Old Cat Lady

@mercedes @Legacy and Hope @Sukigirl @TeaFrida 1 hour and 40 minutes until the rhythm dance if you guys or anyone else still wants to play this round

got the news about the program change just in time. i was just about to dye my hair origin purple to see how it would look for worlds. hmm - don’t think pale blue would work in nearly black hair without frying it blond first. will have to think of some other ridiculous way to show my spirit that requires no real talent is the time deduction the same no matter how much you go over? would be hilarious if he just skated his dream Seimei with original music. the field at 4cc is watered down enough that he could spare the deduction as long as he doesn’t implode - and frankly, he spotted the field more last year with the 4t/3a seq but obviously it’s smarter to get mileage on his competition program if he’s taking it to worlds. though if that extra 30 seconds means he can better execute the elements, it would be worth the trade IF he actually gets goe that reflected it

@airi @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @Louitunes @mercedes @Paskud @ralucutzagy @river @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida @Figure_Frenzy I have the form for 4CC ready as well. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScP6CfbKuM0zcFFDb9F_Ltf6EqP45za11I1tgQibMAdwPBI1A/viewform?usp=pp_url Not all the entrants are in yet but here's a link http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent03111955.htm Let me know if you think any of the questions look like they might lead to any confusion. I also made a slight change to the scoring format. As usual, I omitted the men's podium from the predictions because of jinx factor and added extra bonus questions. But in this one, for the 3 questions in which you can check multiple boxes, I'm going to score it so you get 1 point for each correct answer, but subtract one point for each one you get wrong, meaning questions 8-10 are worth anywhere from -20 to +20 points.

This was a bit of a learning experience - I found that the questions needed to be adjusted when there's a bigger field. There were a few wording problems with the questions so I dropped the 5th BQ and on the 3rd BQ, nobody got +5 GOE elements either before or after factoring so luckily it didn't affect the score. I gave everyone the points since I did not give a tie option. Remember I have the accuracy of an average technical panel so here are everyone's answers so you can check your score - don't hesitate to speak up if something is off. I've long accepted that I'm quite absent minded https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SCQsBd-R2AY3j6RqUT0-BK5AvfEvde6su0qYNwAb5FE/edit?usp=sharing Answer Key Men's Podium 1. Dmitri Aliev 2. Artur Danielian 3. Morisi Kvitelashvili 4. Daniel Grassl Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaya 2. Scherbakova 3. Trusova 4. Paganini Pairs Podium 1. Boikova/Kozlovskii 2. Tarasova/Morozov 3. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin 4. Della Monica/Guarise Dance Podium 1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov 2. Papadakis/Cizeron 3. Stepanova/Bukin 4. Guignard/Fabbri BQ1: Will any competitor attempt a combo or jump that they have never previously landed? yes - Grassl - 4lo/3t Possibly more but I stopped as soon as I found one BQ2: Will the men's or ladies' medalists have a higher FS TES Men 269.09 259.07 BQ3: Will there be more +5 final GOE elements after factoring by Papadakis/Cizeron or the rest of the field in all disciplines combined? Tie - no +5 GOE elements BQ4: Will there be a greater than 5 placement difference between final placement and any phase of competition in any of the disciplines? Yes Daniel Grassl 4th overall 11th in SP Michel Brezina 7th overall 1st in SP Vladimir Litvintsev 9th overall 17th in SP Adam Siao Him Fa 11th overall 24th in SP Alexander Selevko 16th overall 9th in SP Larry Loupolover 23rd overall 16th in SP Viktoriia Safonova 14th overall 20th in SP Lean Serna 16th overall 10th in SP Anita Ostlund 18th overall 9th in SP EVENT RESULT Men Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 Total Points sallycinnamon 1 5 9 5 2 2 2 2 28 Louitunes 1 9 9 5 0 0 2 0 26 ralucutzagy 3 5 9 5 0 2 2 0 26 LadyLou 0 9 9 5 0 0 2 0 25 river 0 5 9 5 2 0 2 2 25 Old Cat Lady 0 5 9 4 2 0 2 2 24 Figure Frenzy 0 9 9 1 0 0 2 2 23 Sayu93 3 5 6 3 2 0 2 2 23 TeaFrida 0 5 9 2 2 0 2 2 22 airi 2 2 9 2 2 0 2 2 21 Congrats to our medalists! I believe this was the most tightly contested event. Sorry about the mishaps along the way. If Yuzu keeps competing, this will be a practice run for the games coming up so hopefully I work out the kinks. River still has quite the lead in the overall so I think I'm going to rig the bonus questions to give people a chance to catch up - just like the real ISU Of course, the likelihood is that she'll end up lapping us since I'll still try to make it actually fair. @airi @Figure_Frenzy @LadyLou @Louitunes @mercedes @ralucutzagy @river @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @TeaFrida

