Guess Everyone's layouts

[Vulnavia]

3 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

However, judging by things they've said, I do genuinely wonder if they've fully analyzed how the system works.  Yuzu seemed (positively) surprised by his score and previous SP scores.

 

I think that Yuzu was hoping that everyone's GOEs would be judged remotely fairly, which would have given him a big advantage even with slightly lower BV. His SP scores early in the season gave some indication that that might be case, which may partly explain why he was pleasantly surprised. Now he knows that the judges have basically thrown proper GOE and PCS judging out the window, so he needs to refocus on BV. 

[Dreamer]

IMO.. Researching and exploring different perspectives on layout and considerations can be helpful... That is why Yuzu reads/researchs so much, then he can make of it/synthesize his own plans. I don't find it presumptuous at all when one comes from a wanting to be helpful place. 

On some YouTube channels I watch... Some great ideas and solutions came from the YouTube comments which the YouTuber also acknowledged and shared 

 

[MagicFS]

14 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

Yuzu said he couldn't have won even with a clean program - and that's just plain not true.

 

Matched BV + Almost identical technical mistakes = Nathan wins by 10 points in the free skate.

 

I don't think Yuzu is exactly delusional to think he could not have won against Nathan no matter what he did. For if the above is true, then:

 

Perfect Yuzu vs. Perfect Nathan would most likely have resulted in Nathan winning, too...

 

Maybe perfect Yuzu might have beaten a slightly imperfect Nathan, but those are not the odds Yuzu strives for. Besides, it seems that his best when somewhat injured is not good enough any more.

 

Anyway, I don't think it's strictly math that drives Yuzu's team to make the choices they make. I've loved and adored the resulting programs so far. And I really don't want Yuzu to feel that he has to compromise his artistic vision to win... He spoke at length about how he had always been forced to make the choices that would allow him to win up until PC and how he wanted to be freer in his music selection, and skating choices, and aesthetics from then on. I know he's realized that he wants to win it all now. But I hope he'll keep some of that higher-art, extra-Yuzu attitude going forward still--even if it results in programs that are not 100% optimized points-wise.

 

[Old Cat Lady]

15 hours ago, MagicFS said:

 

Matched BV + Almost identical technical mistakes = Nathan wins by 10 points in the free skate.

 

This is a confusing statement since neither of these scenarios are true.  

 

Yuzu's Base value = 91.43 (with stseq4)

Nate's Base value = 94.39

 

Yuzu made 2 mistakes.  What mistake are you saying Nate made?  And if you're including quality issues, then Yuzu had some of those as well.

 

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I don't think Yuzu is exactly delusional to think he could not have won against Nathan no matter what he did. For if the above is true, then:

 

Perfect Yuzu vs. Perfect Nathan would most likely have resulted in Nathan winning, too...

 

Nathan skated the best he ever has while Yuzu did not.  That was the reason Nathan won. (eta: and terrible judging)

 

Had Yuzu been clean, even with the ridiculous GOE's and egregiously inflated PCS Nathan got, Yuzu would have won even with the effects of the injury showing in his skating, provided that Nathan stuck to the same layout.

 

I never implied that Yuzu was "delusional".  But I imagine Yuzu, like almost everyone, was overly influenced by the point gap.  If you don't work with the numbers a lot, it's really hard to understand exactly how impactful every little  error, or even quality issue, can be.

 

Let me run the numbers from worlds:

Nathan's total score from worlds = 107.4+216.02=323.42

Yuzu's total score from worlds = 94.87 + 206.10=300.97

 

SP salchow = BV of 9.7 + GOE (ave in GP was 4.06) of 3.94 + PCS loss of around 2 points = 15.64 points lost

 

LP salchow: < incurred a BV reduction to 7.28 - 1.25 in GOE = 6.03

a 4s with a 4.06 GOE = 13.64

Normal 4s of 13.64 - actual 4s< of 6.03 = 7.61 points lost

 

Stseq level 4 with a GOE of 4 (actual GOE received for his step sequence, though the likelihood is that he would have received a higher one without the minor slip) = 5.46

StSeq level 3 with a GOE of 4 = 4.62

5.46-4.62 = .84 points lost

 

actual score of 300.97 + 15.64 (SP 4s) + 7.61 (LP 4s) + .84 (st seq) = 325.06

 

Also keep in mind that this panel was scoring high in general.  The likelihood is that if Yuzu landed that 4s with his usual quality, he would have gotten closer to 4.5 GOE, which is 14.07 points, adding another .86 points.  He likely lost PCS in the FS as well, adding another point or 2. 

