Yuzuru's chances at the Olympics: second OGM

[Aotoshiro]

18 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

Pro arguments:

• He's stubborn (@theonecurriedplush) and ambitious

• He’s Yuzuru Hanyu (@ruruzest)

 

18 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

Con arguments:

• Is very stubborn

Instead to adding to constructive discussion, can I just say that this ^^^up here is basically the perfect description of Yuzuru and his OGM situation?I don't know, I'm just  every time I see this.

[theonecurriedplush]

3 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

I updated the Pro and Con posts. I mentioned everyone for credit, as I think that's cleaner than quoting, but for longer posts, I kind of summer it up to the most important lines and linked to the rest of the posts, because it's a shame not to read the whole thing.

 

Really great arguments all around!

 

 

This has always been one of my fears, because the more you tell yourself not to think of something the more you actually think of it. So you can end up overthinking about overthinking. I really, really hope Yuzu has been working on the mental aspect during his off-ice time.

 

That said, I was surprised by how, in some ways, he seems much more zen this season. Like, I wouldn't have imagined he'd be genuinely satisfied and happy with Rostelecom, but he was able to recognize that landing the Lutz was great enough. He seems somehow more... mellow. And mature. While still strong and ambitious. And, of course, it's really hard to judge, since our information is beyond limited, but for some reason, I have the feeling he's actually in a pretty good place mentally, especially compared to how he could have been.

taking a quick break here, just to thank you, because it's ending up to be a lot of work!

I'm hoping everyone's feelings can be eased a little, but, I like to think, since this is the season that turned out this way, the focus on physical therapy, recovery, ALL OF THAT, instead of the succession of, and crescendo of, competitions, may have been a period of focusing on the day to day. (you see, this is a known meditation practice) This could well have been a time that gives him a wanted groundedness! There's something in life, where when you feel your options have suddenly become more limited, that you zero in and get something better! it's an edge! This isn't for the list, but I just feel, now, a month away, it's time for his fans to give him more...um...surge, crescendo, not the time now to draw back and be worried. And I get this from what I understand of what he's like, what he apparently needs. I'm feeling good about how he is and his determination now! TRUST HIM!

[GreatLakesGal]

19 hours ago, Moria Polonius said:

I think Yuzuru's focus will be similar to that of Helsinki FS - he will be catching up but not just for a disappointing SP but for the entire season he's missed. I believe he will be in the zone.

 

I'm thinking that he will go into the Olympics absolutely pissed that all his plans were derailed by injury. And I'm hoping that anger will override his nerves and cause him to deliver some great performances--just like he did with that Helsinki FS. 

 

This is all assuming, of course, that his injuries have healed and that he has had sufficient time to train.

[Lunna]

Pro:

He's Yuzu, he can do it.

With 5 quads - there still will be 4 left if he'll pop one, so more chances to still have high BV even if not completely clean in FS and he doesn't have to yolo anything (=think too much and loose concentration)

 

Con:

His mistakes can be very costly in terms of points. While Nathan and Shoma can land not a very good jumps, even UR ones, Yuzu tends to pop if a take off/timing went wrong. Also all his combos are in the second half so he almost doesn't have a room to catch up if smth. goes wrong there.

[EisElle]

(Some have been already listed) 

CON:

No competitions prior to Oly to test his mentality in competition environment 

Possibly psychological issues on jumps (popping in fear of injury) 

Possibly new layout and being forced to water-down, which he hates

Also, imo deep down we're all expecting a miracle and those expectations might be bad pressure for Yuzuru. He doesn't owe us a miracle...

....But PRO:

Yuzuru likes challenges, he always pressures himself and he might get strenght from fans believing in miracles. Also, this time he might be more focused on fighting his way out from all his recent setbacks rather than on being perfect, so more a la gpf 2014 and Aci 2017 sp and less a la WTT SP or Boston FS ... where he was haunted by his WRs maybe even more than by his injury 

He has two programs he's comfortable with and he knows very well. He knows he can do well with those programs even when his body isn't in top condition/he missed training

Judges might be flabbergasted if he does his come back in style and  they might give him all the goe and pcs with a big "thank you for being back". (We can dream, right?)

His competitors looked much better earlier in the season and then they all kinda deflated.

Tho CON:

Nathan is "undefeated" and has his BV and fed behind him. Shoma is going back to a layout he can hit more consistently and he might win 4CC with a bang. Javi might do the same at Euros  (or Mika, and if that happens, Russia could legit have a contender, too, despite the lower bv than Shoma and Nathan)

 

Uhm, I feel bad for listing more CONs than PROs (but many Pros were already listed ) 

I agree with @KatjaThera re: Yuzu's attitude after COR. And Brian and Kikuchi looked really happy after his fs, which makes me think till then it was still according to the plan (the following events...not so much) 

All in all (and assuming Yuzu isn't hit by other ailments and injuries)   imo Yuzu's chances aren't tragically worse than how they would have been if he had competed all season and, for example, he had  been beaten "decisively" in the gpf or Nats. Now the real question mark is his physical condition, how much stamina he has, which layout it will allow him to execute, and imo even more important if he's got more prone to popping jumps, which is tbh what I fear the most. His experience and that of his team is his biggest asset rn. His mind can be both a PRO and CON, but in this instance I'd lean more on the good side. 

go Yuzu!