Yup. I meant individual placements. Also, I realized I worded BQ5 horribly in an attempt to give you guys new questions. The Euros field is so big that skaters are inevitably going to compete against skaters they haven't competed against this season. I'm thinking I'll eliminate that question from the scoring because I can see how people might misinterpret that question and I'm not trying to "get" people with trick questions, especially since not everyone speaks English as their first language. If anyone has any suggestions on a different way to deal with it, let me know

OMG! I just realized that I forgot about Papadakis/Cizeron when doing my predictions even though they're in one of the questions that I made! Not going to change it since the only reason I caught it was because I was checking who got their predictions in - feels like cheating since no one else gets that @Sayu93 Can you specify the order of the Triple A? I only give points within 1 placement difference so can't assume points without knowing who's where. As long as it's changed before the ladies SP you can still get full credit. Also, for everyone - if you don't specify placement I assume you mean in the order that you listed them.

@Legacy and Hope @mercedes @Paskud @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida Just a reminder that there's 5 more hours before the beginning of the event if you still want to play this round. If you get it in late, just skip the men's predictions and you can do the rest. Also, anyone is welcome to join if they want to play and I'll add you to the notification list.

@airi @Figure_Frenzy @LadyLou @Legacy and Hope @Louitunes @mercedes @Paskud @ralucutzagy @river @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @Sukigirl @TeaFrida I've been on vacation for the last week and didn't realize Europeans was so soon. Sorry, if this is a little late but here's the form if people still want to play. Deadline is when the first skater steps on the ice for his SP, which I believe is the men's SP in 5 days, 2.5 hours. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfZn_qmQVqMnDnTMpxRIx9y7PXr-67hGgvO1lLAX3hEqpSiUA/viewform?usp=pp_url eta: forgot the entries for Europeans http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1920/ec2020/ I changed the title to include the other ISU events but if you guys think it's easier to have a separate thread, let me know. I also corrected previous scores - we didn't do quite as abysmally as I thought on the GPF - I had the formula wrong for the totals and I fixed Legacy and Hope's score to BQ8. Here's updated totals - sorry about that. I'll make sure to post the spreadsheet to all the answers so people can check their scores. Grand Prix Final Scores Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 25 Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 23 Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 23 Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 21 Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 20 sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 19 TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 19 Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 17 ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 17 LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 17 Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 16 Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 16 mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 15 Overall Grand Prix Series Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF river 245 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 25 Legacy and Hope 236 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 23 airi 230 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 21 sallycinnamon 230 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 19 Old Cat Lady 225 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 20 LadyLou 216 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 17 Paskud 213 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 23 mercedes 196 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 15 TeaFrida 196 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 19 Louitunes 188 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 17 ralucutzagy 155 22 27 26 32 31 17 Sukigirl 107 31 33 27 16 Sayu93 102 24 26 30 22 Figure_Frenzy 93 22 26 29 16 Grand Prix event Averages Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF river 29.00 28 19 28 34 32 37 25 Legacy and Hope 28.00 31 23 31 25 31 32 23 airi 26.86 23 24 30 32 33 25 21 Sukigirl 26.75 31 33 27 16 sallycinnamon 26.29 32 22 28 23 29 31 19 Old Cat Lady 25.86 22 21 32 23 32 31 20 ralucutzagy 25.83 22 27 26 32 31 17 Paskud 25.57 23 23 23 29 33 25 23 Sayu93 25.50 24 26 30 22 LadyLou 24.57 31 20 30 25 22 27 17 Figure_Frenzy 23.25 22 26 29 16 mercedes 23.14 25 21 30 24 23 24 15 Louitunes 21.71 22 23 17 20 23 30 17 TeaFrida 21.71 18 25 22 23 21 24 19 Overall Season Scores - Includes Autumn Classic Scores Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF Qualifying GPF Autumn Classic river 266 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 25 21 sallycinnamon 255 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 19 25 airi 250 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 21 20 Old Cat Lady 246 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 20 21 LadyLou 244 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 17 28 Legacy and Hope 236 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 23 Paskud 228 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 23 15 mercedes 206 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 15 10 TeaFrida 196 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 19 Louitunes 188 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 17 ralucutzagy 155 22 27 26 32 31 17 Sukigirl 107 31 33 27 16 Sayu93 102 24 26 30 22 Figure_Frenzy 93 22 26 29 16