 

He also had several other scratchy landings.  His performance was phenomenal but the injury affected several things, not just these 3 elements that had clear mistakes.  

 

Finally, he essentially gave away points because of the layout.  Even if, for some reason, he physically isn't able to do the 3f/3a, there were better potential point options with minor changes.  With the exact same GOE's on comparable elements, he would have scored 1.49 higher if his layout was 4lo, 4s<, 4t, 3a (SP GOE of 4.29), 4t/2t (seq GOE of 3.28), 3f/e/3s (3 jump combo GOE of 2.71), 3a/3t (2 jump combo GOE of 3.28), StSeq3 GOE of 4

 

This layout is actually easier than the one he did yet it would have scored higher.  However, if you don't play with the numbers a lot, you wouldn't realize it because the base value is lower than his performed layout.

 

Now add up the numbers with the points he lost from the outright mistakes.

325.06 + 1.49 in loss of GOE due to layout = 326.55 + loss in PCS in fs, loss in GOE in st seq

If he did the 3f/3a seq layout, it would have been 326.81

 

 

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Maybe perfect Yuzu might have beaten a slightly imperfect Nathan, but those are not the odds Yuzu strives for. Besides, it seems that his best when somewhat injured is not good enough any more.

 

a perfect Yuzu with all elements landed at his best quality would have comfortably beaten Nathan.  

 

This fs performance by Yuzu would probably have won against Nathan (and every other skater except himself in history) in every skate ever done except at this year's worlds and Nationals.  It was just bad luck that he happened to come off injury when Nate was on a hot streak.

 

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Anyway, I don't think it's strictly math that drives Yuzu's team to make the choices they make.

 

No, I don't think so either.  But the reality is that Yuzu has already compromised somewhat on his vision in order to win.  Semei, Chopin, Otonal, and Origin have all been altered to gain more points.  He'll never go down to Raf's level and I hope he never does, but tweaking the jump layout doesn't diminish the artistic excellence of the program and it's a simple fix.  

[MagicFS]

7 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

What mistake are you saying Nate made? 

His quad flip was underrotated AND he had an obviously weak landing  on it. Yet, he got no UR call and +2 GOE on it. Which gave him an overall 13 points on this element vs. 7 points on Yuzu's quad sal with the same magnitude of mistakes.

 

Both had scratchy landings here and there, indeed. No obvious Nate advantage even jumping-wise. And yes, the BV is not exactly the same but it's sooo close.

 

Yet, Nathan won. BY. 10. POINTS.

 

My whole point is that it is a nice consolation prize for Yuzu's fans to be able to do the math and calculate that a perfect Yuzu should have won in theory. The same theory (and logic) that would inevitably conclude that given what they did on the ice, Yuzu should have won the free skate in Saitama. Yet, he didn't.

 

My whole point is that with the actual judging so unfair and biased the judges might have found a way to give the gold to Nate even if Yuzu had not made the mistakes on the Sal's... And I continue to think it's perfectly concievable for clean Yuzu vs. clean Nate to end in Nate's favor now, unless Yuzu has a significant BV advantage... It's not really about math. It's about how many shortcomings of one you can ignore while punishing the other for every minor misstep.

[Old Cat Lady]

21 minutes ago, MagicFS said:

His quad flip was underrotated AND he had an obviously weak landing  on it. Yet, he got no UR call and +2 GOE on it. Which gave him an overall 13 points on this element vs. 7 points on Yuzu's quad sal with the same magnitude of mistakes.

The 4f was on the border for the quarter mark.  Yuzu's was clearly at or past the quarter.  And I've already acknowledged TWICE that the judging was ridiculous.  Whether Nate's flip deserved the call or not, Yuzu should have won.  The point I was making, and stated explicitly, was that without those mistakes, Yuzu would have won in spite of the terrible judging.

 

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Both had scratchy landings here and there, indeed. No obvious Nate advantage even jumping-wise. And yes, the BV is not exactly the same but it's sooo close.

 

Yet, Nathan won. BY. 10. POINTS.

 

My whole point is that it is a nice consolation prize for Yuzu's fans to be able to do the math and calculate that a perfect Yuzu should have won in theory. The same theory (and logic) that would inevitably conclude that given what they did on the ice, Yuzu should have won the free skate in Saitama. Yet, he didn't.

 

My whole point is that with the actual judging so unfair and biased the judges might have found a way to give the gold to Nate even if Yuzu had not made the mistakes on the Sal's... And I continue to think it's perfectly concievable for clean Yuzu vs. clean Nate to end in Nate's favor now, unless Yuzu has a significant BV advantage... It's not really about math. It's about how many shortcomings of one you can ignore while punishing the other for every minor misstep.

