Guess Everyone's layouts

[Old Cat Lady]

Made a mistake.  The 4s at Lombardia was actually the highest 4s score Shoma's gotten this year.  But still, his average points for the 4s is lower than what he got for the 3lo at 4CC.  He also hasn't landed a 4t/3t cleanly all year and has only attempted it once, where he stepped out of it.

 

If you go by the following layout:

SP: 4t/2t, 4f, 3a* 

FS: 4s<, 4f, 4t, 4t/2t, 3a*, 3a/e/3f*, 3s/3t*

 

Max GOE: 106.55+207.18 = 313.73

Ave GOE of landed jumps in GP and later:104.43+202.68= 307.11

[Old Cat Lady]

I highly doubt that Yuzu would do this layout, but based on previous competitions and with the assumption that he's avoiding lutz unless necessary, I think his highest scoring reasonable layout for the free skate is

 

4lo, 4s, 4t, 3lo, 4t/3t*, 3f/3a seq*,  3a/e/3s*

 

The seq penalty doesn't hit nearly as hard if he does it on the triple instead of the quad.  While I've never seen him do a flip/axel sequence, I'm thinking it's reasonable to think he can attach the axel to a 3 flip if he's able to do it with the 4t and I believe this means he gets the GOE points for the axel instead of the flip.

BV: 92.35

3 GOE: 116.05

4 GOE: 123.95

 

He would score slightly higher if he does 3lo/3a seq instead but he never combos the loop and the motion is so different than the other jumps that I think it might be difficult to adjust to even though it's on the front end.

 

Obviously if the 3 lutz is good, then he'd replace the loop with the lutz.  

 

[Old Cat Lady]

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I made a worksheet to see what the big 3 would have gotten if they skated their planned layout cleanly in each of their competitions.  I used the highest PCS for each segment in all the programs.  None of them skated a completely clean free skate and Nathan doesn't have a completely clean SP so their PCS scores are probably a bit lower than what they would get for a clean program.   I only changed the GOE for step outs or falls.  I tried to replace any jump error GOE with a clean element from the same competition but if there wasn't a comparable one, I just plugged in a 3.   I also adjusted all levels to lvl 4 and pops to what I think they were trying to attempt in the moment 

 

Nathan - Different layouts for every event.  SP PCS = 44.64 (SA), LP PCS = 90.94 (SA)

Skate America:  100.98+193.18=294.16 

IDF:  100.29 + 196.06 = 296.35

GPF: 105.92 + 209.15 = 315.06  - only competition with 6 quads

Average Score = 301.86

 

Shoma - SP PCS = 46.35 (Lombardia), LP PCS = 92.88 (4CC).  I changed all the SP layouts to 4t/3t even though he only attempted it in 1 event, with the assumption that it was because something was wrong rather than what he planned.  I also removed all < in spite of getting them in every event.

Lombardia: 107.76 + 208.19 = 315.95 

Skate Canada: 106.53+209.54 = 316.06

NHK: 108.23 + 210.29 = 318.52

GPF: 106.19 + 207.88 = 314.08

4CC: 97.26 + 201.15 = 298.41 (only competition with only 4 quads)

Average Score = 312.60

 

Since Shoma's doubled the 3t of the combo in the short of every event except Sk Can and < or stepped out of the 4s in every event, I also figured his scores with 4s< and 4t/2t

Lombardia: 307.72

Skate Canada: 310.73

NHK: 310.29

GPF: 305.85

4CC: 298.41 (no change needed to layout)

Average Score = 306.60

 

Yuzu - SP PCS = 48.09 (Rostelecom), LP PCS = 92.42 (Helsinki)

Autumn Classic: 108.37 + 205.63 = 314 (had to make a lot of changes to layout due to mistakes)

Helsinki: 109.93 + 209.18 = 319.11

Rostelecom: 110.53 + 203.59 = 314.99 (only 5 quads instead of 6)

Average Score = 315.74

 

Notable that Yuzu's Rostelecom score ended up being higher than his Autumn Classic score in spite of me changing his layout at AC to 6 attempted quads because of lower quality elements.  Nathan's 6 quad BV at GPF was 10 points higher than Yuzu's 5 quad Rostelecom BV but there is only .07 difference in score.

