General Yuzuru Chat

[Guest Mary_kyo]

 

Isn’t it strange that as soon as he really went for 4A, his scores seem to be more normal now? It seems 4A does have an impact on judges and the scores. But I doubt it can stop Nathan inflation. Behind Nathan is USFS and a lot of powerful figures (I can even name them here but better not), pretty much as long as Nate doesn’t fall on his jumps, he is given the win.

But if Yuzu really lands 4A in Beijing, regardless of the result, it will be hitting two big birds with one stone. First making history in the most amazing way and second, basically exposing ISU’s faulty scoring system and the nonsense BV for 4A.

[YuzuBoy]

At this point I dont think Nathan needs the clean skate to win the Olympics. Judges will just throw points at him and call it a day and I think Yuzuru knows that. That's why his main goal is 4A. It would totally outshine Nathan win and, if it is mean of me to say, I will be happy to see that.b

[Guest turquoiseblue]

[NEWS]

[makebelieveup]

29 minutes ago, Mary_kyo said:

 

Isn’t it strange that as soon as he really went for 4A, his scores seem to be more normal now? It seems 4A does have an impact on judges and the scores. But I doubt it can stop Nathan inflation. Behind Nathan is USFS and a lot of powerful figures (I can even name them here but better not), pretty much as long as Nate doesn’t fall on his jumps, he is given the win.

But if Yuzu really lands 4A in Beijing, regardless of the result, it will be hitting two big birds with one stone. First making history in the most amazing way and second, basically exposing ISU’s faulty scoring system and the nonsense BV for 4A.

Its still national panel but i have a feeling they felt he was still their best shot after so many years. They were betting on shoma but he never actually won against Nathan until this season (nathan bombed). And Shoma even missed the podium many times. Then they started to bet on Yuma, but even with those candies, his scores even at his best realistically were no where near Nathan's. So seeing Yuzu's new weapon, they could only bet a clean Yuzu is their best chance. Even so I think the scores at nationals were only a bit better than last year nationals. He was robbed last year of a 330. I think they were only slightly more generous this year. not sure how he would get judged at olympic though.

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, YuzuBoy said:

At this point I dont think Nathan needs the clean skate to win the Olympics. Judges will just throw points at him and call it a day and I think Yuzuru knows that. That's why his main goal is 4A. It would totally outshine Nathan win and, if it is mean of me to say, I will be happy to see that.b

this tbh. beijing seems pretty anticlimatic 

[makebelieveup]

i like how nbc headline says "Yuzuru attempts 4a" lol they had to make sure to put this. imagine if it were their skater "triple world champion Nathan Chen becomes the first ever to land quad axel at first comeback and clinches 6th world title" 

[Melodie]

 

 Comparison between Tenchi ver 1 &2, first outing.

 

Very interesting to see all the changes both in jump placement and choreo. 

 

[makebelieveup]

8 minutes ago, Melodie said:

 

 Comparison between Tenchi ver 1 &2, first outing.

 

Very interesting to see all the changes both in jump placement and choreo. 

 

I truly think he was robbed of the right score last year..his pcs was so much better. should have gotten higher goe and pcs which would have given him about 220. I think this year the pcs was okay but the goe was also quite lowballed on some elements. 

 

btw, am i imagining or is his costume more green this year putting the two side by side

[toesocks]

9 minutes ago, makebelieveup said:

I truly think he was robbed of the right score last year..his pcs was so much better. should have gotten higher goe and pcs which would have given him about 220. I think this year the pcs was okay but the goe was also quite lowballed on some elements. 

 

btw, am i imagining or is his costume more green this year putting the two side by side

I think that might also be lighting, but there's definitely more pink hues in the costume as well!

[Yuzuwinnie]

2 hours ago, SuzyQ said:

Pictures:

 

https://thedigestweb.com/photo/detail/id=50705&repeatCnt=6

 

 

 

  Suzy Q for these wonderful photos and to say that you were present live = lucky and I saw that you came back home with your   head in the stars and did you attend the gala? Because I wanted to be part of people sitting, not in the stands, but down closer skaters and for the Olympics 2022 and Yuzu, he knows what he does and is a strategist 

[shanshani]

5 hours ago, Mary_kyo said:

Oh so he is not planning to add 4Lo or 4Lz. Well, considering how Nathan’s jumps are scored and his unrealistic high PCS, I doubt Yuzu has a high chance of winning with this layout. Also realistically, I don’t think 4A will be ready in a month. But at the same time, I wasn’t expecting him to stay on his feet for the 4A in nationals FS too. I wonder what universe has in store for him.