Nothing controversial. They just explained who he is: 1:02 Yuzuru Hanyu - Japan (Figure Skating): 2x Olympic Champion, 2x World Champion, 4x Grand Prix Final Champion. 🙌

As a side comment, it's hilarious when Yuzu gets mentioned in famous mixed company platforms. The Google year in search is overrun with majority Yuzu comments with a few befuddled "why is everyone talking about this Yuzuru Hanyu guy?" comments. I wonder what people running these things think when the reaction is mostly about a 1 second clip of this guy that most of them have probably barely heard of. ISU has a comment there too - how do they not know at this point that the reaction is going to be bad any time they get involved with a Yuzu thing?

I think Nathan's only ever landed it once at 2017 U.S. Classic. I know he had hip surgery (due to growth issues) in his junior days but no reason was given for why he dropped it after that. Literally every 4s that I've ever seen Shoma land has been ur around a quarter and I think most of his attempts are either popped or fall. He landed the 4lo 7 times in 2017 and 2018 but not since JPN nats and I heard he had to change the position of his blade in order to do it and has since changed it back. I feel pretty confident that loop is completely gone. I thought Yuzu wasn't in Faoi this coming year. But that's offset by all the things he'll be doing for the Olympics so not sure if he'll be any less busy I admit to listening to them but only because I have a masochistic compulsion to listen to anything that might be Yuzu related. But one of the things that struck me is how poorly they understand the scoring system. More than the average fans, but I really cringed a lot last year when Dave would explain the scoring system to the fans. Jonathon at least doesn't pretend to know. However, I think Jonathon has improved a lot over the years (in the past, he was really just a casual fan that happened to be friends with Dave - clearly knew nothing about scoring and didn't watch all the events) and tends to at least ask the more insightful questions and is more fair in his observations. Dave I think is obviously influenced by his bias but I've noticed that when he gets enough feedback he eventually can bend his views (though he never acknowledges that he may have been wrong previously). E.G. last year, Dave would score Nathan's spins +4 but in this recent video, he talked about how awful Nathan's flying camel is for a skater of this level. He also went from talking about how Shoma deserved a +4 (?) for his 4flip and defended that score in the comments when people inevitably disputed that score but in a later video he talked about how he had to reduce the GOE because of the poor entry

