General Skating Chat

[xeyra]

This is completely unrelated to Yuzu or the Men's, but this is a really interesting study on Ladies jump height and rotational speed. It's in Russian but the tables are understandable anyway. 

 

Hoping they do one for the men too!

 

Interesting tidbits: Ashley's 3T has the same height as Mai's, but the reason why Ashley tends to UR it more than Mai is because her rotational speed is slower for that same height. You need to rotate faster the lower your jumps are, and thus Ashley's UR issues. This seems to be the general problem with Ashley's jumps too. Satoko, on the other hand, always has the lowest jumps but she's one of the fastest in her rotations. 

 

Alternatively, Gabby Daleman makes up for her slower rotational speed by having some of the highest jumps! Polina Tsurskaya too. 

 

The study calculated total combined jump height and max rotational speed on a jump but I would have liked to see height and rotational speed averages. 

[FCSSp4]

I'd love jump analysis like that for the men. It'd be really interesting to see where Yuzuru's jumps fall in with the rest, he and Javi have the most consistent quality in their jumping passes among the men imo.

 

Interesting that Wakaba doesn't have the highest jumps or fastest rotation but she has them both which is pretty rare and speaks a lot about the quality of her jumps. Wish we had Kaori on there too, her jumps are huge... Also I suspect that the lack of height in jumps might have something to do with consistency in some cases too (eg. Miyahara).

[xeyra]

Also, toe assisted jumps tend to have the most height, as expected, except the 3T, because it's mostly ever used as the second jump in a combination, thus it tends to be lower since it comes out of the landing speed of the previous jump. Polina's (and Karen/Elizabeta too, actually) 3Lz height is insane. 

 

Agree about Wakaba. Good height and good rotational speed is a great balance to have. Alina Zagitova too has sort of average height in her jump but rotates fast! Both their jumps do tend to look very good. And, what do you know, they'll both be at Lombardia this week. 

[xeyra]

Comparative Scale of Values for triple and quadruple jumps, comparing current season with 2018-2019 season proposed changes, taking into account the interpretation we've all had with the 10% increment on GOE based on BV as described in the article:

 

 

If their goal is to allow for people with good triples to catch up on quads... then I doubt we'll see many +4 and +5 on the latter..... or we will, and we'll have even higher TES scores than we have now!

 

Edit: However, negative GOE/falls on quads will be a LOT more damaging. Which means a good triple program could theoretically outscore a 4 quad program with plenty negative GOE/some falls.

 

Edit 2: So, given the risk/rewards, do we think we'll see people hold back on quads? As was pre-2010 before they raised their value?

[Murieleirum]

9 hours ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

Or you know ... let me do less quads with more content so by the time I put in all these quads, the judges will give me the same PCS I had with that content instead of what I deserve for my empty program ... yes, I'm a cynic. 

 

I doubt he'll have the time to do this, but it may be true... I didn't go this far with speculation xD 

[Xen]

1 hour ago, xeyra said:

This is completely unrelated to Yuzu or the Men's, but this is a really interesting study on Ladies jump height and rotational speed. It's in Russian but the tables are understandable anyway. 

 

Hoping they do one for the men too!

 

Interesting tidbits: Ashley's 3T has the same height as Mai's, but the reason why Ashley tends to UR it more than Mai is because her rotational speed is slower for that same height. You need to rotate faster the lower your jumps are, and thus Ashley's UR issues. This seems to be the general problem with Ashley's jumps too. Satoko, on the other hand, always has the lowest jumps but she's one of the fastest in her rotations. 

 

Alternatively, Gabby Daleman makes up for her slower rotational speed by having some of the highest jumps! Polina Tsurskaya too. 

 

The study calculated total combined jump height and max rotational speed on a jump but I would have liked to see height and rotational speed averages. 

This is amazing! I'm in awe of Karen Chen and Gabby's jump heights, since they're not that tall (they're both under 160 cm I think?). It would be amazing to see something similar for the men.

