General Skating Chat

[Xen]

10 minutes ago, anyanee said:

That delay single axel on Notte Stella might be Hanyu axel?

Nah, that's just a normal delayed axel- a lot of the men from the 80's and early 90's all did it in exhibition. I wonder if he's thinking of leaving his mark via spins instead, since he said he wanted to experiment with spin variations...though right now it looks like the closest might be the Hanyu lunge. 

[bubbletea0712]

1 minute ago, Xen said:

Nah, that's just a normal delayed axel- a lot of the men from the 80's and early 90's all did it in exhibition. I wonder if he's thinking of leaving his mark via spins instead, since he said he wanted to experiment with spin variations...though right now it looks like the closest might be the Hanyu lunge. 

How I forget the "Hanyu Lunge" hahahaha

[kaeryth]

6 minutes ago, Xen said:

Nah, that's just a normal delayed axel- a lot of the men from the 80's and early 90's all did it in exhibition. I wonder if he's thinking of leaving his mark via spins instead, since he said he wanted to experiment with spin variations...though right now it looks like the closest might be the Hanyu lunge. 

 

This might be because he didn't receive the highest mark for spins last season and he is very salty about it

[xeyra]

A quick question to @xeyra : a couple rink pals were discussing the format changes for men coming up, and the recent clarification of ISU judging rules. A couple of the male rink mats think that the format change would actually help Yuzuru. The female rink mates felt the opposite. And the male rink mates also suspect some of the rules re-inforcements/clarification (vague as ISU wording is), is also able to help Yuzuru. So, has there been a men who got perfect 10's in PCS with a major flaw in their program in the 16/17 season? I don't think Zuzu got the benefit, but maybe some of the guys with high pcs and not so clean programs managed it?  And what do you think about the change in format as it pertains to Zuzu after Pyeongchang?  

 

To be honest, the only guys who got 10s with faulty performances were the uncles and Yuzu. @kaeryth, I think, did a compilation in the general thread about the 10s given in PCS for the men last season and what was noticed is that the 10s in faulty performances hardly ever mattered for Yuzu because he got mostly one 10 per category and thus it was the grade dropped from the average. Also 10s were mostly given for Interpretation of the music, more so than other categories in PCS, which I think is the more subjective of the components. I think Javi may have benefited from 10s from faulty performances a tad more, but that mostly happens at Europeans and you know he's got no competition there to make it matter. So I'm not sure it'll matter in the end; judges might just give 9.75 instead and have one of those dropped from the average. So I'm not particularly sure how this will affect anyone but at least people at GS will be happy not to see 10s for interpretation of the music when Yuzu doesn't land his 4Lo properly in his SP. 

 

I'm slightly more concerned about the wording for the SP solo jump, because I don't think it's clarifying enough for the judges on what it entails (as in, what is a creative movements into the solo jump anyway?). Will we see more or less disparity in SP solo jumps scores? Similarly, I don't think they clarify what counts as a major error in terms of scoring those 10s in PCS. Yuzu's 4Lo at GPF 2016 is a major error? Even though he just flailed at the landing? Does anything worth negative GOE count as a serious error? These are the questions that I have, and I guess we'll see how it goes next season.

 

As for after Pyeongchang, if they increase the GOE from -3 +3 to -5 +5, it'll depend on what the criteria will be for those scores but in a perfect world, it should allow more differentiation between jump quality. If we'd been in a post GPF 2015 world, I'd say it would benefit Yuzu since the prospective rules were thought of with his WR breaking in mind, but Yuzu lost a bit of that momentum when he lost Worlds in 2016, so he's trying to work back to it again. Winning Worlds 2017 should help, but it'll also depend on what he brings to the table next season. But the higher GOE range can also be problematic if judges just give it away arbitrarily. 

 

As for the 30s less and one less jumping pass change to the FS, well, what can happen when you have 30s less eating at your stamina, I wonder. 

