2019/2020 Senior Ladies

[shanshani]

Sasha's PCS being held down is fair, but Alina's scores are inflated as hell. Sasha should not have to land 4 quads to beat her, Alina is not that much better than her in everything else. (Note that in a full competition Alina would have an advantage from the short, so with only a 6 pt gap in the free it's not clear Sasha would even win.) Nor should Rika be unable to beat her even if she skates clean. Rika and Alina's PCS should be the same at best and Rika should win handily on TES. 

[Paskud]

11 hours ago, shanshani said:

Sasha's PCS being held down is fair, but Alina's scores are inflated as hell. Sasha should not have to land 4 quads to beat her, Alina is not that much better than her in everything else. (Note that in a full competition Alina would have an advantage from the short, so with only a 6 pt gap in the free it's not clear Sasha would even win.) Nor should Rika be unable to beat her even if she skates clean. Rika and Alina's PCS should be the same at best and Rika should win handily on TES. 

I think Rika has by far better SS and CO than Alina. Plus at her best she is definitely better in PE.

So in PCS there should be clear gap between them.

[Old Cat Lady]

The return of Alena's 3axel is a complete game changer!  She goes from being in the middle of a dog fight for Russia's 3rd world spot to a favorite.  I haven't done the projections yet, but new rankings after this weekend

 

1. Trusova

2. Kostornaya - better quality on her elements than Kihira

3. Zagitova/Kihira - I think it'll just come down to how well each executes - not just being clean, but the quality of the elements on the day.  This, of course, is assuming that Kihira heals and puts the lutzes back in her program.

5. Scherbakova

6. Medvedeva

7. Tuktamysheva

8. Sakamoto - perhaps a little wishful thinking here, but right now I'm just going to write off her first competition as early season rust

9. Miyahara

10. You - higher scoring potential than Lim.

 

I dropped Tursynbaeva because if she's so injured that she can't even bend forward to receive her medals, I don't see how she's going to get that quad back this season.  Mariah Bell is on the bubble for the top 10 

 

I will emphasize again that this isn't a ranking of how I think they SHOULD score but how I think they WILL score.

 

Last week I was sure that Zagitova was on the world team but now I think it'll be a fight.  I still think she's the favorite for the team, but there's real pressure on her to perform consistently.  She desperately needs to keep her reputation up.

[Paskud]

12 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

2. Kostornaya - better quality on her elements than Kihira

 

Is Alena really that much superior on elements? Because on spins* and StSq (not SS, but StSq) they are quite equal. On other hand Alena's lutz is flat at best and her leg wraps on 2a, 3f and 3lz are still there and should get deduction in GOE. And euler looks like step out.

Alena on other hand gets more hight and distance on jumps. And has more speed going into everything outside of axel where it's Rika who needs to be really fast before 3a.

 

*On spins Alena is faster, but Rika's positions are better. Especially I-spin and bielmann.

[Old Cat Lady]

3 hours ago, Paskud said:

Is Alena really that much superior on elements?

 

Absolutely and by a significant margin.  Judging by what we've seen so far this year, her jumps are bigger, have a much better running edge, have a better landing position, normally a more difficult entry, often a more difficult air position, and often have some sort of musical detail.  Rika doesn't have a difficult entry on any of her jumps - there's only 2 that really have anything before the jump but there's such a large break between the steps and the jumps that it isn't really part of the entry. Rika's jumps are consistently very tilted in the air, which I personally don't consider a big deal but tilted jumps usually take a GOE hit.

 

Alena hit the outside edge in the SP and flat in the FS so it's  a matter of the execution on the day on whose lutz is better. It's irrelevant that it's a shallow edge if she hits it - there's no extra GOE for a deeper edge on a jump. Even if you want to argue that it's always on a flat, it only one aspect of only one jump.  Whatever leg wrap you're seeing doesn't affect the aesthetics of the jump - I highly doubt most judges are going to deduct for something that has no impact on the overall appearance of the jump.  

 

I disagree that Rika's spin positions are better.  Alena's are also faster and more centered. 

[Paskud]

1 hour ago, Old Cat Lady said:

 

Absolutely and by a significant margin.  Judging by what we've seen so far this year, her jumps are bigger, have a much better running edge, have a better landing position, normally a more difficult entry, often a more difficult air position, and often have some sort of musical detail.  Rika doesn't have a difficult entry on any of her jumps - there's only 2 that really have anything before the jump but there's such a large break between the steps and the jumps that it isn't really part of the entry. Rika's jumps are consistently very tilted in the air, which I personally don't consider a big deal but tilted jumps usually take a GOE hit.

