General Yuzuru Chat

[Sombreuil]

[Fresca]

6 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

How artistically complex a program is, is not what is going to win the day here so the argument that Chopin is more artistically complex (which by the way just invites subjectivity so I'm not going to get into that argument as ten people will have ten differing opinions, especially when you compare something so vastly different as LGC and Chopin; I've seen plenty of counter arguments for Chopin, some of which I can even somewhat agree with starting just with the music cut) is not really of ultimate or even high importance. 

 

As a dancer, I'd love to see those arguments and how movement to LGC is more artistically complex than movement to Chopin.

[Yatagarasu]

5 minutes ago, Fresca said:

 

As a dancer, I'd love to see those arguments and how movement to LGC is more artistically complex than movement to Chopin.

 

To clarify, I didn't mean there that LGC is more artistically complex than Chopin as I've never seen them even compared, clumsy wording on my part; I mean there are plenty of counter-arguments for Chopin itself being something special, whether you or I or anyone may agree with that or not. 

 

And skating is not dance. It's not judged as dance. Which is why you will find plenty of programs that are not exceptional artistically, that the majority of us could easily agree on, with high marks in CO, IN and PE. Just this season alone, never mind overall. 

[fluffypooh]

I wonder if yuzu does get 4Lz it will be mores stable than 4Lo since it is a toe jump and is less dependable to ice condition? and isn't lutz his favorite jump besides axel? that's why he puts it as the last jump, and in previous years he only had problem becuz stamina. when we talk about how safe his 4Lo is, he still can't get it at his first two shows

[meoima]

1 hour ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

No, it's really not though. a 4Lz+4F3T or a 4Lo+4F3T or a 4Lo + 4Lz3T is a bigger difference to Yuzuru's 4Lo+4T3T than what you are mentioning, especially in an enviorment where the young guns are being pushed forward, and there is already an atmosphere of 'he's old'. 

And then, to top it off, it's in a three-peat of a program. 

 

I have no issues with him dumping the 4S-3T, I've been advocating for that since last season. I also see no problems with using 4T-3T in its place, especially in the second half of the program. But coupled with the 4Lo, coupled with a program repeated for the third time and coupled with what the other men are doing, yes, it does represent a step backwards. And I think that's actually all right, if it provides him with the safety of an SP he can deliver cleanly and raise his overall chances of success. He's accepting the risks with that and it is what it is then.

It's not that much of a difference if you can't deliver. Judges have a certain celling for artistry and consistency. If Yuzuru can skate well the current layout with 4lo// 3A and 4T3T, I am sure they will put him on top no matter what. Because let me tell you frankly, after WC, judges do know and do accept Yuzuru as the No.1

 

Most judges don't care if you repeat the same program for 3 seasons. Ask Sasha Cohen, Irina Slutkaya, Plushenko and all... they all used old programs for years.

Do you really think judges care if a top skater repeat a program? Most of the time they don't. 80% judges don't go to twitter and forum. I asked a Russian judge and she laughed and said: "We don't really mind, darling!" 

 

And I am sure they will just close up the scores no matter what, even if Yuzuru skates cleanly with consistency or go with much higher tech, they will just give out candies for others. The point of other men getting higher scores due to BV only means that Yuzuru for now has less rook for mistakes. That's all. 

 

Whether Yuzuru will bring 4lz to SP, it depends on if he can master spread eagle 4lz spread eagle in 3 months asap. But it is not like he must add 4lz to the SP. In fact he doesn't have to "must". The 4lz in SP only brings around 1.5 points higher and much bigger risk. Does it worth it if he brings an unstable 4Lz in? 

If his 4lz can be consistent, he will put it in. If not, then he will only do it in LP. It's still ok. The point for him now is to skate well SP and keep his status in the judges' eyes. That's it. 

 

After 4CC people were like: "Hanyu must bring 4lz and 5 quads to WC now". Did he? He did not and still won with an invalid combo in the SP, with massive inflation for Shoma and Javi. 

That's the status of the champion, he does NOT have to follow the trend and ditches the quality. If he just brings a poor 4lz to competition and let it affect other jumps, it is even worse. And it makes people feel like he is panicking. While in reality he should be calm and do whatever he is good at. That's the whole point of skating as a champion. You do not run after the trend. You do well what you have and win with it. 