This was a disaster for everyone so you still finished 2nd. This is by far the lowest scoring event. Everyone's answers - let me know if something doesn't look right: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QP4jngmC7nCTesXD31DsChJG9KqwGNMnvTfI72QnN7c/edit?usp=sharing ralucutzagy was the only one to guess Scherbakova for silver. Sayu93 was the only one to guess Trusova for bronze. Everyone picked Boikova/Kozlovskii for either silver or gold. No one picked Mishina/Galliamov to medal. We were unanimous in answering top 2 for BQ8 and we were unanimously wrong. Yuzu+Yale got almost twice as many quads as the rest of the field, but everyone except Aliev hit all their 3 axels so they were able to squeak ahead. Y+Y got 15 (16 if you count Yuzu's 4t in the 4t/e/3f - I didn't even though the toe was obviously clean because my definition of "clean" is positive GOE and it doesn't get scored separately) vs. 17 for the rest There was a tie for number of ladies 3 axels vs. quads. Since I didn't have tie as an option, I gave everyone the points considering our scores are sad enough as is. I realized that the wording for BQ7 was a bit ambiguous - I meant 2019 worlds + this year's grand prix events. I worded it "qualifying events", which I think everyone could only take to mean this year's grand prix events so I kept that but for "worlds" I took into consideration all previous worlds since I didn't specify which one. Luckily, I don't believe it affected the answer because Stepanova/Bukin have never beaten Sinitsina/Katsalapov at a worlds. We were also unanimously wrong for BQ10, with 13 answering Jin and 1 Tennell I did not count Yuzu's 3a/3a for BQ2 because I forgot about sequences and the wording of my question was "combo", though that did not affect the answer. Shockingly, Chen did not get +5 for his choreo seq., though that did not really affect the game results. Segment ranking: Ladies Pairs Dance BQ1 BQ2 BQ3 BQ4 BQ5 BQ6 BQ7 BQ8 BQ9 BQ10 Total Points Sayu93 6 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 river 2 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 2 0 21 Paskud 5 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 19 airi 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 17 Legacy and Hope 2 4 3 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 17 sallycinnamon 2 3 6 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 17 Old Cat Lady 5 1 6 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 16 LadyLou 2 1 6 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 15 Louitunes 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 15 Figure Frenzy 5 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 14 Sukigirl 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 14 ralucutzagy 3 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 13 TeaFrida 2 4 3 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 13 mercedes 0 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 9 Answer Key Ladies Podium 1. Kostornaya 2. Scherbakova 3. Trusova 4. Kihira Pairs Podium 1. Sui/Han 2. Peng/Jin 3. Mishina/Galliamov 4. Boikova/Kozlovskii Dance Podium 1. Papadakis/Cizeron 2. Chock/Bates 3. Hubbell/Donohue 4. Stepanova/Bukin BQ1: Which discipline will have the most 10's and +5 GOE elements before factoring? Dance: Papadakis/Cizeron FD - SILi4 Composition Interpretation BQ2: Will anyone attempt a jump or combo that they have not previously landed? Yes Trusova: 4f, 3a Kihira: 4s Scherbakova: 4f BQ3: In ladies, will there be more clean quads or 3 axels? Tie 3a - 4 Kostornaya:3, Kihira: 1 quads - 4 Trusova: 4f, 4lz, 4t Scherbakova: 4lz BQ4: Will anyone in singles or pairs have all Level 4's, positive GOE's, and no pops? No Kostornaya & Chen both got vl 3 on their FS stsq BQ5: In which disciplines will we have a new WORLD record? Ladies SP, Total Men FS, Total BQ6: In ice dance, will any of the medalists finish lower in the Free Dance than the overall? No BQ7: In ice dance, will any couple defeat a couple that they have not beaten either at worlds or during their GP qualifying events? Yes Stepanova/Bukin defeated Sinitsina/Katsalapov BQ8: In the men's event, will there be more clean quads + 3 axels landed by the top 2 or by 3-6? 3-6 Top 2: 12 a, 3 3a=15 Doesn't count Yuzu's 4t/e/3f because combo got neg GOE 3-6: 7 q, 10 3a=17 BQ9: Will the largest point margin be between 1st and 3rd in men or between 1st and 6th of one of the other disciplines? Men 1 to 3 59.67 BQ10: Who will have the largest point disparity from their worst GP event and their best (including GPF)? Aliev 39.84 259.88: Skate America 220.04 at GPF Overall results total: Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying GPF river 241 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 21 Legacy and Hope 230 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 17 sallycinnamon 228 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 17 airi 226 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 17 Old Cat Lady 221 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 16 LadyLou 214 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 15 Paskud 209 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 19 mercedes 190 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 9 TeaFrida 190 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 13 Louitunes 186 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 15 ralucutzagy 151 22 27 26 32 31 13 Sukigirl 105 31 33 27 14 Sayu93 102 24 26 30 22 Figure_Frenzy 91 22 26 29 14 Overall Averages: Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK GPF river 28.43 28 19 28 34 32 37 21 Legacy and Hope 27.14 31 23 31 25 31 32 17 airi 26.29 23 24 30 32 33 25 17 Sukigirl 26.25 31 33 27 14 sallycinnamon 26.00 32 22 28 23 29 31 17 Sayu93 25.50 24 26 30 22 Old Cat Lady 25.29 22 21 32 23 32 31 16 ralucutzagy 25.17 22 27 26 32 31 13 Paskud 25.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 19 LadyLou 24.29 31 20 30 25 22 27 15 Figure_Frenzy 22.75 22 26 29 14 mercedes 22.29 25 21 30 24 23 24 9 Louitunes 21.43 22 23 17 20 23 30 15 TeaFrida 20.86 18 25 22 23 21 24 13 Congrats to the medalists! Let me know if you have any suggestions for next time. Maybe we'll play again for 4cc, Europeans, and worlds. @river @Legacy and Hope @airi @Sukigirl @sallycinnamon @Sayu93 @ralucutzagy @Paskud @LadyLou @Figure_Frenzy @mercedes @Louitunes @TeaFrida

