General Skating Chat

[Murieleirum]

12 hours ago, kaumudi said:

Seems like Shoma tried 4Lz (but popped into 2Lz) in his sp at DOI.

 

https://twitter.com/figureskate_3a/status/883932498446635008

 

(Not very much sure about his strategy. Will he dare to run the risk of being called for the sake of BV? Or has he corrected his edges already through the camp in Canada? He practiced 4Lz during WTT gala practice iirc, but seeing the video I didn't feel he would land it anytime soon.)

 

Do I sound like an asshole if I say "I hope he risks it so his jumps' mistakes will be so obvious, they will have to call him out"? 

I mean, I hope the best for everyone. But. The best for Shoma, in my opinion, is if someone made him correct his technique.

Plus, isn't this similar to the 4Salchow, when he took it out of the layout because he admitted he didn't feel sure about it? 

[yana]

13 hours ago, kaumudi said:

Seems like Shoma tried 4Lz (but popped into 2Lz) in his sp at DOI.

 

https://twitter.com/figureskate_3a/status/883932498446635008

 

(Not very much sure about his strategy. Will he dare to run the risk of being called for the sake of BV? Or has he corrected his edges already through the camp in Canada? He practiced 4Lz during WTT gala practice iirc, but seeing the video I didn't feel he would land it anytime soon.)

 

Shoma do 4Lz at Faoi too right? Because I think I saw Jp tweet said Shoma edge for his 4Lz are correct. But because I just saw only one tweet who said it, so I'm not quite believe it until I saw.

[Murieleirum]

1 hour ago, yana said:

 

Shoma do 4Lz at Faoi too right? Because I think I saw Jp tweet said Shoma edge for his 4Lz are correct. But because I just saw only one tweet who said it, so I'm not quite believe it until I saw.

 

He didn't land any 4Lz at Faoi yet, I'm quite positive...

[yana]

17 minutes ago, Murieleirum said:

 

He didn't land any 4Lz at Faoi yet, I'm quite positive...

At Faoi rehearsal. Some fans can watch them. That's why I said I never believe it until we got prove.

[Murieleirum]

31 minutes ago, yana said:

At Faoi rehearsal. Some fans can watch them. That's why I said I never believe it until we got prove.

 

Aaah, maybe then I definitely missed those tweets. I can believe he landed the 4Lutz. Correct edge, tho, that's something else... hard to see without slow-mo rewind, even for some FS experts! 

[xeyra]

Taking this away from the General thread and posting some speculative BV totals. Please note all this BV speculation doesn't take into account possible changes to SP as well. In another post, I'll do some speculative math as well. 

 

SKATER	SP BV	LAYOUT	FS BV	LAYOUT*	TOTAL BV
CHEN	53.15	4Lz3T 4F // 3A	115.74	4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz	168.89
			117.10	4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz	170.25
			122.04	4Lz3T 4F 4F2T 4Lz // 4Lo 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A	175.19
			122.37	4Lz3T 4Lo 4F2T 4Lz // 4F 4S 4T2T2Lo 3A	175.52
UNO	51.31	4F // 4T3T 3A	107.34	4Lo 4F 3Lz // 3A3T 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	158.65
			109.59	4Lo 4S 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	160.90
			111.79	4Lo 4S 3A3T // 4F 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	163.10
			112.69	4Lz 4Lo 3A3T // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	164.00
			113.12	4Lz 4Lo 3A // 4F2T 4T3T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	164.43
			114.94	4Lz 4Lo 4F // 4F2T 3A3T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S	166.25
			119.63	4Lz 4Lo 4S // 4F 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3A3T	170.94
HANYU	51.01	4Lo // 3A 4T3T	103.43	4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	154.44
			105.41	4Lo 4S 3F // 4S3T 4T 4T2T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	156.42
			107.06	4Lo 4S 3F // 4Lo3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3Lz	158.07
			109.83	4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz	160.84
			111.26	4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 3A	162.27
FERNANDEZ	47.75	4T3T 4S // 3A	100.92	4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4T 3A2T 3Lz3T3Lo 3F 3S	148.67
			102.68	4Lo 4S3T 3A // 4S 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.43
			103.11	4Lo 4S 3A // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.86
			104.41	4Lo 4S2T 3A // 4T3T3Lo 4T 3A2T 3F 3Lz	152.16
JIN	51.33	4Lz3T 3A // 4T	110.78	4Lz3T 4S 4Lo // 4T2T 4T 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	162.11
			114.10	4Lz3T 4Lo 4Lz // 4T2T 4S 3A1Lo3S 3A 3Lz	165.43
CHAN	48.05	4T3T 4S // 3A	94.25	4T3T 4S 3A1Lo3S // 4T 3A 3Lo 3Lz2T 3F	142.30
			96.08	4F 4S 3A3T // 4T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3Lo 3Lz	144.13
			99.98	4F 4S 3A1Lo3S // 4T3T 3A 3Lz3T 3F 3Lo	148.03
			102.28	4T3T 4F 4S // 4T 3A2T 3A 3Lz1Lo3S 3F	150.33
ZHOU	53.15	4Lz3T 4F // 3A	112.29	4Lz 4F 4S3T // 4T 4S 3A 3A2T 3Lz1Lo3F	165.44