 

If he changed 4A to 4Lo and 4Lz, he had a chance to win even with the scoring corruption but well, 4A is what he has bet his life on it. So who am I to judge this decision.

 

My prediction is that Nathan will ditch 4Lo as he was never good with that jump and he rotates it only using his physical power with no subtle technique. Nathan is already struggling with his other jumps but is obviously switching between his old empty programs to try to find the one which gives him the most consistency. Unfortunately, Nathan’s 5 quads layout with his both super empty recycled programs automatically get the high PCS he never deserved. So Yuzu can compete with Nathan only if he goes for 5 very stable perfect quads while doing his insanely packed programs. Anyway, I have no hopes for Beijing but I pray to see Yuzu’s perfect 4A at least once in any remaining competitions. That will go down in history with much more impact than Nathan’s gold in Beijing. If you ask me Nathan has already gone down in FS history as a controversial skater (or more precisely a jumper) with questionable scores and no PR or medals will ever change his tainted reputation sadly.

I disagree. I don't think Yuzu needs 5 quads to win. Nathan's jumps actually haven't been scored as generously this season, and even if the judges get a little bit more generous as long as they don't go to 2019 GPF levels Yuzu can win over Nathan even if Nathan does 1 more quad, especially if Yuzu upgrades 3A2T to 3A3Lo. See:

 

Assuming everything is landed squeaky clean, let's do an estimate of his score. Unfortunately Yuzu has only had one competition this season and it was nationals, so it's a bit hard to tell how international judges might score him, but if we look at his Nats scores, we see that:

 

Average PCS (both programs)	9.74
Average GOE (jumps, excl. 4A<<)	4.07
Average GOE (spins)	4.20
Average GOE (steps/choreo seq)	4.96

 

This is probably a tad generous compared to international judges, so let's suppose that Yuzu gets 4 GOE per element and 9.7 per component. (Note that he could also have executed the 4T3T combos and the 3A in the SP better, and the 4A<< probably cost him a couple of points of PCS). That would give him the following scores depending on his layout:

 

	3A2T & 3Lo	3A3Lo & 3F
4Lo	330.12	333.72
4A	332.92	337.08

 

Now let's look at Nathan. Nathan has been to two international competitions this season, but Skate America was a bit of a disaster for him so let's exclude that.

 

Looking at his Skate Canada scores:

Average PCS	9.28
Average GOE (jumps, excluding -GOE and one wonky 4Lz)	2.69
Average GOE (spins)	3.17
Average GOE (steps/choreo)	4.22

 

I rather generously excluded a 4Lz that got lower GOE due to axis/landing problems but still had positive GOE, which I didn't do for Yuzu's slightly flawed jumps. Even then, we can see that Nathan's average jump GOE was actually surprisingly reasonable that competition, given how stiff/unaesthetic his jump landings are, their lack of size, etc. I don't know if the judges have finally seen the light, or if they just didn't want him at Skate Canada any more because they want Yuzu and the $$$ his audience brings back, but let's not trust the judges too much. If we look at World's last season, his average jump GOE there was 2.95 (excluding fall), so lets round that up to 3. He also got 96 PCS in the FS for some ridiculous reason. 

 

So using 3 for GOEs for jumps and spins and 4 for steps/choreo (why), and 9.5 average components, we get these scores depending on Nathan's layout:

	4Lz 4T3T SP	4Lz 4F3T SP
5 Quad FS	330.09	332.19
6 Quad FS	336.07	338.17

 

So if Yuzu keeps the Nats layout and manages to land the 4A nicely, then he can beat a 5 quad Nathan under these scoring conditions, although the margins are very narrow so in reality it may be a tossup. If he also upgrades to 3A3Lo, then he can a cinch a more definitive win over 5 quad Nathan (honestly upgrading 3A2T to 3A3Lo is actually more valuable than upgrading the 4Lo to 4A, but Yuzu is Yuzu) and is competitive with even 6 quad Nathan (who, mind you, has to land 4Lo). Note that even if Yuzu doesn't manage the 4A, if he switches back to 4Lo or 4Lz but does upgrade 3A2T to 3A3Lo he can still win over 5 quad Nathan.

 

Overall, I feel like my scoring assumptions here were also fairly generous to Nathan--certainly much more generous than he deserves. 9.5 components, seriously? So if the judging is just a bit more reasonable, Yuzu can get a more clear-cut victory. Of course, if judges decide they're blind and want to screw over Yuzu instead then all of this is out the window. But there's not a whole lot Yuzu can do in that case.

