Which GP(s) do you think Yuzu will choose?

[Sombreuil]

3 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

But this year, Nathan's pick gets priority.  Everyone seems to agree that Nathan will pick whatever works best with school.  The first question is, what would Nathan consider best for his schedule?  NHK is the only event other than SA that would allow him to miss fewer classes but it's also the one that will least likely want him.  If Nathan does ask for NHK, how much is JSF willing to play ball?  

 

If NHK isn't an option, then you would think Nathan would pick whatever event would cause him to miss the fewest classes.  That's Skate Canada.  Then we have to ask, is Skate Canada willing to fight to get Yuzu? Isn't Nathan one of the most popular male skaters in Canada.  If Shoma also picks Skate Canada, would they consider that enough of a draw for the event?  

I don’t know - is  Nathan popular in Canada?  I’ve no idea.  I do have an idea that ISU looks at the bottom line, which if they consider the WC a draw won’t want to confine that pulling power to NA - they might want to deploy him to Europe or Asia after America.  Athletes pick even for WC is probably limited.

[Moria Polonius]

If Nathan chose NHK, JSF would probably invoke their host pick right. Unless Yuzu would actually rather go somewhere else. In that case  JSF would put Shoma there - would Nathan want to go against a dangerous rival on the rival's home ground?

[Old Cat Lady]

19 minutes ago, Sombreuil said:

I don’t know - is  Nathan popular in Canada?  I’ve no idea.  I do have an idea that ISU looks at the bottom line, which if they consider the WC a draw won’t want to confine that pulling power to NA - they might want to deploy him to Europe or Asia after America.  Athletes pick even for WC is probably limited.

 

From the ISU perspective:

France has Papadakis/Cizeron and James/Cipres

US has Nathan

China has Sui/Han and Boyang but not sure how popular they are

Japan has a lot of choices

Russia has a lot of choices

Canada has no strong local draws.

 

Yuzu is easily the biggest draw internationally and is going to increase sales in every event except NHK, which will likely sell out anyway.  I'm guessing even Skate America would benefit more from him than Nathan.  eta: Skating is popular in Russia. Rostelecom could probably sell out without him as well.

I don't know if Nathan is popular, per se, but he is a 2 time world champion now and the most hyped skater in North America. Skate America and Skate Canada are the only events that Nathan can be a somewhat decent substitute for Yuzu, especially if Shoma is sent as well.  I don't think Nathan has enough drawing power to impact any other event.

[Sombreuil]

As I said idk how popular he is in Canada.  Nor it seems do you. Does ISU know?  Or will they spray their top rated skaters across the board and hope for a bumper income - because that’s what it’s about.

[Old Cat Lady]

1 minute ago, Sombreuil said:

As I said idk how popular he is in Canada.  Nor it seems do you. Does ISU know?  Or will they spray their top rated skaters across the board and hope for a bumper income - because that’s what it’s about.

 

The point I was trying to make is I just don't see why the ISU would want to force Nathan to skate outside North America.  There's no financial motivation to do it when every other event has a bigger local draw than Nathan and Yuzu can be placed anywhere to sell the event out.  At least judging by the forums, he's the 2nd most popular active male skater - a lot of the Chan fans have switched to supporting him.  From ISU perspective, it makes the most financial sense to keep Nathan in N.A., where it's easiest for American fans to travel to see him.

 

Without ISU stepping in, it's a question of host pick + skater wishes. Then we go back to, is Skate Canada willing to fight for Yuzu?  Most of the all event tickets have already sold for Skate Canada anyway.

[Blackberry]

1 hour ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

But this year, Nathan's pick gets priority.  Everyone seems to agree that Nathan will pick whatever works best with school.  The first question is, what would Nathan consider best for his schedule?  NHK is the only event other than SA that would allow him to miss fewer classes but it's also the one that will least likely want him.  If Nathan does ask for NHK, how much is JSF willing to play ball?  

 

If NHK isn't an option, then you would think Nathan would pick whatever event would cause him to miss the fewest classes.  That's Skate Canada.  Then we have to ask, is Skate Canada willing to fight to get Yuzu? Isn't Nathan one of the most popular male skaters in Canada.  If Shoma also picks Skate Canada, would they consider that enough of a draw for the event?  If Yuzu really doesn't want to do back to back event, he can do any of the other events.

 

Neither of these things are really true when you consider travel time, practice schedules, and Yale exams.

 

NHK Trophy starts on November 22, but with the time difference, that’s actually November 21 here. Take into account practice schedules and flight times, and Nathan would probably miss around 3 days before the start of the competition, and because those days are right before Yale has a recess, that’s typically right when professors schedule all their exams.