Ando and Radford. At least we knew going in that this award is a meaningless farce so it's not quite so disappointing That's an awfully small jury. 6 people doesn't seem at all representative of the community but I suppose the smaller it is, the easier it is to manipulate the results

Busy procrastinating. Made a list of all the FS TES from the grand prix singles finalists. The talk is about Trusova competing against the men but it looks like this would be a really interesting competition all the way down the line if it was a JPN open style event with the men and women competing together. Hanyu 116.59 Skate Canada Chen 102.38 Skate America Chen 102.1 IdF Hanyu 101.57 NHK Trusova 100.2 Skate Canada Trusova 95.34 Cup of Russia Jin 93.8 Cup of China Scherbakova 92.2 Skate America Kostornaya 88.38 IdF Aymoz 86.22 IdF Samarin 85.4 IdF Samarin 84.86 Cup of Russia Scherbakova 84.71 Cup of China Aliev 82.88 Cup of Russia Kostornaya 82.61 NHK Kihira 79.43 NHK Kihira 77.5 Skate Canada Zagitova 77.31 NHK Jin 77.2 Skate America Aliev 73.98 Skate America Tennell 71.88 Skate America Aymoz 70.19 IdF Zagitova 68.85 IdF Tennell 68.79 Skate Canada

That was the first time I felt really anxious about Yuzu for the final. Can't remember them doing a lot of straight up predictions, but the ones that stick out in my mind are about them mocking Aliona Savchenko for sticking it out another quad to try to get an Olympic gold in 2014, predicting Javier Fernandez for the world title in 2013, talking about how Nathan was going to flop after going to school, and "Hanyu is screwed" after seeing Nathan at JO this year. I really hope Yuzu wins GPF and worlds - mostly because it would make him so happy and partly because the internet will be insufferable if he doesn't

@Legacy and Hope @Paskud @mercedes @airi @Louitunes @ralucutzagy @Sayu93 @sallycinnamon Oops. just a reminder that there's still one more round. Sorry, the last post was just meant to be an update but you guys still have a chance to catch up if river manages to bomb https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf8P0GKYUfM2HwDehaDMHzepBdcrG3l69PcA9F5A99cVR7SxA/viewform?usp=pp_url

any clue how these options for the awards were chosen? seems like there’s no rhyme or reason. i imagine they’ll give yuzu most valuable skater and whoever gets the most votes for newcomer and whoever has the most votes that didn’t already get something for the other categories. thinking of voting for “not yuzu” for 2 of the categories. part of me wonders if they’ll just eliminate any vote that votes the same skater for every eligible category. most of me feels ridiculous for participating in a popularity contest re: origin discussion. when i first saw it, i didn’t like it but i think that was largely because i loved the first costume and it just was nothing like i expected. but as i look at it more, i think i might like it more than the first one. accentuates all his lines better and the design just feels elevated. it’s like something you’d see on a paris runway

Just out of curiosity, I changed all the GOE's for the non-jump elements in Nathan and Yuzu's programs to all 1's and all 5's. There's only a 12-13 point difference, which is less than a decently performed 4 toe. No wonder Yuzu only spends 5 mins a week on his spins.