 

I didn't say anything on your previous post because I was giving you the benefit of the doubt, but now it's two posts in a row. There's no need to be so rude.

 

It's certainly possible for clean Nate to win against clean Yuzu and probably will happen in the future.  But in this particular competition, scoring patterns indicate a clean Yuzu would have won.  

[MagicFS]

3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

There's no need to be so rude.

I am so sorry this came off that way! I am super angry at the ISU, not you or any of the fans. I didn't mean that you were doing anything wrong. I am just beyond giving the ISU and its judges the benefit of the doubt. They are the ones that utilize no logic or math unless they are trying to prop up someone.

 

3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

But in this particular competition, scoring patterns indicate a clean Yuzu would have won.  

You're probably right. But something about this statement still sits so wrong with me. It sounds like it's putting some of the blame for losing on Yuzu. When he once again gave it his all under the circumstances, did his best (and more)... He deserved better from the ISU!  I still have some doubts about who would have won because the judging has been that shady, but I guess that's okay--to disagree, I mean. I am really sorry I made you feel bad, though! Thank you for doing the math and going with logic in this highly emotional situation!

 

3 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

It's certainly possible for clean Nate to win against clean Yuzu and probably will happen in the future.

Especially now that Nathan is a two-time world champion and has amazing reputation of consistency under pressure...

 

I just had a very unpleasant thought that they will have to switch the PCS advantage in Nathan's favor, so that Nate would have a chance to win against higher-BV Yuzu... Nathan will suddenly become more "understandably" artistic than Yuzu with his "flat" music probably...

 

About the 4t-3a, I love it so much! It's huuuuge, gorgeous, and looks effortless. I wish he could keep it because it's so impressive. But I'll understand if he has to give it up to get more points.  It's still my favorite jumping pass! 

[makebelieveup]

I've been reading the conversation and I agree with both? It seems like even with scratchy landings, had Yuzu landed them all and gotten all his levels, even with a lower BV, yuzu would have won assuming Old Cat Lady's calculations hold true to the juding (at least, at this point. I also couldnt see why not considering how well Yuzu performed at the beginning of the season. I mean his SP got 110 even with a lower BV than Nathan. So tbh, with the same BV, Yuzu would have comfortably won if both went clean. But since Yuzu's always had a lower BV, his consistency in the SP and small PCS advangage will win over a high BV Nathan. And all of this is already considering that the judging has been ridiculous.

 

So at Worlds, I get why he got 10 points less than Nathan. But of course, it should not have been that way, because even with some mistakes, yuzu should still have won at least the free skate.

 

Now that its post World and we are in an era of a whole new level of inflation, Yuzu might not get that PCS gap anymore. Remember Zhenya and Alina's situation? A clean Zhenya could get up to 80 points in the sp and 160 in the free due to her PC margin at her prime EVEN with a lower bv than Alina's. Then Alina came along to show how she beated Zhenya twice in the 2017/2018 season. But at the Olympics, while Alina won Zhenya, Zhenya still had the PC advantage. Then slowly with all that happened to Zhenya and her inconsistency, her PCS dropped whilr Alina has become the skater with the highest PC. At Worlds, two clean programs from her and from Alina's now have such a huge point gap. (Sorry not sure how clean she was I didnt reallly watch her free.) It's gonna happen to Alina and Rika (if Rika is able to be more consistent at skating two clean programs next season with her 3 3as.) and probably Alena, Anna, and Alexandra, who will go senior next season.

 

My point is I agree that they are going to make Nathan be the highest PCS skater now with his reputation UNLESS he loses to Yuzu at WTT (which wont happen since Yuzu isnt competing and his current condition, and this is actually a chance for Nathan to break three new records given how inflated WTT usually is) The narrative has never been Nathan winning an injured Yuzuru with mistakes. It is a "The defending champion and Yale student winning perfectly with a big margin over a the 2x olympic champion at his home country." And I think the new system is just an opportunity for ISU to wipe clean the whole idea that Yuzu should still be the highest PCS skater and that a perfect Yuzuru cannot be beaten. I think before Yuzu needs to get that BV advantage, what he needs to do is to be more consistent at skating two clean programs. Because even if he wont get that GOE or PCS advantage anymore, he can still win easily over the other skaters. Plus, consistency is one of the factors that magically increase PCS and GOEs and skating two programs clean will help with the total comb record. While Yuzu at his very best could get 223 in the free and 112 in the sp before, how many times could he put two of thr scores close to these at one competition? So consistency is the answer. The better answer is to have correct judging, thats all.

