Proposed changes for next season

[hoodie axel]

 

Netherlands is trying hard to make sure their own proposal doesn't pass.

 

[Xen]

There are some things I can see being good in the proposals, but the rule about a variety of quads (no repeat quads rule) just doesn't sit well.

 

So I went and played with numbers, for 3 hypothetical skaters, A, B, and C. I'm using the men's FS here, since the no repeat quads rule doesn't impact anyone else that much right now. For now, A is a guy with 4 quads (4Lz, 4F, 4S, 4T stable, hi Nate!), Skater B is a guy with no quads but a good 3A, and skater C is a guy with 4S and 4T but no other quads (hello Javi!). The calculations below assumes 1) no falls; 2) +5 full GOEs (tied to % of BV and factorized); 3) 10% bv reduction on all quads, no reduction on 3A (I can argue why later); 4) that assuming everyone only backloads 4 jumping passes in the bonus half (I've yet to see guys do differently and stamina wise any more with quads is crazy).

For the +5 GOE bit: I've tied each +1 GOE to 10% of BV, and factorization means that same as right now, all triples other than 3A gets x0.7 of the GOE.

For below calculations, I only factored in jumps, since spins etc aren't really won't effect BV that much (it's pretty fixed)
Layouts:
A: 4Lz 4F 3Lz//3A3T 4S3T 4T1Lo3S 3Lo  BV: 79.16 +5GOEs: 117
B:  3Lz 3S 3Lo//3A2T 3A1Lo2S 3Lz3T 3F  BV 54.22 +5GOEs: 76.43
C:  3F 3Lo 3A // 4TLo3S 4S3T 3A3T 3Lz  BV 70.64 +5GOEs: 103.28
 
Difference in BV between A and B: 24.94; A and C: 8.52; C and B: 16.42
Difference after GOEs between A and B: 40.57; A and C: 13.72; C and B: 26.85

 

The difference, without mistakes between having 4 quads (4Lz and 4F especially) is over the BV of 2 3As. Even having just a 4T and 3S would give an advantage of 1 3A. After you factor in GOEs, it gets bigger. So conclusion-having no quads would hurt you a LOT, in fact even having just a 4S and 4T is not enough (the BV diff is the value of a 3A).

Can PCs help? Actually, again NO. Assuming that the PCS factorization goes to 2.4 for the free. Let's say Skater A gets an avg of 8.5 PCs, B an avg PCs of 9.5 and skater C an avg PCs of 9.
A: PCS=102. TSS= 219
B: PCS=114, TSS=190.43
C: PCS=108, TSS=211.28
A-C: 7.72
A-B= 28.57
C-B: 20.85
By the way, for C to surpass A with just 2 quads, assuming all the above applies, skater C would need an avg PCs of 9.75.

Realistically...poor B, poor triples and poor skater C. So far, at least in men's, I don't recall seeing many perfect GOEs being given out for triples (other than 3As). Second, the guys I've based on skater A off of, usually are rewarded higher PCs, so the actual difference is greater. And skater B to a degree does not exist (the closest is Jason Brown, but he barely gets PCS in LP higher than 90). So if anything, not being able to repeat quads, but still triples, doesn't really curb the BV difference between the have-quads and have-no-quads. And actually exacerbates the differece between the have 4T-4S and have-many-quads guys.

I also then added a hypothetical skater D, who has a 4Lz and a 4F (not in combo) but no other quads:
Layout: 4Lz 4F 3Lz//3ALo3S 3A3T 3Lz3T 3Lo
BV: 74.52
with GOE+5: 108.34
PCS avg of 9.25: 111
TSS: 219.34

 

See-in short, if you only have time for 2 quads, just get the 4Lz and 4F, at least you have a fighting chance if you get your PCS avg up to 9.25. So unless ISU is really looking for a proliferation of 4Lz and 4F being standard fare (and guys splatting and injuring themselves left and right), limiting the ability of guys to min/max with the quads they are capable of doing (rather than pushing for more variety of quads) is going to make it harder for smaller fed and lower technical skaters to do well. And even if a guy has quads, it matters more what quads he has-as illustrated above, get the 4Lz and 4F or go home. If a skater is injured and can still do quads, just of the lower BV type, he won't win unless he gets some amazing +10 PCS scores across the board (above example skater C has to avg 9.75 to beat A).

 

So of all the potential rules, this is probably one I'm least in favor of-it makes the difference between the 4Lz haves and 4Lz have-nots even greater than now.