 

[WinForPooh]

1 hour ago, Old Cat Lady said:

Because I'm an obsessive nutjob, I made a worksheet to see what the big 3 would have gotten if they skated their planned layout cleanly in each of their competitions.  I used the highest PCS for each segment in all the programs.  None of them skated a completely clean free skate and Nathan doesn't have a completely clean SP so their PCS scores are probably a bit lower than what they would get for a clean program.   I only changed the GOE for step outs or falls.  I tried to replace any jump error GOE with a clean element from the same competition but if there wasn't a comparable one, I just plugged in a 3.   I also adjusted all levels to lvl 4 and pops to what I think they were trying to attempt in the moment 

 

Nathan - Different layouts for every event.  SP PCS = 44.64 (SA), LP PCS = 90.94 (SA)

Skate America:  100.98+193.18=294.16 

IDF:  100.29 + 196.06 = 296.35

GPF: 105.92 + 209.15 = 315.06  - only competition with 6 quads

Average Score = 301.86

 

Shoma - SP PCS = 46.35 (Lombardia), LP PCS = 92.88 (4CC).  I changed all the SP layouts to 4t/3t even though he only attempted it in 1 event, with the assumption that it was because something was wrong rather than what he planned.  I also removed all < in spite of getting them in every event.

Lombardia: 107.76 + 208.19 = 315.95 

Skate Canada: 106.53+209.54 = 316.06

NHK: 108.23 + 210.29 = 318.52

GPF: 106.19 + 207.88 = 314.08

4CC: 97.26 + 201.15 = 298.41 (only competition with only 4 quads)

Average Score = 312.60

 

Since Shoma's doubled the 3t of the combo in the short of every event except Sk Can and < or stepped out of the 4s in every event, I also figured his scores with 4s< and 4t/2t

Lombardia: 307.72

Skate Canada: 310.73

NHK: 310.29

GPF: 305.85

4CC: 298.41 (no change needed to layout)

Average Score = 306.60

 

Yuzu - SP PCS = 48.09 (Rostelecom), LP PCS = 92.42 (Helsinki)

Autumn Classic: 108.37 + 205.63 = 314 (had to make a lot of changes to layout due to mistakes)

Helsinki: 109.93 + 209.18 = 319.11

Rostelecom: 110.53 + 203.59 = 314.99 (only 5 quads instead of 6)

Average Score = 315.74

 

Notable that Yuzu's Rostelecom score ended up being higher than his Autumn Classic score in spite of me changing his layout at AC to 6 attempted quads because of lower quality elements.  Nathan's 6 quad BV at GPF was 10 points higher than Yuzu's 5 quad Rostelecom BV but there is only .07 difference in score.

 

 

...

 

Wow that's a lot of work, and very interesting! 

 

Did you by any chance work with the possibility of Yuzu doing a 4S-3T in either his SP or his free skate? If he doesn't bring the 4T-3A sequence back, he might go back to his LGC/H&L layout, the latter adapted to seven jumping passes, of course. 4Lo 4S 4T 4S-3T 3A-eu-3S 3A-2T 3F (not in that order) isn't out of the question for him. Maybe not for the SP because Otonal is really approaching perfection but he did sacrifice a little of his vision to move the combo to bonus so it's not impossible. If 4Lo is back and behaving well enough to make it worth it, of course. I lean towards Otonal staying as it is because his GOEs and PCS on it are excellent and it's more reliable, but he's been chopping and changing Origin all season.