 

[KatjaThera]

17 hours ago, theonecurriedplush said:

taking a quick break here, just to thank you, because it's ending up to be a lot of work!

I'm hoping everyone's feelings can be eased a little, but, I like to think, since this is the season that turned out this way, the focus on physical therapy, recovery, ALL OF THAT, instead of the succession of, and crescendo of, competitions, may have been a period of focusing on the day to day. (you see, this is a known meditation practice) This could well have been a time that gives him a wanted groundedness! There's something in life, where when you feel your options have suddenly become more limited, that you zero in and get something better! it's an edge! This isn't for the list, but I just feel, now, a month away, it's time for his fans to give him more...um...surge, crescendo, not the time now to draw back and be worried. And I get this from what I understand of what he's like, what he apparently needs. I'm feeling good about how he is and his determination now! TRUST HIM!

It's no problem, I actually like this sort of thing lol (I should do it more for work, too, though ^_^; )

 

I did include some of what you said in the list, because I think it's a great point. I do think the injury might have provided great circumstances for growing in other ways, too. Let's be fair, Yuzu can be ready to compete - maybe not at 100% - in very short periods of time (he was ready for Worlds 2015 in about a week. It was about the same for NHK '14, and even though those weren't great competitions, he came back from a lot bigger problems than now). The biggest problem is the psychological aspect and I think in some ways the injury might have been a blessing in disguise if he used the time to work on that.

 

19 hours ago, Aotoshiro said:

 

Instead to adding to constructive discussion, can I just say that this ^^^up here is basically the perfect description of Yuzuru and his OGM situation?I don't know, I'm just  every time I see this.

I think that's the best kind of argument, too lol And it's true. He's Yuzuru Hanyu, so anything is possible. XD

 

14 hours ago, GreatLakesGal said:

 

I'm thinking that he will go into the Olympics absolutely pissed that all his plans were derailed by injury. And I'm hoping that anger will override his nerves and cause him to deliver some great performances--just like he did with that Helsinki FS. 

 

This is all assuming, of course, that his injuries have healed and that he has had sufficient time to train.

Generally, I'd agree, anger is a great fuel for him. However, I haven't gotten the feeling he's angry at this point. Admittedly, we haven't really seen him, but he seems somewhere above anger this season... I'm not 100% sure that's good or bad lol

 

13 hours ago, Lunna said:

Pro:

He's Yuzu, he can do it.

With 5 quads - there still will be 4 left if he'll pop one, so more chances to still have high BV even if not completely clean in FS and he doesn't have to yolo anything (=think too much and loose concentration)

 

Con:

His mistakes can be very costly in terms of points. While Nathan and Shoma can land not a very good jumps, even UR ones, Yuzu tends to pop if a take off/timing went wrong. Also all his combos are in the second half so he almost doesn't have a room to catch up if smth. goes wrong there.

I don't think having the yolo is that big an issue for him (unlike others), although it is obviously not ideal, especially for Seimei, where he doesn't have much room to improvise.

 

As for popping, I don't think it's a bad thing... I think it might actually be part of not risking his limbs pointlessly. I think especially post Boston, he's been choosing not to take pointless risks with his health and popping might be part of it. (We know he does have what it takes to force rotations even when he knows he can't land, from CoC'14.) If only he had done the same at NHK with that one lutz, instead of forcing the landing, all the consequent drama might not have happened. I tend to doubt he'll pop at the Olympics. Not unless he feels really off or realizes it too late. I think he'll force as many rotations as possible, even if it means falling. If he thinks it's worth it.

 

13 hours ago, LadyLou said:

Possibly new layout and being forced to water-down, which he hates

Also, imo deep down we're all expecting a miracle and those expectations might be bad pressure for Yuzuru. He doesn't owe us a miracle...

 

Being forced to water-down is my biggest concern, too. I personally tend to think the reason why he wasn't all that happy about the SP WR at ACI is because it was a watered down version (he probably might have also felt it'd make Brian and co more determined to get him to drop the Loop, let alone try the Lutz.) Of course there was also the challenge of watered down Seimei the next day, but I do think winning with a watered down program would make him very kuyashii, too, possibly as much as an imperfect program.