Same here on all points. Pretty sure I'm going to cancel after this year. The only thing I wonder about is how to get the geoblocked videos to play on TV and if the ISU videos are going to look as good as the NBC ones. My current computer has a lower quality picture than my TV so I can't tell just watching on the computer.

Redoing projections. Same methodology as the men 1 Trusova SP: 2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo* FS: 4s, 4lz, 4t/3t, 2a, 4t/e/3s, 3lz/3lo PCS: 33.92 - Rostelecom SP BV: 123.18 Ave Proj Score 248.37 2 Kostornaya SP: 3a, 3lz, 3f/3t* FS: 3a2t, 3a, 2a, 3f/3t*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz* PCS: 36.17 - NHK FS BV: 107.8 Ave Proj Score 246.99 3 Kihira SP: 3a, 3f/3t, 3lo* SP PCS: 35.8 - WTT FS: 3a, 3a/2t, 3f, 3s, 3f/3t,*, 2a/2t/2lo*, 3lo* FS PCS: 71.49 BV: 102.16 Ave Proj Score 236.75 Alternate layout: SP - 3a, 3f/3t, 3lz* FS - 4s<, 3a/2t, 3f, 3a, 3f/3t*, 3lo/2t/2lo*, 3lz* BV: 109.58 Proj. Score: 242.16 I put Kihira above Scherbakova in spite of a lower projected score because Scherbakova has gotten a lot more < or ! calls. Kihira also doesn't have her layout maxed out so I did a projection with that - since it looks like all the videos of Kihira's 4s are under rotated, I calculated with 4s< with GOE -1. 4 Scherbakova SP: 2a, 3f, 3lz/3lo* FS: 4lz/3t, 4lz, 2a, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz* PCS: 33.98 - Sk Am FS BV: 114.16 Ave Proj Score 238.35 5 Zagitova SP: 3lz, 2a, 3f/3lo* SP PCS: 36.92 - 2019 Worlds FS: 3lz, 2a/3t, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3lo*, 3f/2t/2lo*, 3f* FS PCS: 71.49 BV: 99.06 Ave Proj Score 234.75 7 Tuktamysheva 229.43 8 You 226.62 9 Medvedeva 226.18 10 Tennell SP: 3lz/3t, 2a, 3f* SP PCS: 34.71 - WTT (?) FS: 3lz/3t, 2a, 3s, 2a, 3lz/3t*, 3f*, 3lo/2t* FS PCS: 71.2 BV: 93.69 Ave Proj Score: 221.19 11 Bell 218.29 12 Miyahara 214.49 Miyahara's was the most difficult because you know she's going to get multiple < but she didn't get the same < calls in both competitions.

