When will Yuzu land 4A

[Yatagarasu]

20 hours ago, SparkleSalad said:

So most people are confident that he'll land it on his first try?

I say yes. Then he'll flub the next one, then it'll start stabilizing. 

[Blackberry]

I say ACI short program, which I realize makes no sense on the one hand, but I think there is a reason that we have seen so little of the short program.

 

And then the question becomes, when does he add it to his FS?

[MarthEmblem]

11 minutes ago, Blackberry said:

I say ACI short program, which I realize makes no sense on the one hand, but I think there is a reason that we have seen so little of the short program.

 

And then the question becomes, when does he add it to his FS?

 

Honestly, I highly doubt it'll get added to the FS. Since it was reduced to 4 min, it's already incredibly taxing on the skaters to get all the components in. I couldn't imagine trying to throw Nessie in there

But then again, this is Yuzuru Hanyu we're talking about, and he's Extra™ to the point where it's worrying sometimes so only time can tell 

[Yatagarasu]

7 minutes ago, MarthEmblem said:

 

Honestly, I highly doubt it'll get added to the FS.

He said it'd be the first jumping pass in the FS, where the 4Lo is now.

[MarthEmblem]

13 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

He said it'd be the first jumping pass in the FS, where the 4Lo is now.

 

Wait doesn't that have little-to-no set-up? Because good lord I'm gonna need some zen 

[Yatagarasu]

2 minutes ago, MarthEmblem said:

Wait doesn't that have little-to-no set-up? Because good lord I'm gonna need some zen 

Yes but I'm sure it's all adjusted for the switch too, and probably one of the reasons why he may stretch the introduction of it. He's not going to want a set up of two laps around the rink. He'll go for as short as possible, so to speak.

 

But it won't be the SP because, his words aside, it makes no sense to do so, especially under the new rules, where the BV of the 4A is lowered and the falls really hurt you. A fall would be massively costly and finding himself in something like 3rd group for the FS is no where near ideal. FS is way better for these experiments. 

[MarthEmblem]

20 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

Yes but I'm sure it's all adjusted for the switch too, and probably one of the reasons why he may stretch the introduction of it. He's not going to want a set up of two laps around the rink. He'll go for as short as possible, so to speak.

 

But it won't be the SP because, his words aside, it makes no sense to do so, especially under the new rules, where the BV of the 4A is lowered and the falls really hurt you. A fall would be massively costly and finding himself in something like 3rd group for the FS is no where near ideal. FS is way better for these experiments. 

 

Ah, makes sense

Thank you for explaining!! 

[cirelle]

59 minutes ago, MarthEmblem said:

 

Wait doesn't that have little-to-no set-up? Because good lord I'm gonna need some zen 

 

53 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

Yes but I'm sure it's all adjusted for the switch too, and probably one of the reasons why he may stretch the introduction of it. He's not going to want a set up of two laps around the rink. He'll go for as short as possible, so to speak.

 

But it won't be the SP because, his words aside, it makes no sense to do so, especially under the new rules, where the BV of the 4A is lowered and the falls really hurt you. A fall would be massively costly and finding himself in something like 3rd group for the FS is no where near ideal. FS is way better for these experiments. 

 

I think the no set up jump actually is the 3Lo (third jump) as shown, I don’t think we got to see first two jumps of FS.

[dheu]

I said Rostelecom, but I really wanted to say GPF because I would die of happiness if he managed such a feat at an event I got to see live! 

 

 

[Xen]

9 hours ago, Yatagarasu said:

He said it'd be the first jumping pass in the FS, where the 4Lo is now.

Hmm, if he does that, do you think he'll move 4Lo back into the SP?

SP: 4Lo 3A//4T3T

LP: 4A 4T 3Lo 4S3T//4T1Lo3S 3A2T 3A  I didn't add the 4Lo after the 4T because I do think 4 quads in a row is a bit insane, even for his level of stamina and it's more likely to lead to messy second halfs, so for now, just 4 quads in the long.

 

You know, last season we'd all tear our hair out going crazy over this layout, but this season, we're really zen about it. Kind of "we've seen it all, nothing can surprise us anymore." Guess we're all whipped by now.

[SparkleSalad]

Nearly 2000 views and only over one hundred votes. I see you twittering on Twitter, you lurkerers! Come and vote! 

