2019–20 Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) Thread

[Lunna]

We have pneumonia local epidemics (sometimes a whole school can close for several weeks) in different regions every year (flue season), it was in Autumn 2019 too, but was it of COVID-19 or any other virus, who knows.

[SitTwizzle]

28 minutes ago, river said:

The most recent article I can find only shows an 88% positive predictive value for chest X-ray for COVID-19. I suspect all of those cases prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in China are false positives. It’s much more plausible that this is a recent disease that spread. Endemic diseases don’t suddenly flare up out of nowhere like COVID-19 has.

In the Barcelona survey, they analysed sewage water samples, a March 12th sample was positive (as well as December samples in Torino and Milano).

[river]

6 minutes ago, SitTwizzle said:

In the Barcelona survey, they analysed sewage water samples, a March 12th sample was positive (as well as December samples in Torino and Milano).

That study is still undergoing peer review and has not been published. Other scientists have cautioned (rightfully so) that it is entirely possible that there was a lab error in the testing. January 2020 I’ll believe. March 2019 defies logic. I’m extremely skeptical for now.

[SitTwizzle]

1 hour ago, river said:

That study is still undergoing peer review and has not been published. Other scientists have cautioned (rightfully so) that it is entirely possible that there was a lab error in the testing. January 2020 I’ll believe. March 2019 defies logic. I’m extremely skeptical for now.

I'll admit the March one lets me perplex.

December ones in several Italian locations though...

I wonder if there will be research with human tissues etc.

[SitTwizzle]

French Polynesia have been rather spared by the virus.

Still, flights to New Zealand (July and August) and Japan (July, August and September) remain cancelled, while flights to Paris resumed last week; but instead of their usual stopover in Los Angeles, they will have it in Vancouver. I don't know which preventive measures are taken to avoid spreading infection.

This particularly as they mean to resume flights between Papeete and Los Angeles (but not to Paris) on July 15th, while the epidemic situation in California seems worrying.

During the peak of the epidemic (March 34th, April 7th and April 19th), they had three flights non-stop between Papeete and Paris, with the inbound flights refuelling in Pointe-à-Pitre (Guadeloupe, a French Caribbean district), as the winds make westbound flights more fuel-consuming. The outbound flights hold the record of the longest domestic flights but I should have preferred less sad circumstances.

Another company flying between Papeete and Paris (usually via San Francisco), French Bee, is to resume its flights on July 15th, also via Vancouver, but not its flights to San Francisco (cancelled until July 31st, nothing said for afterwards yet).

Here a video of a previous exceptional stopover of an ATN 787 (F-OVAA, Bora-Bora) in Vancouver.

 

[SitTwizzle]

I had already sent a link to graphs showing excess of deaths in many European countries :

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(European Mortality Morbidity is an European Union net of entities researching epidemiology, who have agreed to a same method of counting.)

 

I found eventually the graphs for USA :

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

CDC is also an official entity. We can see the epidemic may be past in US globally, but a surge two weeks ago gives some worries, a few more weeks are needed, at least one.

One can also follow it state by state. I had a look at Nevada, where ACI is planned to happen, and I see only one week with a strong excess of deaths, but also a trend, in the last months, to a rather higher number of deaths, without reaching the threshold.

 

[Songster01]

6 hours ago, SitTwizzle said:

I had already sent a link to graphs showing excess of deaths in many European countries :

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(European Mortality Morbidity is an European Union net of entities researching epidemiology, who have agreed to a same method of counting.)

 

I found eventually the graphs for USA :

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

CDC is also an official entity. We can see the epidemic may be past in US globally, but a surge two weeks ago gives some worries, a few more weeks are needed, at least one.

One can also follow it state by state. I had a look at Nevada, where ACI is planned to happen, and I see only one week with a strong excess of deaths, but also a trend, in the last months, to a rather higher number of deaths, without reaching the threshold.

 

 

Alas, but the database for reporting hospitalization in the US has been changed last month suddenly and now is sent via a Trump-friendly contractor: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/15/891351706/white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations  Statistics from the US have to be viewed with an even bigger dose of salt now, thanks to this fishy and sudden change .  Coincidentally, the Washington Post is reporting though the move was making it tougher to access hospitalization data, they've learned that across the US hospitalizations rose 49% in July (article is behind a paywall).  The epidemic is far, far, far from "past" in the US!  Dr. Fauci is warning that another set of states are heating up now and risk losing control of cases: https://abc11.com/covid-coronavirus-fauci-cases/6343149/

 

Considering that no place in the US is near herd immunity and even the best-case scenarios for vaccines being _widely_ available is later in 2021, we need to realize that with the dangerous politicization of science in the US and the lack of federal )and sometimes state) leadership, no state in the US can be guaranteed a safe or smart setting for indoor sports that can't handle a true bubble scenario that would fit the needs of fs as a sport.  What seems to be "not a firestorm" at this moment may very well be in the red zone a month or two hence.  School is starting up in the US in Aug/Sept and the prep is looking inadequate in many parts of the US, given that testing and tracing is inadequate now even in states that are not in the red zone.  My niece waited 6 days for her results after being exposed in CO. Even 5 days is widely considered too late to be able to get a decent handle on controlling spread.  Add in quarantine fatigue making some people quite lax, on top of the idiocy of anti-masking and assorted conspiracies.

