreadsheets and Evernote notes, but for some things (like schedule of Yuzu's appearances) I prefer writing notes on paper by hand.

Oh and I just recalled that he mentioned Evernote before!

 

“And also, I have the muscle diagram in my head.  When I was in elementary school, I read an illustrated encyclopedia and I really liked it.  Recently, I got a MacBook Air, and using an application, I look at what is attached to where in 3D. (laughs)  In this way, I can link up what I studied with my own senses.  It is very different when you move a muscle while thinking ‘oh it is this muscle that is moving’.   In the Evernote of my MacBook Air, I write down in English all the muscles that I am concerned about.”

from Aoi Honoo 2, translation by yuzusorbet

 

[kaeryth]

This documentary that was shown around 2013 (before Sochi). Start at 38:25.

 

 

Brief summary of his notes:

Red circles are jumps landed cleanly.

Blue circles are missed jumps or jumps he didn't like.

Green circles are underrotated jumps

[fluffypooh]

12 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

This documentary that was shown around 2013 (before Sochi). Start at 38:25.

 

 

Brief summary of his notes:

Red circles are jumps landed cleanly.

Blue circles are missed jumps or jumps he didn't like.

Green circles are underrotated jumps

yea i think his notes had a lot of description too, and different situation, not just the number so that's probably why he didn't use excel

[xeyra]

A few more observations from the STATISTICS TAB:

 

GOE

• Yuzuru has the highest GOE average in the SP (6.75) and the FS (12.88);
• Boyang has the lowest GOE average in the SP (2.08);
• Nathan has the lowest GOE average in the FS (2.12) but is only 0.02 points lower than Boyang's average GOE;
• When it comes to the difference between highest and lowest GOE, Yuzuru has the lowest difference (7.13) and Boyang the highest (15.06) in the SP but it's not the same with the FS where Yuzuru has the highest difference (21.51) and Patrick the lowest (9.98);
• The highest standard deviation (variation relative to the mean) in the SP belongs to Boyang (6.19) and the lowest to Yuzuru (2.64). In the FS, it is however Boyang who has the highest (8.28) and Shoma the lowest (3.61);
• Despite his f*ck ups with the combo and/or 4Lo, Yuzuru maintained a relative steady stream of positive average GOEs in the SP (helped by his 3A and his non-jump elements). LGC was a good SP for him and the judges agreed: he just needed to skate it clean and they'd have showered him with even more GOEs;
• In the FS, there were many highs and lows for the men (Yuzu ) but Shoma and Patrick managed to maintain the steadiest GOEs, relative to their averages.

BV

• To no one's surprise Nathan wins the BV average game in the SP (50.40) and the FS (102.12). Patrick had the lowest in both (41.14 and 81.83 respectively);
• The difference between highest and lowest BV in the SP is largest with Yuzuru (17.70) and lowest with Boyang (5.30);
• As for the standard deviation, Yuzuru has the highest value in the SP (7.28) and Boyang the lowest (2.19). Simply put, Yuzuru's SP BV oscilated too damn much and Boyang was the steadiest;
• For the FS, this difference is highest in Shoma (23.09) and lowest in Javi (11.64). Shoma did change his FS layout quite significantly in the later part of the season (with adding a 4Lo and an extra quad). The standard deviation reflects this as well. Nathan started the season with 5 quads and then changed BVs between 4 to 6 quads layouts through the season, so this difference isn't as high as Shoma's.

PCS

• Average SP PCS go to Javi (46.57), though Yuzuru isn't far behind. Who said judges didn't like LGC again? Javi wins in the FS PCS score as well. To no one's surprise, Boyang had the lowest average PCS in both segments;
• Difference is lowest with Javi between the highest and lowest PCS both for the SP (2.95) and the FS (3.86). The difference is highest with Nathan in the SP (5.79) and FS (14.00). He also wins the highest standard deviation in both segments, so Nathan indeed had the highest differences in PCS from the top 6 men. Spending time with Marina, landing those quads and/or being the new American hope did wonders for his PCS.

SCORE

• Javi won the SP average score and Yuzuru the FS. The following table describes the average score positioning:

SHORT PROGRAM	FREE SKATE
JAVIER FERNANDEZ (98.64)	YUZURU HANYU (195.86)
SHOMA UNO (95.70)	SHOMA UNO (192.19)
YUZURU HANYU (93.90)	JAVIER FERNANDEZ (190.00)
NATHAN CHEN (93.33)	NATHAN CHEN (186.05)
BOYANG JIN (91.41)	BOYANG JIN (182.05)
PATRICK CHAN (90.66)	PATRICK CHAN (181.02)

• The difference between scores is highest with Yuzuru for both SP (26.88) and FS. Get ready for this: the difference between his lowest FS score at Autumn Classic and his highest at Worlds is a whooping 50.93 points! Talk about not doing things in half measures;
• Patrick actually had the lowest difference in the FS scores (19.92) and Javi in the SP (17.50);
• Standard deviation is actually highest for Boyang in the SP and for Yuzuru in the FS. It's lowest for Nathan in the SP and for Javi in the FS. Meaning the latter's scores diverged the least from their average score amongst the men in the respective segment.

[Xen]

1 hour ago, xeyra said:

The difference between scores is highest with Yuzuru for both SP (26.88) and FS. Get ready for this: the difference between his lowest FS score at Autumn Classic and his highest at Worlds is a whooping 50.93 points! Talk about not doing things in half measures;

• Patrick actually had the lowest difference in the FS scores (19.92) and Javi in the SP (17.50);
• Standard deviation is actually highest for Boyang in the SP and for Yuzuru in the FS. It's lowest for Nathan in the SP and for Javi in the FS. Meaning their scores diverged the least from their average score amongst the men in the respective segment.

So we can now quantify our heart attacks at 50.93 points. 

Hope he has a more stable season. But from this, it does seem to indicate that of the top 6, Yuzu, Shoma and Javi are probably the top 3 now, even if we do debate about Shoma's GOE scores. 

[Pammi]

17 hours ago, fluffypooh said:

yea i think his notes had a lot of description too, and different situation, not just the number so that's probably why he didn't use excel

Even his notes look perfect

[randomanon]

8 minutes ago, Pamyu said:

Even his notes look perfect

 

same  I love the way he systematically records/ organises everything... and his handwriting is so neat lol

 

[CupidsBow]

Oh since we are posting statistics, someone on twitter wanted to know some stats for Chopin and how it compared to LGC and I was bored so:-

 

	Chopin 2014-15	Chopin 2015-16	LGC 2016-17
Planned BV	44.36	47.75	49.75
Average BV	40.04 (-4.32)	42.45 (-5.3)	42.5 (-7.25)
Highest BV	44.36 (x2)	48.05 (x2)	49.75 (x2)
Lowest BV	32.21	21.5	32.05
Average GOE	4.6 (9.99%)	10.02 (19.09%)	7.18 (14.45%)
Average PCS	44.6	47.16	46.28
Average Total	90.14	99.47	95.83

 

- for each season, the planned content was performed twice / the highest BV skated was performed twice.

- 15-16 has the biggest outlier thanks to that time all his jumps except the 3A were invalidated,

- LGC had the most errors that resulted in lower BV but still managed to receive fairly high GOE 

- H&L had an average GOE of 11.7% of the TES 

- Despite more consistent errors in LGC the PCS didn't really get penalised that much on average

- however the difference between 15-16 and LGC would have been bigger if i didn't include that outlier

 

It's worth noting I included scores from WTT and Japanese Nationals when applicable which could generate difference if other averages were worked out with only international competitions included.