[Old Cat Lady]

I tried it with 2016/2017 layout though I don't think it's as informative since we don't have as much data.  I think Yuzu generally gets lower GOE on loop than toe so I dropped his loop GOE to 3.  I used the same GOE for 4s/3t as he got in each of the events for 4t/3t, though I'm sure he'd get higher GOE for 4t/3t. I just used the loop GOE for his flips - I haven't looked that closely at it but I don't think there's a big GOE difference unless he gets an edge call for the flip.  All the combos are in the bonus section

 

Autumn Classic = 109.12 + 206.31 = 315.43

Helsinki = 109.86 + 209.31 = 319.18

Rostelecom = 110.46 + 203.18= 313.65 - I kept this to only 5 quads so that the comparison is more relevant. No 4lo in FS but replaced 2nd 4t w/4s.

Average score = 316.08

 

The Rostelecom score actually went down in spite of a higher BV because of the higher GOE on 4t and 4s than 4lo.  Helsinki only went up by .07.  Unless Yuzu can get equal or better GOE on the loop vs. toe, it's not worth the risk.  The only place it seemed to make a significant difference in score is at the Autumn Classic where several of his elements were lower quality - the poorer the quality of elements, the more the base value matters.

[makebelieveup]

Now that we know the new level of GOE and PCS his competitors are getting this season, lets put them into consideration how Yuzu would need to up his bv to really stay competitive next season. Of course we know he wants to start training 4A and 4Flip and get back 4Lz. but I dont think that would be realistic for next season due to his current injuries. What I do think he can do is adding a -loop to his jump just because while it might make an extremely hard combo, it can come into handy to not zayak his other jumps. Or what he can do is still keep the 4loop but here's what he would need to do:

 

4loop

4S

3Lz

3F

4T3A SEQ*

4T3T*

3Aeu3S*

 

These are all the jumps he has been doing successfully in competitions. I calculated the base value and it is almost as high as Chen's. While 4T3A might be a difficult combo for others, with Yuzu he has been doing it for a while and he did get 2/2 success level in competition. I feel like this IS his element, a wow element and it will def help if he keeps it for next season. I dont think he should take it out. JUMP BV TES =75.95

this is barely 1.5 points off of Chen's JUMP BV TES 77.29 at worlds

 

of course Yuzu doesnt want to win with just slight points over other skaters but I think if Yuzu wants to stay safe about his next season, he can try this. He can also cut back some transitions to go into these jumps and focus more on getting the levels in his stsq and spins. 

 

And by no means am I advocating him to be mediocre in his inbetweens. I just think he needs a game plan for next season bc he has injuries to take into consideration and he needs a way to deal conserving energy for the 4 min. if he tries a new slower program then it makes sense to keep the many transitions but if he decides to stick with Origin, i think cutting back half of the moves is still good enough

 

[Old Cat Lady]

3 hours ago, makebelieveup said:

Now that we know the new level of GOE and PCS his competitors are getting this season, lets put them into consideration how Yuzu would need to up his bv to really stay competitive next season. Of course we know he wants to start training 4A and 4Flip and get back 4Lz. but I dont think that would be realistic for next season due to his current injuries. What I do think he can do is adding a -loop to his jump just because while it might make an extremely hard combo, it can come into handy to not zayak his other jumps. Or what he can do is still keep the 4loop but here's what he would need to do:

 

4loop

4S

3Lz

3F

4T3A SEQ*

4T3T*

3Aeu3S*

 

These are all the jumps he has been doing successfully in competitions. I calculated the base value and it is almost as high as Chen's. While 4T3A might be a difficult combo for others, with Yuzu he has been doing it for a while and he did get 2/2 success level in competition. I feel like this IS his element, a wow element and it will def help if he keeps it for next season. I dont think he should take it out. JUMP BV TES =75.95

this is barely 1.5 points off of Chen's JUMP BV TES 77.29 at worlds

 

I was just writing a long analysis of next season's strategy!  Here's what I have so far:

 

I know I’m going to sound crazy, but I wonder if there’s any way to get some of these worksheets and layout calculations to TCC.  The intellectual part of me says, obviously they have resources like these, but there’s a little voice that keeps thinking - what if they don’t and we didn’t help when we could have?  Perhaps they’re so busy thinking about other things that they’re not tinkering around with the numbers the way fans do. I keep thinking about how Brian made the comment about adding 12 points to his SP score when people like Shanshani and I, who play with the numbers a lot, immediately knew that Yuzu lost a lot more than 12 points from that pop. I also wonder why they didn’t modify the jump layout if they were trying to scrape every point.