 

Considering that many people who don't get the disease badly enough to be hospitalized show signs of organ damage (esp heart and lung, for ex see this article https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid19-concerns-about-lasting-heart-damage/ and this https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/) of uncertain duration, why would we want to potentially jeopardize the careers and lives of athletes and teams (not to mention arena staff and volunteers) for short-term gratification?  Do we want skaters to go through what Eduardo Rodriguez is experiencing? https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-pitcher-eduardo-rodriguez-confirms-hes-dealing-with-heart-issue-stemming-from-covid-19-infection/

 

ACI is a Canadian event usually held in September; do you mean the US SGP event, held in October? 

[SitTwizzle]

2 hours ago, Songster01 said:

 

Alas, but the database for reporting hospitalization in the US has been changed last month suddenly and now is sent via a Trump-friendly contractor: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/15/891351706/white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations  Statistics from the US have to be viewed with an even bigger dose of salt now, thanks to this fishy and sudden change .  Coincidentally, the Washington Post is reporting though the move was making it tougher to access hospitalization data, they've learned that across the US hospitalizations rose 49% in July (article is behind a paywall).  The epidemic is far, far, far from "past" in the US!  Dr. Fauci is warning that another set of states are heating up now and risk losing control of cases: https://abc11.com/covid-coronavirus-fauci-cases/6343149/

 

Considering that no place in the US is near herd immunity and even the best-case scenarios for vaccines being _widely_ available is later in 2021, we need to realize that with the dangerous politicization of science in the US and the lack of federal )and sometimes state) leadership, no state in the US can be guaranteed a safe or smart setting for indoor sports that can't handle a true bubble scenario that would fit the needs of fs as a sport.  What seems to be "not a firestorm" at this moment may very well be in the red zone a month or two hence.  School is starting up in the US in Aug/Sept and the prep is looking inadequate in many parts of the US, given that testing and tracing is inadequate now even in states that are not in the red zone.  My niece waited 6 days for her results after being exposed in CO. Even 5 days is widely considered too late to be able to get a decent handle on controlling spread.  Add in quarantine fatigue making some people quite lax, on top of the idiocy of anti-masking and assorted conspiracies.

 

Considering that many people who don't get the disease badly enough to be hospitalized show signs of organ damage (esp heart and lung, for ex see this article https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid19-concerns-about-lasting-heart-damage/ and this https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/) of uncertain duration, why would we want to potentially jeopardize the careers and lives of athletes and teams (not to mention arena staff and volunteers) for short-term gratification?  Do we want skaters to go through what Eduardo Rodriguez is experiencing? https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-pitcher-eduardo-rodriguez-confirms-hes-dealing-with-heart-issue-stemming-from-covid-19-infection/

 

ACI is a Canadian event usually held in September; do you mean the US SGP event, held in October? 

The problem with excess of mortality numbers is, indeed, that they are in average about a month after the contamination? (I don't know if there's a survey on this topic.) Anyway, weeks after it. While hospitalisations are in-between. BUT hospitalisations, as you underline, are a number easier to manipulate than mortality. So I tend to think we will have to wait a few weeks to know how it is now...

In fact I meant Skate America, announced to be held in Las Vegas again. Sorry for the mistake (Freudian slip?)

And I do too, worry about athletes' safety as, as you say, there can be long term damage.

What about a French joke about statisticians?

A recruitment agency is searching the best candidate for a management position, and selects three men on its shortlist (I had never noticed before, the joke was somehow sexist).

There's a young graduate of École Polytechnique (or shorter : X, an elite university/school), a middle aged statistician from ENSAE (less elite) and an old engineer from the Arts-et-Métiers (closer to mid-tier).

The latter is interviewed first, all goes well, at the end the recruiter asks him : how much is 2 + 2? He answers : 4, of course.

Then the X. The interview goes well, then the recruiter asks : how much is 2 + 2? The candidate starts very complex calculations and after a quarter hour, proudly announces : 3.999999 to the infinite.