[Old Cat Lady]

12 hours ago, MagicFS said:

I am so sorry this came off that way! I am super angry at the ISU, not you or any of the fans. I didn't mean that you were doing anything wrong. I am just beyond giving the ISU and its judges the benefit of the doubt. They are the ones that utilize no logic or math unless they are trying to prop up someone.

 

Thank you for being so receptive. I totally understand your frustration.  I feel it too.  I really liked the system in theory and I felt positive about the fact that I generally agreed with the GOE judging in the old system but after worlds, I'm losing hope.

 

12 hours ago, MagicFS said:

You're probably right. But something about this statement still sits so wrong with me. It sounds like it's putting some of the blame for losing on Yuzu. When he once again gave it his all under the circumstances, did his best (and more)... He deserved better from the ISU! 

 

Lol, part of the reason I put so much work into it is because I get really annoyed at people (not you, other forums) who try to claim that Nathan is unbeatable and use the point gap to try to claim that he's surpassed Yuzu.  That's why I focus so much on letting people know that the difference in score would have been made up by the Salchow mistakes.  However, even disregarding the bad joke that the judges made of the PCS score, Yuzu should have won if GOE bullets were properly applied.  Geez, if Nathan doesn't deserve the "long prep" or "small jump" deductions, then who does?  The judges have shown that you might as well just eliminate that bullet since they won't apply it anyways.

 

12 hours ago, MagicFS said:

I just had a very unpleasant thought that they will have to switch the PCS advantage in Nathan's favor, so that Nate would have a chance to win against higher-BV Yuzu... Nathan will suddenly become more "understandably" artistic than Yuzu with his "flat" music probably...

I don't think clean Nathan will ever get higher PCS than clean Yuzu because there's just too much to overlook, but judges will make it irrelevant the way they did at worlds.  Essentially just making it a tie breaker.  I certainly see the day when clean Nathan will get higher PCS than a slightly flawed Yuzu.  

 

9 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

My point is I agree that they are going to make Nathan be the highest PCS skater now with his reputation UNLESS he loses to Yuzu at WTT (which wont happen since Yuzu isnt competing and his current condition, and this is actually a chance for Nathan to break three new records given how inflated WTT usually is) The narrative has never been Nathan winning an injured Yuzuru with mistakes. It is a "The defending champion and Yale student winning perfectly with a big margin over a the 2x olympic champion at his home country." And I think the new system is just an opportunity for ISU to wipe clean the whole idea that Yuzu should still be the highest PCS skater and that a perfect Yuzuru cannot be beaten. I think before Yuzu needs to get that BV advantage, what he needs to do is to be more consistent at skating two clean programs. Because even if he wont get that GOE or PCS advantage anymore, he can still win easily over the other skaters. Plus, consistency is one of the factors that magically increase PCS and GOEs and skating two programs clean will help with the total comb record. While Yuzu at his very best could get 223 in the free and 112 in the sp before, how many times could he put two of thr scores close to these at one competition? So consistency is the answer. The better answer is to have correct judging, thats all.

 

The thing that drives me crazy is that the Nathan stans like to tout his consistency but it's so much easier to be consistent when you're gliding into tiny jumps for 2 seconds and not expending energy on transitions.  That's why I was thinking that Yuzu should water down his jump layout at the beginning of the season - to make sure he can be consistent and build up that PCS baseline but his mind just doesn't work that way and that strategy might actually backfire (remember the 2017 Autumn Classic).  

 

I forgot to mention one thing in my original post about way to maximize posts.  Part of me wants Yuzu to just spend the summer working on his jumps during the summer and wait until Nathan announces his music choices.  Then use the same music to make it undeniable who's actually interpreting the music. I know that's douchey and Yuzu would never do that, but a small part of me wishes Yuzu would be more cutthroat since the judges/media/fans will look for any excuse to deny giving him proper credit.  I wish the SP was more like the original dance from the 90's, so you could compare skaters on a level a playing field as possible.

 

Unfortunately it's moot whether a clean Yuzu would have beaten Nate this year because by next year or the year after,  that won't be true anyways.  If Yuzu does plan to compete for a few more years, he is making the right decision by upgrading the tech.  Even with that in mind, I don't think it's necessarily the right decision to work on the 4f, though I understand that he wants to avoid being hurt as much by ice conditions.  It seems that it's best to work on only the jumps absolutely necessary for competition so that he can work on consistency.