 

Anyway, moving past crazy mode to, well, still kind of crazy mode.  This was supposed to be the year that Yuzu wasn’t skating for points - I think we can safely say that time is long done. So I was thinking about what he could do to get the most points next year, disregarding changing citizenship.

 

1. If he can’t do the 4t on the back end of the axel, then move the axel sequence to the 3f.  I realize that this doesn’t have the same wow factor, but it’s worth 1.73 to 2.27 more points between bv + GOE (assuming he’ll get at least a +3 GOE on both) and seems less risky.  The problem with sequencing the 4t is that it's reducing the value of his third and 4th highest value jump whereas tacking it onto the 3f is a much less severe penalty.  This also means that Yuzu will get the GOE off the second triple axel rather than the 3 flip.

 

2. Drop either the hydroblade or the Ina Bauer or both.  I think judges will compare him to his past self and one of the bullets is “originality”.  Even as a fan, it’s hard not to compare his competition hydroblade to his exhibition one. Sorry, but Haru yo koi ruined me for all other hydroblades.

 

3. Use a fast step sequence.  Nathan has consistently scored higher on his step sequence than Hanyu or Uno in spite of being worse in all aspects.  Nate has also scored consistently higher in his SP step seq than his LP step seq. This is undoubtedly partly because the SP step seq hides his weaknesses better, but  I think judges also tend to equate quickness with mastery. In spite of what the bullets say, the deceleration for Uno and Hanyu is actually working against them.

 

4. Have the 3 combos immediately past the 2 min mark.  The primary influencer of the score seems to be cleanliness so he should do whatever he can to make sure he’s clean.

 

5. Eliminate the difficult entries.  I’ve heard several asshats say that since it isn’t “creative or original” he shouldn’t get credit for the bullet for steps before the jump, in spite of the “OR” between the statements.  The judges who are actually following the guidelines will give him +5 anyway since he’s usually fulfilling 6 bullets, and the rest are looking for any excuse to not give him credit so will find some excuse to find something wrong no matter what.  As stated in point #4, the primary factor in the GOE’s seem to be the quality of the landing. The difficult entries not only make the jump harder to land well but sap his energy for the rest of the program, making later jumps more difficult.

 

6. Cut down on transitions.  Yuzu only got .11 more points on transitions than Nathan.  The judges clearly don’t care about the disparity in quality.   Yuzu should still keep more than Nathan (shouldn’t be hard to do more than waving his arms around while gliding into a jump) since the judges do seem to “rank” skaters with PCS, but he should save as much energy for the jumps as possible - again, see point #4.  Once again, the transitions are sapping his energy, making him more tired for the jumps.

However, wait until half way through the season to cut those transitions and difficult entries.  This is the strategy that Raf has successfully employed the last 2 seasons. Start the season with a fuller program but an easier jump  layout to make sure you can go mostly clean while developing a pcs baseline. The one consistent pattern throughout the years has been that the PCS ceiling gets higher when a skater shows consistency.

 

7. Move the 3 jump combo to his lowest value combo.  The judges consistently give lower GOE to 3 jumps combos vs 2 jump combos.

 

8.  Move the step sequence to the end.  It is one of his Wow! elements and makes his layout more unique and leave the best final impression on the judges.  It also means that he can move the jumps earlier so he has more energy for them.

