General Skating Chat

[hoodie axel]

1 hour ago, yuzuangel said:

Which I commend them for, tbh, because at least we know when Yuzu wins, he wins fair and square. Winning Worlds/Olys from extremely controversial judging is something skaters will have to carry forever....

But Yuzuru has never needed the judges' help when he has won either. Even if the Japanese judges had overscored him and underscored the others in the events that he's won, it doesn't really matter. Almost no skater who wins does it because the one judge from their country who might be judging them overscored them and underscored the others.

 

Maybe someone can analyze, but I feel like a single judge doing something like this doesn't affect anything, the biases cancel out. Placements are almost never decided by margins that small. It's when multiple judges collude that it becomes a huge problem (like in Ice Dance). I know that Boyang finished ahead of Nathan by 0.44, but was this literally because of the one judge? And the variables in favour of Nathan wouldn't be canceled out anyway. What would happen if the US and Chinese judges were tossed for both, and then the regular scoring system (so 7 judges, and then toss out the highest and the lowest) were applied to them?

 

The tech calls, and judge collusion, and the faulty application of guidelines and scoring on a global level matters far more.

 

It's why this doesn't sit as any measure they've taken to prevent anything to me currently. The Chinese judges alone can actually never do anything to get their skaters the win -- no single judge can, unless the margin of victory is ridiculously small, and maybe not even then. This just seems like targeting to me. But if someone has any analysis, maybe they can present it?

[shanshani]

I agree that a single judge won't really be able to change competition outcomes except in the most marginal of cases. But I think it's helpful to address biased judging anyway, because it will increase the level of transparency and honesty in the sport.

Speaking of judging bias, I finished my nationalistic bias in judging project. This took waayyy too much time. I used to have other hobbies.

Results can be found here.

 

Write-up here or at the other place, you know which. Tl;dr: so much biased judging everywhere from everyone.

Edit: actually, I'll just post abbreviated results here for the lazy.

Wall of shame - Bias highly probable to virtually certain (p < 0.01)

Weiguang Chen (China) - PD: 10.1, p < 0.00001
Anna Kantor (Israel) - PD: 9.87, p < 0.00001
Peggy Graham (USA) - PD: 9.38, p < 0.00001
Lorrie Parker (USA) - PD: 5.12, p = 0.000024
Saodat Numanova (Uzbekistan) - PD: 5.76, p = 0.00010
Olga Kozhemiakina (Russia) - PD: 5.19, p = 0.00020
Tatiana Sharkina (Russia) - PD: 4.56, p = 0.000275
Jeff Lukasik (Canada) - PD: 9.56, p = 0.00082
Albert Zaydman (Israel) - PD: 4.83, p = 0.0043
Sakae Yamamoto (Japan) - PD: 4.47, p = 0.0044

Wall of probable shame - Bias quite likely (0.01 < p < 0.05)

 

Masako Kubota (Japan) - PD: 3.67, p = 0.012
Daniel Delfa (Spain) - PD: 5.86, p = 0.012
Yuri Guskov (Kazakhstan) - PD: 4.36, p = 0.027
Janice Hunter (Canada) - PD: 3.63, p = 0.029
Igor Obraztsov (Russia) - PD: 3.04, p = 0.038
Nobuhiko Yoshioka (Japan) - PD: 4.74, p = 0.046

Wall of honor-or-at-least-no-shame-yet - No strong evidence of bias (p > 0.05)

Na Young Ahn (South Korea) - PD: 2.48, p = 0.13
Wendy Enzmann (USA) - PD: 1.75, p = 0.17
Sung Hee Koh (South Korea) - PD: 1.5, p = 0.20
Agita Abele (Latvia) - PD: 1.4, p = 0.22

[hoodie axel]

2 hours ago, shanshani said:

But I think it's helpful to address biased judging anyway, because it will increase the level of transparency and honesty in the sport.

Oh, it's helpful. My point was simply what I wrote in the last paragraph -- it's targeting, not an actual goodwill effort to fix the judging. If they had suspended more, it might seem like it, but them firing the Chinese judges only despite all these other ones being biased (and there's still the point of the Pairs judge going before Parker), it's almost certainly them targeting the Chinese judges before 2022.

[WinForPooh]

Will we see a 3A sequence from him? Wouldn't it be something if we did! 

 

But could somebody tell me, if he does two 3As with one in SEQ, does the other one have to be in combo? I've never thought of that. For the at least one in combo rule, where do jump sequences fit in?

[shanshani]

Not sure. If I remember the wording of the jump repetition rule correctly, one of the jumps has to be in combination, therefore if he wanted to do a 3A sequence, his other 3A would have to be in combination. I think that's more optimal for him anyway (he should backload his reliable 3A combination in order to maximize backloading points while still minimizing risk), plus his 3As are usually all in combination in his LP, so either way I'd expect his other 3A to be in combination if he decides to do a 3A sequence.