 

So do any of the new rules, for next season or the one beyond, benefit Yuzu? I don't know, we'll have to see. I don't think it'll benefit him any less than the previous rules did. At least we know he's safe from negative GOE on his solo SP jump due to lack of steps. He just better not pop it. 

[Xen]

15 minutes ago, kaeryth said:

 

This might be because he didn't receive the highest mark for spins last season and he is very salty about it

His salt can feed the world....

13 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

whole post

1) Not sure what GS will say if it impacts PChiddy...at least the most vocal support tends to come from that corner, especially when compulsory figures gets mentioned (what's the obsession with that? Also, what's with PChiddy's deep edges and his not so stellar edge jumps? The two do not compute).

2) I would imagine the major errors are a. falls (more than 1 perhaps); b. missing the combo jump (though I don't think Yuzu got a 10 in pcs?). The first one does mess up the music's flow, so it would make sense, the second one is already heavily peanlized though. 

3) In agreement on that

4) I actually thought Yuzu would adapt to that better, since he has quicker entry for his jumps versus the other men. It does create problems if you want to add steps in front of jumps since that eats at both stamina and time, but Yuzuru can probably manage. Not so sure of the other guys. So if this holds, then he might be the only one with the obvious +GOE for steps preceeding jumps. Though with only 7 jumps, the jump-that-shall-not-be-named is coming? 

[xeyra]

49 minutes ago, Xen said:

His salt can feed the world....

1) Not sure what GS will say if it impacts PChiddy...at least the most vocal support tends to come from that corner, especially when compulsory figures gets mentioned (what's the obsession with that? Also, what's with PChiddy's deep edges and his not so stellar edge jumps? The two do not compute).

 

 

I'll try to find the table I created out of the data; I think I did it at work so it's in that computer. But 10s in PCS for a performance with errors doesn't really impact on PCS much, since it's usually a solo one in a category that gets thrown out. I guess even the thought of a single 10 in interpretation of the music for an otherwise great performance with a stepout is a crime to some, so I'm sure they'd judge Patrick's PCS by the same standards. The impact of 10s in faulty performances is overstated, anyway. Mostly, 10s are given to perfect performances, though even then people complain that 'is this what a 10 amounts to?' so they'd never give 10s to anyone anyway (except maybe PChiddy).

[AsteroidB-612]

1 hour ago, fluffypooh said:

Now I really want they name a move after Yuzu 

I want them to name the back counter entry into triple axel after him! I mean...no one else is really doing it right? It's super difficult and it's quite his signature move!(he does it every season since 2011 I think?)

[xeyra]

I wonder if I should do a version of the BV table with some alternative SP layouts too. I'm almost positive Boyang will definitely change something in his SP if he's not repeating Spiderman. I'm not yet sure if Patrick will use the 4F he is training in the SP too or Javi the 4Lo. I suspect no, because it's such an added risk to do so in the SP, in Olympic season; we've seen with Yuzu how trouble with the SP can put you behind, so safer routes in the SP might be chosen by everyone. I suspect Shoma also saw the added strain of trying to do a 4Lo // 4F3T 3A layout in his SP, so he's going with the old layout, only backloading the 4T3T as well instead.

 

I wonder, aside from Shoma and Yuzu, if anyone else might risk a backloaded combo in the SP next season. Nathan? Boyang? The inability to make up for a lost combo in the SP if it's your second jump tends to dissuade a lot of people from doing so.

[Xen]

6 minutes ago, xeyra said:

I wonder if I should do a version of the BV table with some alternative SP layouts too. I'm almost positive Boyang will definitely change something in his SP if he's not repeating Spiderman. I'm not yet sure if Patrick will use the 4F he is training in the SP too or Javi the 4Lo. I suspect no, because it's such an added risk to do so in the SP, in Olympic season; we've seen with Yuzu how trouble with the SP can put you behind, so safer routes in the SP might be chosen by everyone. I suspect Shoma also saw the added strain of trying to do a 4Lo // 4F3T 3A layout in his SP, so he's going with the old layout, only backloading the 4T3T as well instead.