 

As for Layouts, based on what he is likely able to do:

The highest scoring layout is

4lo

4s

4t

3lz (he's done it in practice so we know he's capable.)

4t/3t*

3f/3a seq* 

3a/e/3s*

This gives a FS base value of 93.35 compared to Chen's BV of 94.39

 

If we make the first combo a 4s/3t, it brings his base up to 93.57, though I don't think it's worth it considering how much less consistent that combo is.  

 

Though we should keep in mind that his base value for this worlds was high enough to win.  The difference in score was entirely the mistakes on those two 4s's.  Then he had the mistake on the step sequence as well (I saw it in real time and gasped when I saw it).  However, he should still plan to upgrade his layout since he should anticipate improvement not only from Chen but who knows what might suddenly show up.

 

eta: btw, if you change Chen's layout to 4lz, 4f, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t, 4t/3t, 3f/e/3s, his BV goes up to 98.55.  Yuzu would either need to take a lead in the short or score about .7 higher in GOE to win.

[makebelieveup]

15 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

I was just writing a long analysis of next season's strategy!  Here's what I have so far:

 

I know I’m going to sound crazy, but I wonder if there’s any way to get some of these worksheets and layout calculations to TCC.  The intellectual part of me says, obviously they have resources like these, but there’s a little voice that keeps thinking - what if they don’t and we didn’t help when we could have?  Perhaps they’re so busy thinking about other things that they’re not tinkering around with the numbers the way fans do. I keep thinking about how Brian made the comment about adding 12 points to his SP score when people like Shanshani and I, who play with the numbers a lot, immediately knew that Yuzu lost a lot more than 12 points from that pop. I also wonder why they didn’t modify the jump layout if they were trying to scrape every point.

 

Anyway, moving past crazy mode to, well, still kind of crazy mode.  This was supposed to be the year that Yuzu wasn’t skating for points - I think we can safely say that time is long done. So I was thinking about what he could do to get the most points next year, disregarding changing citizenship.

 

1. If he can’t do the 4t on the back end of the axel, then move the axel sequence to the 3f.  I realize that this doesn’t have the same wow factor, but it’s worth 1.73 to 2.27 more points between bv + GOE (assuming he’ll get at least a +3 GOE on both) and seems less risky.  The problem with sequencing the 4t is that it's reducing the value of his third and 4th highest value jump whereas tacking it onto the 3f is a much less severe penalty.

  

2. Drop either the hydroblade or the Ina Bauer or both.  I think judges will compare him to his past self and one of the bullets is “originality”.  Even as a fan, it’s hard not to compare his competition hydroblade to his exhibition one. Sorry, but Haru yo koi ruined me for all other hydroblades.

 

3. Use a fast step sequence.  Nathan has consistently scored higher on his step sequence than Hanyu or Uno in spite of being worse in all aspects.  Nate has also scored consistently higher in his SP step seq than his LP step seq. This is undoubtedly partly because the SP step seq hides his weaknesses better, but  I think judges also tend to equate quickness with mastery. In spite of what the bullets say, the deceleration for Uno and Hanyu is actually working against them.

 

4. Have the 3 combos immediately past the 2 min mark.  The primary influencer of the score seems to be cleanliness so he should do whatever he can to make sure he’s clean.

 

5. Eliminate the difficult entries.  I’ve heard several asshats say that since it isn’t “creative or original” he shouldn’t get credit for the bullet for steps before the jump, in spite of the “OR” between the statements.  The judges who are actually following the guidelines will give him +5 anyway since he’s usually fulfilling 6 bullets, and the rest are looking for any excuse to not give him credit so will find some excuse to find something wrong no matter what.  As stated in point #4, the primary factor in the GOE’s seem to be the quality of the landing. The difficult entries not only make the jump harder to land well but sap his energy for the rest of the program, making later jumps more difficult.