 

And please stop acting like all men will skate clean, because they won't. Adding a new quad into the SP is risky and it gives you big chance ro make mistakes in other jumps. Take Shoma for example, I don't think he will skate well his SP this season with a new quad and new combo in the second half. 

 

You don't forget how huge pressure at the Olympic can be. There is a reason why Kulik watered down his program and won, Yagudin watered down his layout and won, Yuna watered down her layout and won, Plushenko also watered down his layout and won. 

[kamotejojo]

I might get kicked out from this thread for being super , anyone care for coffee?

Not exactly Yuzu fanart, so general it is!

[xeyra]

Because a little math always helps things, I decided to take up the NHK 2015 Chopin performance as a basis, as it was the first time he used 4T3T, it was mid season and no one was throwing GOE and PCS candies around, then added in the GOEs that Yuzu got this season for 4Lo and spins (from GPF or Worlds), as well as the PCS from GPF 2016, the closest he got to clean last season. Also, a reasonably low 3A SP score.

 

I also used the GOE he got back in NHK 2015 for his Chopin Step Sequence.

 

This was the result

 

It's not 115, indeed, but it's not TOO bad. 

 

Edit:

Comparison while using NHK 2015 PCS and GPF 2016 PCS

 

[Yatagarasu]

22 minutes ago, meoima said:

It's not that much of a difference if you can't deliver. Judges have a certain celling for artistry and consistency. 

But most judges don't care if you repeat the same program for 3 seasons. Ask Sasha Cohen, Irina Slutkaya, Plushenko and all... they all used old programs for years Do you really think judges care if a top skater repeat a program? Most of the time they don't. 80% judges don't go to twitter and forum. I asked a Russian judge and she laughed and said: "We don't really mind, darling!" 

And I am sure they will just close up the score no matter what, even if Yuzuru skates cleanly with consistency or go with much higher tech, they will just give out candies for others. 

Whether Yuzuru will bring 4lz to SP is unsure, it depends on if he can master spread eagle 4lz spread eagle in 3 months asap. But it is not like he must add 4lz to the SP. In fact he doesn't have to. If he can skate well the current layout with 4lo// 3A and 4T3T, I am sure they will put him on top no matter what. 

If his 4lz can be consistent, he will put it in. If not, then he will only do it in LP. It's still ok.

Because let me tell you frankly, judges do know and do accept Yuzuru now as the No.1 

The point for him now is to skate well SP and keep his status in the judges' eyes. That's it. 

And please stop acting like all men will skate clean, because they won't. Adding a new quad into the SP is risky and it gives you big chance ro make mistakes in other jumps. Take Shoma for example, I don't think he will skate well his SP this season with a new quad and new combo in the second half. 

You don't get how huge pressure at the Olympic can be. There is a reas why Kulik watered down his program and won, Yagudin watered down his layout and won, Yuna watered down her layout and won, Plushenko also watered down his layout and won. 

 

Yes, they will give out candies to others, who have higher BV in the first place. That's kind of my point. 
I'm glad you're sure that they are going to put Yuzuru on top with a 4Lo / 3A, 4T-3T and that's your prerogative, but it is also mine to doubt that, if for example Shoma skates his Vivaldi layout cleanly, especially with a potential shift of the combination. You have no idea how he will skate it when the Olympics come, and he is a threat; to pretend otherwise is disingenuous. 

 

Actually, I am not saying that at all. 

This is a discussion and there is a chance that one to several men are going to be clean too in the SP. You absolutely cannot categorically claim that they won't. It's not possible as there is no "prophecy" or "dreaming" or whatever. They may all completely splat and Yuzuru might go clean and stand on top with a 10+ point difference even with a 4Lo. They may all go clean and then we'll see how that goes. More than likely, it will fall somewhere in between and some will go clean while some may not. There is also no guarantee that Yuzuru will be one of those who is going to go clean in that case either. A freak slip of the blade like in WTT, and pop goes the 4Lo (throwing salt at that, because poo poo).

Which is why we throw around the ifs here and talk about it.

 

I do also get how huge a pressure the Olympics are. I've been around for good, long time and I'm not deficient in the intelligence department. 