 

As for miracle, I don't think him winning would be a miracle. It's be a great achievement from any number of points, but, to me, he is the best, so the only reason I'd find if he didn't win, would be that things just didn't fall into place when it mattered. But I agree he doesn't owe us anything. And I think he knows that. I think he wants the OGM for himself first and foremost. And if other people are happy if he gets it, great. If not, too bad. Like he said in the documentary, he has the highest expectations of himself, higher than anyone else. I'm happy he understands that, because, to me, it means he won't feel as much pressure from the outside. (If he were to win with Nessie or some other insane thing, then I'd revise my opinion on miracle, though LOL)

[Murieleirum]

41 minutes ago, KatjaThera said:

Being forced to water-down is my biggest concern, too.

 

With the latest news, I somehow believe he is not watering down one little bit. Not one little bit. 

Which, of course, makes it all the more exciting and puts him in a more favourable position, for the BV and for himself. He doesn't deal well with watered-down programs, he deals damn well with glorious comebacks. 

[KatjaThera]

4 minutes ago, Murieleirum said:

 

With the latest news, I somehow believe he is not watering down one little bit. Not one little bit. 

Which, of course, makes it all the more exciting and puts him in a more favourable position, for the BV and for himself. He doesn't deal well with watered-down programs, he deals damn well with glorious comebacks. 

You know, now that you've put it in words, I feel very strongly that you are right. And I'm getting excited as opposed to nervous again lol

 

(And I just realized that I've picked up using 'you know' at the beginning of sentences more... I blame it on Yuzu. Everytime I type that, I hear him saying "You know..." at COR KnC in my head...)

[Lunna]

53 минуты назад, KatjaThera сказал:

As for popping, I don't think it's a bad thing... I think it might actually be part of not risking his limbs pointlessly. I think especially post Boston, he's been choosing not to take pointless risks with his health and popping might be part of it. (We know he does have what it takes to force rotations even when he knows he can't land, from CoC'14.) If only he had done the same at NHK with that one lutz, instead of forcing the landing, all the consequent drama might not have happened. I tend to doubt he'll pop at the Olympics. Not unless he feels really off or realizes it too late. I think he'll force as many rotations as possible, even if it means falling. If he thinks it's worth it.

I agree that generally popping is not a bad thing, especially in practices and even GP events, but he can leave a lot of points on the table with this when it counts.

[KatjaThera]

5 hours ago, Lunna said:

I agree that generally popping is not a bad thing, especially in practices and even GP events, but he can leave a lot of points on the table with this when it counts.

On that point, yes, you are perfectly right. I hope I'm right, too, and he won't be likely to pop when it matters, but if he does, then yes, it's very costly.

[EisElle]

wow, @KatjaThera's magic made my Pros became more than the cons in the list (tho I'm the one who added more cons, still feeling bad about that)

I've said this already, for a "half-empty glass" kind of person, right now I feel oddly calm and positive about Yuzu (tho biting my nails everytime I read something like "pneumonia" and "name of a TCC skater" in the same sentence...)

 

 

 

[KatjaThera]

7 minutes ago, LadyLou said:

wow, @KatjaThera's magic made my Pros became more than the cons in the list (tho I'm the one who added more cons, still feeling bad about that)

I've said this already, for a "half-empty glass" kind of person, right now I feel oddly calm and positive about Yuzu (tho biting my nails everytime I read something like "pneumonia" and "name of a TCC skater" in the same sentence...)

 

 

 

Don't feel bad, I think it's good to realistically consider negative possibilities, too.

I wouldn't say I feel calm, but I'm quite positive... Still, the Universe has to love Yuzu a bit for everything to work out right, so... *fingers crossed*

[liv]

My poor short term memory can't remember all the points people made, which are all very true, so i'll throw in these too...

 

Every year they worry about peaking and sustaining a peak.. this year, once he's healthy, he can just train hard and go for the main event...... they say he reaches peak quickly, this is one time where (again, if healthy) that will be necessary and we'll see if it's true.

 

He will feel like he's coming from behind for each program. We know he fights best when he's behind... this time, no matter if he has a 100 point lead in the short program, he's going to have to battle hard in the long program because he knows it'll be a challenge. So basically, his back will be to the wall every step of the way... which is good for him.

[KatjaThera]

I'm sorry it took so long to update. Added @liv's points to the pros list. I fully agree with both. The peaking thing I've been somewhat skeptical about before, but it did work last year, so... I now tend to trust that Brian knows what he's doing. But the coming from behind is very true.

 

And I also added another pro of my own:

Javi winning the Europeans. Aside from them being teammates, which means a good atmosphere at TCC, Yuzu was very fired up after Javi won Euros for the first time, feeling challenged by it. Sadly, it didn't pay off in 2013 due to his injury then, but I can imagine he might feel the same now. Especially since Javi didn't have a great year, either, until now.

[ruruzest]