Grand Prix assignments and how they work

[Hannah]

No I mean if he gets SC and TDF? Why not TDF as a second assignment?

[Moria Polonius]

47 minutes ago, Hannah said:

No I mean if he gets SC and TDF? Why not TDF as a second assignment?

 

If he doesn't go to NHK, then SC and TdF is a good combination. Possibly the best for him, time-wise.

[beki]

Here is Yuzuru's GP history (sorry for bad table formatting).

 

1st GP = 29% of the time. First time was NHK. Second time SA followed his World bronze. Doesn't hate it, but prefers 2nd GP?

2nd GP = 43%. Since he's had a choice and Patrick wasn't a top seed. A safe bet according to history.

3rd GP = 29%. Feels like bad juju now. Always happened in combo with 6th GP. Can't face Boyang.

4th GP = 0%. Doesn't like? The only thing that could make a (big) difference is that it's NHK this year. Can't face Shoma? Who will they pick?

5th GP = 29%. He went to the 2nd and 5th GPs in the last Olympic year.

6th GP = 71%. Veery interesting... because it's usually NHK or because it's last?

 

NHK Trophy = 71%

Skate Canada = 43%

Cup of Russia = 29% / Cup of China = 29%

Trophée de France = 14% / Skate America = 14%

 

(1) Preferred gaps scenario suggests Skate Canada and Skate America.

(2) Last Olympic year suggests Skate Canada and Trophée de France.

(3) Love for Japan/ace status suggests NHK. Smack in the middle, which he's never done.

     So what to combine with it? The earliest GP, Rostelecom? Or two picks with less travel, 2nd Skate Canada, or 6th Skate America?

     Politically speaking, strange things could happen at SA.

 

My takeaway: maybe I will buy that ticket to SC now. It's a possibility in any scenario. My clicking finger will also be ready for TdF and NHK.

 

17/18	CoR Oct.19-22	SC Oct.26-29	CoC Nov.2-5	NHK Nov.9-12	TdF Nov.16-19	SA Nov.24-26	GPF Dec.7-10
16/17		SC Oct.28-30				NHK Nov.25-27	GPF Dec.8-11
15/16		SC Oct.30-Nov.1				NHK Nov.27-29	GPF Dec.10-13
14/15			CoC Nov.7-9			NHK Nov.28-30	GPF Dec.11-14
13/14 Olys		SC Oct.25-27			TEB Nov.15-17		GPF Dec.5-8
12/13	SA Oct.19-21					NHK Nov.23-25	GPF Dec.6-9
11/12			CoC Nov.4-6			CoR Nov.25-27	GPF Dec.8-11
10/11	NHK Oct.22-24				CoR Nov.19-21		GPF Dec.9-12

 

 

 

[ShiroKJ]

2 hours ago, Moria Polonius said:

Off topic: ShiroK, what an awesome avatar! It looks so CLAMPy! 

 

Isn't it? All her pieces are amazing but this one is just so gorgeous  

 

 

 

[mushroombb]

1 hour ago, beki said:

Here is Yuzuru's GP history (sorry for bad table formatting).

 

1st GP = 29% of the time. First time was NHK. Second time SA followed his World bronze. Doesn't hate it, but prefers 2nd GP?

2nd GP = 43%. Since he's had a choice and Patrick wasn't a top seed. A safe bet according to history.

3rd GP = 29%. Feels like bad juju now. Always happened in combo with 6th GP. Can't face Boyang.

4th GP = 0%. Doesn't like? The only thing that could make a (big) difference is that it's NHK this year. Can't face Shoma? Who will they pick?

5th GP = 29%. He went to the 2nd and 5th GPs in the last Olympic year.

6th GP = 71%. Veery interesting... because it's usually NHK or because it's last?

 

NHK Trophy = 71%

Skate Canada = 43%

Cup of Russia = 29% / Cup of China = 29%

Trophée de France = 14% / Skate America = 14%

 

(1) Preferred gaps scenario suggests Skate Canada and Skate America.

(2) Last Olympic year suggests Skate Canada and Trophée de France.

(3) Love for Japan/ace status suggests NHK. Smack in the middle, which he's never done.

     So what to combine with it? The earliest GP, Rostelecom? Or two picks with less travel, 2nd Skate Canada, or 6th Skate America?

     Politically speaking, strange things could happen at SA.

 

My takeaway: maybe I will buy that ticket to SC now. It's a possibility in any scenario. My clicking finger will also be ready for TdF and NHK.