 

Also, forgot if it was you or someone else, but I found the 2 blog articles about jump height and air time:

1) Min Air time for various jumps

2) Min jump height based on min air time

I'm not sure if this is the one used to calculate Yuzu's 4A height, but we could probably figure it out?

 

As for quads- it just cements the clean 4T and 4S as standards for the men trying to enter the top 6. Since clean 3A alone won't do the trick.  Based on the tables alone, unless the top 6 guys with quads mess up majorly,  an all triples program won't cut it even if you nail +5 GOE all the time. For the ladies, if a single lady ever lands a clean 3A or 4T or 4S, well that 'll be hard to catch up. Well Boyang did say he wanted to try an all quad program....and Nathan, if he can be consistent, will benefit majorly from this when we go to 7 jumping passes (all quads and 1-2 2As).

34 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

Edit 2: So, given the risk/rewards, do we think we'll see people hold back on quads? As was pre-2010 before they raised their value?

[cirelle]

2 hours ago, xeyra said:

Edit: However, negative GOE/falls on quads will be a LOT more damaging. Which means a good triple program could theoretically outscore a 4 quad program with plenty negative GOE/some falls.

 

 

Yuzu's goal of consistency seems like excellent preparation for the +/-5 GOE change next season.

 

There's probably no info yet, but will a fall give automatic -5 GOE, plus the deduction? That'd be really... something. Especially since I doubt the judges will give out +5 as often. They really seem to want to encourage skaters to play it safe, which I can't understand. (Nothing new but: I like men's skating more than women's because of the quads AND the artistry. And likewise I like women's gymnastics more than men's because they have more artistry and not only athleticism.) 

[xeyra]

2 hours ago, Xen said:

As for quads- it just cements the clean 4T and 4S as standards for the men trying to enter the top 6. Since clean 3A alone won't do the trick.  Based on the tables alone, unless the top 6 guys with quads mess up majorly,  an all triples program won't cut it even if you nail +5 GOE all the time. For the ladies, if a single lady ever lands a clean 3A or 4T or 4S, well that 'll be hard to catch up. Well Boyang did say he wanted to try an all quad program....and Nathan, if he can be consistent, will benefit majorly from this when we go to 7 jumping passes (all quads and 1-2 2As).

 

But negative GOE on quads can be very costly in the new system.

 

I was extrapolating the new system on Nathan's Worlds layout and even though it's impossible to say how the +1/+2/+3/0/-1/-2/-3 would in reality be comparable to the new GOE margins, I assumed a fall was automatic -5 GOE and any +1 was transformed into +2, +2 into +3 and +3 into +4 (doubting we'll see many +5 at all). I was slightly more generous on negative GOE.

 

As for the factoring on GOE, I used only the BV of the first jump in combos, without bonus. 

 

Regardless, what I found out is two falls on quads IS very costly. Even with neutral GOE on all the negative jumping passes he had at Worlds, Nathan would get less TES in the new system because of those two falls.  

 

Edit: this would only be true, of course, if negative GOE used the same percentage of BV as positive GOE and if a fall would be -5 GOE. This seems extremely discouraging of quads if so.

[Valkyria]

I'm still getting Vancouver flashbacks with all these numbers. Yes, the added risk on falls with the diminished gain in BV might make skaters think twice before filling up a layout with #allthequads and put a stop to the race, but consistent layouts of 2-3 quads would still get a significant advantage. So we'd get guys with stable quads probably keeping (some of) them and taking that risk vs guys with less tech trying to maximize GOE and "artistry" to compensate and... I've been through this before. The moment someone with quads has a not perfect but still good program and loses to someone with all triples, drama is going to unfold. The quads will always be considered harder because of the extra rotation, that's just how it is, and the perception of situations like these will always leave a lot of room for speculation because "artistry" can't be quantified but BV can.