Now that we’re heading into GPF, thought I’d redo projections. I changed methodology somewhat and used only Grand Prix events since this is the pool of judges that we’ll see for the important competitions. With the thought that there are natural variances within performances even when clean, I used given scores and then corrected mistakes. I only changed GOE’s for negative and 0 GOE’s. I tried to replace the GOE with a similar element from the same competition - the thought being that I want scores from a realistic panel rather than an “ideal” score. If there wasn’t anything comparable, I tried to replace it with a GOE that they have received before. If a skater lost levels, I used the raw GOE they were given and applied it to the element with level 4 I used the higher BV layout but tried to use GOE’s from the event and then averaged them For PCS, I used the highest PCS received in an ISU competition within the last 2 seasons for each segment. If a skater’s PCS are still on the rise, I used whatever is their highest PCS scoring segment for both their programs or 8.5, whichever is higher. Even then, it is likely low *caveats* Keep in mind, that these scores are likely going to be low. Judges seem to score higher overall when there’s a truly clean program. Judges often judge relatively even though they aren’t supposed to. So once these skaters are in the same competition, the patterns are likely change. Long story short - I likely wasted a lot of time so hopefully it’s at least interesting. THESE SCORES ARE NOT NECESSARILY WHAT I THINK A SKATER SHOULD GET, BUT WHAT I THINK THEY WILL GET. Hanyu - don’t think there’s any need to say much. I, like many, was a little disappointed by double recycling but there’s no question to me that both programs are on a higher level than last year and I’m glad to be able to see them close to their potential. SP: 4s, 3a, 4t/3t* SP PCS: 48.47 - Skate Canada FS: 4lo, 4s, 3lz, 4t, 4t/e/3f*, 3a/2t*, 3a/3t* FS PCS: 96.4 - Skate Canada BV: 139.35 Ave Proj Score 325.3 (Sk Can=326.53, NHK=324.08) 328.62 In orange, is a theoretical score with a better quality 4t/3t in the SP with a GOE of 4.2 and the rest of the GOE’s the same as Skate Canada Chen SP: 4lz, 3a, 4t/3t* (changed SkAm lz GOE to 3 in spite of positive GOE because of clear visible error) SP PCS: 46.51 - IdF FS: 4lz, 3lz/3t, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t*, 3a/2t* PCS: 94.78 - 2019 worlds BV: 140.75 Ave Proj Score 320.616 (SkAm = 321.51, IdF = 319.72) Alternate layout: SP: 4lz, 3a, 4t/3t* FS: 4lz, 4f, 4t/e/3f, 3a, 4s*, 4t/3t*, 3a/2t* Proj. Score: 328.62 Skate America GOE's, SP 4lz changed to "3" Frankly, I think both programs are garbage. Worst SP in 3 years - I actually like Nemesis and Caravan, while not my cup of tea stylistically, was at least choreographed and performed well. Rocket Man, like most rock medleys, has no interpretive depth. But judges don’t care and his PCS continues to rise. Notice that Yuzu's current layout with a better 4t/3t projects the exact same score as Nathan's 5 quad layout with the 4lz fixed to 3 (3 is higher than his average jump GOE but lower than his highest). Really, this comes down to the makeup of the panel and who can execute better - not just being clean, but who can have smoother landings, avoid snow and turnouts, project better on the performance, etc. all the details will matter. Although realistically, Nathan has the edge in a 5 vs. 4 competition because this projection isn't taking into account his PCS rise and a quad has a tendency to get a higher GOE. Shoma Uno. SP: 4f, 4f/2t, 3a* SP PCS: 46.5 - 2018 Lombardia FS: 4s, 4f, 4t/2t, 3a, 4t*, 3s/3t, 3a/e/3f* FS PCS: 92.88 - 2019 4CC BV: 135.78 Ave Proj Score 302.66 Had to do a lot of guessing because there were so many mistakes. But even with degrading of quality all around, if he can land the jumps, he’s still the 3rd best skater (I didn’t do projections for Zhou or Kolyada since they didn’t skate the GP) He says that he wants a coach that will support him emotionally rather than for technical expertise. I think that there’s a difference between needs and wants and Lambiel is a terrible choice for his coach. If all he wants is emotional support, he would have been better off with coach Fluffy, but it might not have been his decision. Lambiel currently has a talented skater that’s regressed and a bunch of skaters that are never going to be at Shoma’s level. In the short term, Lambiel is better than nothing - Shoma’s regressed in his steps and spins and Lambiel can at least get those back to their previous level but Lambiel isn’t good at teaching anything that Shoma wasn’t already good at last year. Long term, hopefully Shoma finds someone who can actually help him improve from his previous level. Alexander Samarin SP: 4lz/3t, 4f, 3a* FS: 4lz/3t, 4f, 4t, 3a, 3a/2t*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo* PCS: 44.12 - 2019 Europeans FS BV: 136.63 Ave Proj Score 298.78 For whatever reason, this is the one Russia is giving the push. Other than the 4lz, his GOE’s are pretty low for a top skater. While immensely talented, he seems just as inconsistent as Kolyada, Kolyada has a higher scoring potential, and Kolyada places highest of Russian men at worlds. But I guess the Russian fed is sick of waiting for Kolyada to fulfill his potential and figured they’d start from scratch with a new one and hope for better. Boyang Jin SP: 4lz, 4t/3t, 3a* SP PCS: 42.32 - 2019 4cc FS: 4lz, 4t/2t, 4t, 3a/e/3s, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3f* FS PCS: 84.3 - 2019 4cc BV: 134.54 Ave Proj Score 290.62 Currently only does 3 quads in his FS. Has lower PCS and GOE’s than Chen in spite of bigger jumps, comparable and sometimes better spins and footwork. But he’s also much less consistent which can contribute to this. I’m going to be optimistic and say that these will rise if he can string together cleaner competitions. Part of me thinks he should be higher than Samarin because of a bigger jump arsenal and being able to perform better on the big occasions. Dmitry Aliev SP: 4lz/3t, 4t, 3a* SP PCS: 43.3 - 2019 Lombardia FS: 4lz, 4t, 4t/3t, 3f, 3a*, 3lz/3t*, 3lo/e/3s* FS PCS: 86.36 - 2019 Cup of Russia BV: 134.78 Ave Proj Score: 288.63 Has plateaued. Was my favorite Russian man. I love the fluidity of his movement but his programs are rather mediocre this year. His LP especially is ill suited to his skating. Aymoz SP: 4t, 3lz/3t, 3a SP PCS: 44.65 - 2019 AC FS: 4t, 4t/2t, 3a, 3lo, 3a/3t*, 3f*, 3lz/e/3s* FS PCS: 89.8 - 2019 AC BV: 122.82 Ave Proj Score: 285.23 Programs jam packed with transitions of varying levels of success. Jumps are frequently sloppy, which detracts from the presentation. Higher scoring potential than Brown because of the quad but Brown does everything else better. I personally don’t like either of their LP’s. But he seems to be the one on the rise. Jason Brown - 272.56. Didn’t go into as much detail because I don’t consider him a real medal contender right now. It’s unlikely that enough skaters will implode on the world stage for him to slip onto the podium and he’s prone to implode himself. His LP is terrible. Yes, it looks good because his skating is beautiful but the program itself is not interesting.