 

As for timing for Skate Canada: Keep in mind that Nathan is either flying out of a small airport (New Haven) or taking a train to NYC and flying out of a big airport (which adds hassle and travel time).

 

Skate Canada is in Kelowna which is exactly like New Haven in that it’s small and there just aren’t that many flights in and out. So he’s on either a 3-hop flight (and yes, I checked) OR he does a two-hop flight plus one extended leg by train or car. So looking up shortest duration flights, he’s looking at a 12 hour trip (on the outgoing journey) to a 17 hour trip (on the return) for him. 

 

So look at the overall schedule: Skate America isn’t on fall recess this year, so he missed two days of class the prior week. He finishes Skate America in Vegas on Sunday, takes a red eye back to NYC in time for Monday classes. Then he has to fly back to the West Coast for Thursday practice, which means he’s missing class on Wednesday-Friday. And October 25th is the official mid term date for Yale, and he might not be able to get back in time for Monday classes, either, depending on when the gala is scheduled.

 

I’m guessing that Nathan doesn’t want to miss 50% of his classes in the two weeks before and including midterms. As someone who did that once, I do not advise it.

 

So just because it’s in North America doesn’t mean it’s convenient.

 

Kelowna is slightly better travel time than Internationaux de France, which is 14 hours and 16 hours, and Moscow which is 19 hours and 20 hours, but I think it would really mess with this ability to study and schedule exams to have two back-to-back competitions right then.

 

That being said, the worst possible option in terms of travel is China, because Chongqing omg why.

[Old Cat Lady]

8 minutes ago, Blackberry said:

 

Neither of these things are really true when you consider travel time, practice schedules, and Yale exams.

 

NHK Trophy starts on November 22, but with the time difference, that’s actually November 21 here. Take into account practice schedules and flight times, and Nathan would probably miss around 3 days before the start of the competition, and because those days are right before Yale has a recess, that’s typically right when professors schedule all their exams.

 

As for timing for Skate Canada: Keep in mind that Nathan is either flying out of a small airport (New Haven) or taking a train to NYC and flying out of a big airport (which adds hassle and travel time).

 

Skate Canada is in Kelowna which is exactly like New Haven in that it’s small and there just aren’t that many flights in and out. So he’s on either a 3-hop flight (and yes, I checked—the only connections between New Haven and , OR he does a two-hop flight plus one extended leg by train or car. So looking up shortest duration flights, he’s looking at a 12 hour trip (on the outgoing journey) to a 17 hour trip (on the return) for him. 

 

So look at the overall schedule: Skate America isn’t on fall recess this year, so he missed two days of class the prior week. He finishes Skate America in Vegas on Sunday, takes a red eye back to NYC in time for Monday classes. Then he has to fly back to the West Coast for Thursday practice, which means he’s missing class on Wednesday-Friday. And October 25th is the official mid term date for Yale, and he might not be able to get back in time for Monday classes, either, depending on when the gala is scheduled.

 

I’m guessing that Nathan doesn’t want to miss 50% of his classes in the two weeks before and including midterms. As someone who did that once, I do not advise it.

 

So just because it’s in North America doesn’t mean it’s convenient.

 

Kelowna is slightly better travel time than Internationaux de France, which is 14 hours and 16 hours, and Moscow which is 19 hours and 20 hours, but I think it would really mess with this ability to study and schedule exams to have two back-to-back competitions right then.

 

That being said, the worst possible option in terms of travel is China, because Chongqing omg why.

 

Lol, wow, you really did your research.  I wonder if Nathan knows all this yet.  Quick, we need to nudge Nathan toward Rostelecom so us N.A. have a better shot at Yuzu!

[Blackberry]

1 minute ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

Lol, wow, you really did your research.  I wonder if Nathan knows all this yet.  Quick, we need to nudge Nathan toward Rostelecom so us N.A. have a better shot at Yuzu!

 

I do lots of research on the theory that somehow knowing exactly what is possible will make me more likely to get what I want.

 

It never works that way and yet still I keep doing it? Huh.

[Dreamer]

Blackberry... R u an engineer or an accountant? 🤓

[Blackberry]

No, I’m a multi-purpose dork. 

[rockstaryuzu]

3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

Isn't Nathan one of the most popular male skaters in Canada

I couldn't tell you, but I would say no. We're still in love with Virtue and Moir up here...the others might as well not exist.  It's like 'TessaandScottTessanadScottTessaandScottElvisKurtTessaScott oh right and that Chan guy...." if you ask the average skating fan. I personally know more people who stan Reynolds than Chan. 