 

Which again, for the n-th time, I can understand being conservative in the SP, with a corker of an FS, in hope that this is what is going to ultimately sway the pendulum onto his side if he can establish consistency throughout the season and go clean in the Olympics. But pretending this strategy doesn't have risks too is pointless to me, when I can see them quite clearly. 

 

And yes, some did water down and it paid off for them, Lysacek the number one of all of those.

And then some ended up like Patrick Chan, who underestimated Yuzuru and that was the nail in that coffin. I simply refuse to underestimate the other men in this field. We'll simply agree to disagree on that one. I respect your opinion, even though we do fundamentally differ in some things, please do me the courtesy of respecting mine.

[randomanon]

2 minutes ago, xeyra said:

Because a little math always helps things, I decided to take up the NHK 2015 Chopin performance as a basis, as it was the first time he used 4T3T, it was mid season and no one was throwing GOE and PCS candies around, then added in the GOEs that Yuzu got this season for 4Lo and spins (from Worlds), as well as the PCS from GPF 2016, the closest he got to clean this season. Also, a reasonably low 3A SP score he got last season, just to make it even more underscored.

 

I also used the GOE he got back in NHK 2015 for his Chopin Step Sequence.

 

This was the result

 

It's not 115, indeed, but it's not TOO bad. 

 

 

 

yeh not too bad :// could be much higher tho?? I mean like anything that's barely scraping over 110 is kind of low...  

[Fresca]

27 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

I mean there are plenty of counter-arguments for Chopin itself being something special, whether you or I or anyone may agree with that or not.

 

I'd still love to see those arguments to see what they are characterising about it as "average". Is it the choreography? The tech? The execution? The music?

[kaeryth]

Imagine if he was just trolling and using Chopin to gain confidence/consistency in the SP while it's still off season. I mean he's basically skating an entire SP (quads and all) for his entire summer show (if that is his plan). And then comes up with an entirely new SP.

 

Either way, I do think it's not yet set and that he's still feeling things out but at the same time he wants to get a head start in training for the SP. The fact that there's no actual confirmation from him and that he's being vague makes me think that he's also debating and taking in every consideration.

 

I do find it funny that Chopin is so contradictory: some find it as playing safe and others find it risky. Right now, my head hurts thinking about it so I'll just wait for his final decision on the matter and just try to enjoy the off season while worrying about how expensive going to Milan will be. hahaha

 

[xeyra]

Just now, randomanon said:

 

yeh not too bad :// could be much higher tho?? I mean like anything that's barely scraping over 110 is kind of low...  

 

It is and can be much higher. But if we're going by the argument that Chopin 3.0 might make the judges more conservative with its scoring because of the repetition or lower tech, I was wondering how much a clean performance might eventually be underscored. Even with lower GOEs than his record score, it can still feasibly surpass 110.95. Not by much, yes, but a clean Chopin 3.0 can't be much underscored, unless he starts suddenly getting +1 GOE only for most of his jumps. 

[Murieleirum]

3 minutes ago, xeyra said:

Because a little math always helps things, I decided to take up the NHK 2015 Chopin performance as a basis, as it was the first time he used 4T3T, it was mid season and no one was throwing GOE and PCS candies around, then added in the GOEs that Yuzu got this season for 4Lo and spins (from Worlds), as well as the PCS from GPF 2016, the closest he got to clean this season. Also, a reasonably low 3A SP score he got last season, just to make it even more underscored.

 

I also used the GOE he got back in NHK 2015 for his Chopin Step Sequence.

 

This was the result

 

It's not 115, indeed, but it's not TOO bad. 

 

 

 

Not bad at all! 

And I do think that he would get +3 GOE's if he managed to skate the SP clean for 3, 4 times in a row. Which is what he did with PW, and why he managed to break world record after world record. My guess is that your calculations could be a very realistic first time, or second time clean skate for next season :)

[xeyra]

7 hours ago, Murieleirum said:

 

Not bad at all! 

And I do think that he would get +3 GOE's if he managed to skate the SP clean for 3, 4 times in a row. Which is what he did with PW, and why he managed to break world record after world record. My guess is that your calculations could be a very realistic first time, or second time clean skate for next season :)

 

I feel like a range of 109-111 on his SP might be a good one to consider feasible and obtainable with the new Chopin. 