I noticed gala videos being copyright stricken on Youtube by NBC. As far as I know, NBC doesn't broadcast any gala programs. Am I wrong? I don't see anything about gala here and it's not on my NBC Gold. https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2019/10/02/figure-skating-season-broadcast-schedule/

Well I didn't do any better. I called him Andrei. I thought about giving you the points since I was 90% sure I knew what you meant but wasn't sure if that would be fair to everyone else. I'm going for a couple upsets for GPF predictions. I'm in the middle of the pack so the only way for me to have a shot at catching River is for something unexpected to happen.

Oh dear. Brain fart. Corrected my post. Thx In that case, if Igor is a diminutive of Ivan, let me know. AFAIK, they're separate first names.

This is the current standings for the overall. Since not everyone participated in every event, I did both a total and an average based on event results (omitted qualifying scores since high score potential skews averages too much) Total Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Qualifying river 220 28 19 28 34 32 37 42 Legacy and Hope 213 31 23 31 25 31 32 40 sallycinnamon 211 32 22 28 23 29 31 46 airi 209 23 24 30 32 33 25 42 Old Cat Lady 205 22 21 32 23 32 31 44 LadyLou 199 31 20 30 25 22 27 44 Paskud 190 23 23 23 29 33 25 34 mercedes 181 25 21 30 24 23 24 34 TeaFrida 177 18 25 22 23 21 24 44 Louitunes 171 22 23 17 20 23 30 36 ralucutzagy 138 22 27 26 32 31 Sukigirl 91 31 33 27 Sayu93 80 24 26 30 Figure_Frenzy 77 22 26 29 Ave Skate America Skate Canada IdF Cup of China Rostelecom NHK Sukigirl 30.33 31 33 27 river 29.67 28 19 28 34 32 37 Legacy and Hope 28.83 31 23 31 25 31 32 airi 27.83 23 24 30 32 33 25 ralucutzagy 27.60 22 27 26 32 31 sallycinnamon 27.50 32 22 28 23 29 31 Old Cat Lady 26.83 22 21 32 23 32 31 Sayu93 26.67 24 26 30 Paskud 26.00 23 23 23 29 33 25 LadyLou 25.83 31 20 30 25 22 27 Figure_Frenzy 25.67 22 26 29 mercedes 24.50 25 21 30 24 23 24 Louitunes 22.50 22 23 17 20 23 30 TeaFrida 22.17 18 25 22 23 21 24