 

I wonder, aside from Shoma and Yuzu, if anyone else might risk a backloaded combo in the SP next season. Nathan? Boyang? The inability to make up for a lost combo in the SP if it's your second jump tends to dissuade a lot of people from doing so.

I would bet on Boyang, he's got far less to lose than Nathan. Boyang is a total space cadet. One of my rinkmates follow his Weibo, so I'm sorely tempted to poke him indirectly about whether or not he has a quad flip (that's the only one he hasn't done right?).  But possibly move from this "4Lz3T 3A // 4T" to  4Lz //3A 4T-3T ( or 4L-3T)? 

 

I think all the new jumps will be in the FS, because the schedule for the men's won't give the guys a good rest if they over-extend themselves. The key is to ensure their own SP scores stay high enough and close enough to the leader, then it's just a question of who handles the pressure of the long program better. 

33 minutes ago, AsteroidB-612 said:

I want them to name the back counter entry into triple axel after him! I mean...no one else is really doing it right? It's super difficult and it's quite his signature move!(he does it every season since 2011 I think?)

You mean "doing a Yuzuru"? Actually I think he would adapt to the 4 minute system better than other guys due to his difficult and super quick entries. He's been at it for years, other guys not so long, so they might be forced to give up the steps before jumps. Then we need to drag all the judges to a super secret training site and force them to learn how to do a back counter on ice so they actually appreciate the difficulty. I'm still salty about his GOE scores for his counter -3A.

[xeyra]

As promised, the 10s in PCS tables:

 

As you can see, outside of the two 10s in Yuzu's SP at NHK 2016, which would sort of impact his PCS in IN by a couple decimals, most 10s in faulty performances were solo 10s, which are dismissed from the scoring. For a question of principle, I understand being salty at 10s, but scoring wise, they have little impact. Not being able to receive 10s shouldn't bring much change (and the wording is not even prohibiting 10s in performances with major errors, just 'suggesting' they're not given). 

 

And for comparison, from the 2015-2016 season:

 

You see a lot more use of 10s in this season with Javi, though. 

[xeyra]

39 minutes ago, Xen said:

I would bet on Boyang, he's got far less to lose than Nathan. Boyang is a total space cadet. One of my rinkmates follow his Weibo, so I'm sorely tempted to poke him indirectly about whether or not he has a quad flip (that's the only one he hasn't done right?).  But possibly move from this "4Lz3T 3A // 4T" to  4Lz //3A 4T-3T ( or 4L-3T)? 

 

I think all the new jumps will be in the FS, because the schedule for the men's won't give the guys a good rest if they over-extend themselves. The key is to ensure their own SP scores stay high enough and close enough to the leader, then it's just a question of who handles the pressure of the long program better. 

 

4Lz // 3A 4T-3T seems quite doable for Boyang, though he might place the 4T3T before the 3A in that case. I also suspect Nathan might backload his 4F even if he doesn't backload the combo, so either 4Lz3T 3A // 4F or 4Lz3T // 3A 4F. There's really no reason why he can't since the SP is basically as long as the first half of a FS. 

 

I'm not sure Boyang is working on a 4F too. I think he sometimes has edge issues on his 3F, so it's a bit like Yuzu trying to do the 4F. Has there been rumors out of Weibo about Boyang and the 4F, though? I'm not actually considering that jump in any of my possible layouts but if he adds it too......... oh my. 

 

I calculated a bunch of options here, actually, for only for the SP and you can already see the myriad possibilities. 

 

Just for fun, here are the numbers with the changed SPs for Nathan and Boyang.

 

SKATER	SP BV	LAYOUT	FS BV	LAYOUT*	TOTAL BV
CHEN	54.38	4Lz3T 3A // 4F	117.10	4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz	171.48
			122.37	4Lz3T 4Lo 4F2T 4Lz // 4F 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A	176.75
JIN	52.61	4Lz // 4T3T 3A	110.78	4Lz3T 4S 4Lo // 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	163.39
			114.10	4Lz3T 4Lo 4Lz // 4T2T 4S 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	166.71

 

Of course, all these BV calculations assume level 4 in everything and with these many quads, I wonder if skaters won't be too tired to get their levels properly. 

