Yuzuru's chances at the Olympics: second OGM

[Sombreuil]

Reading some of the comments elsewhere on the internet the antis are having problems with their pro and con lists - can't quite decide whether to accept that he's a threat to the new order or convince themselves that he's a has been.  

[Hydroblade]

58 minutes ago, Sombreuil said:

Reading some of the comments elsewhere on the internet the antis are having problems with their pro and con lists - can't quite decide whether to accept that he's a threat to the new order or convince themselves that he's a has been.  

it's all according to plan apparently. I am the happiest dry cactus because i know this information drought is good!

[Yatagarasu]

40 minutes ago, Sombreuil said:

Reading some of the comments elsewhere on the internet the antis are having problems with their pro and con lists - can't quite decide whether to accept that he's a threat to the new order or convince themselves that he's a has been.  

 

I spotted that as well and it cracks me up something awful. 

I have a feeling that once he shows up it'll lean more towards the has been interpretation because it comforts them more 

[Sombreuil]

It's like Schrodingers immigrant - he's Schrodingers champion who is holding the sport back by hitting all the technical and artistic bullet points.

[KatjaThera]

12 hours ago, ruruzest said:

In Javi's defense, he's been saying the same thing since 2015 lol But now I really want to add his and Plushy's comments... lol

 

As for antis, let them underestimate him and think he's past it. Will only make it sweeter for us if (when?) he proves them wrong

[theonecurriedplush]

On 1/29/2018 at 1:16 PM, Sombreuil said:

Reading some of the comments elsewhere on the internet the antis are having problems with their pro and con lists - can't quite decide whether to accept that he's a threat to the new order or convince themselves that he's a has been.  

 

So there's no updates until, like practice in PC, right? ...(I'm afraid it's been life under a rock for the most part fro me) (I don't mind what people are saying, it doesn't affect anything!)

I do wish I knew, so near now.

[Sombreuil]

Who knows when he will turn up?  I don't mind - whatever gets him there in the best possible condition in the circumstances.  OG is a pressure cooker- he's been there before so he knows what to expect and is presumably managing it as he and his team think best.

[KatjaThera]

I think at this point all we can really do is trust him and his team and wait for news as patiently as we can.

 

Meanwhile, as I mentioned in the general chat thread, here’s my take on the top 5. this is based entirely on impressions and not numbers - I know there are some people here who have done the number crunching as well and it’d be great if they brought them here, either to support or argue against my impressions - so they are just impressions and could very well be wrong.

 

I’ll only refer to Yuzu, Javi, Shoma, Nathan and Boyang, as I haven’t really followed Mikhail and it feels wrong to say anything then.

 

Now, neither of these 5 are known for being particularly consistently clean. For obvious - many quads/high difficulty - and not so obvious - Javi? - reasons. However, assuming all 5 are clean, this is how I think things are:

 

Clean Yuzu - High TES with highest GOE and probably highest PCS

Clean Shoma - High TES with high GOE and highish PCS (yes, they did score him same as Patrick once or twice, but generally he’s not that super highly scored I think?)

Clean Javi - Not so high TES but very high GOE with highest or second highest PCS (Javi is often on par with Yuzu or immediately after in PCS even when he’s not squeaky clean; Brian’s work, I suppose)

Clean Nathan - Very high TES with possibly high GOE (if they ignore bullet points just because the jumps are awesome) and medium to high PCS (with several exceptions, he’s never gotten outrageously high PCS - to rival Yuzu or Javi, but a clean program might still get him in the highs)

Clean Boyang - High TES with possibly high GOE (though possibly.lower than Nathan) and medium PCS. Boyang doesn’t have much of a PCS reputation and although he’s been working on improving, his improvement hasn’t been rewarded as much as Nathan’s or Shoma’s.

 

So I’d say if all five go clean, Yuzu should still have the upper hand, with Nathan probably second and Shoma third. But it depends on the BV difference between the last two, as well as how crazy judges go with GOE and PCS. Technically, Shoma should have higher PCS, though.