[Neenah]

Thank @Xen that was very informative. I will add to it that this will probably result in more cheated 4Lz and 4F since the men will rush to get it and we (and they) know that they won't be penalized for bad technique. Also, as you said in your post, if the skater had an injury like Boyang's (or Yuzu) last season, which forced him to drop the 4Lz, then they'll have no choice but to go for it even if it makes the injury worse or lose any chance at winning. This actually worries me the most since we know that the skaters will jump on injured ankles if they felt they had a chance of a medal 

[Xen]

1 minute ago, Neenah said:

Thank @Xen that was very informative. I will add to it that this will probably result in more cheated 4Lz and 4F since the men will rush to get it and we (and they) know that they won't be penalized for bad technique. Also, as you said in your post, if the skater had an injury like Boyang's (or Yuzu) last season, which forced him to drop the 4Lz, then they'll have no choice but to go for it even if it makes the injury worse or lose any chance at winning. This actually worries me the most since we know that the skaters will jump on injured ankles if they felt they had a chance of a medal 

Well it's not just injury per se- it's that the course of training for quads would be changed.

Right now if I were a junior male skater, I would go for 4T and 4S first and stablize them first. They're useful for junior circuit.

But realistically, most of the senior men in the top 10 are closer to skater C, so in order to beat skater C, I'd have to go for harder quads. That changes my training significantly. So instead, perhaps I would focus more on stablizing 4Lz and 4F first, or 4Lz/4F and 4Lo first, then stablize a 4T or 4S for second half but the harder quads would take priority.  Which could lead to injury among juniors. >_<

[Lilona]

Press relise ISU: https://www.isu.org/press-releases/2018-8/17114-isu-congress-2018-seville-esp-preview/file

Wow Axel is the second quad jump in sequence? Only 1 type of jump per FP? ISU, why you r doing dis to me?

[Xen]

13 minutes ago, Lilona said:

Press relise ISU: https://www.isu.org/press-releases/2018-8/17114-isu-congress-2018-seville-esp-preview/file

Wow Axel is the second quad jump in sequence? Only 1 type of jump per FP? ISU, why you r doing dis to me?

3A-4A jump squence?

[Sammie]

If anyone is interested...

[Xen]

1 minute ago, Sammie said:

If anyone is interested...

Oh increase my blood pressure during a work week, decrease my anger tolerance too? Why the heck not!

[Winnie_20]

11 hours ago, hoodie axel said:

 

Netherlands is trying hard to make sure their own proposal doesn't pass.

 

*chuckles*

Or someone is trying hard to become a famous name in the FS world....

[hoodie axel]

I might just be watching my faves next season. ^_^ 

[Xen]

I'm going to get a nice soft cushion for my head, because depending on what rules pass, the amount of head-desking next season may increase significantly.  And I don't want a concussion from excessive headdesking at 3 am.

1 minute ago, hoodie axel said:

I might just be watching my faves next season. ^_^ 

 

[WinForPooh]

*sigh*

 

Well, we'll see, I suppose. I hope Yuzu won't rush the Lz again because of this.  That rule, if passed, would only apply to quads so his two 3As with new GOE would still be like quads. On the bright side, we would be guaranteed to see two 3As every free skate!  

 

If the -5 is actually applied, only the really good quads would be a true advantage over the 3A.

[Arwen]

Jumps – In order to have more varied Programs and to give credit to Skaters that can perform different quad jumps, any quad jump can be performed only once in a Free Skating Program

I don't like it. Like, at all.

And ISU making restrictions to Free Program content - it sounds absurd even from philological point of view.

Oh, well.

[Xen]

Just now, WinForPooh said:

*sigh*

 

Well, we'll see, I suppose. I hope Yuzu won't rush the Lz again because of this.  That rule, if passed, would only apply to quads so his two 3As with new GOE would still be like quads. On the bright side, we would be guaranteed to see two 3As every free skate!  

 

If the -5 is actually applied, only the really good quads would be a true advantage over the 3A.

I also heard elsewhere that factorization may no longer apply on triples? If so, I hope that's true.

See, without factoriziation:

3Lz backloaded, BV: 6.6

4Lz frontloaded, BV: 13.6

3Lz at +3 GOE: 9.6

If the 4Lz falls with -5 GOE (not factorizing up to -6 even): 8.6

 

I think a lot of guys can probably get a +2 or +3 GOE on their 3Lz, so in some way, a backloaded 3Lz would be better than a failed 4Lz.

[WinForPooh]

I don't see how this and the potential for -5 for bad landings/falls actually helps anybody. Sure Nathan has landed five kinds but his 4S and 4Lo are weak, he doesn't repeat the flip and lutz only for points. Yuzu has landed four, but his 4Lz is still new, all things considered. Shoma has landed four, but his 4Lo is all over the place and his 4S is dicey. Boyang probably can land the loop too but it's not a sure thing. I dunno.