 

And once more into the math and GOE/PCS:

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS (from previous season)	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	154.44	177.68	332.12	Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout
CHEN	171.48	151.83	323.31	Alt. SP + 6-quad layout
	176.75	151.83	328.58	Alt. SP + 7-quad layout
JIN	163.39	150.02	313.41	Alt. SP + 5-quad layout
	166.71	150.02	316.73	Alt. SP + 5-quad layout

 

Note: Please do take all this math with a huge grain of salt because applying last season's GOEs/PCS to prospective layouts for the coming season is sketchy at best. 

[Xen]

28 minutes ago, xeyra said:

As promised, the 10s in PCS tables:

 

As you can see, outside of the two 10s in Yuzu's SP at NHK 2016, which would sort of impact his PCS in IN by a couple decimals, most 10s in faulty performances were solo 10s, which are dismissed from the scoring. For a question of principle, I understand being salty at 10s, but scoring wise, they have little impact. Not being able to receive 10s shouldn't bring much change (and the wording is not even prohibiting 10s in performances with major errors, just 'suggesting' they're not given). 

 

And for comparison, from the 2015-2016 season:

 

You see a lot more use of 10s in this season with Javi, though. 

It seems judges do less shennanigans on the PCS scores when Worlds and GPF roll around. But the GOE is another thing. I feel somewhat relieved that even if they tighten up the PCS scores, Yuzu won't be that impacted, since his PCS scores haven't received the benefit of the doubt from a practical perspective. I'm actually a bit surprised that Patrick didn't have many 10's. 

[xeyra]

3 minutes ago, Xen said:

It seems judges do less shennanigans on the PCS scores when Worlds and GPF roll around. But the GOE is another thing. I feel somewhat relieved that even if they tighten up the PCS scores, Yuzu won't be that impacted, since his PCS scores haven't received the benefit of the doubt from a practical perspective. I'm actually a bit surprised that Patrick didn't have many 10's. 

 

Patrick tends to be a bit inconsistent but when he's good, like at 4CC 2016 or in his SP at GPF 2016 or Worlds 2017, I did expect more 10s. This is where, I think, the idea we've had of PCS being tied to your TES and your BV gains credence. Javi's SP at Worlds was spectacular but that Patrick got less 10s than Javi did can possibly be tied to the fact he didn't do 2 quads. 

[xeyra]

11 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

Patrick tends to be a bit inconsistent but when he's good, like at 4CC 2016 or in his SP at GPF 2016 or Worlds 2017, I did expect more 10s. This is where, I think, the idea we've had of PCS being tied to your TES and your BV gains credence. Javi's SP at Worlds was spectacular but that Patrick got less 10s than Javi did can possibly be tied to the fact he didn't do 2 quads. 

 

Or that Javi skated last. That did count too, actually. Especially after back to back good SPs, which is basically how Yuzu reached 330 at GPF 2015. Momentum does build from skater to skater and judges get more generous as they go along if people are having good performances. 

[Lunna]

2 часа назад, yuzuangel сказал:

If Nathan lands 2+7 quads with 3 quad lutzes and 2 quad flips, and Yuzu has a 4-quad layout (even with the 4Lz), it might be a tossup.

But let's not forget that with 4 different quads Yuzu can have 2 combos with triples and 2 3As, when Nathan with 6 quads had 1 3A at Worlds, so adding 5th quad will not add too much BV for Yuzu.

 

2 часа назад, xeyra сказал:

As for the 30s less and one less jumping pass change to the FS, well, what can happen when you have 30s less eating at your stamina, I wonder. 

 

So do any of the new rules, for next season or the one beyond, benefit Yuzu?

Surely only time will tell. But it seems like there will be less breaks/pauses in FS cuz FS will be 30 sec shorter but they will exclude only 1 jump which seems to take less time then 30 sec