 

17/18	CoR Oct.19-22	SC Oct.26-29	CoC Nov.2-5	NHK Nov.9-12	TdF Nov.16-19	SA Nov.24-26	GPF Dec.7-10
16/17		SC Oct.28-30				NHK Nov.25-27	GPF Dec.8-11
15/16		SC Oct.30-Nov.1				NHK Nov.27-29	GPF Dec.10-13
14/15			CoC Nov.7-9			NHK Nov.28-30	GPF Dec.11-14
13/14 Olys		SC Oct.25-27			TEB Nov.15-17		GPF Dec.5-8
12/13	SA Oct.19-21					NHK Nov.23-25	GPF Dec.6-9
11/12			CoC Nov.4-6			CoR Nov.25-27	GPF Dec.8-11
10/11	NHK Oct.22-24				CoR Nov.19-21		GPF Dec.9-12

 

 

 

wowwww thanks for all the stats and stuff haha. yeah yuzuru always does best closest to gpf and i'm not sure if it's bc it's the last gp or nhk. if he goes for nhk (and esp. with jsf pressure i guess???) it'll be harder for a good time gap between nhk and his other assigned gp. if he goes with the last gp, that's skate america, but that just seems really unlikely for him to go to both north american gps (assuming he does skate canada ofc)

[beki]

You're right, I don't expect two NA GPs. He could do NHK and SA. I just think that if he wants to peak at the Olympics, it's better to be more frontloaded in the GP series. This year he finally peaked at Worlds, but now everything has to be shifted forward six weeks (though I'm sure he still wants to win the GPF). Also, USFS will want Nathan to win. To combine with NHK, I would still guess 1) SC, 2) CoR and 3) SA. Of course, in the end, I am only guessing, and your guess is as good as mine 

[itiahs]

5 hours ago, beki said:

Here is Yuzuru's GP history (sorry for bad table formatting).

 

1st GP = 29% of the time. First time was NHK. Second time SA followed his World bronze. Doesn't hate it, but prefers 2nd GP?

2nd GP = 43%. Since he's had a choice and Patrick wasn't a top seed. A safe bet according to history.

3rd GP = 29%. Feels like bad juju now. Always happened in combo with 6th GP. Can't face Boyang.

4th GP = 0%. Doesn't like? The only thing that could make a (big) difference is that it's NHK this year. Can't face Shoma? Who will they pick?

5th GP = 29%. He went to the 2nd and 5th GPs in the last Olympic year.

6th GP = 71%. Veery interesting... because it's usually NHK or because it's last?

 

NHK Trophy = 71%

Skate Canada = 43%

Cup of Russia = 29% / Cup of China = 29%

Trophée de France = 14% / Skate America = 14%

Thanks for the stats!

I wonder if it'll make any difference that SA is in an olympic sized rink this time ... I'm not sure about SC, couldn't find any information

[beki]

Selfishly I hope it isn't SA, even though I'm American. There's no way I can get to Lake Placid over Thanksgiving! 

[ralucutzagy]

I think SC is a lock ... than maybe NHK again (and remain  in Japan til GPF and then after New Year return in Canada) but what if Shoma does NHK too (he is the new JN champion).... it's confusing, indeed... 

[Katt]

I dont think Yuzu will do SA, US fed want Boyang there to push their skaters into podium as many as they can.Plus, he might want to avoid SA+GP+National in just 1 month. I bet on COR+NHK, but SC+TEB is possible too.  

[beki]

One other thing we haven't considered—Virtue and Moir have said they want to do back-to-back GPs to simulate the team and individual events at the Olympics. Maybe he will want to do the same. Seems like overkill but you never know.

[yuzuangel]

Somehow I don't think Yuzu cares that much about GP politics? If so he wouldn't do SC so many years in a row. I dare USFSA to underscore him at SA. I'll be there with huge ass flags lol.

 

If he goes to SC and SA...I...will be over the moon.

[Moria Polonius]

4 hours ago, beki said:

One other thing we haven't considered—Virtue and Moir have said they want to do back-to-back GPs to simulate the team and individual events at the Olympics. Maybe he will want to do the same. Seems like overkill but you never know.

 

I think it might be dangerous for Yuzuru. If he's too tired he might do badly enough and not get into GPF - which would be a blow to Olympic momentum.

 

I've just realized how important it would be for Yuzuru do win those GPs. I want him to be in the best shape at the Olympics but winning at least the second GP a d GPF would do wonders for pumping up his reputation at Olympics. 

[Murieleirum]

If he wins GPF for the 5th year in a row, I challenge the judges not to give him the PCS he deserves during Olympics. 

But I'd rather him go easy at first. It doesn't matter if he takes two silvers to qualify for GPF... he knows when he needs to peak. 

(Of course, if he manages to enter a clean streak... no one will stop him)

[ShiroKJ]

2 hours ago, Murieleirum said:

If he wins GPF for the 5th year in a row, I challenge the judges not to give him the PCS he deserves during Olympics. 

But I'd rather him go easy at first. It doesn't matter if he takes two silvers to qualify for GPF... he knows when he needs to peak. 

(Of course, if he manages to enter a clean streak... no one will stop him)

 

Don't tempt them. Manipulation of components take little to no effort and PCS is only 1/3 of the judging worries.