 

6. Cut down on transitions.  Yuzu only got .11 more points on transitions than Nathan.  The judges clearly don’t care about the disparity in quality.   Yuzu should still keep more than Nathan (shouldn’t be hard to do more than waving his arms around while gliding into a jump) since the judges do seem to “rank” skaters with PCS, but he should save as much energy for the jumps as possible - again, see point #4.  Once again, the transitions are sapping his energy, making him more tired for the jumps.

However, wait until half way through the season to cut those transitions and difficult entries.  This is the strategy that Raf has successfully employed the last 2 seasons. Start the season with a fuller program but an easier jump  layout to make sure you can go mostly clean while developing a pcs baseline. The one consistent pattern throughout the years has been that the PCS ceiling gets higher when a skater shows consistency.

 

7. Move the 3 jump combo to his lowest value combo.  The judges consistently give lower GOE to 3 jumps combos vs 2 jump combos.

 

8.  Move the step sequence to the end.  It is one of his Wow! elements and makes his layout more unique and leave the best final impression on the judges.  It also means that he can move the jumps earlier so he has more energy for them.

 

As for Layouts, based on what he is likely able to do:

The highest scoring layout is

4lo

4s

4t

3lz (he's done it in practice so we know he's capable.)

4t/3t*

 3f/3a seq* 

3a/e/3s*

This gives a FS base value of 93.35 compared to Chen's BV of 94.39

 

If we make the first combo a 4s/3t, it brings his base up to 93.57, though I don't think it's worth it considering how much less consistent that combo is.  

 

Though we should keep in mind that his base value for this worlds was high enough to win.  The difference in score was entirely the mistakes on those two 4s's.  Then he had the mistake on the step sequence as well (I saw it in real time and gasped when I saw it).  However, he should still plan to upgrade his layout since he should anticipate improvement not only from Chen but who knows what might suddenly show up.

 

eta: btw, if you change Chen's layout to 4lz, 4f, 4s, 3a, 4t/3t, 4t/3t, 3f/e/3s, his BV goes up to 98.55.  Yuzu would either need to take a lead in the short or score about .7 higher in GOE to win.

I like the layout you came up with and it is very realistic he can skate it clean. I think having the 4t3a makes the judges give him somewhat higher GOE. for some reason, I notice judges give higher GOEs for quads that are not executed super well than triples that are done well. So while 3f3aseq might be easier and will gain him a higher bv, the GOE he gets on it might not be very high and we know GOE is contingent upon bv now. I also agree with all the recommended points. I'm not sure how consistent Chen will be with 5 quad layout in a 4 minute program as he did last season. It was an olympic season and he trained a lot more for it. Plus, he is very strong with 4 quads so I don't think he will change his plan so soon (who knows though) unless Yuzu shows he's back with a new quad or is consistently getting his high scores back. I also think he really should drop the signature moves that add nothing for the judges. In the past, Yuzu could afford these moves as an aesthetic factor but now they really took too much energy out for him. I noticed he was really losing so much energy when trying to incorporate these moves and they affected his energy going into the last two spins.

 

7. Move the 3 jump combo to his lowest value combo.  The judges consistently give lower GOE to 3 jumps combos vs 2 jump combos.

Can you explain this? I'm not exactly sure how to move the 3 jump combo. 

 

I also notice Nathan is good at hiding his stsq by using a lot of hand movements rather than actually skating. 

 

I love the idea of sending TCC recommendation. It doesn't hurt to just send a fanmail. Maybe to Brian and Ghislain this time so it has a higher chance to reach them and that they will read. We have 6 months until first competition for next season. I would really hope Yuzu to consider these layouts rather than forcing himself to do the 4lz or 4flip that will result to major injuries and having to sit out for the rest of the season until Worlds. 

[Old Cat Lady]

40 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

I like the layout you came up with and it is very realistic he can skate it clean. I think having the 4t3a makes the judges give him somewhat higher GOE. for some reason, I notice judges give higher GOEs for quads that are not executed super well than triples that are done well. So while 3f3aseq might be easier and will gain him a higher bv, the GOE he gets on it might not be very high and we know GOE is contingent upon bv now. I also agree with all the recommended points. 