 

*Speculative layouts only

 

EDIT 1: Added Vincent Zhou's possible SP/FS layouts.

EDIT 2: Added more layouts to a few skaters. 

 

 

 

[xeyra]

And this is the analysis. This actually makes a few points in the general discussion rather valid (does he need the 4Lz or not? Possibly not, actually, but that might be a bit risky), but one needs to remember these GOEs/PCS were valid only for the 2016-2017 season. Who knows what will come next season and how some will improve. 

 

BEST GOE AND PCS FROM 2016-2017 SEASON

 

SKATER	BEST SP GOE	BEST FS GOE	BEST TOTAL GOE	BEST SP PCS	BEST FS PCS	BEST TOTAL PCS	TOTAL ADDED TO BV
HANYU	10.56	22.69	33.25	47.35	97.08	144.43	177.68
FERNANDEZ	13.04	15.20	28.24	48.26	95.70	143.96	172.20
CHAN	11.21	12.96	24.17	48.02	95.14	143.16	167.33
UNO	9.94	15.29	25.23	46.74	94.42	141.16	166.39
CHEN	7.32	12.11	19.43	43.54	88.86	132.40	151.83
JIN	6.92	15.24	22.16	41.86	86.00	127.86	150.02

 

So, let's take some scenarios, with layouts picked at random:

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	154.44	177.68	332.12	Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout
UNO	164.43	166.39	330.82	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lz
CHEN	175.19	151.83	327.02	SP + Possible 7-quad layout
FERNANDEZ	150.43	172.20	322.63	SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lo
CHAN	150.33	167.33	317.66	SP + 4-quad layout with 4F
JIN	165.43	150.02	315.45	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lo and 2x 4Lz

 

So, from these complicated scenarios, a few things can be posited:

• Shoma would need to make certain a 5-quad layout with 4Lz would garner more GOE/PCS than he managed to get at Worlds. He just needs one good day and those 2 points difference will be gone. 
• Nathan needs to work on his GOE/PCS, otherwise not even a 7-quad layout will actually save him. 
• What will Yuzu achieve with a perfectly skated Chopin 3.0 allied even to just a Worlds 2017 FS...
• To note: PCS will probably rise steadily through the season. 

 

[AsteroidB-612]

Thank you @xeyra for your wonderful analysis and stat and great compiling/tabling skill! I have enjoyed all your data work on planet Hanyu and find them super useful~

Edit: and from this chart we can see that Uno is the closest to Hanyu (speculation, but still) if we add everything together... Trailing behind with only 1.3 point!!!

And if the judges loves him even more this season (we already know his music choice is down their alley)+ if he gains momentum he could surpass Yuzu...

 

[xeyra]

 Corrected a mistake on Patrick's Best FS PCS, which changed some totals. Sorry about that.

[xeyra]

And how about this: 

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	160.84	177.68	338.52	Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz

 

Of course, this would require him to have a +2 GOE 4Lz by Olys. 

[Xen]

1 hour ago, AsteroidB-612 said:

Thank you @xeyra for your wonderful analysis and stat and great compiling/tabling skill! I have enjoyed all your data work on planet Hanyu and find them super useful~

Edit: and from this chart we can see that Uno is the closest to Hanyu (speculation, but still) if we add everything together... Trailing behind with only 1.3 point!!!

And if the judges loves him even more this season (we already know his music choice is down their alley)+ if he gains momentum he could surpass Yuzu...

 

Long story short: Hanyu fans are such worryworts. 