At last, the ENSAE alumnus. The interview goes as well as for the others, then the recruiter asks the same question. The candidate gets up, checks the windows and the door, then whispers in the recruiter's ear : how much do you want it to be? 

 

[Sombreuil]

Just hoping to god no one catches the virus at any of these GPS replacements - I feel as though they tempted fate quite adequately with 4CC - no need to invite more risk.

[SitTwizzle]

1 hour ago, Sombreuil said:

Just hoping to god no one catches the virus at any of these GPS replacements - I feel as though they tempted fate quite adequately with 4CC - no need to invite more risk.

I don't think they tempted fate with 4CC, they did all what mattered.

Unlike Synchronised Worlds for instance.

But how to rely on federations (except Korean, and probably Japanese and Chinese) or on ISU? Then don't even seem able to ask Korean federation how they did? Or ask specialists?

[Lunna]

39 минут назад, SitTwizzle сказал:

But how to rely on federations (except Korean, and probably Japanese and Chinese) or on ISU? Then don't even seem able to ask Korean federation how they did? Or ask specialists?

I believe now almost every country developed protocol for such events together with it's health officials. At least Russia has one regarding sports events (is it effective enough is another question).

[Sombreuil]

I watched a programme on catch up from the bbc called ‘ Surviving the virus - my brother and me’ about the van Tulleken twins , both doctors, one a researcher, the other going around the world in disaster/epidemic relief work.  The researcher went back to the wards, and the relief worker, who had had COVID, went to work in a care home, but suffered serious heart problems weeks after he had ‘recovered’, ending up in the emergency department of his brother’s hospital.  The potential long term effects are gradually emerging and it’s scary to see how little the experts in the field know about how all this will pan out.  The saddest for me was a man who was a health worker, struggling with rehab after the stroke that followed his bout of COVID, and worrying about his children who were without a parent for the time being as his wife died of breast cancer just before the lockdown.

 

[rockstaryuzu]

So how's everyone doing with the pandemic grind? Just thought I'd check in. 

 

I use the term 'grind' deliberately. (Where I am) We're in a stage now where the infection rate is fairly low so we're doing a fairly normal level of activity but with social distancing, masks, and other safety measures in place. We've been in this stage now since mid-July and probably will be like this until the pandemic draws to a close, unless things get worse again. And it feels like it's been forever! With no end in sight. 

 

That's what I mean by 'grind'. It's just wearing me down a little at a time every day. \

 

So I've taken to distraction as a coping method. I'm probably going to have a laundry list of new fandoms and hobbies, skills and projects completed by the end of all this. 

 

But I miss my old life. It's not that I was doing so much more than I'm doing now, it's that I didn't have to worry that an ordinary action would make me sick. 

 

So, yeah, how are you all coping? Everyone still able to find the positive things? 

 

[Anni]

  

On 9/2/2020 at 8:56 PM, rockstaryuzu said:

So how's everyone doing with pandemic grind? Just thought I'd check in. 

 

I use the term 'grind' deliberately. (Where I am) We're in a stage now where the infection rate is fairly low so we're doing a fairly normal level of activity but with social distancing, masks, and other safety measures in place. We've been in this stage now since mid-July and probably will be like this until the pandemic draws to a close, unless things get worse again. And it feels like it's been forever! With no end in sight. 

 

That's what I mean by 'grind'. It's just wearing me down a little at a time every day. \

 

So I've taken to distraction as a coping method. I'm probably going to have a laundry list of new fandoms and hobbies, skills and projects completed by the end of all this. 

 

But I miss my old life. It's not that I was doing so much more than I'm doing now, it's that I didn't have to worry that an ordinary action would make me sick. 

 

So, yeah, how are you all coping? Everyone still able to find the positive things? 

 

 

Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. I feel the same.

 

By the way became a player tested positive at the US Open. I'm really worried about the upcoming skating events.

 

Stay safe and healthy!

[Lunna]

В 02.09.2020 в 21:56, rockstaryuzu сказал:

So, yeah, how are you all coping? Everyone still able to find the positive things?

The only positive thing is partly working from home still.

Life mostly back to normal here, only masks needed in transport and shops (not like everyone uses it though). Parks, gym, swimming-pool, restaurants, even my dance classes are back (but Japanese classes are not, but that's cuz we used one of the classmates office to study, which is impossible now). I think cinemas and theaters are back too, but I don't go to those.

But also school year started, people are back from summer vacation, so who knows how it'll go from here.

Of course I miss my travels a lot, but for some situation is worse. My friend's son is studying in Japan now, she should go to him in April but alas... She can't fly to Japan and he can't fly here or he will not be able to return back, so situation is harder for those who have close relatives abroad.