 

And if enough guys keep their quads and manage some consistency, there still won't be much room for the less tech-savvy, anyway. The problem is still there 

[Moria Polonius]

8 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

 

I agree. This is one of the major reasons I never got hooked before. All I heard from our commentators was salchow salchow salchow, and with an American pronunciation rendering it super impossible to even know how to spell it (like how they pronounce solder "sawder.") I had to remember it as the "lady pig-cow jump." Also a lot of "lol@gay Johnny Weir and his crazy costumes." Never did I hear anyone explain the requirements of the programs, the difference between various jumps or spin positions, or anything technical at all. It was assumed that if you were watching you already knew everything which is an utterly ridiculous assumption to make in a country with no ice! 

 

In Polish TV we've got 2 sets of commentators, the Eurosport ones and the TVP ones. The Eurosport ones have a tendency to gush (the ones who adore Yuzu) and the TVP ones are very tech-focused. They don't just call the jumps, they comment how they factor in the score. For example, for last Worlds they commented that Kevin Reynolds was a whole different level, when he was the first to jump 2 different quads, pointed out how drastically the score jumped up after Boyang's Lutz or Yuzu's 4S-3t, that Yuzu's 4Lo was "a strong accent", that Nathan's quad contet had potential for enormous score, the commented on Yuzu's GOE for some jumps, "close to perfection". (And they commented how they didn't like Shoma's Loop as muchbas Yuzu's ). They never forget to mention the SP scores. When I listen to them, I'm torn between appreciating that they don't talk too much and being annoyed that they're all about the tech. In the light of this debate, however, this sort of approach might be exactly what's needed. 

[Murieleirum]

35 minutes ago, Moria Polonius said:

When I listen to them, I'm torn between appreciating that they don't talk too much and being annoyed that they're all about the tech. In the light of this debate, however, this sort of approach might be exactly what's needed. 

 

If they only talk about tech but say all correct things, damn, that's already a lot! It means they know what they're talking about! In Italy, we have the mytical Max and Angelo commentary which focuses on tech but of course considers PCS and everything else as well, and then e have the RAI commentators, whom don't even know what a counter is, and only make empty compliments when they think the performance was great/clean, and heavily favour some skaters instead of others. I remember, I'm not sure if it was GPF 2010 or another comp, but they went ahead and talked about how they preferred Takahashi 100 times over Patrick Chan, and didn't think Chan should have won, for 10 minutes straight, without talking tech, or PCS, in a professional manner. 

[Xen]

1 hour ago, xeyra said:

 

But negative GOE on quads can be very costly in the new system.

 

I was extrapolating the new system on Nathan's Worlds layout and even though it's impossible to say how the +1/+2/+3/0/-1/-2/-3 would in reality be comparable to the new GOE margins, I assumed a fall was automatic -5 GOE and any +1 was transformed into +2, +2 into +3 and +3 into +4 (doubting we'll see many +5 at all). I was slightly more generous on negative GOE.

 

As for the factoring on GOE, I used only the BV of the first jump in combos, without bonus. 

 

Regardless, what I found out is two falls on quads IS very costly. Even with neutral GOE on all the negative jumping passes he had at Worlds, Nathan would get less TES in the new system because of those two falls.  

 

Edit: this would only be true, of course, if negative GOE used the same percentage of BV as positive GOE and if a fall would be -5 GOE. This seems extremely discouraging of quads if so.

I don't think the judges would give out that many -5 GOEs, that would be too discouraging. So -1 or -2 GOE for the first 2 or so falls. Actually I would use Nate's skate from GPF. And given how clean he can be in the SP, then his SP TES scores could be atrociously high.  I also don't think we'll see that many 0 GOEs, since I think quads, due to being quads, will usually automatically net a GOE bullet for height and distance (since no absolute min height has ben set).  The 0 GOE might go to step outs etc, touch downs maybe? But that means the quad could still be higher value than an 3A, as a 3A would have to net 20% (+2) to be competitve against a 4T with 0 GOE.