[cirelle]

For me I think it’s cause the uncertainty is greater this year, counter intuitively. Or maybe just more options? Last year it was ”will he add the lutz or not!!???!!”, very focused. This year, he can announce 2 4As and 4Lo back, or 2 4Los or even actually keep to the layout he has already announced, and it’s maybe not equally probable but I don’t really know how to evaluate the propbabilities so instead I just... wait. 

[Xen]

19 minutes ago, cirelle said:

For me I think it’s cause the uncertainty is greater this year, counter intuitively. Or maybe just more options? Last year it was ”will he add the lutz or not!!???!!”, very focused. This year, he can announce 2 4As and 4Lo back, or 2 4Los or even actually keep to the layout he has already announced, and it’s maybe not equally probable but I don’t really know how to evaluate the propbabilities so instead I just... wait. 

Well the uncertainty isn't really due to him, it's just due to the jump itself. It's never been landed.

 

I think we all figured that the 4Lz was coming, and we were right, because no one bought the last 3Lz jumping pass from the media day run through. So the boy got smarter this year with a) not showing us a run-through in the SP and not showing the full layout for the LP; and b) announcing publically he wants to land the 4A and that it'll likely be first jumping pass. So fans can stop speculating.  Well we're still speculating, but it's not a matter of "if" more a matter of "when."

 

Which is good, because this season, somehow we're calmer than last season with the 4Lz looming. XD We're seriously so accepting of 4A's inevitability than how we approached the 4Lz last season. And should he decide to continue past this season, any mention of Yuzu+4A means he's still at the top in the TES. So long as his TES doesn't fall significantly behind, his GOEs and PCs means all things being equal, it's still a game being played on his terms. This was the issue with Patrick Chan and to an extent, Javi- as BV takes on more importance under the % GOE system, they'd fall too far behind with just 4T and 4S.

 

Lastly, this is possibly wishful thinking on my part. But judges do judge skaters relatively to each other. So long as a clean/cleanish Yuzu is in contention, I think the other guys' PCS might be reined in a bit.

[WinForPooh]

About his 4Lz, we saw it at CoR because he'd crocked his knee well and good before ACI and he changed his entire layout for it. Otherwise we would've seen it at ACi. If he's completely fit and his practices are going well, I honestly expect it for ACi, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the SP because that layout he gave for his SP is complete nonsense, it's going back two seasons and the layout he landed perfectly when his ankle was held together by Kikuchi san's expertise and some bandage. A fit Yuzu telling us we're going to see him do a 4S 3A 4T-3T when he has his 4Lo back? Yeah, not buying that. If he's feeling good, I think he'll go for it. For me it's a question of how exactly is he trolling with that SP layout - is he taking the 4Lo and putting it in there, and changing FS like he said he would? Or is he going to go straight 4A in the SP?

 

ETA: I don't think it'll be later than Helsinki if all goes according to plan. The second GP and GPF are things he needs to win, I don't think we'll be seeing Nessie for the first time at either.

[Xen]

4 minutes ago, WinForPooh said:

About his 4Lz, we saw it at CoR because he'd crocked his knee well and good before ACI and he changed his entire layout for it. Otherwise we would've seen it at ACi. If he's completely fit and his practices are going well, I honestly expect it for ACi, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the SP because that layout he gave for his SP is complete nonsense, it's going back two seasons and the layout he landed perfectly when his ankle was held together by Kikuchi san's expertise and some bandage. A fit Yuzu telling us we're going to see him do a 4S 3A 4T-3T when he has his 4Lo back? Yeah, not buying that. If he's feeling good, I think he'll go for it. For me it's a question of how exactly is he trolling with that SP layout - is he taking the 4Lo and putting it in there, and changing FS like he said he would? Or is he going to go straight 4A in the SP?

Yata is correct that it's safer points wise for him to go for broke in the FS rather than the SP.

I would say if he does bring the 4A for LP, the 4Lo is going to SP, so SP would be 4Lo 3A//4T3T  because that would fit the rhythm of his SP's so far. And he can fall back on 4S 3A/4T3T if he has issues.  You can't win a competition with a good SP,  but you can lose a competition if you bomb an SP.

4Lo3A/4T3T is good BV for an SP, and all his jumps there can earn high GOEs. So 110+ with spare change is fine and gives him a cushion for the LP.