 

If they are not clean:

 

Not clean Yuzu: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), high GOE on every other element (assuming he doesn’t do a 2012 and fall on a spin or step sequence) and highest PCS (of the top 5; I think only a clean Javi would beat a not clean Yuzu in PCS, though I could be too optimistic)

Not clean Shoma: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), not so high GOE and medium (possibly to high) PCS

Not clean Javi: highish TES (because he doesn’t have as much to lose compared to others), probably high GOE on his other elements and high PCS

Not clean Nathan: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), not so high GOE on other elements and medium (to high? but the PCS candy he usually gets is for his jumps, so…) PCS

Not clean Boyang: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps) not so high GOE on other elements and medium PCS (because judges are less likely to throw candy at him)

 

Of course, this entirely depends on where the mistakes are. A fall on a quad lutz is different from one on a toeloop and a fall on a combination is different from one on a solo jump. But these are the trends in my view.

 

I think when not clean, Javi gets closer to the top 3. Yuzu should still have the upper hand and Boyang is the most disadvantaged.

 

Of course, in real life it probably won't be either of these two and some will be cleaner than others. So I'd say it's pretty impossible to predict. Technically, I think, even a not disastrously not clean Yuzu should still beat everyone else, no matter how clean they are. But again, there are degrees of cleanness, so it's really hard to say. I also think Javi is not to be underestimated. He's got lower BV, yes, but for the judges, he's top quality and he will get high scores unless he stumbles every step of the way. He's beaten Shoma and Nathan this year, even if Nathan was in a fluff event. And he wasn't clean then either, unless my memory fails me. But mistakes for Shoma and Nathan - and Yuzu, though less for him again, because he has other high quality contents - are far more costly than they are for Javi.

 

And Boyang as usualy finds himself in the ignored outsider position, as usual. But as we know, that suits him well and it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the podium. I suppose Mikhail is pretty much the same, though probably even more outsider than Boyang. It's got to be hard to have the responsibility of being Russia's main candidate for a medal, I think (since I doubt Aliev can get it; though who knows).

[Xen]

6 hours ago, KatjaThera said:

I think at this point all we can really do is trust him and his team and wait for news as patiently as we can.

 

Meanwhile, as I mentioned in the general chat thread, here’s my take on the top 5. this is based entirely on impressions and not numbers - I know there are some people here who have done the number crunching as well and it’d be great if they brought them here, either to support or argue against my impressions - so they are just impressions and could very well be wrong.

 

I’ll only refer to Yuzu, Javi, Shoma, Nathan and Boyang, as I haven’t really followed Mikhail and it feels wrong to say anything then.

 

Now, neither of these 5 are known for being particularly consistently clean. For obvious - many quads/high difficulty - and not so obvious - Javi? - reasons. However, assuming all 5 are clean, this is how I think things are:

 

Clean Yuzu - High TES with highest GOE and probably highest PCS

Clean Shoma - High TES with high GOE and highish PCS (yes, they did score him same as Patrick once or twice, but generally he’s not that super highly scored I think?)

Clean Javi - Not so high TES but very high GOE with highest or second highest PCS (Javi is often on par with Yuzu or immediately after in PCS even when he’s not squeaky clean; Brian’s work, I suppose)

Clean Nathan - Very high TES with possibly high GOE (if they ignore bullet points just because the jumps are awesome) and medium to high PCS (with several exceptions, he’s never gotten outrageously high PCS - to rival Yuzu or Javi, but a clean program might still get him in the highs)

Clean Boyang - High TES with possibly high GOE (though possibly.lower than Nathan) and medium PCS. Boyang doesn’t have much of a PCS reputation and although he’s been working on improving, his improvement hasn’t been rewarded as much as Nathan’s or Shoma’s.

 

So I’d say if all five go clean, Yuzu should still have the upper hand, with Nathan probably second and Shoma third. But it depends on the BV difference between the last two, as well as how crazy judges go with GOE and PCS. Technically, Shoma should have higher PCS, though.

 

If they are not clean:

 

Not clean Yuzu: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), high GOE on every other element (assuming he doesn’t do a 2012 and fall on a spin or step sequence) and highest PCS (of the top 5; I think only a clean Javi would beat a not clean Yuzu in PCS, though I could be too optimistic)

Not clean Shoma: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), not so high GOE and medium (possibly to high) PCS

Not clean Javi: highish TES (because he doesn’t have as much to lose compared to others), probably high GOE on his other elements and high PCS

Not clean Nathan: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps), not so high GOE on other elements and medium (to high? but the PCS candy he usually gets is for his jumps, so…) PCS

Not clean Boyang: highish TES (especially if he rotates his jumps) not so high GOE on other elements and medium PCS (because judges are less likely to throw candy at him)

 

Of course, this entirely depends on where the mistakes are. A fall on a quad lutz is different from one on a toeloop and a fall on a combination is different from one on a solo jump. But these are the trends in my view.

