General Skating Chat

[Valkyria]

Wow, I thought the 4Lz at the end of H&L for stamina training back in TCC was a widely known thing. Oops.

 

We never got actual proof, obviously; the shockwave from seeing footage of that would've been hard to miss. But still... Yuzu will be Yuzu and I wouldn't be surprised at him attempting something like that 

 

And about keeping the 4Lz still under wraps for now, even if the others wouldn't change their plans because of it (which is debatable. I'm sure they'd at least consider training a plan B layout that would give them more options, like Nathan did with his ever growing number of quads last season :__D), not commiting publicly gives Yuzuru more freedom. If he were to come out and outright say he was going to add the 4Lz it would be forcing his own hand, since going back on his word afterwards isn't a thing I think he would be okay with doing.

[Yatagarasu]

2 hours ago, Valkyria said:

not commiting publicly gives Yuzuru more freedom. If he were to come out and outright say he was going to add the 4Lz it would be forcing his own hand, since going back on his word afterwards isn't a thing I think he would be okay with doing.

 

By now, he already knows if it is doable or not. It's simply the timing, we're already in August. I think if he plans on it, and I do believe we'll see it, it'll pop up. The layout though, now that can be kept a secret. Even if we know about the Lz, the rest would still be wide open.

[SSS]

I will die if there is no 4lz. I will die if there is 4lz. Pretty much I am sure I will die. I can die now...prefer die with 4lz 

[axelsandwich]

4Lz would definitely be a good strategic move in terms of sustaining the momentum in Yuzu's favour but I think he may be more focused on going clean the whole way through and winning everything. I wonder if he might do a Nathan/Shoma and make changes to his layout halfway through the season (especially eg. if the tide begins shifting in someone else's favour due to GP results)...but then again that doesn't seem to be Yuzu's style as he tends to commit to a layout and stick with it (and only YOLO if something goes wrong). 

[kaeryth]

1 hour ago, kaerb said:

4Lz would definitely be a good strategic move in terms of sustaining the momentum in Yuzu's favour but I think he may be more focused on going clean the whole way through and winning everything. I wonder if he might do a Nathan/Shoma and make changes to his layout halfway through the season (especially eg. if the tide begins shifting in someone else's favour due to GP results)...but then again that doesn't seem to be Yuzu's style as he tends to commit to a layout and stick with it (and only YOLO if something goes wrong). 

 

He's switched layouts midseason before... his SP from SC 2015 to NHK 2015...

[fluffypooh]

5 hours ago, kaerb said:

4Lz would definitely be a good strategic move in terms of sustaining the momentum in Yuzu's favour but I think he may be more focused on going clean the whole way through and winning everything. I wonder if he might do a Nathan/Shoma and make changes to his layout halfway through the season (especially eg. if the tide begins shifting in someone else's favour due to GP results)...but then again that doesn't seem to be Yuzu's style as he tends to commit to a layout and stick with it (and only YOLO if something goes wrong). 

I think Yuzu would already be considering the possibility of layout change mid season by the youngsters, he is always one steps ahead, and he keeps his plan flexible 

[Yatagarasu]

7 hours ago, kaerb said:

.but then again that doesn't seem to be Yuzu's style as he tends to commit to a layout and stick with it (and only YOLO if something goes wrong). 

 

It would be rare but he has done it before. As much as not committing, like @Valkyria mentioned earlier, he might not say anything either so as to keep his cards close, until he simply lets loose during ACI. But we'll have this sorted out soon. Luckily!

[axelsandwich]

WELP. At least we have news he's adding 5 quads in his program (chances of Lz gone up?) https://wherespacepooh.tumblr.com/post/163950208929/yuzuru-hanyu-2017-18-media-day-master-post

[SSS]

On 7/17/2017 at 4:15 AM, xeyra said:

Taking this away from the General thread and posting some speculative BV totals. Please note all this BV speculation doesn't take into account possible changes to SP as well. In another post, I'll do some speculative math as well. 