 

Alena hit the outside edge in the SP and flat in the FS so it's  a matter of the execution on the day on whose lutz is better. It's irrelevant that it's a shallow edge if she hits it - there's no extra GOE for a deeper edge on a jump. Even if you want to argue that it's always on a flat, it only one aspect of only one jump.  Whatever leg wrap you're seeing doesn't affect the aesthetics of the jump - I highly doubt most judges are going to deduct for something that has no impact on the overall appearance of the jump.  

 

I disagree that Rika's spin positions are better.  Alena's are also faster and more centered. 

Rika's I-spin and bielmann are better. About steps, I prefer to look at previous season (couse she isn't healthy now) and she had entries in basically every jump outside of 3a and if her preparation is too long, then 90% of entries aren't entries. And I alsolutely don't know where you see so much tilted axis on her jumps. This is tilted enough to deserve any criticism?

Spoiler

I hope you can see it. I still don't know if I use imgur well. ^^'

 

 

And Alena has leg wrap on many of her jumps, so she shouldn't get good air position bullet and sometimes even deserves a deduction.

Spoiler

 

[Old Cat Lady]

Firstly, it is not true that a leg wrap (or tilt for that matter) requires a deduction.  There is nothing in the guidelines that say so and I personally wouldn't reduce for either unless it was excessive.  There is only a reference to having a good body position with no reference for what it should look like.  Judges have shown over and over that they don't reduce for things that aren't obvious or aren't marked by the tech panel.  Judges are not taking stills of jumps mid air and a tech panel doesn't flag body position. Alena's body position looks fine in real time.  I doubt most judges would take off for it, nor is there a requirement to do so. 

 

Unfortunately I'm no good at tech stuff so I can't make any stills or GIFS, but even in the stills you posted, you can see that Rika has much more of a tilt than Alena.  They're not supposed to, but judges clearly compare skaters when marking GOE and a tilt is much more obvious.  Even if you don't want to give her body position, Alena still hits more bullets than Rika.  

 

2nd, you have to go by this year rather than last year when talking about transitions.  I never said that Rika had long prep, but that she has no difficult entries.  And there is literally not a single one so far this year - I'll change my mind if the choreography changes. 

 

As far as technique, she was never a particularly big jumper so not sure what difference last year vs. this year is.

 

3rd, I already saw you comment about Rika's spins -repeating the same statements aren't going to make me change my mind.  I see nothing wrong with Alena's Biellman and frankly I don't remember how the I-spin compares.  And once again, even if you want to give Rika these 2 spins, they're only 2 of many.  Overall, Alena's spins are faster, more centered, more musical, with nice positions.

[Old Cat Lady]

Did my projected scores for Finlandia.  

 

Tuktamysheva

Actual total = 212.53

Projected Score = 79.37+149.2=228.57

BV=100.61

Oddly, she changed her FS layout quite a bit from Lombardia, which results in her losing 4.1 points in BV.  Her total projected score is 3.1 points lower than what I projected for Lombardia, but that is mostly due to the change in BV.

 

In an effort to be fair to all the skaters, I used WTT scores for PCS, but I don't know if that's a very good methodology  since WTT tends to score high and the point of the projections is to try to guess what they'd score in a real competition if they are clean.

 

Kostornaya

Used the actual PCS scores because I believe this is a career best for her.

Actual total is 234.67

Projected total is 77.08+161.97=239.05

BV=103.1

 

What's interesting is when I change Trusova's projected PCS to her actual PCS + projected TES at Ondrej Nepela, which is essentially what I had to do with Kostornaya, Trusova only scores 236.27.

 

If you use Trusova's JPN Open projected FS tes + Ondrej Nepela SP TES with actual PCS, the score becomes 241.51 (only 1.56 points lower) even with 4 quads!  The caveat here is that Trusova's landings were messy at JPN Open, causing low GOE's but I only change GOE's for elements that have negative GOE.

 

 

If you replace Kostornaya's SP 2a to 3a with the GOE she got for her 3a combo in the FS (+actual PCS from Finlandia), we get a projected SP of 83.07, making the combined total 245.04. 

[Deliverpooh]

Anna showed her strength in the FP. 