 

And Yuzu not wanting to get stuck doing back-to-back comps is why I say IdF is the other likely possibility for him besides Skate Canada. The flight from Toronto is probably about the same length either way. 

[rockstaryuzu]

2 hours ago, Blackberry said:

That being said, the worst possible option in terms of travel is China, because Chongqing omg why.

Because it'll be packed with Chinese fans. Especially if Yuzu goes. He is immensely popular over there. 

[Dreamer]

Yuzu is 'popular' everywhere... I can hardly fathom that I am about to spend the equivalent of a reference tonearm to attend WC 2020(ticket flight hotel and expenses). 

 

 

 

 

[shanshani]

9 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

Lol, wow, you really did your research.  I wonder if Nathan knows all this yet.  Quick, we need to nudge Nathan toward Rostelecom so us N.A. have a better shot at Yuzu!

Noooo NA fans have Worlds, for fans in Asia if Yuzu doesn't go to CoC or 4CC then there's only NHK and Jnats, both of which are nearly impossible for non-Japanese fans to get tickets to T_T

 

^{screw superstition, please come to CoC Yuzu. it would improve China-Japan relations. do it for world peace}

 

I guess I don't hate the prospect of IdF for various personal reason though, plus the tickets might be less of a bloodbath.

 

Thinking it over, you guys seem to have covered all the speculative bases. The core questions seems to be

1. Which stops fit Nathan's schedule the best

2. Yuzu or Shoma at NHK (probably not both--they didn't meet last year either even though they could have)

3. Relative importance of skaters' choice vs fed preference vs ISU moneymaking

 

The only stop that's almost certainly a lock is Nate at SkAm. I think one factor you guys didn't discuss re: which other stop Nathan will pick is that there's far less jetlag involved in going to SCI than to other places, even if the travel times aren't that different. I don't know how good or bad at dealing with jetlag Nathan is, but I think it's at least as much of a factor as a couple extra hours of travel time. Therefore I think the odds of Nate at SCI are better than average, even if Kelowna isn't particularly easy for him to get to. I'm also on the skeptical side about Nathan picking NHK because of US Thanksgiving--it eats into exam time, JSF almost certainly doesn't want him, it's a pretty long journey, he'll have to face Shoma on hostile territory, and he might not want to compete so close to GPF either. So I think I'm leaning SkAm+SCI as most likely for him--in fact, since they are back to back, he could just go Las Vegas -> Kelowna and not deal with traveling back and forth from Yale. Yes, he misses more class and has to compete two weekends in a row, but on the other hand literally everything else is easier plus Nate has pretty solid stamina and I'm sure he could arrange accommodations at school.

 

So that leaves the next question, Yuzu or Shoma at NHK? I think Yuzu is more likely. Because of World's placements, he gets to pick before Shoma whatever JSF's preferences are regarding the national champion, and I really doubt JSF is going to outright refuse Yuzu in order to have Shoma. There's also a non-zero chance that JSF decides to have both Yuzu and Shoma. Therefore I think that as long as Yuzu wants NHK he gets NHK, and I'm not convinced that Yuzu hates competing near GPF enough to outweigh his love of Japan/sense of responsibility to Japanese fans/feelings of guilt for missing so many competitions in Japan or whatever not to go.

 

So for Yuzu's second spot, he would have to go with one out of Rostelecom/CoC/IdF, none of which he loves, I imagine, but probably not Rostelecom since it's so close to NHK which is close to GPF. So that leaves CoC and IdF (aka superstition versus ugly plastic stars). Not really sure which one he'd choose between those two. IdF is earlier so it gives him more time to adjust any problems with his programs, but there's less travel and jetlag involved if he doesn't go back to Canada between CoC and NHK...buuuut I'm not sure where he'd train/if he would even want to avoid going back to Canada between his two stops. Plus if he's relatively indifferent between the two, he might just let Vincent choose (not sure how this works behind the scenes), and I could think of reasons Vincent would pick CoC (namely he's fairly popular in China). Not sure what Vincent's schedule looks like though--is he starting college this year too?

 

So I guess I think NHK+IdF is the most likely pick for Yuzu, but I could see NHK+CoC. That leaves Rostelecom+whichever Yuzu doesn't pick for Vincent.

 

Therefore, my prediction:

SkAm: Nathan

SCI: Nathan
IdF: Yuzu
CoC: Vincent

Rostelecom: Vincent

NHK: Yuzu

 

A lot of ifs though.

[airi]

It would be interesting if Nate wouldn't want SA, though I mean, unlikely, but if for various reasons he choose something else... and it's GP, nothing is completely impossible.