[makebelieveup]

40 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

The thing that drives me crazy is that the Nathan stans like to tout his consistency but it's so much easier to be consistent when you're gliding into tiny jumps for 2 seconds and not expending energy on transitions.  That's why I was thinking that Yuzu should water down his jump layout at the beginning of the season - to make sure he can be consistent and build up that PCS baseline but his mind just doesn't work that way and that strategy might actually backfire (remember the 2017 Autumn Classic).  

 

I forgot to mention one thing in my original post about way to maximize posts.  Part of me wants Yuzu to just spend the summer working on his jumps during the summer and wait until Nathan announces his music choices.  Then use the same music to make it undeniable who's actually interpreting the music. I know that's douchey and Yuzu would never do that, but a small part of me wishes Yuzu would be more cutthroat since the judges/media/fans will look for any excuse to deny giving him proper credit.  I wish the SP was more like the original dance from the 90's, so you could compare skaters on a level a playing field as possible.

 

Unfortunately it's moot whether a clean Yuzu would have beaten Nate this year because by next year or the year after,  that won't be true anyways.  If Yuzu does plan to compete for a few more years, he is making the right decision by upgrading the tech.  Even with that in mind, I don't think it's necessarily the right decision to work on the 4f, though I understand that he wants to avoid being hurt as much by ice conditions.  It seems that it's best to work on only the jumps absolutely necessary for competition so that he can work on consistency.

 

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That's why I was thinking that Yuzu should water down his jump layout at the beginning of the season - to make sure he can be consistent and build up that PCS baseline but his mind just doesn't work that way and that strategy might actually backfire (remember the 2017 Autumn Classic).  

 

I agree with this. He needs to not go for 4 quads in the beginning of the season. Nathan didn't either and still won throughout the season (lucky him Yuzu didn't compete at GPF tho)

 

Yeah I think the problem with Yuzu's free program this season is it's so packed with transitions that it's draining his energy for the jumps. Origin is a program that it takes someone as good as Yuzu at his best to make it work, and right now he isn't at his best. I think he should try a slower piece next season for the free and a faster piece for the short. But I'm just like upset because why does Yuzu even have to strategize all this much or be at his very best in order to win? Why does he even have to up his tech? Like IF judging had ever been fair, Yuzu would have won Worlds even with 2 mistakes and the lost levels. That would happen if Nathan were to get 85 in his PCS and lower GOEs, while Yuzu getting high GOEs and high 90s. But that didn't happen and will never happen in a million year now. 

 

and ehhh yeah I don't think that skating to the same music will do any good for Yuzu. 1 is Yuzu's music choice is completely different from Nathan's. 2 is we clearly don't need this to see who interprets the music better. The judges don't care, really. 3 is it doesn't look good on Yuzu's part and you're right that he would never do something like that. 

 

I don't know if Yuzu should be explicitly declaring that he will compete for Beijing in order for judges to keep him in the game now. Like his plan in doing a 4flip, 4lz, and 4axel obviously requires a lot of time to fulfill. But they want to push him to say it, which isn't a good thing for Yuzu because he doesn't need that pressure. He already has enough of his own. So it's going to be a hard road ahead for him. Figure skating world will be using his fame to benefit but won't reward him for what he does. Wish Yuzu the best next season. I just want him to be happy and healthy, dang it! Retire happy already!

[Old Cat Lady]

2 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

 

and ehhh yeah I don't think that skating to the same music will do any good for Yuzu. 1 is Yuzu's music choice is completely different from Nathan's. 2 is we clearly don't need this to see who interprets the music better. The judges don't care, really. 3 is it doesn't look good on Yuzu's part and you're right that he would never do something like that. 

 

I wouldn't seriously suggest it. Unfortunately one of the big competitive disadvantages for Yuzu is that he actually has an artistic vision whereas Nathan prioritizes the tech and is fine just doing what he's told choreographically - these are things that Nate and Raf have said themselves.  From a competitive standpoint, Yuzu's programs are terribly structured because he loses so much more than he gains.

 

But one of the things people often like to claim is that Nathan's isn't less artistic, just has a different style or hold Yuzu's music against him.  You can't do that if they're skating to the same thing.  One of the things I liked about the older style original dance is that it truly separated the artists from the rest.  Yes, you could get lucky and have a type of dance that happened to suit your style, but only those who have a true talent for interpreting music will do well year after year.