I don't think this will be her final BV this season yet either

[Old Cat Lady]

I think I underestimated Anna quite a bit.  Her lutz looks completely stable now.  It's going to be tough for Zagitova.  After seeing this, I feel like Tuk and Med are out of the race.

Then I wonder what happens to a top skater that still loves to compete but can't make the world team.  Some are saying they should retire - but what else are they supposed to do? They are still 2 of the best skaters in the world.  I don't think they're big enough to do their own tour unless they want to do one together maybe.  There's only so many shows and commentary positions out there.  

 

 

Honestly, not sure why I do these because they didn't seem to be indicative of anything last year but here's Skate America projections.

Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	36.42	30.86	67.28
LP	74.39	64.3	138.69
			205.97
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Proj Total
SP	41.76	34.68	76.44
LP	77.51	71.74	149.25
			225.69
BV:	35.99	67.62	103.61

 

Anna Scherbakova

	Actual TES	Actual PCS	Actual Total
SP	36.91	31.69	68.6
LP	92.2	67.96	160.16
	deduction:	-1	227.76
	Proj TES	Proj PCS	Proj Total
SP	41.59	34.00	75.59
LP	98.09	67.95	166.04
			241.63
BV:	33.78	80.38	114.16

 

 

 

One thing I've noticed this year is that it seems like judges are deducting more than the -1 to -2 on the GOE for under rotations.  I add +2 to the GOE's whenever a < is called, but the score is generally lower than what they would have gotten without the sign.

 

Tuk keeps changing her layout.  I'm guessing they're just experimenting based on what GOE they think she'll get.  I imagine the edge calls at the last event scared her off from the flips but she didn't get them at Lombardia. For a low GOE skater like her, she's better off going for the base value and hoping for the best from the tech panel unless she knows that a certain panel hates her.

[mercedes]

10 minutes ago, Old Cat Lady said:

I think I underestimated Anna quite a bit.  Her lutz looks completely stable now.  It's going to be tough for Zagitova.  After seeing this, I feel like Tuk and Med are out of the race.

Then I wonder what happens to a top skater that still loves to compete but can't make the world team.  Some are saying they should retire - but what else are they supposed to do? They are still 2 of the best skaters in the world.  I don't think they're big enough to do their own tour unless they want to do one together maybe.  There's only so many shows and commentary positions out there.  

 

 

 

it's pretty sad but that's my thinking as well.I remember when Brian said he would love Evgenia to be like Carolina Kostner and i thought yes Brian but Caro didn't have that depth of field of young skaters coming up like Medo has.

 

Nor Tuk neither Medo are my fave kind of skaters but i enjoy them so I hope they stick around ,they are both tough girls but yep watching the scores it seems you are right.

 

 

[Sombreuil]

Can’t help wondering whether the Russian fed has a job in PR in mind for EM - she did a great job for them in the lead up to PC Olympics and the recent appearance in a power suit......

[yuzuangel]

10 hours ago, Old Cat Lady said:

I think I underestimated Anna quite a bit.  Her lutz looks completely stable now.  It's going to be tough for Zagitova.

I think if Alina skates clean she will still go. She needs to be crystal clean though. 

The question is, which of the 3A will she bump off the team? I feel like the ISU should eventually change the spots requirement but that's just me. instead of taking spots from the smaller feds, just make it harder for large feds to get 3 spots.

 

sum of top 3 <= 8: 4 spots (pretty damn hard to get but at least it exists for the case if, say, Russian skaters sweep the podium or something)

sum of top 2 <= 12: 3 spots (also difficult)

sum of top 2 <= 18: 2 spots

 

if one skater:

top 10: 2 spots

 

basically you can only get n+1 more skater if you already have n skaters, no jumping from 1 to 3.

 

[Salior]

bit outdated now, but thought I'd chip in 

 

On 9/19/2019 at 6:01 AM, Yuzurella said:

 

Well, I've also been wondering for a long time why there are so many tiny junior girls that jump multiple quads, but only very few attempt 3As. In fact, if I think about the senior ladies of this season including the Eteri girls that just joined the seniors, there are actually now more who jump quads than 3A!

 

I think maybe that's because a quad is actually not that much harder than a 3A, but gets more points. So, why not just attack the jumps with the highest BV right away? Thus, so many juniors jumping 4Lz.