Honestly, I wouldn't fully follow that chart, because there are some things not considered. 

1) I don't think Yuzu will go with Layout option no1.  This I find more likely: 109.83, 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz --> this is because he likes back to back quads, and is very particular about having edge jumps and toe jumps balanced

2) For the sake of stability and health, I think Nate will actually end up with this (though him and his team are kind of crazy): 

117.10, 4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz ---> this I can see him executing, but who know...

3) My opinion only, but I don't see that 4 Lz coming in for Shoma (okay, I guess I need to return my shoma club membership?): 107.34, 4Lo 4F 3Lz // 3A3T 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S (maybe a 4S instead). 

 

So I'd up Yuzu's score by about 6, decrease Uno's by about 4-6 and decrease Nate's by about 5 points,  so the actual difference is about 12 points min.  His decision of Chopin is wise in retrospect. The layout is competitve enough, plus it's fairly easy for him. That way he won't be exhausted for the long. 

 

And Xeyra beat me to it. In true crazy judging fashion it's not +2 GOE, you need to add decimals at the end, like a +2.3 GOE. 

[Yatagarasu]

1 minute ago, xeyra said:

Of course, this would require him to have a +2 GOE 4Lz by Olys. 

 

Want to bet? 

[xeyra]

 

11 minutes ago, Xen said:

Long story short: Hanyu fans are such worryworts. 

Honestly, I wouldn't fully follow that chart, because there are some things not considered. 

1) I don't think Yuzu will go with Layout option no1.  This I find more likely: 109.83, 4Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A3T 3A1Lo3S 3Lz --> this is because he likes back to back quads, and is very particular about having edge jumps and toe jumps balanced

2) For the sake of stability and health, I think Nate will actually end up with this (though him and his team are kind of crazy): 

117.10, 4Lz3T 4F 4Lz // 4F2T 3A 4S 4T2T2Lo 3Lz ---> this I can see him executing, but who know...

3) My opinion only, but I don't see that 4 Lz coming in for Shoma (okay, I guess I need to return my shoma club membership?): 107.34, 4Lo 4F 3Lz // 3A3T 4F2T 4T 3A1Lo3F 3S (maybe a 4S instead). 

 

So I'd up Yuzu's score by about 6, decrease Uno's by about 4-6 and decrease Nate's by about 5 points,  so the actual difference is about 12 points min.  His decision of Chopin is wise in retrospect. The layout is competitve enough, plus it's fairly easy for him. That way he won't be exhausted for the long. 

 

And Xeyra beat me to it. In true crazy judging fashion it's not +2 GOE, you need to add decimals at the end, like a +2.3 GOE. 

 

Oh, I think that 6-quad option is more likely for Nathan too. I was going by the highest BV for him for comparison purposes. Revising the table to meet your options:

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	154.44	177.68	332.12	Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout
	160.84	177.68	338.52	Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz
UNO	158.65	166.39	325.04	SP + WTT 2017 layout
	164.43	166.39	330.82	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lz
CHEN	170.25	151.83	322.08	SP + 6-quad layout
	175.19	151.83	327.02	SP + Possible 7-quad layout
FERNANDEZ	150.43	172.20	322.63	SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lo
CHAN	150.33	167.33	317.66	SP + 4-quad layout with 4F
JIN	165.43	150.02	315.45	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lo and 2x 4Lz

 

Edit: From my understanding, Shoma will probably not do the 4S because he has difficulty getting the strength needed for the takeoff for it (I don't remember if the issue is with his left or right leg, whichever is responsible for the takeoff on the 4S). Hence training the 4Lz. 

[Xen]

5 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

Want to bet? 

That he'll achieve a +2 min GOE 4 LZ by Oly? That might not be a bad bet.

 

And I almost forgot, depending on how the first GP scores come out and whether the judges will start following rules, and start enforcing edges and URs etc, there's also a possiblity that his GOEs could go up. And other skaters have lower PCS if they don't skate clean. Yes, we've all been pessimistic about his scores at Helsenki, but let's not fully rule out this either. If there are stricter enforcements of tech stuff, JSF might end up throwing weight a bit more behind Yuzu (if they were so wise-a girl can hope right), and who knows, a story about a first asian back to back OGM might be considered good publicity for the Olympics. We haven't had back to backs for so long. 

[kaeryth]

Can I just say, @xeyra , that I love your tables