 

Overall, I think it's more important that Yuzu skates clean and gets high GOEs on every element, because that's where the points he needs to make up any BV difference with Nathan comes from. If he starts having bad landings because he runs out of stamina due to 5 quads, that ultimately is going to cost him more in GOE and PCS than the extra quad helps.

 

I also think that there's a huge psychological component to judging that can't be captured by mathematical analysis, and that's actually the chief edge the 4A provides. The amount of points you're technically supposed to gain from landing 4A is ridiculously small compared to the jump's difficulty, but judges judge based on feelings, and landing 4A is really, really impressive. I think the impressiveness of achievements is part of why judges inflate Nathan's PCS so much (though obviously not the only reason)--landing 5 quads is impressive, and that feeling of being impressed is actually one of the biggest contributing factors to how they score PCS. So therefore, it's likely that landing 4A will be more valuable point-wise than it appears to be just based on the rulebook.

 

Edit: Lol in the time it took me to write this essay there have been like 2 new pages of posts. 

[Yuzurella]

 

Yuzu, if you've decided that you will give it your all, then we will be with you along the way, supporting you and cheering you on!

 

It makes me sad to think that Yuzu is going to the Olympics after all and I won't be able to watch and support him him there, as I had intended to. But nothing can be done about that.

 

The most important thing is that Yuzu stays healthy and happy along the way and achieves his dreams and goals. I'll be supporting and cheering him from afar!

 

[NEWS]

[Guest Mary_kyo]

22 minutes ago, shanshani said:

I disagree. I don't think Yuzu needs 5 quads to win. Nathan's jumps actually haven't been scored as generously this season, and even if the judges get a little bit more generous as long as they don't go to 2019 GPF levels Yuzu can win over Nathan even if Nathan does 1 more quad, especially if Yuzu upgrades 3A2T to 3A3Lo.

Wow, thank you for such detailed analysis. It gave me bits of hope. 

 

But all of these are under the assumption that Nathan's GOEs don’t reach GPF19 level…. and they actually can and probably will. ISU’s scoring never followed statistics and reality.

[Bilge]

37 minutes ago, shanshani said:

I disagree. I don't think Yuzu needs 5 quads to win. Nathan's jumps actually haven't been scored as generously this season, and even if the judges get a little bit more generous as long as they don't go to 2019 GPF levels Yuzu can win over Nathan even if Nathan does 1 more quad, especially if Yuzu upgrades 3A2T to 3A3Lo. See:

 

Assuming everything is landed squeaky clean, let's do an estimate of his score. Unfortunately Yuzu has only had one competition this season and it was nationals, so it's a bit hard to tell how international judges might score him, but if we look at his Nats scores, we see that:

 

Average PCS (both programs)	9.74
Average GOE (jumps, excl. 4A<<)	4.07
Average GOE (spins)	4.20
Average GOE (steps/choreo seq)	4.96

 

This is probably a tad generous compared to international judges, so let's suppose that Yuzu gets 4 GOE per element and 9.7 per component. (Note that he could also have executed the 4T3T combos and the 3A in the SP better, and the 4A<< probably cost him a couple of points of PCS). That would give him the following scores depending on his layout:

 

	3A2T & 3Lo	3A3Lo & 3F
4Lo	330.12	333.72
4A	332.92	337.08

 

Now let's look at Nathan. Nathan has been to two international competitions this season, but Skate America was a bit of a disaster for him so let's exclude that.

 

Looking at his Skate Canada scores:

Average PCS	9.28
Average GOE (jumps, excluding -GOE and one wonky 4Lz)	2.69
Average GOE (spins)	3.17
Average GOE (steps/choreo)	4.22

 

I rather generously excluded a 4Lz that got lower GOE due to axis/landing problems but still had positive GOE, which I didn't do for Yuzu's slightly flawed jumps. Even then, we can see that Nathan's average jump GOE was actually surprisingly reasonable that competition, given how stiff/unaesthetic his jump landings are, their lack of size, etc. I don't know if the judges have finally seen the light, or if they just didn't want him at Skate Canada any more because they want Yuzu and the $$$ his audience brings back, but let's not trust the judges too much. If we look at World's last season, his average jump GOE there was 2.95 (excluding fall), so lets round that up to 3. He also got 96 PCS in the FS for some ridiculous reason. 

