xeyra Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 At this point, we're looking at these options, unless there's a wrench in the system and Alena doesn't win her first assignment after all: SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 Alexandra TRUSOVA (1+1) 30 Alexandra TRUSOVA (1+1) 30 Alexandra TRUSOVA (1+1) 30 Alexandra TRUSOVA (1+1) 30 Alena KOSTORNAIA (1+1) 30 Alena KOSTORNAIA (1+2) 28 Alena KOSTORNAIA (1+1) 30 Sofia SAMODUROVA (1+1) 30 Daria PANENKOVA (1+2) 28 Rika or Nana (2+1) 28 Sofia SAMODUROVA (1+2) 28 Alena KOSTORNAIA (1+2) 28 Sofia SAMODUROVA (1+3) 26 Daria PANENKOVA (1+2/3) 28/26 Anastasia TARAKANOVA (1+3) 26 Daria PANENKOVA (1+2) 28 Anastasia TARAKANOVA (1+3) 26 Sofia SAMODUROVA (1+3) 26 Daria PANENKOVA (1+3) 26 Anastasia TARAKANOVA (1+3) 26 Rika or Nana (2+2) 26 Anastasia TARAKANOVA (1+3) 26 Rika or Eunsoo or Nana (2+2) 26 Rika or Eunsoo or Nana or Mako (2+3) 24 Edited to correct a couple of math but names remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katonice Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 What a beautiful ina bauer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xeyra Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Another wrench in the system is if Rika and Nana take 1 and 2 in Italy next week, as this would throw a Russian lady off the final, but this is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fay Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, xeyra said: Another wrench in the system is if Rika and Nana take 1 and 2 in Italy next week, as this would throw a Russian lady off the final, but this is unlikely. The real question is whether Sonya copes with the pressure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xeyra Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Fay said: The real question is whether Sonya copes with the pressure... I don't know Samodurova well. Is she known to implode? She only needs a 3rd place to get to the final anyway, that could help her with the pressure against Alena and Rika. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuzupon Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 So, we have 3 girls locked for sure: Trusova, Panenkova, Tarakanova. Are Samodurova and Kostornaya both in the last event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xeyra Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, yuzupon said: So, we have 3 girls locked for sure: Trusova, Panenkova, Tarakanova. Are Samodurova and Kostornaya both in the last event? As you saw in the other thread, yeah. Alena will replace Vasilieva in Italy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katonice Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EisElle Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I got the feeling they're soon going to be 10 in a row... the final will be very scary interesting. Good luck to all the girls that will compete next week, I don't know how they can survive all that pressure... ETA: when did I become Let's Go Crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yatagarasu Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Tally so far: The top 6 in each discipline will get into JGPF. Red confirmed, blue are substitutes. Men Ladies Ice Dance Pairs Alexei KRASNOZHON (USA) 30 Alexey EROKHOV (RUS) 30 Camden PULKINEN (USA) 28 Mitsuki SUMOTO (JPN) 24 Makar IGNATOV (RUS) 24 Joseph PHAN (CAN) 22 Luc ECONOMIDES (FRA) 22 Roman SAVOSIN (RUS) 22 Igor EFIMCHUK (RUS) 18 Conrad ORZEL (CAN) 15 Basar OKTAR (TUR) 14 Andrew TORGASHEV (USA) 13 Alexandra TRUSOVA (RUS) 30 Daria PANENKOVA (RUS) 28 Anastasia TARAKANOVA (RUS) 26 Mako YAMASHITA (JPN) 24 Eunsoo LIM (KOR) 22 Riko TAKINO (JPN) 18 Emmy MA (USA) 18 Alena KOSTORNAIA (RUS) 15 Sofia SAMODUROVA (RUS) 15 Kaitlyn NGUYEN (USA) 14 Nana ARAKI (JPN) 13 Anastasiia GULIAKOVA (RUS) 13 Rika KIHIRA (JPN) 13 Akari MATSUOKA (JPN) 13 Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO (USA) 30 Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA (CAN) 28 Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (RUS) 28 Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (RUS) 28 Caroline GREEN / Gordon GREEN (USA) 24 Ksenia KONKINA / Grigory YAKUSHEV (RUS) 24 Elizaveta