[Coquelicot]

 

[shanshani]

Oh, also, Olys scores if Judges Chen and Parker's scores are dropped and the rest averaged:

Free Skate
Nathan: 215.08 -> 214.15
Yuzu: 206.17 -> 206.65
Shoma: 202.73 -> 203.61
Javi: 197.66 -> 198.6
Boyang: 194.45 -> 193.79
Vincent: 192.16 -> 191.40

SP (Parker did not judge the SP)
Yuzu: 111.68 -> 111.52
Javi: 107.58 -> 107.96
Shoma: 104.17 -> 104.49
Boyang: 103.32 -> 102.09
Nathan: 82.27 -> 82.41
Vincent: 84.53 -> 84.32
 

Totals
Yuzu: 317.85 -> 318.17
Shoma: 306.9 -> 308.10
Javi: 305.24 -> 306.56

Nathan: 297.35 -> 296.56 (moves from 5th to 4th)
Boyang: 297.77 -> 295.88 (moves from 4th to 5th)
Vincent: 276.69 -> 275.72
 

As you can see, no podium changes, though Nathan and Boyang do swap places right beneath it. Interestingly, Chen doesn't seem to under-score Yuzu and Nathan the way she under-scores Shoma and Javi. Imo, the top 6 order should have been: Yuzu, Javi, Shoma, Boyang, Nathan, Vincent, but divergences between the actual order, the order minus Parker and Chen, and the ideal order have to do with other judging issues.

[WinForPooh]

39 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Not sure. If I remember the wording of the jump repetition rule correctly, one of the jumps has to be in combination, therefore if he wanted to do a 3A sequence, his other 3A would have to be in combination. I think that's more optimal for him anyway (he should backload his reliable 3A combination in order to maximize backloading points while still minimizing risk), plus his 3As are usually all in combination in his LP, so either way I'd expect his other 3A to be in combination if he decides to do a 3A sequence.

That's what I remember, too.

 

But wait, if it's seven jumping passes with three combos allowed, does that mean that if he has a sequence he can have three more combos? Or is it seven jumping passes with three seq/combos, including one three jump pass?

 

I should just look at ladies' layouts with 2A sequences and see how many combos they had in those skates. 

 

I would've paid more attention to sequences in the rules if I'd known Yuzu might be pulling a 3A sequence.  I just realised I dunno how they'll affect his layouts at all.

[shanshani]

The Seq replaces a combo, at least going off Gabby Daleman's protocols. 3Lz3ASeq (or 3F3ASeq) is still worth more than 3A2T in terms of BV--the only issue is what kind of GOEs he'd be able to get on it vs 3A2T. (And if he goes for the 3F variant it would be a good way to keep all 6 types of jumps without sacrificing much BV.)

[WinForPooh]

2 minutes ago, shanshani said:

The Seq replaces a combo, at least going off Gabby Daleman's protocols. 3Lz3ASeq (or 3F3ASeq) is still worth more than 3A2T in terms of BV--the only issue is what kind of GOEs he'd be able to get on it vs 3A2T. (And if he goes for the 3F variant it would be a good way to keep all 6 types of jumps without sacrificing much BV.)

I suddenly really want to see the 3F-3A seq. I don't really see him doing 3F as the latter part of a combo so this would be a good way, and it would put both his out of nowhere jumps together.

 

I was going to go and check Gabby's protocols, too. Thank you, you saved me the trouble!  

[Xen]

23 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Oh, also, Olys scores if Judges Chen and Parker's scores are dropped and the rest averaged:

Free Skate
Nathan: 215.08 -> 214.15
Yuzu: 206.17 -> 206.65
Shoma: 202.73 -> 203.61
Javi: 197.66 -> 198.6
Boyang: 194.45 -> 193.79
Vincent: 192.16 -> 191.40

SP (Parker did not judge the SP)
Yuzu: 111.68 -> 111.52
Javi: 107.58 -> 107.96
Shoma: 104.17 -> 104.49
Boyang: 103.32 -> 102.09
Nathan: 82.27 -> 82.41
Vincent: 84.53 -> 84.32
 

Totals
Yuzu: 317.85 -> 318.17
Shoma: 306.9 -> 308.10
Javi: 305.24 -> 306.56

Nathan: 297.35 -> 296.56 (moves from 5th to 4th)
Boyang: 297.77 -> 295.88 (moves from 4th to 5th)
Vincent: 276.69 -> 275.72
 

As you can see, no podium changes, though Nathan and Boyang do swap places right beneath it. Interestingly, Chen doesn't seem to under-score Yuzu and Nathan the way she under-scores Shoma and Javi. Imo, the top 6 order should have been: Yuzu, Javi, Shoma, Boyang, Nathan, Vincent, but divergences between the actual order, the order minus Parker and Chen, and the ideal order have to do with other judging issues.

Yes...there were some suspicions in Chinese FS baidu bars that the real reason Chen was stupid, wasn't just because she overmarked Boyang, but she undermarked Shoma and Javi too far. If she marked Shoma and Javi closer to the other judges, she should remain more within the corridor no? She marked them so far down, that her scores would have been dropped, and had minimal impact on the final order. It might not have prevented the crackdown, but it would not be as egregious a score difference as it turned out.