 

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I don't know if Yuzu should be explicitly declaring that he will compete for Beijing in order for judges to keep him in the game now. Like his plan in doing a 4flip, 4lz, and 4axel obviously requires a lot of time to fulfill. But they want to push him to say it, which isn't a good thing for Yuzu because he doesn't need that pressure. He already has enough of his own. So it's going to be a hard road ahead for him. Figure skating world will be using his fame to benefit but won't reward him for what he does. Wish Yuzu the best next season. I just want him to be happy and healthy, dang it! Retire happy already!

 

What I'd really like for Yuzu to do is declare his immediate retirement, spend a year or two healing, then do Ciontu while worlds is going on. There's probably some rule against that, but I am really curious about how ticket sales will be without him - previous to this, we never knew because most tickets would have already been sold by the time people knew he wasn't going to be there.

 

If he's fit and able after healing, then he can commit to Beijing.  I know Yuzu is worried because after Patrick took a year off he wasn't very competitive anymore but Patrick didn't fall behind because he took time off; he fell behind because he half assed his come back.  Unlike Patrick, Yuzu has always kept close tabs on his competitors and worked to stay ahead of the game.

 

btw, if Yuzu decides on a 5 quad layout next year, these are the base values as well as the scores if everything got a GOE of 3

SP - 4lo, 3a, 4t/3t* (using same layout for all calculations)

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/2t*, 3a/e/3s*, 3a/3t *

BV: 144.65

GOE 3: 182.81

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/3t, 3a/e/3s, 3f/3a seq

BV: 146.12

GOE 3: 184.28

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/3a seq, 3f/3t/2lo, 3a/3t

BV: 146.41

GOE 3: 183.76

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/2t, 3f/3a seq, 3a/3t/3lo (I only include this because I saw that clip of him doing 4t/3t/3lo)

BV: 147.66

GOE 3: 185.82

 

Previously I stated that it wasn't worth it to do 4lo in the short because of the lower GOE but I believe I was wrong.  He still gets more points for a 3 GOE 4lo than a 4 GOE 4s. And in the old system, he got equal or higher GOE for the loop than the salchow.  I kept the 4t/3t because it's so consistent and the difference in value from 4s and 4t is only .02.

 

I didn't include any layouts with 3 lo as the second jump in the combo as I imagine the motion is different with the greater impact so being able to do it on a 3 jump combo doesn't necessarily mean he can do it on a 2 jump combo.  

 

 

In comparison, Chen's layout

SP: 3a, 4lz, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lz, 4f, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz/3t*

BV: 142.56

GOE 3: 179.28

 

SP: 3a, 4lz, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lz, 4f, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4t/3t*, 3f/e/3s*

BV: 146.72

GOE 3: 184.58

[makebelieveup]

34 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

I wouldn't seriously suggest it. Unfortunately one of the big competitive disadvantages for Yuzu is that he actually has an artistic vision whereas Nathan prioritizes the tech and is fine just doing what he's told choreographically - these are things that Nate and Raf have said themselves.  From a competitive standpoint, Yuzu's programs are terribly structured because he loses so much more than he gains.

 

But one of the things people often like to claim is that Nathan's isn't less artistic, just has a different style or hold Yuzu's music against him.  You can't do that if they're skating to the same thing.  One of the things I liked about the older style original dance is that it truly separated the artists from the rest.  Yes, you could get lucky and have a type of dance that happened to suit your style, but only those who have a true talent for interpreting music will do well year after year.

 

 

What I'd really like for Yuzu to do is declare his immediate retirement, spend a year or two healing, then do Ciontu while worlds is going on. There's probably some rule against that, but I am really curious about how ticket sales will be without him - previous to this, we never knew because most tickets would have already been sold by the time people knew he wasn't going to be there.

 

If he's fit and able after healing, then he can commit to Beijing.  I know Yuzu is worried because after Patrick took a year off he wasn't very competitive anymore but Patrick didn't fall behind because he took time off; he fell behind because he half assed his come back.  Unlike Patrick, Yuzu has always kept close tabs on his competitors and worked to stay ahead of the game.

 

btw, if Yuzu decides on a 5 quad layout next year, these are the base values as well as the scores if everything got a GOE of 3

SP - 4lo, 3a, 4t/3t* (using same layout for all calculations)

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/2t*, 3a/e/3s*, 3a/3t *

BV: 144.65

GOE 3: 182.81

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/3t, 3a/e/3s, 3f/3a seq

BV: 146.12

GOE 3: 184.28

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/3a seq, 3f/3t/2lo, 3a/3t

BV: 146.41

GOE 3: 183.76

 

LP - 4lz, 4lo, 4s, 4t, 4t/2t, 3f/3a seq, 3a/3t/3lo (I only include this because I saw that clip of him doing 4t/3t/3lo)

BV: 147.66

GOE 3: 185.82

 

Previously I stated that it wasn't worth it to do 4lo in the short because of the lower GOE but I believe I was wrong.  He still gets more points for a 3 GOE 4lo than a 4 GOE 4s. And in the old system, he got equal or higher GOE for the loop than the salchow.  I kept the 4t/3t because it's so consistent and the difference in value from 4s and 4t is only .02.