 

I think when not clean, Javi gets closer to the top 3. Yuzu should still have the upper hand and Boyang is the most disadvantaged.

 

Of course, in real life it probably won't be either of these two and some will be cleaner than others. So I'd say it's pretty impossible to predict. Technically, I think, even a not disastrously not clean Yuzu should still beat everyone else, no matter how clean they are. But again, there are degrees of cleanness, so it's really hard to say. I also think Javi is not to be underestimated. He's got lower BV, yes, but for the judges, he's top quality and he will get high scores unless he stumbles every step of the way. He's beaten Shoma and Nathan this year, even if Nathan was in a fluff event. And he wasn't clean then either, unless my memory fails me. But mistakes for Shoma and Nathan - and Yuzu, though less for him again, because he has other high quality contents - are far more costly than they are for Javi.

 

And Boyang as usualy finds himself in the ignored outsider position, as usual. But as we know, that suits him well and it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the podium. I suppose Mikhail is pretty much the same, though probably even more outsider than Boyang. It's got to be hard to have the responsibility of being Russia's main candidate for a medal, I think (since I doubt Aliev can get it; though who knows).

 

Mine is actually fairly similar to yours. So instead of doing a pros and cons list, I'll list my analysis of the men's. 

 

Personally, I'm thinking that the guy who wins will need to score solidly above a 315 total, 320+ ideally. To podium, above 305. 

So, for the guys:

-Yuzu: with the helsinki layout and a less than ideal SP, he managed to go over 320. I've tried calculating and if he sticks with a 5 quad layout and goes clean, it's possible for him to nab over 340 total, if he manages something like grabbing 95% of his perfect possible FS score, and go about 109 in the SP. 

-Shoma: he has potential, since Loco not so clean last season did well, and he went over 315 total. His scores this season have been generous, but his consistency doesn't seem to be as good. Plus, the issue is whether or not he will get tech calls (4cc did call him)

- Javi: maybe? I'm not sure his BV is enough, but provided he goes clean, podium is definitely possible. 

-Patrick: um, unlikely. 

-Boyang: I see 4CC scores as probably closer to what he'll get. 305-310 if he goes clean (and depends much more on others splatting). 

-Mikhail: well if he goes clean 300+ is possible, but above 310 is a stretch, depends also on others bombing

-Nathan: 320 is a stretch, 315 is possible, but other guys need to bomb enough to give him space. So far in the GP series, he's had issues in the second half, and looking at his protocols, it seems when he starts having issues, it continues for a bit longer than just a single jump. Kind of like pop-fall/sidestep-pop, or fall-pop-pop type of pattern. Yes he was fine at Nationals, but he's always been fine at Nationals, so I don't take it as an indicator. 

 

Other factors:

- The guys I think most dependent on going clean affecting their scores: Boyang and Nathan. Boyang's PCS I think were affected by him going clean. Nathan not going clean has been capped at around 88 (only slightly higher than Boyang). Anyone else going before them and being clean might deflate their PCs a bit further. 

-Tech panel calls: I also have an odd feeling, especially with the 4CC scores, that there might be a weird chance that tech panel might do its job, since the backlash hasn't been small this season. Yes, I'm aware that it's a low chance, but something in 4CC got me thinking-even if 4CC had issues too. So assuming politics kind of implodes, and tech panel does some work, and judges don't go crazy by throwing PCS for quad quantity, the guys with the most stable scores are Yuzu, Boyang, Javi (universally loved) and Patrick (it can't go lower anyways). Nate and Shoma might find the biggest score fluctations, especially if they don't go clean. 

 

 

[KatjaThera]

10 hours ago, Xen said:

 

Mine is actually fairly similar to yours. So instead of doing a pros and cons list, I'll list my analysis of the men's. 

 

Personally, I'm thinking that the guy who wins will need to score solidly above a 315 total, 320+ ideally. To podium, above 305. 