 

By the way, the same calculations using a 4Lz with 0 or 1 GOE give a lower/similar score than the version with a 2.43 GOE 4Lo.

[meoima]

23 minutes ago, Yatagarasu said:

 

Yes, they will give out candies to others, who have higher BV in the first place. That's kind of my point. 
I'm glad you're sure that they are going to put Yuzuru on top with a 4Lo / 3A, 4T-3T and that's your prerogative, but it is also mine to doubt that, if for example Shoma skates his Vivaldi layout cleanly, especially with a potential shift of the combination. You have no idea how he will skate it when the Olympics come, and he is a threat; to pretend otherwise is disingenuous. 

 

Actually, I am not saying that at all. 

This is a discussion and there is a chance that one to several men are going to be clean too in the SP. You absolutely cannot categorically claim that they won't. It's not possible as there is no "prophecy" or "dreaming" or whatever. They may all completely splat and Yuzuru might go clean and stand on top with a 10+ point difference even with a 4Lo. They may all go clean and then we'll see how that goes. More than likely, it will fall somewhere in between and some will go clean while some may not. There is also no guarantee that Yuzuru will be one of those who is going to go clean in that case either.

Which is why we throw around the ifs here and talk about it.

 

I do also get how huge a pressure the Olympics are. I've been around for good, long time and I'm not deficient in the intelligence department. 

 

Which again, for the n-th time, I can understand being conservative in the SP, with a corker of an FS, in hope that this is what is going to ultimately sway the pendulum onto his side if he can establish consistency throughout the season and go clean in the Olympics. But pretending this strategy doesn't have risks too is pointless to me, when I can see them quite clearly. 

 

And yes, some did water down and it paid off for them, Lysacek the number one of all of those.

And then some ended up like Patrick Chan, who underestimated Yuzuru and that was the nail in that coffin. I simply refuse to underestimate the other men in this field. We'll simply agree to disagree on that one. I respect your opinion, even though we do fundamentally differ in some things, please do me the courtesy to respect mine.

For the nth time, don't act like all the men will skate clean at the Olympic. Because they won't.

For the second nth time, Shoma won't be consistent with a new quad and new combo in the second half. And I am saying this not because of some prophecy or dreaming. It's based on reality. There is one reason why Yuzuru has to do 4lo in the SP last season. And he was correct.

for the third nth time, Patrick Chan DID NOT underestimate Yuzuru. His strategy was correct to stay with what he could do best at that very moment (go clean with 2 quad toe). It's his messing up the 3A in SP and the whole LP that sealed the deal. Had Patrick skated clean his SP at Sochi, he could have gotten 102 or even 103. And his Lp might have broken 200 points there had he gone clean. So, no, Patrick chose the correct strategy for his ability at that time. What killed him was that he messed even worse than Yuzuru. 

 

If you actually do some math you will see that the difference in BV isn't that huge. Look at this Chopin BV

4Lo 4S3T // 3A - 49.75 BV (2016-2017 layout)

4Lo // 3A 4T3T - 51.01 BV (as attempted at FaOI)

4Lz // 3A 4T3T - 52.61 BV

In reality, adding a 4lz will only upgrade his BV To 1.5 point, but there is no guarantee he will land the 4lz right there consistently for the whole season. If he mess it up, fall or something (and we don't take into the account of pop jumps), he will not just lose - 4 points in GOE for a fall quad and -1 point in PCS, other elements will be lowered too due to a fall, so in total, putting a risky jump in might result in losing up to 8 points overall in both GOE and PCS. 

 

Let's look at the other guys layouts: 

Nathan's SP: 4Lz3T 4F // 3A - 53.15 BV

Shoma's SP: 4Lo 4F3T // 3A - 51.55 BV

Boyang's SP: 4Lz3T 3A // 4T - 51.33 BV

 

Even if they go clean and judges throw candies at them, I highly doubt they can get over a clean Yuzuru. Frankly, quality of skating and jumps can not be improved in just one summer. Judges might want to give +2 and +3 to everyone, but there is a limit they can do if the quality is just that. You saw at WC 2017, they didn't give Yuzuru +3, but it doesn't matter when everything he does has much better quality than the rest. So underscored and he still won. Because that's why we have math before us.