KHUDAIBERDIEVA / Nikita NAZAROV (RUS) 22 Eliana GROPMAN / Ian SOMERVILLE (USA) 18 Ashlynne STAIRS / Lee ROYER (CAN) 16 Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (RUS) 15 Shira ICHILOV / Vadim DAVIDOVICH (ISR) 14 Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (RUS) 13 Daria PAVLIUCHENKO / Denis KHODYKIN (RUS) 28 Apollinariia PANFILOVA / Dmitry RYLOV (RUS) 26 Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR (AUS) 24 Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (RUS) 24 Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (RUS) 24 Yumeng GAO / Zhong XIE (CHN) 22 Polina KOSTIUKOVICH / Dmitrii IALIN (RUS) 20 Evelyn WALSH / Trennt MICHAUD (CAN) 20 Laiken LOCKLEY / Keenan PROCHNOW (USA) 14 Audrey LU / Misha MITROFANOV (USA) 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yatagarasu Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 I just realized, even with his 3rd place finish at Brisbane Rukhin never got a 2nd assignment. Now that is odd. You'd think they'd give him a shot anyway. Huh. And as expected Samodurova and Kostornaia at Egna. I've got to feel so bad for Gulyakova but on the other hand, doesn't that say something about the depth of the Junior Russian ladies field? You only got a second assignment if you ended up on top of the podium for the first one. Good grief, cutthroat is an understatement! Which leaves us with the question which Japanese lady goes to JGPF? For me, please let it be Rika. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katonice Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Team Japan in JGP Poland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gladi Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 20 hours ago, Yatagarasu said: I just realized, even with his 3rd place finish at Brisbane Rukhin never got a 2nd assignment. Now that is odd. You'd think they'd give him a shot anyway. Huh. And as expected Samodurova and Kostornaia at Egna. I've got to feel so bad for Gulyakova but on the other hand, doesn't that say something about the depth of the Junior Russian ladies field? You only got a second assignment if you ended up on top of the podium for the first one. Good grief, cutthroat is an understatement! Which leaves us with the question which Japanese lady goes to JGPF? For me, please let it be Rika. Please let it be Rika. If she's clean for both, she should be first place without question. Although, a 2+2 situation should still be enough to get her in? Eunsoo unfortunately helped her a lot with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fay Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Isn't Mitsuki guaranteed a spot at the JGPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xeyra Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 23 hours ago, Fay said: Isn't Mitsuki guaranteed a spot at the JGPF? I did the scenarios and yes, he is! By virtue of having a first place, he'd win the tiebreaker with anyone with 24 points. SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 Alexey EROKHOV (1+1) 30 Alexey EROKHOV (1+1) 30 Alexey EROKHOV (1+1) 30 Alexey EROKHOV (1+1) 30 Alexei KRASNOZHON (1+1) 30 Alexei KRASNOZHON (1+1) 30 Alexei KRASNOZHON (1+1) 30 Alexei KRASNOZHON (1+1) 30 Camden PULKINEN (1+2) 28 Camden PULKINEN (1+2) 28 Camden PULKINEN (1+2) 28 Camden PULKINEN (1+2) 28 Andrew TORGASHEV (2+1) 28 Andrew TORGASHEV (2+1) 28 Egor or Tomoki (3+1) 26 Egor or Tomoki (3+1) 26 Mitsuki SUMOTO (1+4) 24 Mitsuki SUMOTO (1+4) 24 Andrew TORGASHEV (2+2) 26 Mitsuki SUMOTO (1+4) 24 Egor MURASHOV (3+2) 24 Tomoki HIWATASHI (3+2) 24 Mitsuki SUMOTO (1+4) 24 Egor or Tomoki (3+2) 24 Makar IGNATOV (2+3) 24 Makar IGNATOV (2+3) 24 Makar IGNATOV (2+3) 24 Andrew TORGASHEV (2+3) 24 Tomoki HIWATASHI (3+3) 22 Egor MURASHOV (3+3) 22 Egor or Tomoki (3+3) 22 Makar IGNATOV (2+3) 24 Red - Out Blue - Tiebreaker necessary for last place in JGPF The only wrench to this would be if Russia sent Egor RUKHIN to Italy with Egor MURASHOV, both with 11 points but even then... Edit: Corrected some math because I obviously can't do simple sums... and this changes the chances of some 24 pointers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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