So, for the guys:

-Yuzu: with the helsinki layout and a less than ideal SP, he managed to go over 320. I've tried calculating and if he sticks with a 5 quad layout and goes clean, it's possible for him to nab over 340 total, if he manages something like grabbing 95% of his perfect possible FS score, and go about 109 in the SP. 

-Shoma: he has potential, since Loco not so clean last season did well, and he went over 315 total. His scores this season have been generous, but his consistency doesn't seem to be as good. Plus, the issue is whether or not he will get tech calls (4cc did call him)

- Javi: maybe? I'm not sure his BV is enough, but provided he goes clean, podium is definitely possible. 

-Patrick: um, unlikely. 

-Boyang: I see 4CC scores as probably closer to what he'll get. 305-310 if he goes clean (and depends much more on others splatting). 

-Mikhail: well if he goes clean 300+ is possible, but above 310 is a stretch, depends also on others bombing

-Nathan: 320 is a stretch, 315 is possible, but other guys need to bomb enough to give him space. So far in the GP series, he's had issues in the second half, and looking at his protocols, it seems when he starts having issues, it continues for a bit longer than just a single jump. Kind of like pop-fall/sidestep-pop, or fall-pop-pop type of pattern. Yes he was fine at Nationals, but he's always been fine at Nationals, so I don't take it as an indicator. 

 

Other factors:

- The guys I think most dependent on going clean affecting their scores: Boyang and Nathan. Boyang's PCS I think were affected by him going clean. Nathan not going clean has been capped at around 88 (only slightly higher than Boyang). Anyone else going before them and being clean might deflate their PCs a bit further. 

-Tech panel calls: I also have an odd feeling, especially with the 4CC scores, that there might be a weird chance that tech panel might do its job, since the backlash hasn't been small this season. Yes, I'm aware that it's a low chance, but something in 4CC got me thinking-even if 4CC had issues too. So assuming politics kind of implodes, and tech panel does some work, and judges don't go crazy by throwing PCS for quad quantity, the guys with the most stable scores are Yuzu, Boyang, Javi (universally loved) and Patrick (it can't go lower anyways). Nate and Shoma might find the biggest score fluctations, especially if they don't go clean. 

 

 

Thank you for your analysis! It's very interesting. I think it'd be great to have 300+ scores at the Olympics, as it'd show just how far the sport has gone in four years. (The scores in Sochi, aside from Yuzu's SP, were lower than other competitions before that.) I do wonder if we will get that, though. There haven't really been many scores over 300 this season and the consecutive days thing plus the difficulty levels makes splatting very possible. So while I hope you're right, I'm not as sure it'll happen... Also, aside from Shoma and Javi, have any of the others gone over 305? (including Nationals?) Getting PBs at the Olympics would be great, but I'm not sure how likely that is. 

 

As you've probably noticed, I ignored Patrick completely ^_^; Well, he himself has said he's not really a contender for singles. And if he's toned down his technical content even more, the only way he'd have a chance would be for everyone else to fail in epic ways. (And then I think guys like Adam or Dimitri might have a big chance of stepping up, too.) I also admit that while I haven't watched Patrick much, despite his PCS, he seemed to be very inconsistent in the sense of actually landing his jumps. Although, like with Javi, mistakes on a lower BV program are less costly than on a higher BV program.

 

I still can't shake off the idea that Shoma doesn't really have as much political backing now as he did after Helsinki. I'm not sure whether that means anything or whether it'll impact his scores, but combined with 4cc scoring, I can't shake it off. If so, then yes, there might be a more correct/strict scoring at the Olympics, too. (Now I kind of wish Nathan had been at 4cc, too. It might have given us an even better idea of scoring trends.) I also still wonder how he'll react under pressure. I have the image of rookie Shoma skating after Javi in Boston and looking so terrified in my head. I know he's been really cool and seemingly not phased much since then, but he's also never really been under pressure. In Boston, I'm not sure if it was because of Worlds, or because he'd done well in the SP, so he felt the pressure of doing well in the FS as well, or if it was skating after Javi, but I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone look that scared and shocked before he even started skating. I wonder if he's really moved on from whatever caused that reaction, or caused it to be so intense.

 

For Javi, the main reason why I refuse to underestimate him is Brian. If Brian believes Javi can get gold in the right circumstances even with lower BV, then I believe it, too. Of course, it depends on a lot of things, including his rivals making mistakes and himself being clean. But neither of those is impossible. But Brian knows how scoring and judging go, so... Also I think Javi's Boston score is still higher than most scores this season. However, Javi has also been quite inconsistent about landing his jumps lately, too, so it can go either way.