 

I didn't include any layouts with 3 lo as the second jump in the combo as I imagine the motion is different with the greater impact so being able to do it on a 3 jump combo doesn't necessarily mean he can do it on a 2 jump combo.  

 

 

In comparison, Chen's layout

SP: 3a, 4lz, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lz, 4f, 4t, 3a, 4t/3t*, 3f/e/3s*, 3lz/3t*

BV: 142.56

GOE 3: 179.28

 

SP: 3a, 4lz, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lz, 4f, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t*, 4t/3t*, 3f/e/3s*

BV: 146.72

GOE 3: 184.58

Realistically, I don't think Yuzu can do a 5 quad layout clean. dont @ me. I only feel this way bc i feel like he couldnt do it in the past and now with his condition and a 4 minute rule, it is pretty tough unless he is willing to bomb in a lot of comps. He really bombed at ACI 2017 and couldnt do it at Rostelecom cup. The closest he came to this was 4cc with one fall. But well if he does retire and have at least a year of rehab and full training for it, he might be able to. But here is the thing, without Yuzu competing, imagine how Nathan will dominate the discipline and how much more will he be scored in an empty house. Without a competitor to hold him back, ISU will try to raise other competitors like Vincent, Samarin, Gogolev, grassl...etc new faces in the next year or two. I am not sure if this is a good idea for Yuzu to suddenly unretire around Beijing. I feel like they would know Beijing could be Yuzu's last comp before he retires again, so they don't have any incentive to crown him. but then yeah it could be the same idea even if he stayed

 

btw, that third lp layout seems like a good layout bc if he does 5 quad, of course chen would as well. i think the combos seem most promising

[Old Cat Lady]

23 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

Realistically, I don't think Yuzu can do a 5 quad layout clean. dont @ me. I only feel this way bc i feel like he couldnt do it in the past and now with his condition and a 4 minute rule, it is pretty tough unless he is willing to bomb in a lot of comps. He really bombed at ACI 2017 and couldnt do it at Rostelecom cup. The closest he came to this was 4cc with one fall. But well if he does retire and have at least a year of rehab and full training for it, he might be able to. But here is the thing, without Yuzu competing, imagine how Nathan will dominate the discipline and how much more will he be scored in an empty house. Without a competitor to hold him back, ISU will try to raise other competitors like Vincent, Samarin, Gogolev, grassl...etc new faces in the next year or two. I am not sure if this is a good idea for Yuzu to suddenly unretire around Beijing. I feel like they would know Beijing could be Yuzu's last comp before he retires again, so they don't have any incentive to crown him. but then yeah it could be the same idea even if he stayed

 

I wonder if Yuzu is better off getting creative with combos rather than trying to learn new jumps. We've seen that clip of him doing 2s/e/4s.  Maybe he'd be able to do 4t on the back end.

 

SP: 4lo, 3a, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lz, 3f/4t*, 3a/e/3s, 3a/3t

BV: 143.45

GOE 3: 179.93

 

SP: 4lo, 3a, 4t/3t*

LP: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lz, 3f/4t*, 3a/2t*, 3a/3t/3lo*

BV: 144.99

GOE 3: 181.47

 

If he's able to do the 3 triple combo, he'd be better off with 

LP: 4lo, 4s, 4t, 3a, 3f/4t*, 3a/2t*, 3lz/3t/3lo*

He's much more likely to get a 4+ GOE on a 3a than a 3lz, more than making up for the slight loss in BV.

[rockstaryuzu]

On 4/4/2019 at 9:42 PM, makebelieveup said:

Realistically, I don't think Yuzu can do a 5 quad layout clean.

To be honest, I don't think any of the men can do it in 4 minutes. Yuzu's pretty well the only one who can do quads out of nowhere, the rest of them need set-up, which takes precious seconds away from the rest of the program. When you factor in what else needs to be done in that time, and how much stamina it takes to leap like that in the first place, I'm not expecting any five quad layouts anytime soon. 