 

57 minutes ago, Valkyria said:

I'm still getting Vancouver flashbacks with all these numbers. Yes, the added risk on falls with the diminished gain in BV might make skaters think twice before filling up a layout with #allthequads and put a stop to the race, but consistent layouts of 2-3 quads would still get a significant advantage. So we'd get guys with stable quads probably keeping (some of) them and taking that risk vs guys with less tech trying to maximize GOE and "artistry" to compensate and... I've been through this before. The moment someone with quads has a not perfect but still good program and loses to someone with all triples, drama is going to unfold. The quads will always be considered harder because of the extra rotation, that's just how it is, and the perception of situations like these will always leave a lot of room for speculation because "artistry" can't be quantified but BV can.

 

And if enough guys keep their quads and manage some consistency, there still won't be much room for the less tech-savvy, anyway. The problem is still there 

This is why, despite my lament towards the PCS scores being less than 50%, I'm not sure I'm okay with PCS points being too dominant. PCS is possibly even more subjective than GOE scores, and this would allow the big feds to be even more dominant. There was mention a couple pages ago that some people in the skating judging world do not think Asians can be expressive/artistic-well, whatever that means. But I can imagine that some might be a bit annoyed by how many asian bell-curve destroyers there are right now in skating. The last world podium had 3 asian men, the next quad cycle for ladies is probably going to be Japan vs Russia, China's always a threat in Pairs.

 

It did get mentioned in a different forum, that if we go for an artistic program, it's highly likely to be dominated by the north american , canadian, european skaters similar to the status quo in Ice Dance, as the prevelance of warhorses indicate, tastes are conservative and defined by western/anglo-saxon preferences. Honestly, minus the Shibutani's (who are backed by the USFSA), have we seen another asian face in ice dancing crop up in the top 5 teams, in either seniors or juniors even? Let's not even get into Latinos, Africans etc....

[xeyra]

1 minute ago, Xen said:

I don't think the judges would give out that many -5 GOEs, that would be too discouraging. So -1 or -2 GOE for the first 2 or so falls. Actually I would use Nate's skate from GPF. And given how clean he can be in the SP, then his SP TES scores could be atrociously high.  I also don't think we'll see that many 0 GOEs, since I think quads, due to being quads, will usually automatically net a GOE bullet for height and distance (since no absolute min height has ben set).  The 0 GOE might go to step outs etc, touch downs maybe? But that means the quad could still be higher value than an 3A, as a 3A would have to net 20% (+2) to be competitve against a 4T with 0 GOE.

 

Yeah, it seems rather overkill to punish falls on quads THAT much. Using the 10% out of BV percentage for the GOE intervals, -2 GOE on a fall would take about -2.30 out of a 11.50 BV 4Lz. That'd be worth 9.2 (previously a fall on a 4Lz quad would be worth 9.6). So I can see that but at the same time, why have -5 GOE at all? Unless the interval percentage on negative GOE is lower than the 10% mentioned. 

 

I also just realized we also have to account for one less jumping pass when thinking about TES with the new system, actually. One jump is going to be cut, so I wonder if any person with quads will cut a quad or a triple...

[Xen]

Just now, xeyra said:

I also just realized we also have to account for one less jumping pass when thinking about TES with the new system, actually. One jump is going to be cut, so I wonder if any person with quads will cut a quad or a triple...

How about this layout, which I think is actually quite doable by most of the top 6 men these days:

4T 4Lz// 4Lo 4T-3T 4S3T 3A-L-2T 3A with an average of +2 GOEs across the board. For Shoma and Nate, we can replace the 4Lo with a 4F.

 

Also, what if judges score GOEs differently? What will we do with the BV scaling if the skater gets an average GOE of +2.4 or +3.5 from the 9 judges? o_O

 

 

[xeyra]

5 minutes ago, Xen said:

How about this layout, which I think is actually quite doable by most of the top 6 men these days:

4T 4Lz// 4Lo 4T-3T 4S3T 3A-L-2T 3A with an average of +2 GOEs across the board. For Shoma and Nate, we can replace the 4Lo with a 4F.

 

Also, what if judges score GOEs differently? What will we do with the BV scaling if the skater gets an average GOE of +2.4 or +3.5 from the 9 judges? o_O

 

 

 

Do you mean 3A-1lo-3S or 3F here?