 

And is Boyang's scoring really stable? I admit I haven't followed his numbers and although he has 'sneaked' by the other favorites on a few occasions, my impression was more that it was due to others' mistakes than his own scoring being good. But like I said, I haven't really followed his scores. If it is, though, then it is interesting and makes him less of an outsider than I thought.

[DaPurpleDino]

As much as i hate to say it, I think the judging panel also has a role - especially if the men arent clean and its a situation where it can go either way. They seemed willing to overlook things at CoC unlike the 4CC channel

Of course if Yuzuru skates clean they won't be able to mark him down too much

[Lunna]

5 часов назад, KatjaThera сказал:

For Javi, the main reason why I refuse to underestimate him is Brian. If Brian believes Javi can get gold in the right circumstances even with lower BV, then I believe it, too. Of course, it depends on a lot of things, including his rivals making mistakes and himself being clean. But neither of those is impossible. But Brian knows how scoring and judging go, so... Also I think Javi's Boston score is still higher than most scores this season. However, Javi has also been quite inconsistent about landing his jumps lately, too, so it can go either way.

I think clean Javi (with nicely landed jumps) can beat clean Shoma, he only has one less quad but he can make up the gap on GOEs and PCS. Of course we didn't saw a clean FS from Javi in a long time, but at Euros he was already closer to it then before, so I don't want to underestimate him either.

Clean Nathan I think can only beat clean Yuzu.

And if there will be mistakes anything can happen.

[Sombreuil]

If Nathan goes clean with his maxed out quad layout/MIA choreography and beats clean Yuzuru ......... RIP figure skating 

[Xen]

2 hours ago, Lunna said:

 

Clean Nathan I think can only beat clean Yuzu.

 

You mean "A Clean Nathan can only be beaten by a clean Yuzu" right? That I find more believable. =D

Though personally, I think it's possible a clean Shoma may edge out a clean Nathan too if no tech calls are made.

@KatjaThera:

Hmm, I wouldn't say Boyang's scores are stable, but rather than Boyang tends to peak late in the season. So while I consider him very "wild" early in the season, he has been relatively stable in the large important competitions like Worlds, since 2016. His scoring potential this season is probably 305-310 range if he goes clean, if 4CC serves as basis (and that wasn't completely clean has he had - GOEs). But his scores are very beatable, by clean Nate, Shoma, Javi relatively easily. So Boyang's podium chances depend on himself going clean, and largely on other guys splatting ( only way his PCS will be higher than 85 in the long). However, he is a very "my pace" sort of person, and is looking more at long term goals, has less pressure and may actually perform-good thing considering the schedule.

 

For the actual schedule- the guys I think could handle the schedule are Boyang, Shoma, Nate and Yuzu. Despite Yuzu being a man of mystery, I would imagine he's been training to the PC competition schedule for a while. That recent photo has him looking more tired than normal, so I wonder if he's been doing morning RTs to adjust to the stamina requirement.  But Yuzu has always been more about mental space-physically I think he can usually pull reserves of stamina out of don't know where. Shoma I view in a similar way, and with his senpai back, I think he may feel calmer. Boyang I think has more stamina than people think he has. Nate is young, the stamina isn't the issue (nerves and pressure will be). But the no set layout strategy-other than just splat risk, what if he zayaks?

 

As for Patrick- you made me concerned actually, because I remembered what happened with Plushenko in Sochi. I hope that doesn't happen, since Patrick is so focused on the team event it seems.

 

Skating order-I would find one skating order highly amusing. Imagine what would happen with GOEs and PCs if we start the last flight with Javi/Patrick going clean, then the quadsters, followed by a clean Yuzu last.  PCS go high---mid---high?

 

 

[Lunna]

23 минуты назад, Xen сказал:

You mean "A Clean Nathan can only be beaten by a clean Yuzu" right? That I find more believable. =D

Surely. Can't already compose my thoughts properly by the end of the working week

23 минуты назад, Xen сказал:

Though personally, I think it's possible a clean Shoma may edge out a clean Nathan too if no tech calls are made.

Maybe but depends on Nate's BV also, will he do 2x4Fs or 2x4Lzs (seems unlikely though)