General Skating Chat

[xeyra]

2 minutes ago, Xen said:

That he'll achieve a +2 min GOE 4 LZ by Oly? That might not be a bad bet.

 

And I almost forgot, depending on how the first GP scores come out and whether the judges will start following rules, and start enforcing edges and URs etc, there's also a possiblity that his GOEs could go up. And other skaters have lower PCS if they don't skate clean. Yes, we've all been pessimistic about his scores at Helsenki, but let's not fully rule out this either. If there are stricter enforcements of tech stuff, JSF might end up throwing weight a bit more behind Yuzu (if they were so wise-a girl can hope right), and who knows, a story about a first asian back to back OGM might be considered good publicity for the Olympics. We haven't had back to backs for so long. 

 

For all the crying about his underscoring in Helsinki, he'd still win against others with higher BV if they got the GOEs they got this season.  Imagine what he can achieve with a 110+ SP. 

[Xen]

3 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

 

Oh, I think that 6-quad option is more likely for Nathan too. I was going by the highest BV for him for comparison purposes. Revising the table to meet your options:

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	154.44	177.68	332.12	Chopin 3.0 SP + unchanged FS layout
	160.84	177.68	338.52	Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz
UNO	158.65	166.39	325.04	SP + WTT 2017 layout
	164.43	166.39	330.82	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lz
CHEN	170.25	151.83	322.08	SP + 6-quad layout
	175.19	151.83	327.02	SP + Possible 7-quad layout
FERNANDEZ	150.43	172.20	322.63	SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lo
CHAN	150.33	167.33	317.66	SP + 4-quad layout with 4F
JIN	165.43	150.02	315.45	SP + 5-quad layout with 4Lo and 2x 4Lz

 

 

We should dub this chart the "chart of reality". And hold fast to it for the rest of the season.

[fluffypooh]

18 minutes ago, xeyra said:

And how about this: 

 

SKATER	TOTAL LAYOUT BV	BEST TOTAL GOE+PCS	SPECULATIVE TOTAL SP+FS	NOTES
HANYU	160.84	177.68	338.52	Chopin 3.0 SP + 4-quad layout with 4Lz

 

Of course, this would require him to have a +2 GOE 4Lz by Olys. 

If he decides to put it in the program, I am sure he is confident that he can get +2 or +3 

[xeyra]

Just now, Xen said:

We should dub this chart the "chart of reality". And hold fast to it for the rest of the season.

 

 This is where we must be cautious, though, because if Nathan works on perfecting a 6-quad layout instead of going for 7, he might actually start working on getting those GOEs up. Shoma's PCS will also rise now he's no longer just in Yuzu's shadow but a true contender, though a 4Lz in his FS might bring him as many issues as one in Yuzu's layout. Then again, I see Yuzu more likely to pop his 4Lz and Shoma flutzing and underrotating his. I don't know who'd have better BV on their failed 4Lz then. 

[Xen]

Just now, xeyra said:

 

 This is where we must be cautious, though, because if Nathan works on perfecting a 6-quad layout instead of going for 7, he might actually start working on getting those GOEs up. Shoma's PCS will also rise now he's no longer just in Yuzu's shadow but a true contender, though a 4Lz in his FS might bring him as many issues as one in Yuzu's layout. Then again, I see Yuzu more likely to pop his 4Lz and Shoma flutzing and underrotating his. I don't know who'd have better BV on their failed 4Lz then. 

Well, if Yuzu pops, he'll probably yolo a 3 quad back half program a la WTT style. And we are talking about the guy who got a positive GOE on his popped Axel...I actually could imagine Shoma UR and step out of the lutz, which is doubly bad....

[AsteroidB-612]

33 minutes ago, Xen said:

Hanyu fans are such worryworts. 

Somebody called? 

Lol but tbh I think when we adore a person who loves to analyze himself so much (Mr. I love math Yuzu ehem ), overthinking is a common trait  among fans haha 

 

That said, I agree that Yuzu will probably not go with layout 1...but if he can't stabilize his 4lz, he might go with layout 2 with the 5 quad but no 4lz? That will raise his bv by 1 pt only though...

 

But shoma might not have the 4Lz too, so if he goes for his layout 1...that will make their BV almost equal at 158 ish... which still could be a close call if it's down to the judges cuz I think shoma's PCS will rise... And maybe his GOE will too if he works on his current jumps.

 

I agree with the Nathan 6 quad, and probably go with layout 2 backloading some jumps if he stays at 6 quads...so that puts him down by 5 pt but keep in mind his PCS and GOE can rise too

 

So I think Yuzu is looking at maybe a 5~10 pt lead if he doesn't have a 4lz?..that probably means he can have room to make only 1 small mistake if he hope to win if Nathan or Shoma are clean?

 

Edit: the "chart of reality" above lay things out better than I said here,once again, thanks @xeyra !