 

Also, I'm not a technical expert, but I think it's also easier to cheat a 4Lz by pre-rotating a lot? Whereas you can't really pre-rotate an Axel? These girls and boys and their coaches know that if they can land their "quads", they're pretty much guaranteed to win. And whether these jumps have a correct technique or so doesn't really matter nowadays. At least as long as you have the right passport.

 

Talking about good technique, apart from loving Axels, I'm also a correct Lutz enthusiast and I think it's just so sad that there are so few truly correct Lutzes with a clear and deep outside edge, clear toe-pick assistance and little to no pre-rotation nowadays. Let's enjoy the great Lutzes of Yuzu, Boyang, Elizaveta and Rika as long as they still exist...

 

Precisely. The girls can do 4Lz, 4S, 4T, but all of them only have 2A.

 

Something must be up, anyone with common sense can see that there's a gap in logic there. And what's the difference between the Axel and the rest? It's a forward jump so it's physically impossible to pre-rotate >90 degrees! And it's proven by scientific concepts too. Sad that not many people know about this. 

 

To explain this I'll have to go into physics.

 

Velocity is speed + direction. A speed that goes in different directions is not considered to be the same velocity. You can add up or cancel velocities to obtain the final speed of the object. 

 

 

 

Translational velocity is general direction and speed of the entire object,

Tangential velocity is the direction and speed at the edge of a circle.

 

Imagine a tornado. While the entire body is moving around at translational velocity, each particle in the tornado also has its own tangential velocity.

 

The reason tangential velocity exists is because of how forces work. To go around in a circle, there must be a continuous force that changes the direction of the particle. If there are no forces, the particle will just go in a straight line. 

 

 

 

Similarly, as a skater moves across the ice, the skater will have both translational velocity (in the direction of travel), and the tangential velocity (once the skater starts rotating). 

 

Since in the air, there's nothing propelling the skater, the combined velocity at the moment the weight leaves the ice will determine the direction of travel. It's kind of like how you need to push against something to move in outer space. Basic friction and Newton's Third Law. Hence to calculate the final combined velocity, we will consider the tangential velocity at the moment the weight leaves the ice. 

 

Here I use Lz vs Axel for example.

 

Lz is a toe jump, hence once the pick strikes, the weight should leave the ice immediately. Any additional ice marks indicate pre-rotation (as highlighted in yellow). Axel is an edge jump, so naturally it will have a small degree of pre-rotation, as the weight shifts from the entire blade to the ball of the foot for takeoff. Pre-rotation should be penalised when it exceeds 90˚, as per definition. 

 

In Lz, as you can see, despite >90˚ of pre-rotation, the skater can still travel in the initial direction of travel. The same goes for any other non-Axel jumps. 

 

However, in Axel, if you exceed 90˚ of pre-rotation, you'll be travelling backwards. 

 

 

 

 

Or as oonsie puts it - 

 

On 11/13/2018 at 7:53 AM, OonsieHui said:

Since the axel is jumped facing forward, if a skater is pre-rotated by 180° he would be facing the other way, and would no longer be facing forward, but facing backwards instead, and hence it wouldn't even be an axel. 

 

The presence or lack of pre-rotation can be clearly shown when examining the ice tracks made by the jump, by making the surface of the ice darker. It's really a pity that ISU doesn't care about this. 

 

To land a 4Lz, currently the girls rely on their small bodies and extra-fast rotational speed, to make up for the loss of launching speed due to friction on the ice from pre-rotation. A "correct" Lz should be in the air as soon as the toe pick strikes the ice, but with up to 180˚ pre-rotation, you only need to do 3.5 rotations in the air to make a "quad". That's just a little more than a triple Lz. And they can use the same technique for 3Lz so they only have to rotate 2.5 rounds in the air. That's why they can spam jumps after jumps after jumps. 

 

However, they cannot use the same technique on 3A, because they'll lose so much speed from the conflicting direction of tangential and translational velocity, that they'll fall flat on their face. This is why they can have 4Lz, 4S, and 4T, but only 2A. 

 

Imo that's why 3A should be the ultimate test for any skater's jumping ability. It shows your true jumping skills because it's impossible to cheat on it. 

[Salior]

WSJ wrote an article about “The Year Teenage Girls Blew Up Figure Skating”, addressing the quad mania after Skate Canada 2019. It was behind a paywall so someone reproduced it here 

 

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-H6gcXbAVv2rUiDTLfVSIyvkIR7L_ENcgiLiKrzC7Bk