[Henni147]

My latest calculations in the general chat made me realize some really crazy things in the current scoring system. I'd like to summarize everything here:

 

1. Short program

The layout with the highest possible base value and scoring potential is the following:

Spoiler

Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4Lz	11.50	5.75	17.25
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
X 4A+3Lz	20.24	6.25	26.49
CCSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
FLSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
Total	53.54	22.90	76.44

 

The 4A+3Lz combo with change of rotation direction is allowed, but I don't think that anyone will ever attempt it... Even a 4A+3T would be very ambitious, especially in the second half, but that might be possible. I was a bit surprised that layback spins have higher value than sit spins but... well whatever.

 

2. Free skating

Now it's getting interesting. To get the highest scoring layout, we need 11 jumps and repeat the quad and triple with the highest BV:

4A (2×), 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo, 4S, 4T, 3A (2×), 3Lz and 3F. Now we have to distribute them.

 

The layout with the highest possible base value would be this one:

Spoiler

Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4T	9.50	4.75	14.25
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
3Lz	5.90	2.95	8.85
3F	5.30	2.65	7.95
X 4A+4Lo	25.30	6.25	31.55
X 4iA+4S	24.42	6.25	30.67
X 3iA+4F+4Lz	33.55	5.75	39.30
FCSp4	3.20	1.50	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
FCCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
ChSq1	3.00	2.50	5.50
Total	129.07	42.15	171.22

 

We don't talk about the difficulty of the three combos, okay?  That little "i" means inside edge landing.

 

However, this is not the highest scoring layout, because the GOE for the solo triples is pretty low. For an ideal GOE output it's best to separate the seven highest scoring jumps and not to put them in combo (the 4A+4T is an exception, because a 4A+3A sequence would be a huge waste of BV):

Spoiler

Element	BV	max. GOE	max. TES
4F	11.00	5.50	16.50
4Lo	10.50	5.25	15.75
4S	9.70	4.85	14.55
3A	8.00	4.00	12.00
X 4A+4T	24.20	6.25	30.45
X 4iA+3F+3Lz	26.07	6.25	32.32
X 3A+4Lz	21.45	5.75	27.20
FCSp4	3.20	1.60	4.80
CCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
FCCoSp4	3.50	1.75	5.25
StSq4	3.90	1.95	5.85
ChSq1	3.00	2.50	5.50
Total	128.02	47.40	175.42

 

So 4+4 combos are not really worth the huge risk and effort. Not even in the second half, because the loss in GOE is higher than the 10% reward in BV.

 

 

I want to go away from ridiculous layouts and suggest one, which is extremely tough but realistic imo:

Spoiler

SP:

Jumps: 4A, 3A // 4T+3T

Spins/Seq: FCSp4, CSSp4, CCoSp4, StSq4

BV: 49.17   Max. GOE: 21.80   Max. TES: 70.97   Max. TSS: 120.97

 

FS:

Jumps: 4A, 4Lz, 4F, 4S // 4T+3T, 3A+3T, 3A+1Eu+3S

Spins/Seq: FCSp4, CCoSp4, FCCoSp4, StSq4, ChSq1

BV: 104.17   Max. GOE: 44.65   Max. TES: 148.47   Max. TSS: 248.47

 

Max. combined total: 369.44

With this layout and two clean skates it's not impossible to surpass 350. The GOE potential is nearly maximized in both programs.

As a comparison the max. GOE for this season's layouts: Otonal: 20.40  Origin: 38.25

 

Maybe a 100% healthy Yuzu could do it, but I'm not sure, if his damaged ankle survives this... 5 quads and 2 triple Axels in 4:00... and we're talking about 4A, 4Lz and 4F in one program... 

 

 

A full-force SP and 6-quad-FS layout for Nathan could look like this (maybe he would work on a quad+1Eu+3S combo to replace the 2T+2T, but that wouldn't make much difference in points):

Spoiler

SP:

Jumps: 4Lz+3T, 3A // 4F

Spins/Seq: CCSp4, FSSp4, CCoSp4, StSq4

BV: 49.40   Max. GOE: 22.05   Max. TES: 71.45   Max. TSS: 121.45

 

FS:

Jumps: 4Lz+3T, 4Lo, 4S, 3A // 4F, 4T+3T, 4T+2T+2T

Spins/Seq: CCSp4, CCoSp4, FCCoSp4, StSq4, ChSq1

BV: 101.48   Max. GOE: 44.40   Max. TES: 145.88   Max. TSS: 245.88

 

Max. combined total: 367.33

So we can see that a 5-quad-program from Yuzu with 4A, 4Lz, 4F could have a higher BV than a 6-quad-program from Nathan. The 4A, the additional 3A and the 10% bonus for the three combos make the difference.