[xeyra]

4 minutes ago, Xen said:

Well, if Yuzu pops, he'll probably yolo a 3 quad back half program a la WTT style. And we are talking about the guy who got a positive GOE on his popped Axel...I actually could imagine Shoma UR and step out of the lutz, which is doubly bad....

 

1Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 4Lz - 104.07. 

 

BTW, an underrotated 4Lz(e) is worth 8.40 BV + -4 GOE = 4.40. 

A 1Lz is worth 0.60. He'd need to pop it into a triple like Patrick or Javi. No more singles! 

[AsteroidB-612]

5 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

1Lz 4Lo 3F // 4S3T 4T 3A2T 4T1Lo3S 4Lz - 104.07. 

 

BTW, an underrotated 4Lz(e) is worth 8.40 BV + -4 GOE = 4.40. 

A 1Lz is worth 0.60. He'd need to pop it into a triple like Patrick or Javi. No more singles! 

Lol i love how we are even taking into consideration the popping  

No more being a popstar this season, Mr.Hanyu!!

[xeyra]

Just now, AsteroidB-612 said:

Lol i love how we are even taking into consideration the popping  

No more being a popstar this season, Mr.Hanyu!!

 

If you gotta be something, be a rockstar. 

[Lunna]

2 часа назад, AsteroidB-612 сказал:

So most of you are saying that if Yuzu is clean for both SP and FS then there is no way he will loose? But what about what happened to Yuna Kim in Sochi? I didnt study her and Adelina's protocol... But to my understanding Yuna did well for both program, was the queen coming into the event yet still lost against politicking?

It wasn't only politicking. Adelina truly had a skate of her life there, she had higher BV and always had good PCS too, so in my opinion she deserved that gold. Of course the place of Games helped the case.

For now I'll just wait what Yuzu will bring in his FS. Bringing in 4Lz will depend on the training and his feeling of the jump I think.

[fluffypooh]

9 minutes ago, AsteroidB-612 said:

Lol i love how we are even taking into consideration the popping  

No more being a popstar this season, Mr.Hanyu!!

 

We worry so much cuz we know that Yuzu won't be happy with anything less than gold medal. I wonder how long would it take Yuzu to stabilize his 4Lz, hope it won't be like his 4Lo, please no popping ...

[xeyra]

12 minutes ago, fluffypooh said:

 

We worry so much cuz we know that Yuzu won't be happy with anything less than gold medal. I wonder how long would it take Yuzu to stabilize his 4Lz, hope it won't be like his 4Lo, please no popping ...

 

His 4Lo sort of stabilized quickly in a way. Took him one season for a 2.43 GOE 4Lo and he landed rather a good amount of them more than he fell/popped/UR'ed. SP issues notwithstanding. He'd been trying it out for a while in shows, though. His 4S seems to have taken longer. 

[AsteroidB-612]

2 minutes ago, xeyra said:

 

His 4Lo sort of stabilized quickly in a way. Took him one season for a 2.43 GOE 4Lo and he landed rather a good amount of them more than he fell/popped/UR'ed. SP issues notwithstanding. He'd been trying it out for a while in shows, though. His 4S seems to have taken longer. 

But I think his 4Lo in the beginning of last season was in a better position than his 4Lz right now? (Even though he did have to relearn all his jumps due to his injury *sob), but since he landed many 4Lo during ice shows and practices even 2 years before and there were talk of it maybe being in the layout even for the 15-16 season ? And so far we have only seen him with 1 4Lz landed...and it was a saved landing too...but I guess we can never underestimate out space kitten too...it's sense not age when it comes to jumps!

 

And the 4s.. ...took him long alright...and just when we think it becomes reliable..you put it in a combo and pop it goes!lol

[xeyra]

2 minutes ago, AsteroidB-612 said:

But I think his 4Lo in the beginning of last season was in a better position than his 4Lz right now? (Even though he did have to relearn all his jumps due to his injury *sob), but since he landed many 4Lo during ice shows and practices even 2 years before and there were talk of it maybe being in the layout even for the 15-16 season ? And so far we have only seen him with 1 4Lz landed...and it was a saved landing too...but I guess we can never underestimate out space kitten too...it's sense not age when it comes to jumps!

 

And the 4s.. ...took him long alright...and just when we think it becomes reliable..you put it in a combo and pop it goes!lol

 

He did land a few more at FaOI practices. Not many, but some. Also apparently his 4Lo was around 60% success rate at the beginning of the season. If he gets the 4Lz like that, who knows if he'll think it's enough. It is Olympic season, after all. He can't really experiment with the 4Lz like he did with the 4Lo last season. But this is also why he's doing Chopin with 4T3T. So he has a margin for that experimentation. 

[yuzuangel]

I edited the thread a bit to say "competition chances" since there's a lot of "olympic chances" type of speculation that goes on, including PR, federations, olympic stress, etc. just to make it a bit more clear