[shanshani]

31 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

I suddenly really want to see the 3F-3A seq. I don't really see him doing 3F as the latter part of a combo so this would be a good way, and it would put both his out of nowhere jumps together.

 

I was going to go and check Gabby's protocols, too. Thank you, you saved me the trouble!  

 

Yeah, 3F3ASeq would be a good way to avoid having to give up jumping the flip altogether, possible edge issues on a half loop combo, and learning 4F while still maximizing BV.

Actually, in general skaters are better off trying to replace the 2T combo with a triple than they are repeating 3A. It takes a GOE of 4 for 3A2T to be superior to 3Lz3T (assuming same GOE for both combos)--that's a GOE that only Yuzu, maaaybe, can reliably achieve. Hence why I have Nathan jumping 3Lz3T instead of another 3A combo--his 3As aren't very good and he'll almost certainly be better off with 3Lz3T instead, as would most skaters. The only wrinkle is that judges seem more generous with GOEs on harder jumps, so it might be easier to get high GOEs with 3A2T than 3Lz3T, assuming someone who is equally competent at both.

However, Yuzu has the option of replacing 2T with...3A. The sequence will take a BV hit for being a sequence, but overall, he comes out ahead by a few points in BV for doing a 3A seq rather than a 2T. Again, the only wrinkle is GOE judging. If judges are stingier on GOEs for sequences than they are for 3A2T, then it might not be worth it. Still, it takes a pretty significant difference in GOE for 3A2T to be better than 3Lz3Aseq or 3F3Aseq

[WinForPooh]

4 minutes ago, shanshani said:

 

Yeah, 3F3ASeq would be a good way to avoid having to give up jumping the flip altogether, possible edge issues on a half loop combo, and learning 4F while still maximizing BV.

Actually, in general skaters are better off trying to replace the 2T combo with a triple than they are repeating 3A. It takes a GOE of 4 for 3A2T to be superior to 3Lz3T (assuming same GOE for both combos)--that's a GOE that only Yuzu, maaaybe, can reliably achieve. Hence why I have Nathan jumping 3Lz3T instead of another 3A combo--his 3As aren't very good and he'll almost certainly be better off with 3Lz3T instead, as would most skaters. The only wrinkle is that judges seem more generous with GOEs on harder jumps, so it might be easier to get high GOEs with 3A2T than 3Lz3T, assuming someone who is equally competent at both.

However, Yuzu has the option of replacing 2T with...3A. The sequence will take a BV hit for being a sequence, but overall, he comes out ahead by a few points in BV for doing a 3A seq rather than a 2T. Again, the only wrinkle is GOE judging. If judges are stingier on GOEs for sequences than they are for 3A2T, then it might not be worth it. Still, it takes a pretty significant difference in GOE for 3A2T to be better than 3Lz3Aseq or 3F3Aseq

I'm really beginning to see why a Lo combo might be something worth training.  The seq base value cutting business is bullshit. Why. 

[shanshani]

Well, if it makes you feel better, both 3Lz3ASeq and 3F3ASeq have higher BV than 3Lz3Lo/3F3Lo. Also, I'm not 100% sure about this, but the GOEs for the sequence *should* be calculated off the full base value of the 3A? If the GOE rules for sequences follow the +REP rules (calculate based on the original value of the jump) rather than the underrotation/edge call rules (calculate off the reduced BV of the jump), then 3A sequences also have significantly higher potential for GOE points than 3Lo/3T combos do (assuming judges don't take off points in GOE for being a sequence).

 

Since Lze and Lz< are separate entries in the new SOV table from Lz, but +SEQ is not, it seems more likely that +SEQ GOE calculation rules follow +REP rules.

Also, I think of all active male skaters, only Yuzu is likely to have a good enough 3A to take advantage of this quirk of BV math. Hence...maybe him practicing 3A sequences isn't just him showing off.

[Xen]

12 minutes ago, shanshani said:

Well, if it makes you feel better, both 3Lz3ASeq and 3F3ASeq have higher BV than 3Lz3Lo/3F3Lo. Also, I'm not 100% sure about this, but the GOEs for the sequence *should* be calculated off the full base value of the 3A? If the GOE rules for sequences follow the +REP rules (calculate based on the original value of the jump) rather than the underrotation/edge call rules (calculate off the reduced BV of the jump), then 3A sequences also have significantly higher potential for GOE points than 3Lo/3T combos do (assuming judges don't take off points in GOE for being a sequence).

 

Since Lze and Lz< are separate entries in the new SOV table from Lz, but +SEQ is not, it seems more likely that +SEQ GOE calculation rules follow +REP rules.

Also, I think of all active male skaters, only Yuzu is likely to have a good enough 3A to take advantage of this quirk of BV math. Hence...maybe him practicing 3A sequences isn't just him showing off.

Well if he does it, next season there will be a new emergency conference about the SEQ GOE values of 3As. XD