 

SKATER	SP BV	LAYOUT	FS BV	LAYOUT*	TOTAL BV
CHEN	53.15	4Lz3T 4F // 3A	115.74	4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz	168.89
			117.10	4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz	170.25
			122.04	4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 4Lo 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A	175.19
			122.37	4Lz3T 4Lo 4F2T 4Lz // 4F 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A	175.52
UNO	51.31	4F // 4T3T 3A	107.34	4Lo 4F 3Lz // 3A3T 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	158.65
			112.69	4Lz 4Lo 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	164.00
			113.12	4Lz 4Lo 3A // 4F2T 4T 4T3T 3A1Lo3F 3S	164.43
			114.94	4Lz 4Lo 4F // 4F2T 3A3T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	166.25
HANYU	51.01	4Lo // 3A 4T3T	103.43	4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	154.44
			105.41	4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 4T2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	156.42
			107.06	4Lo 4S 3F // 4Lo3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3Lz	158.07
			109.83	4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	160.84
			111.26	4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3A	162.27
FERNANDEZ	47.75	4T3T 4S // 3A	100.92	4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4T 3A2T 3Lz3T3Lo 3F 3S	148.67
			102.68	4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4S 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.43
			103.11	4Lo 4S 3A // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.86
			104.41	4Lo 4S2T 3A // 4T3T3Lo 4T 3A2T 3F 3Lz	152.16
JIN	51.33	4Lz3T 3A // 4T	110.78	4Lz3T 4S 4Lo // 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	162.11
			114.10	4Lz3T 4Lo 4Lz // 4T2T 4S 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	165.43
CHAN	48.05	4T3T 4S // 3A	96.08	4F 4S 3A3T // 4T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3Lo 3Lz	144.13
			99.98	4F 4S 3A1Lo3S // 4T3T 3A 3Lz3T 3F 3Lo	148.03
			102.28	4T3T 4F 4S // 4T 3A2T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.33
ZHOU	53.15	4Lz3T 4F // 3A	112.29	4Lz 4F 4S3T // 4T 4S 3A 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3F	165.44

 

*Speculative layouts only

 

EDIT 1: Added Vincent Zhou's possible SP/FS layouts.

 

Looking at the table now...156.42

(Shoma can be 10 points higher, Nathan 20...

[yuzuangel]

43 minutes ago, SSS said:

(Shoma can be 10 points higher, Nathan 20...

[xeyra]

1 hour ago, SSS said:

Looking at the table now...156.42

(Shoma can be 10 points higher, Nathan 20...

 

If he's doing two 3As in this Seimei runthrough, he's going for the 4Lz even if he has replaced it so far with something else. Otherwise he can't do two 3As. Relax, his real BV will be the 111.26 one.

 

Oh wait, nevermind, I just saw the article. Errr.... hoping it's misdirection because otherwise it seems a risky move, to upgrade so little comparatively.

[freeyafanfan]

So the base value of our wishes 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3A is 162.27?

what will be the BV for the announced layout 4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T1Lo3S 4T 3A2T 3Lz?

should be somewhere near 155?  (looking at nathan's possible BV and wow those are some scores)

[Xen]

7 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

If he's doing two 3As in this Seimei runthrough, he's going for the 4Lz even if he has replaced it so far with something else. Otherwise he can't do two 3As. Relax, his real BV will be the 111.26 one.

 

Oh wait, nevermind, I just saw the article. Errr.... hoping it's misdirection because otherwise it seems a risky move, to upgrade so little comparatively.

I think it's misdirection, he did say the 3A at the end was a recovery 3A, and that initial layout only has 7 jumping passes I think.

So if that's the case, then I would imagine that the 4S and the 3A2T jumps are suspect...part of me suspects that he might even go for 4Lz2T cause #justyuzuthings

[AsteroidB-612]

Well... I am starting to think that there is no misdirection, and he will just not have the 4lutz.. because from what he has said thus far and his choice of Chopin and Seimei, his strategy seems to be aiming for consistency and comfort with the programs (like doing normal breathing instead of jumping quads )over risking injury and uncleanliness ... The cleanliness in women singles competition when he watched WTT probably gave him much thoughts(and the fact that he got his WRs from clean performances AND how kuyashiii he was after his last unclean olympic FS probably plays into his decisions as well)

 

Since 4lutz , though not a novelty, will still be a new jump for him, I am leaning towards him not changing his layout from what he chanted to the reporters in that article...no matter how small an upgrade from 3A to 4T is and how large of a BV diffence it is with his competitiors.

[kaeryth]

He IS leaving room for contingencies though. So it might also be just dependent on how clean his opponents will be with their layouts as well.