 

So using 3 for GOEs for jumps and spins and 4 for steps/choreo (why), and 9.5 average components, we get these scores depending on Nathan's layout:

	4Lz 4T3T SP	4Lz 4F3T SP
5 Quad FS	330.09	332.19
6 Quad FS	336.07	338.17

 

So if Yuzu keeps the Nats layout and manages to land the 4A nicely, then he can beat a 5 quad Nathan under these scoring conditions, although the margins are very narrow so in reality it may be a tossup. If he also upgrades to 3A3Lo, then he can a cinch a more definitive win over 5 quad Nathan (honestly upgrading 3A2T to 3A3Lo is actually more valuable than upgrading the 4Lo to 4A, but Yuzu is Yuzu) and is competitive with even 6 quad Nathan (who, mind you, has to land 4Lo). Note that even if Yuzu doesn't manage the 4A, if he switches back to 4Lo or 4Lz but does upgrade 3A2T to 3A3Lo he can still win over 5 quad Nathan.

 

Overall, I feel like my scoring assumptions here were also fairly generous to Nathan--certainly much more generous than he deserves. 9.5 components, seriously? So if the judging is just a bit more reasonable, Yuzu can get a more clear-cut victory. Of course, if judges decide they're blind and want to screw over Yuzu instead then all of this is out the window. But there's not a whole lot Yuzu can do in that case.

 

Overall, I think it's more important that Yuzu skates clean and gets high GOEs on every element, because that's where the points he needs to make up any BV difference with Nathan comes from. If he starts having bad landings because he runs out of stamina due to 5 quads, that ultimately is going to cost him more in GOE and PCS than the extra quad helps.

 

I also think that there's a huge psychological component to judging that can't be captured by mathematical analysis, and that's actually the chief edge the 4A provides. The amount of points you're technically supposed to gain from landing 4A is ridiculously small compared to the jump's difficulty, but judges judge based on feelings, and landing 4A is really, really impressive. I think the impressiveness of achievements is part of why judges inflate Nathan's PCS so much (though obviously not the only reason)--landing 5 quads is impressive, and that feeling of being impressed is actually one of the biggest contributing factors to how they score PCS. So therefore, it's likely that landing 4A will be more valuable point-wise than it appears to be just based on the rulebook.

 

Edit: Lol in the time it took me to write this essay there have been like 2 new pages of posts. 

kudos to your effort, such detailed analysis, thank you

[shanshani]

2 minutes ago, Mary_kyo said:

Wow, thank you for such detailed analysis. It gave me bits of hope. 

 

But all of these are under the assumption that Nathan's GOEs don’t reach GPF19 level…. and they actually can and probably will. ISU’s scoring never followed statistics and reality.

Sure, but the thing is, I don't really see the argument for them scoring that way outside of pure and naked corruption. Nathan's scores at World's weren't GPF2019 level either and he was directly against Yuzu there (though they were more generous than his Skate Canada scores). Expecting the judges to score Nathan like they did at Skate Canada is probably on the optimistic side of things, but it's still more reasonable than expecting them to score him the way they did over 2 years ago, especially when those scores from over 2 years ago have no basis in reality.

 

I don't exclude the possibility of pure and naked corruption, but at the end of the day there's no point in even worrying too much about strategy if that's what's going to happen. Just skate clean and let the scores fall where they will. The most important thing in that scenario is not to give them excuses and opportunities to rob you. There are a lot of points in GOE, and even very minor errors can have a significant impact on your scores, and judges have a great deal of discretion as to how much they can deduct for these kinds of flaws. (Yuzu probably lost ~1.8 points on the minor issues with the combo and 3A landings in the SP at nats, which is greater than the difference in BV between 4Lz and 4A, and that was with a friendly panel).

 

Anyway, I suspect the reason Yuzu says that he needs 4A to win, other than him being a dramatic anime protagonist, is that he also thinks that the psychological impact of 4A on the judges is worth more than the 4A looks to be worth on paper. I also suspect that Yuzu has noticed that Nathan hasn't been scored as generously recently, and then his scores here were good enough for him to conclude the scoring was not going to present an insurmountable obstacle. That's one of the reasons why he's finally committed to going to Olys. But he also thinks that without the 4A, even with the current scoring trends, he can't trust the judges to give him the win even if he deserves it (note the 4Lo scenario has him and 5 quad Nathan very close). Therefore he needs 4A to seal the deal. And I think I agree with that analysis (or I'm just projecting my own analysis onto his words, lol). 

[CaroSkate]

Maybe it is just me... 

I like white LMEY costume with Rondo Capriccioso more than the light blue costume.  

It makes him look like a chaotic piano genius.