 

Actually, the other reason that you want to put the axel sequence on the flip is because this means that the GOE is taken off the axel instead of the flip (I forgot to include that in my original post so I'll edit).  So even with the lower GOE, Yuzu still gains more points because the GOE is taken off the axel which is worth 8 points, as opposed to the flip, which is only worth 5.3 points.  For example, if Yuzu got 3.5 GOE  on the 4t/3t and 3 GOE on 3f/3a seq with all other elements at 0, his TES ends up being 99.08

 

If Yuzu gets 3.5 GOE on 4t/3a seq and a 3 GOE on 3f/3t with all other elements being 0, his TES ends up being 97.82.  Even if Yuzu got 5 GOE on the 4t/3a seq and 3 GOE on the 3f/3t, his TES only ends up being 98.77, still lower than a moderate GOE for the 4t/3t and 3f/3a seq.

 

Quote

 

7. Move the 3 jump combo to his lowest value combo.  The judges consistently give lower GOE to 3 jumps combos vs 2 jump combos.

Can you explain this? I'm not exactly sure how to move the 3 jump combo.

Actually, in this particular layout, the 3 jump combo is already on his lowest value combo.  But sometimes Yuzu plans 4t/e/3s instead of 3a/e/3s.  This is detrimental to his score because the 3 jump combo almost always gets a lower score than a 2 jump combo.  You want the highest GOE to go with the highest BV element.

 

Quote

I love the idea of sending TCC recommendation. It doesn't hurt to just send a fanmail. Maybe to Brian and Ghislain this time so it has a higher chance to reach them and that they will read. 

 

What do you think is the best way to contact them?  

[makebelieveup]

4 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

Actually, the primary reason that you want to put the axel sequence on the flip is because this means that the GOE is taken off the axel instead of the flip (I forgot to include that in my original post so I'll edit).  So even with the lower GOE, Yuzu still gains more points because the GOE is taken off the axel which is worth 8 points, as opposed to the flip, which is only worth 5.3 points.  For example, if Yuzu got 3.5 GOE  on the 4t/3t and 3 GOE on 3f/3a seq with all other elements at 0, his TES ends up being 99.08

  

If Yuzu gets 3.5 GOE on 4t/3a seq and a 3 GOE on 3f/3t with all other elements being 0, his TES ends up being 97.82.  Even if Yuzu got 5 GOE on the 4t/3a seq and 3 GOE on the 3f/3t, his TES only ends up being 98.77, still lower than a moderate GOE for the 4t/3t and 3f/3a seq.

 

Actually, in this particular layout, the 3 jump combo is already on his lowest value combo.  But sometimes Yuzu plans 4t/e/3s instead of 3a/e/3s.  This is detrimental to his score because the 3 jump combo almost always gets a lower score than a 2 jump combo.  You want the highest GOE to go with the highest BV element.

 

  

 What do you think is the best way to contact them?  

 

Ahhh thanks for explaining these points! They're very strategic and I think they make sense. Hmmm, I haven't done it so I'm not exactly sure how. I know fans tend to give stuffs to Ghislain to relay to Yuzu after competitions. That's one way, but that would mean we have to wait until next season, which is all too late. We can write a letter and send to the club Toronto Cricket Skating and Curling Club
141 Wilson Avenue
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
M5M 3A3

 

But I'm not sure if this would reach Brian/Ghislain. Fans send Yuzu stuffs but I don't know if he has time to go through all of them. I'm going to have to do some research or ask around. 

[Dreamer]

I say please send to each coach and to Yuzu(translation version). 

It needs to be titled on the envelope or email to catch attention. I don't know... Winning strategies: approach to program composition 😊

[Neenah]

Yuzu will not compromise his skating by following Raf's strategy. That is not him and the opposite of his own strategy. Also, I would advice against sending these analysis to him or his team as it may not be received well. Yuzuru himself is really good at analysing his and his opponents scores and strategy and his team worked great with him so far. It is possible that sending them suggestion for what we think is best layout or strategy may be taken as a lack of trust and faith in their ability to put up their own. It is okay if we discuss it between ourselves and he may actually know that we do and reads it, but he asked us to trust him and we should do that. It is his skating, his future, his health, and his vision. Let him decide what to do without us interfering.

[airi]

Sorry, I hope you're not serious about actually sending something? Do you really think you're more capable of suggesting the best for Yuzu than himself and his team, or that he's not capable of coming to some of these conclusions (and probably ignoring them, because, still, king of extra)? It's ok to diacuss, but actually suggesting something to them is at least very strange...

[makebelieveup]

6 hours ago, Neenah said:

Yuzu will not compromise his skating by following Raf's strategy. That is not him and the opposite of his own strategy. Also, I would advice against sending these analysis to him or his team as it may not be received well. Yuzuru himself is really good at analysing his and his opponents scores and strategy and his team worked great with him so far. It is possible that sending them suggestion for what we think is best layout or strategy may be taken as a lack of trust and faith in their ability to put up their own. It is okay if we discuss it between ourselves and he may actually know that we do and reads it, but he asked us to trust him and we should do that. It is his skating, his future, his health, and his vision. Let him decide what to do without us interfering.

 

55 minutes ago, airi said:

Sorry, I hope you're not serious about actually sending something? Do you really think you're more capable of suggesting the best for Yuzu than himself and his team, or that he's not capable of coming to some of these conclusions (and probably ignoring them, because, still, king of extra)? It's ok to diacuss, but actually suggesting something to them is at least very strange...

If this idea offended you both or anyone else who read it by anyway, I do apologize. hmm I understand where you both are coming from and I appreciate the advices, really. Also, yes I was serious about the idea of sending the team something and of course it wouldnt be anything like "hey you guys need to do this and this and this because I think it is the best way." but I do understand the idea of trying to advise the team could come across strange, arrogant, even rude...regardless. But honestly, from my personal point of view, I don't see the harm in this attempt. I never thought it means I am more capable than Yuzu or his team. Suggesting does not assume someone else doesn't know, it is that I don't know what they know and giving them my input on what I know. Also, I will not try to represent Planet if I did send him a letter. So if he or anyone finds it strange, it would be between me and whomever I am sending to, and I will hold full accountable for my own action. I actually find if we keep on trying to think over and over about what Yuzu and his team would think, it will lead to passivity. Just like how in the cheer project thread, many opposed the idea of sending him this or that and in the end, nothing gets done. There is no guarantee that the team will take any of this seriously but there is no hurt in trying. But anyway, I did see how difficult it is to reach team TCC so I dont think I will attempt.  

[Old Cat Lady]

I don't actually believe that Yuzuru would water down his choreography for strategy and wouldn't dare suggest most of the things I listed. It was originally just meant to be an analysis of judging patterns but I prematurely posted without a full explanation since the topic came back up.

 

However, judging by things they've said, I do genuinely wonder if they've fully analyzed how the system works.  Yuzu seemed (positively) surprised by his score and previous SP scores. He was also surprised by Shoma's SP score (though he might not have seen the whole program). Brian got the number wrong when he was talking about the points lost in the SP.  The jump layout isn't designed to maximize scores. Yuzu said he couldn't have won even with a clean program - and that's just plain not true.  Even in the old system, he was often very surprised by scores.

 

Now, the 4t/3a might have just been a pride thing.  But even disregarding the 3f/3a option since he's probably never practiced it, his layout is still not maximized for score.  It's pretty clear that he threw out the whole "I don't care about points" thing after Autumn classic but he still kept a layout that had higher BV but lower potential points.  I don't doubt that the team has spent hours looking at the protocols, but the numbers on the sheets by themselves don't tell you much.